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2023 Trade Deadline Thread
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Post by incandenza on Aug 2, 2023 11:51:27 GMT -5
Couldn't agree more. At the very least he could have unloaded some of the older players on the team to make space for younger players. Keeping Duval when you have Rafaela lighting up AAA and guys in Duran/Verdugo who need to be playing everyday makes no sense. He's also a FA after the season and won't be brought back. As good as Justin Turner has been offensively, he's a 38 yr old DH who is going to opt out after the season. Trading him would have allowed you to move Yoshida to DH and bring up Rafaella to play CF. (Duran in LF) You also would have likely got a nice piece back for Turner in the trade. Paxton would have likely brought back the most given the shortage of frontline pitching and will be 35 when he hits the market after the season. Add in how injury prone he is, the fact that he was healthy heading into the trade deadline presented a great opportunity to cash in on the market. It's very very unlikely he'd get a QO after the season so he'll almost certainly walk for nothing. Bloom had plenty of chips to cash in and managed to whiff on all of them. Exactly this is all my point. Saying doing nothing was the right move seems silly. That’s implying Bloom believe this team is set as is, which would be odd considering we don’t hold a playoff spot through 100+ games Guys, go ahead and disagree with Bloom's approach if you like, but the logic of his approach is not that difficult to follow. The team is good enough to have a shot at the playoffs (and should get better with the return of Story, Sale, etc.) so it makes no sense to sell off , but is not in such a strong position that it's worth expending significant future value for. It's what most teams do in a similar position at the trade deadline. Acting like he's somehow being inexplicably irrational is making you look a bit ridiculous. |
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Aug 2, 2023 11:53:03 GMT -5
I’m trying to wrap my head around this being the #3 system in baseball. Is that true? How is that possible? It is decent, but… Theres a ton of high end talent (Meyer/Anthony/Bleis/Rafaela/etc) plus a bunch of guys who look a good bet to turn into useful MLB pieces—a potential 7th inning reliever, for example, doesn’t sound like a particularly exciting prospect, but if you can get two or three 1ish-WAR relievers from the farm for the league minimum, that saves you a ton of money that you can reinvest elsewhere. If you have enough arms that can throw 98 with decent command in the system, you’ve got a good chance of getting at least a couple of those guys. That type of prospect may not be very valuable on their own, but if you get enough of them it adds up. Basically, ownership targeted Bloom because the pitching development machine he built in Tampa is the best in the business, and after a few tough years it looks like it’s paying dividends in Boston. Combine that with the impact hitting talent they’ve added through the years, and you get a lot of value. It's interesting but it's attempting to make an inherently qualitative assessment quantitative, which doesn't really work as a scientific exercise. www.fangraphs.com/prospects/farm-system-rankingsIt assigns value to players based on the FV grade Longenhagen gives them. But the thing is he doesn't even rank the same number of players from each team. So the number of guys he gives grades affects the total dollar value. It's interesting and good for a very rough feel for how good a system is, but I wouldn't swear by it. |
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Post by Guidas on Aug 2, 2023 12:03:32 GMT -5
I’m trying to wrap my head around this being the #3 system in baseball. Is that true? How is that possible? It is decent, but… Theres a ton of high end talent (Meyer/ Anthony/Bleis/Rafaela/etc) plus a bunch of guys who look a good bet to turn into useful MLB pieces—a potential 7th inning reliever, for example, doesn’t sound like a particularly exciting prospect, but if you can get two or three 1ish-WAR relievers from the farm for the league minimum, that saves you a ton of money that you can reinvest elsewhere. If you have enough arms that can throw 98 with decent command in the system, you’ve got a good chance of getting at least a couple of those guys. That type of prospect may not be very valuable on their own, but if you get enough of them it adds up. Basically, ownership targeted Bloom because the pitching development machine he built in Tampa is the best in the business, and after a few tough years it looks like it’s paying dividends in Boston. Combine that with the impact hitting talent they’ve added through the years, and you get a lot of value. I think it's a system full of Projectible Talent, but it's still light on the all-important "Near MLB Talent. The two bolded above are good examples of the Projectible Talent, as they've not seen advanced pitching yet - and Bleis has just lost a full year of development. The only Near MLB Talent is Rafaela, who may be up in Sept (although they already have too many outfielders) or, if not traded in the off-season, get a shot out of Spring Training. Mayer looks like he's not a starter until prob 2025, and most of the rest are 2026-2027 at the earliest. So it's bottom/middle heavy right now with a lot to dream on. And it's just one ranking. I think Law has them in the middle and MLB around 10. It's all so subjective. The big caveat: we all know all these guys won't be average MLB players or better. The leap to MLB from AAA has gotten much steeper and higher. It will be interesting to see which ones out of the top 5 or 10 the Front Office sells high on and which they keep. |
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Post by incandenza on Aug 2, 2023 12:05:27 GMT -5
The most frustrating part of the Bloom-era so far is that the org seems perfectly okay as an ~85 win team and trying to sneak into the wild card. Other than the Schwarber addition Bloom really has not made any moves to push chips into the middle, but he also hasn't really sold off any major pieces. Operating in that middle ground where the team isn't good enough to really invest in, but they aren't bad enough to sell, is really not fun. It just leaves you hoping that Verdugo/Casas/Duran/Whitlock/Houck/Wong/etc. are all better players than they have shown. You want Casas and Duran to play better? Excuse me, but what?? Also, I hardly remember the reaction to the Schwarber trade at the time being significant enough that anyone here or elsewhere thought he was pushing his chips to the middle. That’s a little bit of revisionist history. It was more like, “Oh, well, I guess Schwarber was a last minute plan B since we didn’t get Rizzo. Oh, he’ll be hurt for a little while? That sucks. We need help now! We’re not having a good month. Ugh. Wait, where is he going to play? There’s no room for him. First base? Uhhh ok. At least we only gave up Aldo Ramirez. Hope it works out.” Well I for one thought Schwarber was a fantastic addition, and a better one than Rizzo, and was apoplectic about that rersponse you describe because it looked like an incredible coup the day it happened and turned out even better than I could have hoped for.
By the way, this whole "Bloom doesn't know how to capitalize on assets" line seems to be ignoring the fact he got Schwarber for Aldo Ramirez. Not to mention Nick Pivetta for Brandon Workman! (I would even mention that the team has solid starters at LF and C, under control for a combined 11 years, which came as a return for one player's covid year season, but why don't we just avoid going there...)
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Post by redsox56 on Aug 2, 2023 12:06:39 GMT -5
Dallas Keuchel opted out of his Twins contract. I wonder if the Sox pick him up soon for the next 3 weeks. That could be their starting rotation move they make to fill in until everyone comes back.
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Post by manfred on Aug 2, 2023 12:13:14 GMT -5
Dallas Keuchel opted out of his Twins contract. I wonder if the Sox pick him up soon for the next 3 weeks. That could be their starting rotation move they make to fill in until everyone comes back. I hope not. Last I saw him, he was toast. |
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Post by Guidas on Aug 2, 2023 12:16:51 GMT -5
You want Casas and Duran to play better? Excuse me, but what?? Also, I hardly remember the reaction to the Schwarber trade at the time being significant enough that anyone here or elsewhere thought he was pushing his chips to the middle. That’s a little bit of revisionist history. It was more like, “Oh, well, I guess Schwarber was a last minute plan B since we didn’t get Rizzo. Oh, he’ll be hurt for a little while? That sucks. We need help now! We’re not having a good month. Ugh. Wait, where is he going to play? There’s no room for him. First base? Uhhh ok. At least we only gave up Aldo Ramirez. Hope it works out.” Well I for one thought Schwarber was a fantastic addition, and a better one than Rizzo, and was apoplectic about that rersponse you describe because it looked like an incredible coup the day it happened and turned out even better than I could have hoped for. By the way, this whole "Bloom doesn't know how to capitalize on assets" line seems to be ignoring the fact he got Schwarber for Aldo Ramirez. Not to mention Nick Pivetta for Brandon Workman! (I would even mention that the team has solid starters at LF and C, under control for a combined 11 years, which came as a return for one player's covid year season, but why don't we just avoid going there...)
These were good deals (though they let Schwarber walk, which seemed odd for a guy who thrived in Boston), but anyone can play this game with Heads of Baseball Ops. They all have their gems and stinkers (Who'd he get for Springs, again?). I think what will be more interesting is what he does with the current Top 10 in the system (or even Top 15). Three or 4 of those guys may become MLB regulars. The rest? Who knows, but their perceived value is high right now. People keep referencing the Rays and "why Bloom was brought here," well, the Rays' current roster was created predominantly through trades, many involving some of their higher rated prospects. Knowing who to keep and who to deal when their value is at its zenith is one of the hardest things in talent evaluation. But "winning" those trades more often than not is a differentiator. |
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Post by scottysmalls on Aug 2, 2023 12:17:15 GMT -5
Theres a ton of high end talent (Meyer/Anthony/Bleis/Rafaela/etc) plus a bunch of guys who look a good bet to turn into useful MLB pieces—a potential 7th inning reliever, for example, doesn’t sound like a particularly exciting prospect, but if you can get two or three 1ish-WAR relievers from the farm for the league minimum, that saves you a ton of money that you can reinvest elsewhere. If you have enough arms that can throw 98 with decent command in the system, you’ve got a good chance of getting at least a couple of those guys. That type of prospect may not be very valuable on their own, but if you get enough of them it adds up. Basically, ownership targeted Bloom because the pitching development machine he built in Tampa is the best in the business, and after a few tough years it looks like it’s paying dividends in Boston. Combine that with the impact hitting talent they’ve added through the years, and you get a lot of value. It's interesting but it's attempting to make an inherently qualitative assessment quantitative, which doesn't really work as a scientific exercise. www.fangraphs.com/prospects/farm-system-rankingsIt assigns value to players based on the FV grade Longenhagen gives them. But the thing is he doesn't even rank the same number of players from each team. So the number of guys he gives grades affects the total dollar value. It's interesting and good for a very rough feel for how good a system is, but I wouldn't swear by it. I don't think ranking more players is inherently an issue because if a team has more guys to rank that should be reflected. In practice though there's no way he's actually able to know each farm in depth enough to get to that point. The other issue is he obviously can't update all the grades at the same time. For example he just updated the Red Sox prospect list but hasn't updated the White Sox list since December, so at most points in time the rankings are reflecting lists with different amounts of information captured. Also a weird thing that looks like a bug is that for all FV scores hitters are more valuable than pitchers except for 65 where pitchers are more valuable. |
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cdj
Veteran
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Post by cdj on Aug 2, 2023 12:19:10 GMT -5
Dallas Keuchel opted out of his Twins contract. I wonder if the Sox pick him up soon for the next 3 weeks. That could be their starting rotation move they make to fill in until everyone comes back. I hope not. Last I saw him, he was toast. He was very toast last year, probably the worst starting pitcher in baseball Weirdly been dominant in AAA this year though. GB rate back up to 60+% too |
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Post by incandenza on Aug 2, 2023 12:20:13 GMT -5
All of this odds nonsense makes my brain hurt. Yesterday the Red Sox made up 40% of their deficit blocking their way to a playoff spot. They are 1.5 games out. Really I think it's a binary decision. Are they legit contenders or are they not?Last year the "odds" were roughly what they are now, but to me it's two very different teams and scenarios. I wanted them to punt last year. I did not feel they were legit contenders, even being just 2.5 games out or whatever it was. I didn't like their direction. I thought the team had too many holes to fix, and they were getting crushed by the caliber of teams they'd be facing in the playoffs. I turned out to be correct in my assessment. I could have just as easily have been wrong, but you cant straddle the fence. You're either on or you're out. You cant be a little prgenant.This year I feel the same decisiveness about the team. I wanted no part of selling. This team is a legit contender. They might beat themselves and find a way to miss the playoffs, but watching this team, they can stand up with the big boys, they have much better talent than last year and it's obvious to me this team has another gear in them they have yet to activate. They may never activate it, but its there and I can see it. I might wind up being wrong, but i dont care what the odds say, they're a contender and while i wouldnt have gone crazy making additions adding a capable starter would have been helpful, to take the pressure off the pen from these bullpen games and hedge their bets in case any of Paxton. Bello, or Sale get injured. But either way, sell on Turner, Paxton, or Duvall? Hell no. The Sox have a playoff spot to chase and as far as I can see this team is a legit contender and should NOT have punted on the season. Quote the odds all you want but make up your own minds to what you're seeing. This really seems like precisely the wrong logic to apply here. It seems very obvious to me that it's not binary at all - some teams are more legit contenders than others. The Braves? Very legit. The Blue Jays? Legit. The Diamondbacks? Sorta, but things would have to break right. The Padres? Well, they face long odds, but they have a lot of talent, so maybe kinda? The Royals? Well, there's your binary outcome - a decided no.
I also think your perpetual frustration with people citing fangraphs playoff odds is misunderstanding what they're saying a little bit. No one takes them that literally; it's just a shorthand for the rough likelihood that they make the playoffs. So if someone says something like "they have a 30% chance of making the playoffs," it might be helpful for you to mentally edit that into a more qualitative statement like "they have a number of good teams ahead of them, which makes their road tough, but they also have enough talent that they have a legitimate chance to make the playoffs."
And one more thing about those playoff odds: yes, the odds were similar last year, and yes, last year's team was worse, but the threshold for making the playoffs was lower, so those things canceled out. I.e., on Aug. 2 last year they had 33% playoff odds with a 53-52 record and were 2 games out of a playoff spot. This year on Aug. 2 they have 30% playoff odds with a 57-50 record and are 1.5 games out of a playoff spot. Better team, but also more good teams, so almost identical chance of making the playoffs.
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Post by awalkinthepark on Aug 2, 2023 12:24:37 GMT -5
The most frustrating part of the Bloom-era so far is that the org seems perfectly okay as an ~85 win team and trying to sneak into the wild card. Other than the Schwarber addition Bloom really has not made any moves to push chips into the middle, but he also hasn't really sold off any major pieces. Operating in that middle ground where the team isn't good enough to really invest in, but they aren't bad enough to sell, is really not fun. It just leaves you hoping that Verdugo/Casas/Duran/Whitlock/Houck/Wong/etc. are all better players than they have shown. You want Casas and Duran to play better? Excuse me, but what?? Also, I hardly remember the reaction to the Schwarber trade at the time being significant enough that anyone here or elsewhere thought he was pushing his chips to the middle. That’s a little bit of revisionist history. It was more like, “Oh, well, I guess Schwarber was a last minute plan B since we didn’t get Rizzo. Oh, he’ll be hurt for a little while? That sucks. We need help now! We’re not having a good month. Ugh. Wait, where is he going to play? There’s no room for him. First base? Uhhh ok. At least we only gave up Aldo Ramirez. Hope it works out.” It's not that I want them to play better. It's that this team needs *someone* to play better if they want to win more games. Casas and Duran have been good this year. But even with them being good the Sox are on pace to win 86 games and would miss the playoffs if the season ended today. A lot of people complain about how WAR isn't everything and it's a flawed stat etc, but the reason WAR is so important is because it correlates really strongly with winning baseball games. Meaning it's hard to win a lot of games if you don't have players that put up a lot of WAR, and it's hard to lose a lot of games if you do have players that put up lot of WAR. Which means if the Red Sox are going to win 90 games instead of 86 games, and Bloom is not adding anyone of significance to the team, the way this team wins 4 extra games is if their current crop of players plays even better than they have (or their injured players come back and perform). Wins come from production, and the current team's production equates to about 86 wins over a whole season. And as for Schwarber, he was definitely an addition to that team. He put up 1.2 fWAR and a 160 wRC+ over the last 2 months of the season. That was a higher wRC+ than Judge over that timeframe. Considering it literally came down to game 162 for that team to make the playoffs, you could make the argument they wouldn't have made it without Schwarber's additional 1.2 wins. |
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Post by chaimtime on Aug 2, 2023 12:29:34 GMT -5
Theres a ton of high end talent (Meyer/Anthony/Bleis/Rafaela/etc) plus a bunch of guys who look a good bet to turn into useful MLB pieces—a potential 7th inning reliever, for example, doesn’t sound like a particularly exciting prospect, but if you can get two or three 1ish-WAR relievers from the farm for the league minimum, that saves you a ton of money that you can reinvest elsewhere. If you have enough arms that can throw 98 with decent command in the system, you’ve got a good chance of getting at least a couple of those guys. That type of prospect may not be very valuable on their own, but if you get enough of them it adds up. Basically, ownership targeted Bloom because the pitching development machine he built in Tampa is the best in the business, and after a few tough years it looks like it’s paying dividends in Boston. Combine that with the impact hitting talent they’ve added through the years, and you get a lot of value. It's interesting but it's attempting to make an inherently qualitative assessment quantitative, which doesn't really work as a scientific exercise. www.fangraphs.com/prospects/farm-system-rankingsIt assigns value to players based on the FV grade Longenhagen gives them. But the thing is he doesn't even rank the same number of players from each team. So the number of guys he gives grades affects the total dollar value. It's interesting and good for a very rough feel for how good a system is, but I wouldn't swear by it. For sure, although I think part of that is about trying to capture the value of depth. There’s value in having more darts to throw, so systems that have more guys they can see being major leaguers deserve a bit of a boost. Obviously that gets into how subjective that is once you get below a certain level of prospect, but I think it’s still useful. I’d imagine teams have much more sophisticated and individualized ways of quantifying it, though. The Fangraphs formula is far from precise, and like Guidas said, there is a big difference between a 55 who’s knocking on the door and a 55 who’s tearing it up in high-A. |
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Post by remmartin34 on Aug 2, 2023 12:41:10 GMT -5
I would love a thread dedicated to tracking the statistics (standard/WAR/etc.) of all the rental pitchers traded at/before this deadline, and stack them up to the numbers (particularly WAR) that Sale/Houck/Pivetta/Whitlock put up for the remainder of the season..
So far on Lucas Giolito (whom the Angels gave up a top-100 prospect and another fringe top-100 for).... 9 IP, 12.00 ERA (not calculating WHIP, BAA, because they are rapidly increasing in his start today)...
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Post by julyanmorley on Aug 2, 2023 12:46:53 GMT -5
I would love a thread dedicated to tracking the statistics (standard/WAR/etc.) of all the rental pitchers traded at/before this deadline, and stack them up to the numbers (particularly WAR) that Sale/Houck/Pivetta/Whitlock put up for the remainder of the season.. So far on Lucas Giolito (whom the Angels gave up a top-100 prospect and another fringe top-100 for).... 9 IP, 12.00 ERA (not calculating WHIP, BAA, because they are rapidly increasing in his start today)... Why do that when we could just pick out the one rental that ends up playing great, ignore the rest, and then lament that we didn't trade for that one? |
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Post by Guidas on Aug 2, 2023 12:50:20 GMT -5
One thing I will say about Mr. Bloom at this deadline is he didn't act like a man who's job was on the line. I don't know if he got assurances from the Big Two™, he's got that much integrity, he's a fatalist or a combination of two or more those.
I have read from several writers how many PBOs/GMs when they believe they're on the hot seat, often try to make the big deal or three that saves the season and sends the team into the playoffs. And if it doesn't work out, well they're going to fire me anyway so...
We know these owners can change their mind with a sunrise (Cherington, Dombrowski), but, at least outwardly, Chaim was working from a position of confidence. FWIW.
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Post by remmartin34 on Aug 2, 2023 12:55:05 GMT -5
I would love a thread dedicated to tracking the statistics (standard/WAR/etc.) of all the rental pitchers traded at/before this deadline, and stack them up to the numbers (particularly WAR) that Sale/Houck/Pivetta/Whitlock put up for the remainder of the season.. So far on Lucas Giolito (whom the Angels gave up a top-100 prospect and another fringe top-100 for).... 9 IP, 12.00 ERA (not calculating WHIP, BAA, because they are rapidly increasing in his start today)... Why do that when we could just pick out the one rental that ends up playing great, ignore the rest, and then lament that we didn't trade for that one? Nahh I like my idea better. But you can go for that, if you think it'll be more fun! |
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Aug 2, 2023 13:01:49 GMT -5
The ERod decline I think is my favorite part of the deadline. How many guys in pro sports turn down the chance to go to one of the best and best run teams in the league which is also in Los Angeles? Especially when the alternative is to stay in Detroit? Not a lot. Detroit is a very underrated city. I went there for the first time last fall and loved it. I’m actually going to try to get out there for a Sox Tigers series one of these years. It’s on a weekend next year so Im going to try to do it. |
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Post by Oregon Norm on Aug 2, 2023 13:03:28 GMT -5
He's the lazy man's Tomase. Is this reporter a drunkard? I’m sure I’m not the only one who thought of this reference after the Bloom “underdog” comment and win tonight… but I can’t imagine, as a supposed professional person who covers the team, actually making the joke publicly on Twitter. (For those who don’t get the reference, Pete Abe is comparing Chaim Bloom to the villainous owner in the movie “Major League” and the scene where they strip a piece of clothing off her nude cutout every time they win a game as motivation.) The standards for online journalism haven't just been lowered, they've cratered. Social media has caused the sort of headline competition we would have gotten from newstands carrying the National Enquirer and the Globe. I've had a wonderful time going through checkout lines and using my old radio voice to read those out loud! Lots of lowered heads and averted eyes (and my wife nudging me over and over again). |
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Post by remmartin34 on Aug 2, 2023 13:13:59 GMT -5
The ERod decline I think is my favorite part of the deadline. How many guys in pro sports turn down the chance to go to one of the best and best run teams in the league which is also in Los Angeles? Especially when the alternative is to stay in Detroit? Not a lot. Detroit is a very underrated city. I went there for the first time last fall and loved it. I’m actually going to try to get out there for a Sox Tigers series one of these years. It’s on a weekend next year so Im going to try to do it. I still want ERod this offseason so badly.. even more so after him declining the Dodgers, because he holds that grudge going back years haha. EL GUALO BABY |
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Post by Oregon Norm on Aug 2, 2023 13:15:30 GMT -5
The troubling thing about the deadline isn't just MLB talent they didn't get (they only didn't add one guy they could have used=SP). Jake Eder and Sean Reynolds were literally a dream type pair for us to get for bats. I would have traded Duggie or Duvall or Dalbec and Blaze Jordan/other prospects for shot at a high upside guy like Eder alone. If he was available, they could have traded for him and then been Ok dealing other top prospects for the pitcher they needed this year to avoid injuring pitchers they have. So they could have taken care of today and tomorrow if the Marlins were game to trade Eder. My sense is either they are not getting enough information on who could be available or they are bad at evaluating it and understanding their long term roster needs. I love that they are deep, and they absolutely should have sold last year to get deeper (which would have helped this year). That cost them a lot and was really an unforgivable type error last year to end up barely over without a team truly capable of making the playoffs. So they doubled down on the mistake last year by then doing nothing this year. They are doing a good job with the Farm. I give them that. But they are going to over-mature guys and turn them into a bag of baseballs value like Bobby D (who deserved better and could be a player on at least 10 MLB teams - agree Rockies should give him a look). It's not good for the players or the system. And if they didn't let Ward get picked for nothing so they could protect Ryan Brasier -- who everyone knew would not last the season -- I would say look at the consistent prioritizing of youth. But when you lose Ward for nothing -- don't tell me you can't trade a guy like Blaze Jordan or Yorke/Meidroth or Bonaci for something of value to the MLB team because they are so valuable. Ward went 1st in the rule 5 draft. They didn't even have a real roster crunch preventing his protection. I guarantee it was about having deep depth and not giving him a spot before maybe he was ready. But Brasier in his last year of arb had a spot so... You have to understand the peaks and valleys of asset values over time and monetize at peaks. I don't see that skillset yet, and Bloom is getting old for that. If he lasts into next year, it should be his last without a President over top of him unless he demonstrates ability to monetize selectively from the Farm successfully. That is more the missing skill here -- not the failure to sign overpriced FAs or to build a strong core. But some guys aren't core, and they should be picked from the farm when ripe and not left to die on the tree. Someone has to tell me why they need any bats at all. Haven't people been looking at what the offense is doing? They've got 6-7 guys carrying OPS+ numbers at or well above 120, and that's before Story returns. Do they not have this deluxe minor league system they've rebuilt? What am I missing here?? As for monetization and asset values, he got Turner at a ridiculous discount, a greatly undervalued Yoshida on a more than reasonable contract - to the likely dismay of the naysayers - and the lineup heavyweights are increasingly effective young guys making peanuts. I'm at a loss... |
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Aug 2, 2023 13:15:49 GMT -5
Pete Abraham also took a shot at ERod for using his no trade clause, which he negotiated for and basically said reflected on his lack of competitiveness. That was unprofessional IMO, and also surprising given what we saw from him
In 2018.
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Post by remmartin34 on Aug 2, 2023 13:24:39 GMT -5
Pete Abraham also took a shot at ERod for using his no trade clause, which he negotiated for and basically said reflected on his lack of competitiveness. That was unprofessional IMO, and also surprising given what we saw from him In 2018. Dude also carried the pitching staff on his back in 2019 with all the injuries and horrendous years that everyone else on that staff put up. Should have had 20 wins, if they didn't completely blow it for him in his final start. Pete Abraham and all those old men can honestly just.... Let's just say it's interesting how many of them have always hated on certain "types" of players... I'll leave it at that. |
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Post by trajanacc on Aug 2, 2023 13:28:02 GMT -5
All of this odds nonsense makes my brain hurt. Yesterday the Red Sox made up 40% of their deficit blocking their way to a playoff spot. They are 1.5 games out. Really I think it's a binary decision. Are they legit contenders or are they not? Last year the "odds" were roughly what they are now, but to me it's two very different teams and scenarios. I wanted them to punt last year. I did not feel they were legit contenders, even being just 2.5 games out or whatever it was. I didn't like their direction. I thought the team had too many holes to fix, and they were getting crushed by the caliber of teams they'd be facing in the playoffs. I turned out to be correct in my assessment. I could have just as easily have been wrong, but you cant straddle the fence. You're either on or you're out. You cant be a little prgenant. This year I feel the same decisiveness about the team. I wanted no part of selling. This team is a legit contender. They might beat themselves and find a way to miss the playoffs, but watching this team, they can stand up with the big boys, they have much better talent than last year and it's obvious to me this team has another gear in them they have yet to activate. They may never activate it, but its there and I can see it. I might wind up being wrong, but i dont care what the odds say, they're a contender and while i wouldnt have gone crazy making additions adding a capable starter would have been helpful, to take the pressure off the pen from these bullpen games and hedge their bets in case any of Paxton. Bello, or Sale get injured. But either way, sell on Turner, Paxton, or Duvall? Hell no. The Sox have a playoff spot to chase and as far as I can see this team is a legit contender and should NOT have punted on the season. Quote the odds all you want but make up your own minds to what you're seeing. This speaks to a lot of the debate on this board. I made up my mind a long time ago that, despite having watched, played, and thought about sports for decades, I would trust the predictive track record of models over whatever my own eyes were telling me. Very few people in the world are better at predicting than the models that these websites or betting markets use. In doing so I think you learn to think probabilistically instead of in binary. It's definitely unnatural for people (seems like "nonsense") unless you have a background in statistics and probability, or have spent a lot of time (and money) gambling on sports as I have. Sports betting in essence is trying to predict the future well enough to eke out a profit--something that anyone who has done it will tell you is very difficult to do. Anyone who has any success doing that longterm is using more math and models and less their own opinions about the strength of the teams and players. I care what the odds say because they are better predictors than you or me. So I want to know what is most likely to happen, even if it contradicts whatever my own biased, non-expert eyes are telling me is true. |
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Post by redsox56 on Aug 2, 2023 13:37:43 GMT -5
I hope not. Last I saw him, he was toast. He was very toast last year, probably the worst starting pitcher in baseball Weirdly been dominant in AAA this year though. GB rate back up to 60+% too Yeah if he has anything left in the tank, we could see it the next 3 weeks. They need a body starting, which they don't have right now. |
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Post by manfred on Aug 2, 2023 13:55:57 GMT -5
I’ve come to see the Sox best move as Bichette getting hurt. Genius. Terrible for Jays, likely the only team the Sox can catch.
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