2024 MLB Draft

See this is a thing I see a lot that Im not sure I understand -

"Breslow made his name developing pitchers so obviously he'll use his most valuable resources to acquire pitching."

He got one of the MLBs best rotations from the guys who were already here. Why use top picks on pitching when he and Bailey can develop top of the rotation pitching from guys who we all assumed were mid-rotation pitchers four months ago?

I haven't commented a lot on the 2024 draft thread, especially compared to the two previous years, but I've seen a lot of Christian Moore over the years and the argument for why you'd take him in the middle of the first is relatively straightforward.

1) He hits the ball extremely hard.

2) He doesn't whiff a lot, especially inside the strike zone.

3) He hits breaking balls well.

4) He's absolutely torn up the SEC, both home and road.

Obviously, you'd love it if he played SS or center, but that player would probably be a top 5 pick. The man has as straightforward a path to the majors as you'll find from someone likely available in the middle of the first.

I mean the negatives are clear -

1) He will chase pitches, especially fastballs.

2) He's more likely to have to move off second than he is to have been a secret shortstop this whole time. Some prognosticators might give him above average potential at second, but I feel like it might be more average to fringe-average. He's actually a fairly good athlete I feel like (I don't have testing numbers or anything) but I've seen him blow more plays than I'd like defensively.

There are 13 pitchers one a team at one time. One 2B.

Mike Trout is a CF. There are 3 OFs. So even if they loved Westmoreland -- not taking Trout after Westmoreland would have made no sense if they liked the player. That's not really analogous to the 2B discussion.

2B is a defensively critical position. Why do you think CLE's pitching is so good every year? Is it because their 2B can hit or field? 2B is a position teams routinely make the mistake of putting a good hitter who isn't a good fielder when they would be better off putting a great fielder who hits "enough." The best defensive 2Bs in MLB were not 2Bs typically before MLB. So for me -- a big part of the argument against drafting a 2B on an offensive profile is a philosophy about team building, not just drafting.

But -- somebody on this site did a long piece on where top of rotation arms come from, and the answer was overwhelmingly from the MLB draft. Maybe somebody can link it in this discussion. It was very well done.

So if the idea is that a hitter is higher probability to make the bigs than a pitcher -- fair enough. But if 80% of the top pitchers come from the first round or so of the draft -- then never using your first round pick on a pitcher would be a mistake.

It is a bad idea to do the same thing over and over and over when you can't make a winning team filled with high contact MIs, only some of whom are good defenders.

Ask yourself whether you think we can get even a likely #4/5 starter for Nick Yorke straight up? You can't. Pitching is expensive to acquire because it is hard to develop. That lower probability comes with a higher value to the asset created if well developed. So it's not as straightforward a just draft the best hitter at any position every time.

How many teams have made the playoffs or won the World Series because they had a great offensive 2B who wasn't a great fielder? Only Altuve and Jeff Kent come to mind. Pedey and Ryne Sandberg were excellent defenders, as was Ian Kinsler.

Pedey was SS in college. Kinsler played 2B next to him, then transferred to Mizzou to play... SS. Jeff Kent was
SS. Craig Biggio was a C in college. Sandberg was drafted in the 20th round out of high school and made his MLB debut at SS. I think Altuve (not drafted) may really have been always been a 2B, but not positive.

Maybe I am way off the mark, but can somebody please tell me of all the great Round 1 or even Round 2 college or high school 2Bs that have made their marks in MLB? I am sincerely curious.

Note added:

Chase Utley was drafted in Round 2 as a SS out of high school, but at UCLA did play 2B (after starting there as a SS) and was drafted in Round 1 out of college. He was an excellent defender in his prime, and he was 2B in college. This is the only example of a truly difference making player drafted in Round 1 or 2 as a 2B that I can think of.

Robbie Alomar (not drafted) played 2B and earned 10 gold gloves. I am not sure if he always played 2B, but he grew up modeling his game after his MLB 2B dad, so hard to comp.

I wrote what literally may have been 2000 words on my thoughts from the College Station regional, and when I hit post, it gave me an error message, and it was all gone... That is crushing. No chance I'm going to do that again, but if there's a player from Grambling, Texas, Louisiana, or Texas A&M that anyone is ever curious about, they can feel free to ask and I'll share my thoughts individually (I’ll also gladly expand on any of the players I mention below). I don't have the energy to write up 25 or so players again...

A couple highlights:
- Kyle DeBarge is very Pedey-esque (in a general sense, not going to set those expectations specifically) and would be a really fun pick in like the fourth.
- Braden Montgomery is every bit the top 10 pick he's billed to be and would have a top 5 outfield arm from day one. Should he fall by some miracle, I will throw a table over for him to be the pick.
- I will pound the table for Ryan Prager the same way I did for Connelly Early last year (tons of good starter qualities, just needs some more fastball velo - dude threw an immaculate inning!!)
- Kimble Schuessler is a real sleeper for me in this draft if he can catch at all (TBD).
- Chris Cortez is a guy I will be way higher on than anyone, and wouldn't hate him under slot in the second round (100 mph with good IVB, a truly unhittable slider when he's on, but terrible control and lack of a true third pitch the obvious risks.). The highs are so high that they are worth that level of investment to me.

There was a piece somebody did on how the Red Sox drafted a bunch of pitchers specifically for characteristics that led to high velo, but straight and very hitable fastballs. So they did waste a bunch of high picks (1st and others) on this strategy, before they switched to the more recent hitters only post-Houck.

I do think the issue was not one of drafting pitchers early, but of drafting a specific type of pitcher who succeeds at the lower levels of the minors and gets clocked higher up.

That sucks, but thanks for the clifnotes version of your "Hamlet".

Trading Devers would be incredibly dumb. Winning teams typically have a few very elite tool players. Devers is inarguably an elite hitter. We need more elite players, not less.

My final thought on draft until it is over. I hope we pick our whole draft on ceiling vs floor this year. And if Breslow spent all of the top 10 picks on college pitching, I think it would be defensible -- not every year -- just for one year -- loading up on guys who fit what he is looking for. The window isn't one year in 2026. The window is 2026-2030 (hopefully beyond), and a stable of high ceiling college pitchers could get us 1 elite SP and maybe 1-3 other contributing pitchers for that window. Drafting one guy a year who becomes an MLB starter is a win. Drafting one guy who becomes a starter every 5-10 years not so much when SPs are so expensive in FA. And if they fail as SP, they may be good or even spectacular relievers.

Breslow has proven enough that he knows what he is looking for that he finds developable (with Cubs, then Sox). Give the man some ammo.

Yeah this is what I was alluding to. Obviously you'd have to do a much more rigorous study than simply looking at the top 30 position players and pitchers to validate this (or any of the other potential takeaways being discussed - though I do think that the point about "surprise" players like post-10th rounders developing into stars is pretty clear, that happens with pitchers much more often than hitters).

To the point about taking a 2B though I did find this article from BA which touches on it kind of interesting: www.baseballamerica.com/stories/how-often-do-first-rounders-make-the-big-leagues/

Players drafted as 2Bs are, by a decent margin, the worst bets among position players to make the majors (though they are still a clearly better bet to make it than a starting pitcher as a starting pitcher).