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2023 Trade Deadline Thread
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Post by scottysmalls on Aug 2, 2023 14:14:24 GMT -5
I’ve come to see the Sox best move as Bichette getting hurt. Genius. Terrible for Jays, likely the only team the Sox can catch. We've been focused on the Blue Jays and Astros but I think the Rangers are more likely to fall out of it than the Astros. Since June 1 the Rangers are 26-26, currently 4 games ahead of the Red Sox. If each team plays at the pace they have since June 1 the rest of the way it'll be a coin flip on who makes it. Obviously the Rangers will likely finish ahead of the Sox but it's not a crazy scenario. |
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Post by redsoxpride34 on Aug 2, 2023 14:14:57 GMT -5
Having baseball players play for your baseball team is infact "capitalizing" on the asset This is the most annoying thing about all this discussion. Adam Duvall and James Paxton are providing value to the major league team right now! The 2% chance they have to win the World Series (which is pretty darn good, if you ask me) rests on those guys providing good value. It is not a poor use of assets to decide that short term value is more useful to the organization than another potential fourth outfielder/fifth starter type. It’s totally fine to let the contract expire and reallocate that money elsewhere next year. Sounds like they had an idea of what it would take prospect-wise to be worth giving up on those chances and other teams didn’t want to meet it. Conversely, sounds like they didn’t think the rentals on the market improved their chances enough to be worth it—which, yes, takes into account the guys coming back from the IL, who would probably all leapfrog whoever they acquired into the rotation when they’re back—so they stood pat. I don’t see what’s so outrageous over standing pat because you don’t think the rentals on the market actually make the team better. If you think you’re a legit contender, then maybe it makes sense to push the boat out for a prohibitively expensive difference-maker like Blake Snell, but that’s not where the Red Sox are right now. Duvall is basically the 4th outfielder on this team and all his presence does is take playing time away from younger guys like Duran which ultimately hinders his development. The team already has Refsnyder on the bench to fill the righty 4th outfielder role with the starters being all lefthanded. Paxton has been pitching well but is a massive injury risk. With all the guys coming back, the team is going to have too many starters and relievers for the number of spots. Sale, Bello, Houck, Paxton, Whitlock, Pivetta, Crawford plus Walter, Drohan and Mata in AAA. What they likely could have got in a trade would have far exceeded the value of what he provides above the guys who could be starting in his spot. |
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Aug 2, 2023 14:18:56 GMT -5
This is the most annoying thing about all this discussion. Adam Duvall and James Paxton are providing value to the major league team right now! The 2% chance they have to win the World Series (which is pretty darn good, if you ask me) rests on those guys providing good value. It is not a poor use of assets to decide that short term value is more useful to the organization than another potential fourth outfielder/fifth starter type. It’s totally fine to let the contract expire and reallocate that money elsewhere next year. Sounds like they had an idea of what it would take prospect-wise to be worth giving up on those chances and other teams didn’t want to meet it. Conversely, sounds like they didn’t think the rentals on the market improved their chances enough to be worth it—which, yes, takes into account the guys coming back from the IL, who would probably all leapfrog whoever they acquired into the rotation when they’re back—so they stood pat. I don’t see what’s so outrageous over standing pat because you don’t think the rentals on the market actually make the team better. If you think you’re a legit contender, then maybe it makes sense to push the boat out for a prohibitively expensive difference-maker like Blake Snell, but that’s not where the Red Sox are right now. Duvall is basically the 4th outfielder on this team and all his presence does is take playing time away from younger guys like Duran which ultimately hinders his development. The team already has Refsnyder on the bench to fill the righty 4th outfielder role with the starters being all lefthanded. Paxton has been pitching well but is a massive injury risk. With all the guys coming back, the team is going to have too many starters and relievers for the number of spots. Sale, Bello, Houck, Paxton, Whitlock, Pivetta, Crawford plus Walter, Drohan and Mata in AAA. What they likely could have got in a trade would have far exceeded the value of what he provides above the guys who could be starting in his spot. It's really not though. Duran is playing pretty much every day at this point. Maybe 6 of 7 or something but not to a degree it's "hindering his development." |
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bloomstaxonomy
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Post by bloomstaxonomy on Aug 2, 2023 14:25:20 GMT -5
Pete Abraham also took a shot at ERod for using his no trade clause, which he negotiated for and basically said reflected on his lack of competitiveness. That was unprofessional IMO, and also surprising given what we saw from him In 2018. Dude also carried the pitching staff on his back in 2019 with all the injuries and horrendous years that everyone else on that staff put up. Should have had 20 wins, if they didn't completely blow it for him in his final start. Pete Abraham and all those old men can honestly just.... Let's just say it's interesting how many of them have always hated on certain "types" of players... I'll leave it at that. Look, you never know what people are struggling with internally, but Pete strikes me as a bitter, miserable dude. He gleefully rains on parades and picks arguments with randos on Twitter (yeah, he probably gets some infuriating and/or cruel replies, but some of them are insightful and genuine and he belittles those people too). I remember a friend of mine suggested to him that Brock Holt could find more playing time by playing other positions, such as in the outfield, and he replied with something snarky to the effect of “What is this? A company picnic softball game? Not gonna happen.” The next week, Brock Holt was shagging fly balls in the outfield. I hope Pete is working on himself to process whatever he’s been dealing with. My Mt. Rushmore of Sox beat writers are Speier, Cotillo, and McAdam. McCaffrey, Murray, and Jennings in the second tier. All are good, imo. They seem to be level-headed writers who can be critical and honest in their analysis without being condescending or caustic. In my view Mike Reiss (Pats) is the writer all sports writers should aspire to emulate. Anyways, I’m very much looking forward to the 2024 trade deadline. I think we’ll be that much closer to the cavalry arriving in the throes of an extremely competitive division. |
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Post by chaimtime on Aug 2, 2023 14:37:21 GMT -5
This is the most annoying thing about all this discussion. Adam Duvall and James Paxton are providing value to the major league team right now! The 2% chance they have to win the World Series (which is pretty darn good, if you ask me) rests on those guys providing good value. It is not a poor use of assets to decide that short term value is more useful to the organization than another potential fourth outfielder/fifth starter type. It’s totally fine to let the contract expire and reallocate that money elsewhere next year. Sounds like they had an idea of what it would take prospect-wise to be worth giving up on those chances and other teams didn’t want to meet it. Conversely, sounds like they didn’t think the rentals on the market improved their chances enough to be worth it—which, yes, takes into account the guys coming back from the IL, who would probably all leapfrog whoever they acquired into the rotation when they’re back—so they stood pat. I don’t see what’s so outrageous over standing pat because you don’t think the rentals on the market actually make the team better. If you think you’re a legit contender, then maybe it makes sense to push the boat out for a prohibitively expensive difference-maker like Blake Snell, but that’s not where the Red Sox are right now. Duvall is basically the 4th outfielder on this team and all his presence does is take playing time away from younger guys like Duran which ultimately hinders his development. The team already has Refsnyder on the bench to fill the righty 4th outfielder role with the starters being all lefthanded. Paxton has been pitching well but is a massive injury risk. With all the guys coming back, the team is going to have too many starters and relievers for the number of spots. Sale, Bello, Houck, Paxton, Whitlock, Pivetta, Crawford plus Walter, Drohan and Mata in AAA. What they likely could have got in a trade would have far exceeded the value of what he provides above the guys who could be starting in his spot. Go take another look at the returns rental hitters brought back on the market and tell me if you really believe they would’ve gotten good value for Duvall. Duvall is also a lot better than Refsnyder. The only guy he’s “blocking” is Rafaela, who they clearly want to give more time in the minors to further develop his approach. Paxton has been the best pitcher on the team. You’re right that he’s an injury risk, which I imagine was brought up pretty often by the teams trying to trade for him. Those two things combined resulted in teams not being willing to offer enough to make it worth selling. Do you have any basis for these value claims you’re making, or do you think they should just run the team off of vibes? |
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Post by seamus on Aug 2, 2023 14:52:51 GMT -5
I look at it the trade deadline this way. Going into the All-Star break, the major guys they could have realistically dealt (so not Devers, Mayer, etc.) were Paxton, Duvall, Verdugo, Jansen, Turner, and Hernandez. They traded Hernandez, itself addition by subtraction this year, and got some arms that could be useful down the stretch given the bullpen churn. For the rest, they mostly represent the kind of player I think we'd have wanted them to add in order to compete: - Paxton - High-end starter
- Duvall - Right-handed power hitter who can play center field or Fenway right field.
- Turner - Right-handed all-around hitter with infield versatility.
- Jansen - Right-handed high-leverage bullpen arm.
The exception would be Verdugo, but putting yourself one pulled muscle or stray HBP away from Refsnyder facing righties and Yoshida playing left field every day is really risky. I think he'll be moved in the offseason, but their current roster really benefits from the mix-and-match versatility that 4 starting caliber outfielders and a great lefty masher provides.
All in all, the only piece that I feel went missing was a back-end starter, but I think you could argue that at least one of Sale/Houck/Whitlock can at least duplicate that impact. |
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Post by remmartin34 on Aug 2, 2023 14:55:04 GMT -5
Dude also carried the pitching staff on his back in 2019 with all the injuries and horrendous years that everyone else on that staff put up. Should have had 20 wins, if they didn't completely blow it for him in his final start. Pete Abraham and all those old men can honestly just.... Let's just say it's interesting how many of them have always hated on certain "types" of players... I'll leave it at that. Look, you never know what people are struggling with internally, but Pete strikes me as a bitter, miserable dude. He gleefully rains on parades and picks arguments with randos on Twitter (yeah, he probably gets some infuriating and/or cruel replies, but some of them are insightful and genuine and he belittles those people too). I remember a friend of mine suggested to him that Brock Holt could find more playing time by playing other positions, such as in the outfield, and he replied with something snarky to the effect of “What is this? A company picnic softball game? Not gonna happen.” The next week, Brock Holt was shagging fly balls in the outfield. I hope Pete is working on himself to process whatever he’s been dealing with. My Mt. Rushmore of Sox beat writers are Speier, Cotillo, and McAdam. McCaffrey, Murray, and Jennings in the second tier. All are good, imo. They seem to be level-headed writers who can be critical and honest in their analysis without being condescending or caustic. In my view Mike Reiss (Pats) is the writer all sports writers should aspire to emulate. Anyways, I’m very much looking forward to the 2024 trade deadline. I think we’ll be that much closer to the cavalry arriving in the throes of an extremely competitive division. "My Mt. Rushmore of Sox beat writers are Speier, Cotillo, and McAdam" ... Without a doubt, those are my top three as well, as it relates to the major league team.. and of course Chris Hatfield BY MILES for all things related to the minor league teams/prospects/draft signings and farm system in general  |
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Aug 2, 2023 14:58:54 GMT -5
I hope not. Last I saw him, he was toast. He was very toast last year, probably the worst starting pitcher in baseball Weirdly been dominant in AAA this year though. GB rate back up to 60+% too I was wondering the same thing. We have the cap room and it makes sense to give him a shot since our injured pitchers arent ready. They also want to make Sale a starter again which means a longer build up. |
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Post by incandenza on Aug 2, 2023 14:59:38 GMT -5
I’ve come to see the Sox best move as Bichette getting hurt. Genius. Terrible for Jays, likely the only team the Sox can catch. We've been focused on the Blue Jays and Astros but I think the Rangers are more likely to fall out of it than the Astros. Since June 1 the Rangers are 26-26, currently 4 games ahead of the Red Sox. If each team plays at the pace they have since June 1 the rest of the way it'll be a coin flip on who makes it. Obviously the Rangers will likely finish ahead of the Sox but it's not a crazy scenario. I'm an Orioles truther - I don't think they're for real. I mean, I'm sorry, but they're 14th in positional WAR with unsustainable contributions from the likes of Ryan O'Hearn and Aaron Hicks; and they're 15th in team ERA. How is that a 66-41 team? They are due to crash.
Admittedly, 9 games with 55 to play is a lot for the Red Sox to make up against them. But there's usually one divisional leader that flames out down the stretch and my money this year is on the O's.
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Aug 2, 2023 15:09:55 GMT -5
Just read in the Injuries thread that the Sox are hoping to have the trio of Sale/Houck/Whitlock back for the Nat's series that starts Aug 15th. Also says Sale could pitch next weekend in Boston if all goes well between now and then. Story might be activated this weekend but not a definite so as other's have said there's your trade deadline acquisitions.
Certainly putting a lot of stock in returning players but in a perfect world where they come back and are near their true ability quickly it's hard to imagine how the Sox really could have traded for anyone better than those four.
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Post by scottysmalls on Aug 2, 2023 15:27:07 GMT -5
Just read in the Injuries thread that the Sox are hoping to have the trio of Sale/Houck/Whitlock back for the Nat's series that starts Aug 15th. Also says Sale could pitch next weekend in Boston if all goes well between now and then. Story might be activated this weekend but not a definite so as other's have said there's your trade deadline acquisitions. Certainly putting a lot of stock in returning players but in a perfect world where they come back and are near their true ability quickly it's hard to imagine how the Sox really could have traded for anyone better than those four. To be better off than trading for a rental starter they really only need one of those guys to come back by then and be decent in the rotation. |
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Post by nonothing on Aug 2, 2023 15:38:52 GMT -5
The troubling thing about the deadline isn't just MLB talent they didn't get (they only didn't add one guy they could have used=SP). Jake Eder and Sean Reynolds were literally a dream type pair for us to get for bats. I would have traded Duggie or Duvall or Dalbec and Blaze Jordan/other prospects for shot at a high upside guy like Eder alone. If he was available, they could have traded for him and then been Ok dealing other top prospects for the pitcher they needed this year to avoid injuring pitchers they have. So they could have taken care of today and tomorrow if the Marlins were game to trade Eder. My sense is either they are not getting enough information on who could be available or they are bad at evaluating it and understanding their long term roster needs. I love that they are deep, and they absolutely should have sold last year to get deeper (which would have helped this year). That cost them a lot and was really an unforgivable type error last year to end up barely over without a team truly capable of making the playoffs. So they doubled down on the mistake last year by then doing nothing this year. They are doing a good job with the Farm. I give them that. But they are going to over-mature guys and turn them into a bag of baseballs value like Bobby D (who deserved better and could be a player on at least 10 MLB teams - agree Rockies should give him a look). It's not good for the players or the system. And if they didn't let Ward get picked for nothing so they could protect Ryan Brasier -- who everyone knew would not last the season -- I would say look at the consistent prioritizing of youth. But when you lose Ward for nothing -- don't tell me you can't trade a guy like Blaze Jordan or Yorke/Meidroth or Bonaci for something of value to the MLB team because they are so valuable. Ward went 1st in the rule 5 draft. They didn't even have a real roster crunch preventing his protection. I guarantee it was about having deep depth and not giving him a spot before maybe he was ready. But Brasier in his last year of arb had a spot so... You have to understand the peaks and valleys of asset values over time and monetize at peaks. I don't see that skillset yet, and Bloom is getting old for that. If he lasts into next year, it should be his last without a President over top of him unless he demonstrates ability to monetize selectively from the Farm successfully. That is more the missing skill here -- not the failure to sign overpriced FAs or to build a strong core. But some guys aren't core, and they should be picked from the farm when ripe and not left to die on the tree. Someone has to tell me why they need any bats at all. Haven't people been looking at what the offense is doing? They've got 6-7 guys carrying OPS+ numbers at or well above 120, and that's before Story returns. Do they not have this deluxe minor league system they've rebuilt? What am I missing here?? As for monetization and asset values, he got Turner at a ridiculous discount, a greatly undervalued Yoshida on a more than reasonable contract - to the likely dismay of the naysayers - and the lineup heavyweights are increasingly effective young guys making peanuts. I'm at a loss... You are at a loss because you don't know that Eder (SP) and Reynolds (RP) are pitchers I was saying to get in exchange for our excess of bats, where Eder in particular is a lefty who could be in the conversation for Cy Youngs when he makes it to the bigs after the TJ he is recovering from. |
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Post by nonothing on Aug 2, 2023 15:58:36 GMT -5
All of this odds nonsense makes my brain hurt. Yesterday the Red Sox made up 40% of their deficit blocking their way to a playoff spot. They are 1.5 games out. Really I think it's a binary decision. Are they legit contenders or are they not? Last year the "odds" were roughly what they are now, but to me it's two very different teams and scenarios. I wanted them to punt last year. I did not feel they were legit contenders, even being just 2.5 games out or whatever it was. I didn't like their direction. I thought the team had too many holes to fix, and they were getting crushed by the caliber of teams they'd be facing in the playoffs. I turned out to be correct in my assessment. I could have just as easily have been wrong, but you cant straddle the fence. You're either on or you're out. You cant be a little prgenant. This year I feel the same decisiveness about the team. I wanted no part of selling. This team is a legit contender. They might beat themselves and find a way to miss the playoffs, but watching this team, they can stand up with the big boys, they have much better talent than last year and it's obvious to me this team has another gear in them they have yet to activate. They may never activate it, but its there and I can see it. I might wind up being wrong, but i dont care what the odds say, they're a contender and while i wouldnt have gone crazy making additions adding a capable starter would have been helpful, to take the pressure off the pen from these bullpen games and hedge their bets in case any of Paxton. Bello, or Sale get injured. But either way, sell on Turner, Paxton, or Duvall? Hell no. The Sox have a playoff spot to chase and as far as I can see this team is a legit contender and should NOT have punted on the season. Quote the odds all you want but make up your own minds to what you're seeing. This 100% (unless you had to trade Duvall to get a potential future Cy Young winner -- in which case I think you bend and do it). But otherwise this, 100% |
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Post by chaimtime on Aug 2, 2023 16:25:42 GMT -5
Someone has to tell me why they need any bats at all. Haven't people been looking at what the offense is doing? They've got 6-7 guys carrying OPS+ numbers at or well above 120, and that's before Story returns. Do they not have this deluxe minor league system they've rebuilt? What am I missing here?? As for monetization and asset values, he got Turner at a ridiculous discount, a greatly undervalued Yoshida on a more than reasonable contract - to the likely dismay of the naysayers - and the lineup heavyweights are increasingly effective young guys making peanuts. I'm at a loss... You are at a loss because you don't know that Eder (SP) and Reynolds (RP) are pitchers I was saying to get in exchange for our excess of bats, where Eder in particular is a lefty who could be in the conversation for Cy Youngs when he makes it to the bigs after the TJ he is recovering from. Ignoring the fact that it’s a pretty bullish projection to predict Jake Eder will be in the Cy Young conversation in the next few years, he went for Jake Burger, who is worth a lot more than whatever we had to sell. I don’t think Adam Duvall brings those guys back. |
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Aug 2, 2023 16:30:36 GMT -5
Mine swayed a bit. I think he's excellent at building up the foundation of a team, but the cowardice at the deadline 2 years in a row is frustrating. Either commit or don't. I think fans can accept a direction. I think plenty of people would have been upset by a sell, but I think that would have been more tolerable. I was on the sell side of things, but adding a few pieces and trying to capture that 3rd Wild Card would have been fine by me. Blaze Jordan is exactly the prospect you flip for rentals. As long as he's got a strong core of young guys and they come up and succeed, I'm pro-Bloom. I just really hate the standing pat strategy. It just reeks of indecision. I wouldn’t call it that. I think Bloom would pull the trigger to put us over the top. Not to barley squeeze in. Blaze is a top 10 prospect in most farm systems, to give that up for a rental and then possibly miss the playoffs would be silly if you can wait until the offseason flip him/others for a player under control for multiple years. You say it reeks of indecision and I think most moves are made out of desperation. I’d rather be smart than desperate. You make the right deals. Not a deal just to make a deal. Im sure he made the calls saw the players others team wanted and said no they are a big part of our future. If you think this team should be competitive, they needed depth at 2B/SS, SP and/or BP. I'm not saying he needed to trade a guy like Mayer and get a front line guy, but they absolutely need a 4/5 starter. I get Sale is coming back, but for how many starts? 2? He's shown zero ability to stay on the field. Whitlock, is he even throwing yet? Houck is a plus, but he'll give them 4 innings every 5 days. I like what I'm seeing from Pivetta from the pen and would like to keep him there. Ideally, I'd like for Whitlock and Houck to go back to the pen. The point is, they needed some help. Now again, I was team sell, but if you're going to tell me this team is too good to give up on then at least make the small moves to plug some holes. Blaze would be a top 10 in some organizations. You have to give up value to get value and a guy that's top 10 on some organizations is a guy who is an interesting piece with potential and hope for the moon, but pray they're at least an ML regular. |
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Post by nonothing on Aug 2, 2023 16:48:08 GMT -5
You are at a loss because you don't know that Eder (SP) and Reynolds (RP) are pitchers I was saying to get in exchange for our excess of bats, where Eder in particular is a lefty who could be in the conversation for Cy Youngs when he makes it to the bigs after the TJ he is recovering from. Ignoring the fact that it’s a pretty bullish projection to predict Jake Eder will be in the Cy Young conversation in the next few years, he went for Jake Burger, who is worth a lot more than whatever we had to sell. I don’t think Adam Duvall brings those guys back. Jake Burger in 500 MLB ABs has OBP under .300 (.230/.291/.791) and strikes out a third of the time (173), and he is 27. He was the White Sox's 16th ranked prospect in 2021. We didn't have anything better to offer straight up for Jake Eder than Jake Burger? It's ok. Let's just wait 3 yrs and we can discuss. But we have zero lefty starting pitching prospects like Eder. My point wasn't entirely about him. It's about knowing what's available and figuring out how to create some value at each time inflection point. That was just an example of finding potential value. Doing nothing, even though they needed very little, is a sign of not knowing how to find value very well. He did get Urias, and that's the kind of under the radar deal I am talking about. But we do not have a good pitching system -- so that's where we need to focus finding the hidden diamonds. On to the back half of the season and then setting the roster before the R5 draft. Let's see how it goes. I think we make the playoffs, but one SP would probably have protected team against injuries. Maybe Barraclough/Limet are the internal answers. If so, I expect to see Barraclough soon. |
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Post by dirtywaterinla on Aug 2, 2023 16:54:32 GMT -5
Duvall is basically the 4th outfielder on this team and all his presence does is take playing time away from younger guys like Duran which ultimately hinders his development. The team already has Refsnyder on the bench to fill the righty 4th outfielder role with the starters being all lefthanded. Paxton has been pitching well but is a massive injury risk. With all the guys coming back, the team is going to have too many starters and relievers for the number of spots. Sale, Bello, Houck, Paxton, Whitlock, Pivetta, Crawford plus Walter, Drohan and Mata in AAA. What they likely could have got in a trade would have far exceeded the value of what he provides above the guys who could be starting in his spot. It's really not though. Duran is playing pretty much every day at this point. Maybe 6 of 7 or something but not to a degree it's "hindering his development." Also, how is there a crunch w/ pitching? Walter is in AAA w/ options, Drohan isn’t on the 40 man, and Mata has been hurt for a majority of the season and will be lucky to have any impact on the big league roster this season. Lastly, it’s entirely likely Whitlock will be working out of the pen when he’s back, Pivetta is getting more starting opportunities with the way he’s pitching and Sale/Houck are likely going to be an opener and bulk duo. |
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Post by chaimtime on Aug 2, 2023 17:01:22 GMT -5
I wouldn’t call it that. I think Bloom would pull the trigger to put us over the top. Not to barley squeeze in. Blaze is a top 10 prospect in most farm systems, to give that up for a rental and then possibly miss the playoffs would be silly if you can wait until the offseason flip him/others for a player under control for multiple years. You say it reeks of indecision and I think most moves are made out of desperation. I’d rather be smart than desperate. You make the right deals. Not a deal just to make a deal. Im sure he made the calls saw the players others team wanted and said no they are a big part of our future. If you think this team should be competitive, they needed depth at 2B/SS, SP and/or BP. I'm not saying he needed to trade a guy like Mayer and get a front line guy, but they absolutely need a 4/5 starter. I get Sale is coming back, but for how many starts? 2? He's shown zero ability to stay on the field. Whitlock, is he even throwing yet? Houck is a plus, but he'll give them 4 innings every 5 days. I like what I'm seeing from Pivetta from the pen and would like to keep him there. Ideally, I'd like for Whitlock and Houck to go back to the pen. The point is, they needed some help. Now again, I was team sell, but if you're going to tell me this team is too good to give up on then at least make the small moves to plug some holes. Blaze would be a top 10 in some organizations. You have to give up value to get value and a guy that's top 10 on some organizations is a guy who is an interesting piece with potential and hope for the moon, but pray they're at least an ML regular. But they did get depth at 2B and the bullpen with Urias and the guys they got for Kiké. TBD has also been a better pitcher than whatever rental starter they probably could’ve gotten. If they think they can get 60 or so combined innings from Sale/Houck/Whitlock then that’s probably better than whatever a rental would’ve given them. You can’t really say they don’t have starter depth because you want every single one of their starters to go to/stay in the bullpen. That’s obviously not going to happen. I also have a hunch that Blaze Jordan, being a 1B-only prospect, does not have as much trade value as we think. Honestly the more I look at what this team has done over the past two months, the more I have to commend Bloom and Cora for squeezing about as much value as possible out of the bottom of the roster. Rotating between the guys with options and maximizing the matchups for the bullpen has really helped not just stay afloat, but thrive through the pitching injuries. That’s taken an organization-wide effort. |
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Post by chaimtime on Aug 2, 2023 17:15:56 GMT -5
Ignoring the fact that it’s a pretty bullish projection to predict Jake Eder will be in the Cy Young conversation in the next few years, he went for Jake Burger, who is worth a lot more than whatever we had to sell. I don’t think Adam Duvall brings those guys back. Jake Burger in 500 MLB ABs has OBP under .300 (.230/.291/.791) and strikes out a third of the time (173), and he is 27. He was the White Sox's 16th ranked prospect in 2021. We didn't have anything better to offer straight up for Jake Eder than Jake Burger? It's ok. Let's just wait 3 yrs and we can discuss. But we have zero lefty starting pitching prospects like Eder. My point wasn't entirely about him. It's about knowing what's available and figuring out how to create some value at each time inflection point. That was just an example of finding potential value. Doing nothing, even though they needed very little, is a sign of not knowing how to find value very well. He did get Urias, and that's the kind of under the radar deal I am talking about. But we do not have a good pitching system -- so that's where we need to focus finding the hidden diamonds. On to the back half of the season and then setting the roster before the R5 draft. Let's see how it goes. I think we make the playoffs, but one SP would probably have protected team against injuries. Maybe Barraclough/Limet are the internal answers. If so, I expect to see Barraclough soon. Jake Burger smacks the ball and has three years of control. Even if he has some warts, that’s going to get a lot more back in a trade than half a season of a 34 year old outfielder who also has a career OBP below .300. As for starters, the pitching has been excellent even through all the injuries. If they really need a guy to take a few starts to give the bullpen a breather, how much value does Michael Lorenzen or Jack Flaherty really add over Dinelson Lamet or Kyle Barraclough, like you said? It really feels to me like they concluded that, unless they could find a legit difference-maker with years of control, their path to the playoffs relied on their injured guys coming back and playing well. I think that’s probably right—a healthy Trevor Story is a major, major upgrade, and any one of Sale, Houck or Whitlock pitching the way we know they can is better than most of the arms moved at the deadline. |
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Post by e on Aug 2, 2023 17:18:52 GMT -5
Ignoring the fact that it’s a pretty bullish projection to predict Jake Eder will be in the Cy Young conversation in the next few years, he went for Jake Burger, who is worth a lot more than whatever we had to sell. I don’t think Adam Duvall brings those guys back. Jake Burger in 500 MLB ABs has OBP under .300 (.230/.291/.791) and strikes out a third of the time (173), and he is 27. He was the White Sox's 16th ranked prospect in 2021. We didn't have anything better to offer straight up for Jake Eder than Jake Burger? It's ok. Let's just wait 3 yrs and we can discuss. But we have zero lefty starting pitching prospects like Eder. My point wasn't entirely about him. It's about knowing what's available and figuring out how to create some value at each time inflection point. That was just an example of finding potential value. Doing nothing, even though they needed very little, is a sign of not knowing how to find value very well. He did get Urias, and that's the kind of under the radar deal I am talking about. But we do not have a good pitching system -- so that's where we need to focus finding the hidden diamonds. On to the back half of the season and then setting the roster before the R5 draft. Let's see how it goes. I think we make the playoffs, but one SP would probably have protected team against injuries. Maybe Barraclough/Limet are the internal answers. If so, I expect to see Barraclough soon. Two things: Do you honestly think the front office just did nothing yesterday? Obviously they understood and knew what was available on the market and what it would take to get it. You can't just say "we couldn't offer anything better than Jake Burger." Obviously there are guys that are more valuable on the current team and in the system, but teams aren't just looking to match value. They care about the fit. The Marlins aren't going to seek out any bat. They have an outfield of Chisholm, De La Cruz, and Sanchez. Their DH is Soler. Their outfield was solid. They were looking for corner infielders because they were getting zero offensive production there. The Red Sox did not have any available corner infielders that would net you Eder. Some teams fit better than others in trade talks. It's silly to claim the front office had no idea Eder was available. Along with that, you're just painting Burger in a bad light. 1.4 fWar this year, a 115 career WRC+, and below average but playable defense at third. I think it was an awful deal for the Marlins, because like you I am high on Eder. But Burger is no slouch and is a controllable starting third baseman. |
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Post by Smittyw on Aug 2, 2023 19:00:19 GMT -5
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Aug 2, 2023 19:19:29 GMT -5
If you think this team should be competitive, they needed depth at 2B/SS, SP and/or BP. I'm not saying he needed to trade a guy like Mayer and get a front line guy, but they absolutely need a 4/5 starter. I get Sale is coming back, but for how many starts? 2? He's shown zero ability to stay on the field. Whitlock, is he even throwing yet? Houck is a plus, but he'll give them 4 innings every 5 days. I like what I'm seeing from Pivetta from the pen and would like to keep him there. Ideally, I'd like for Whitlock and Houck to go back to the pen. The point is, they needed some help. Now again, I was team sell, but if you're going to tell me this team is too good to give up on then at least make the small moves to plug some holes. Blaze would be a top 10 in some organizations. You have to give up value to get value and a guy that's top 10 on some organizations is a guy who is an interesting piece with potential and hope for the moon, but pray they're at least an ML regular. But they did get depth at 2B and the bullpen with Urias and the guys they got for Kiké. TBD has also been a better pitcher than whatever rental starter they probably could’ve gotten. If they think they can get 60 or so combined innings from Sale/Houck/Whitlock then that’s probably better than whatever a rental would’ve given them. You can’t really say they don’t have starter depth because you want every single one of their starters to go to/stay in the bullpen. That’s obviously not going to happen. I also have a hunch that Blaze Jordan, being a 1B-only prospect, does not have as much trade value as we think. Honestly the more I look at what this team has done over the past two months, the more I have to commend Bloom and Cora for squeezing about as much value as possible out of the bottom of the roster. Rotating between the guys with options and maximizing the matchups for the bullpen has really helped not just stay afloat, but thrive through the pitching injuries. That’s taken an organization-wide effort. Urias is hitting .145 with 8 hits in 50 at bats. His WAR on the season so far is -0.1. In 5 years, he cumulatively has 7.1. Last year's numbers were fine for what they need, but they're getting a guy they're hoping will rebound for the stretch run. I'd rather a guy who has been performing for the stretch. To not get anything better than Yu Chang and/or Arroyo is crazy. I'm interested in the AAAA arms they got from the Dodgers. That might be fair in addressing the bullpen. SP is a problem though. Whitlock is a major question mark on when he's coming back. Sale is just too unreliable to pencil in. Houck is fine in the rotation and having him piggyback with Kutter would be ideal. The team needs help. I don't believe they need big help, but they have holes. |
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Post by rhswanzey on Aug 2, 2023 20:19:31 GMT -5
Without an excessive block of text copy/paste to go over the prospects that each guy cost, I think the missed opportunity here was picking up Yarborough (LAD) and Barlow (SD) from the Royals. It wouldn’t have been a home run type move, but it was affordable rental pitching that didn’t go for very much. Sure, the staff would become crowded as other arms started to return, but I think three full months of healthy Sale AND three fully healthy months of Whitlock is a pretty dumb bet. I think we have seen a taste in the Seattle series of how bullpen games leave us at risk of becoming less competitive in games that follow; game 1 is the obvious one, but so isn’t trying to squeeze two innings of Schreiber in game 3 today. That doesn’t happen if we didn’t enter game 1 of the series with the usage we entered it with.
I agree with the decision to not push major chips in if a multiyear impact SP like Cease or Keller was not moving. But the team has been left in a position where it is vulnerable to playing itself out of the picture this month since it will not have all three pitchers back in the next week or two. There’s real risk of losing significant ground before getting to full strength. We’re also exactly where we were the day after Brasier was DFA’d, when Schreiber got hurt - one leverage arm injury away from pushing fungible RHRP into frequent mid lev usage (shoot, Llovera’s *already* been seeing some of that, even with all of our RHRP healthy and active).
I don’t think we have a good public facing reliever metric for how one piece affects the other pieces, in terms of how an additional weak link affects usage and leverage distribution among the other arms, which in turn may impact their effectiveness, rate stats, etc. They may yet sneak into the third wild card spot but it’ll take some luck, and the defense is already so bad that it, imo, was worth a strong rule 5 bubble guy like Bonaci to at least shore up the second major vulnerability.
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Post by manfred on Aug 2, 2023 20:29:26 GMT -5
Today was another very good starting performance. Their starting pitching is not failing them. Unless they are lying about the health of the three guys coming back, I really think it is ok they didn’t get a rental 5/6 starter. It is possible that person would get 2 starts then go to the bullpen.
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Post by nonothing on Aug 2, 2023 20:34:46 GMT -5
Jake Burger in 500 MLB ABs has OBP under .300 (.230/.291/.791) and strikes out a third of the time (173), and he is 27. He was the White Sox's 16th ranked prospect in 2021. We didn't have anything better to offer straight up for Jake Eder than Jake Burger? It's ok. Let's just wait 3 yrs and we can discuss. But we have zero lefty starting pitching prospects like Eder. My point wasn't entirely about him. It's about knowing what's available and figuring out how to create some value at each time inflection point. That was just an example of finding potential value. Doing nothing, even though they needed very little, is a sign of not knowing how to find value very well. He did get Urias, and that's the kind of under the radar deal I am talking about. But we do not have a good pitching system -- so that's where we need to focus finding the hidden diamonds. On to the back half of the season and then setting the roster before the R5 draft. Let's see how it goes. I think we make the playoffs, but one SP would probably have protected team against injuries. Maybe Barraclough/Limet are the internal answers. If so, I expect to see Barraclough soon. Jake Burger smacks the ball and has three years of control. Even if he has some warts, that’s going to get a lot more back in a trade than half a season of a 34 year old outfielder who also has a career OBP below .300. As for starters, the pitching has been excellent even through all the injuries. If they really need a guy to take a few starts to give the bullpen a breather, how much value does Michael Lorenzen or Jack Flaherty really add over Dinelson Lamet or Kyle Barraclough, like you said? It really feels to me like they concluded that, unless they could find a legit difference-maker with years of control, their path to the playoffs relied on their injured guys coming back and playing well. I think that’s probably right—a healthy Trevor Story is a major, major upgrade, and any one of Sale, Houck or Whitlock pitching the way we know they can is better than most of the arms moved at the deadline. I agree that Lorenzen and Flaherty were not worth getting. To me, it was go for Montgomery or Cease or maybe another guy or two. There were not a lot of difference makers to get. I disagree that a team wanting to win this year should find Jake Burger more compelling than Duvall at this point in their careers. Every off-season, Jake Burgers are hanging around, and they get very little to mash or go sit down each AB. Adam Duvall plays credible OF defense, and he is a gamer. So look -- I prefer we kept him for sure. I think he will help us win. But for a potential huge upside guy who could be an ace for 6 years -- well, I think it's worth being thoughtful and bending there because we have OF depth and could handle the loss if it were for that kind of add. That is a very different statement than thinking he should have been traded for whatever they could get because I absolutely don't believe that. I think he is a veteran guy who with Turner and Paxton will help lead this team to the playoffs. Some talent is rarely traded, and of all the guys move at the deadline, Eder was the one we missed for what we need to be competitive without huge cost over the next 7 years. They should have known and been on every Marlins pitcher given everyone knows they have a bunch of high upside arms and could afford to deal one and desperately need bats. So that's it. You can balance present and future. But I was hoping we would sign Duvall and am happy to keep him. He was exactly the right sign for this team, and I am happy he is staying. We just should have dealt whatever we needed to -- given the cost was not super high -- to get Eder. And in 3-5 years, I suspect everyone will agree. Time will tell. |
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