2024 MLB Draft

Given where we’re at in the college season I don’t think I’m going to be moving too much on many prospects in this class. And given that my schedule is pretty hectic and I’ll be on vacation all draft week, I figured I may as well throw out my loose “draft board” for the year. I’m obviously no scout, but I do like putting my thoughts down for posterity (last year’s board here: forum.soxprospects.com/thread/6438/2023-mlb-draft?page=30). College guys are almost always guys I’ve watched live, if not watched a decent amount of, whereas high school guys are profiles I gravitate towards.


To reiterate something from last year – I really value floor in the first round, and I’ve explained this in more depth before, but the Cliffnotes version is that the MLB Draft is such a crapshoot that I think getting a guy that can simply play at the major league level is a huge win, and typically going floor allows for savings to allocate for ceiling plays later on. With that said, my tiers:


Almost certainly will not fall, but a guy can dream (for what it’s worth Teel topped this tier last year):
1. JJ Wetherholt, MIF, West Virginia – I doubt he falls for sure, but he seems to be settling in near the bottom of that top tier of college bats, so who knows if things get wonky with high school risers or slot cutting deals. Given the position questions and the injury taking some of his year, it wouldn’t be the most surprising thing in the world. That being said, I don’t care what position he plays, because the guy is simply going to hit.

2. Hagen Smith, LHP, Arkansas – Again I can’t see him falling, but pitching is weird. I don’t really think there’s a whole lot that needs to be said here, as it only takes an inning or so of watching him to realize just how premier the stuff is.


College players that represent a good mix of ceiling and floor:

1. Braden Montgomery, OF, Texas A&M – He was originally going to be #2 in the above tier, but with the injury, who knows. Injury aside, I think the upside would still make this a fantastic pick at this spot, and I still expect him to go top 10 when it’s all said and done. The athleticism and the power potential, especially with his bat speed when that’s a metric that’s entering the mainstream, will be too enticing. I do think he’s more or less locked into a corner outfield spot, though.

2. Trey Yesavage, RHP, East Carolina – When I saw him pitch last year in Charlottesville, I was extremely impressed and fully expected his development into one of the best pitchers in college baseball, though I ultimately was on record as saying I thought he fit the mold of a late first round limited projection type. With the slight uptick in velocity and development of his splitter, though, I think he’d be a great pick at this spot. I still do think the lack of projection limits his upside, but I feel very good about him being a major league starter and think he could be a solid No. 3.

3. James Tibbs, OF, Florida State – He may very well be a left fielder, but I just feel so confident that this dude will rake that I don’t want to be the team to miss out on it if all of the above options gone. His swing is everything I love, compact with controlled violence. I also love that we’re talking about an elite corner outfield bat with a great approach – more walks than strikeouts is so 2007, he almost has more home runs than strikeouts. I feel like he’d be a decent amount under slot, and I think given how the draft is likely to shake out this is whole I’ll be calling for when the pick rolls around.

4. Vance Honeycutt, OF, North Carolina – I can’t quit this dude! Actually I was waffling about where I stood on him after my post yesterday about how I may be out on him, and that’s what inspired me to write this. I’m firmly in. I get that the swing and the miss stuff is a very, very real concern but he does everything else SO well. I have the UNC-WVU game on right now and in this one game alone he’s homered, had the WVU coach call him the fastest man in the world during his in-game interview (3.63 home to first), and hose a kid at first for a double play. In 5 innings!! I believe in aura, and I think he has it. I also think that he can fail to fully fix the swing and still be a full time player with how good the defense should be. Also wow he just took one of the worst swings I’ve ever seen… oh well, in for a penny in for a pound.

5. Jurrangelo Cijntje, Pitcher, Mississippi State – Aura!! This is partly motivated by me simply wanting to see how his development arc goes, but I both think the switch pitching thing can work long-term in strategic spurts while also thinking he’s good enough to have intriguing traits as a righty alone. I see two legitimate plus pitches from the right hand side and just enough control to think that he can start. I’m not going to pound the table for him to be the pick here no matter what, but I think me saying that I’d prefer him to Brecht might be a hot take.


Slot neutral or overslot high schoolers (won’t have much to say on them, it’s all pretty straightforward and not a ton of hot takes here):

1. Bryce Rainier, SS, Harvard-Westlake HS (CA) – Texas commit

2. Cam Caminiti, LHP, Saguaro HS (AZ) – LSU commit

3. Konnor Griffin, SS, Jackson Prep (MS) – LSU commit


College guys who’d represent real “cut a deal” type savings:

1. Carson Benge, OF, Oklahoma State – I like that he’s good at a little bit of everything, without a ton of obvious holes in his game. I feel like he’s a lesser version of Tibbs, in that you know you’re going to get a good hitter, just falling quite short of him in terms of how loud the offensive tools are. This might also be too close to his actual range for it to be a true cutting of a deal, but I think there are enough college players in a tier above him to where it counts.

2. Ryan Johnson, RHP, Dallas Baptist – I would be terrified every time he stepped onto the mound that he’d get hurt, because his delivery is so wackadoodle and violent. But man, multiple plus pitches with control? I am comfortable knowing that the risk could send him to a bullpen role.

3. Christian Moore, 2B, Tennessee – He’s been discussed a decent amount on this board already recently so I will just point out that the type of track record he has in the SEC is not very common, and I’m more willing to look at what the guy can do in this case as opposed to what we THINK he may not be able to do.

4. Jonathan Santucci, LHP, Duke – I’m still willing to buy into the fact that his development has been hampered by his injuries, and I am interested enough in the pitch mix and the fastball traits from the left side.


Mikey Romero “++ slot savings” high schoolers:

1. Levi Sterling, RHP, Notre Dame HS (CA) – Texas commit

2. Dasan Hill, LHP, Grapevine HS (TX) – Dallas Baptist commit

3. JD Dix, SS, Whitefish Bay (WI) – Wake Forest commit


Guys in that range I’m more or less out on (ranking here is by how “okay with it” I’d be should he be the pick):

1. Cam Smith, 3B, Florida State – In theory he should fit everything I like (good hit tool, good defense, production at a high level of competition), but there’s a weird thing with his swing path that bothers me and gives me pause long-term. Still, that’s a pretty niche thing, so that’s why he’s at the top of this list.

2. Seaver King, OF (?), Wake Forest – I really just don’t like the approach here and think that those concerns plus his size will make it difficult for him to impact the ball at the next level.

3. Dakota Jordan, OF, Mississippi State – Wayyyy too much swing and miss in the profile to where I’m a little shocked he’s considered a first round prospect.

If only he weren't a second baseman...

The thing I've told myself as someone who is floor-oriented is he doesn't actually have to be an above average offensive player to be an MLB player. This is a very very zoomed out comparison because there are obviously differences in their game, but if he's JBJ with a little less defense and a little more strikeouts but a lot more power, I'm personally not opposed to that as a mid-level outcome. That's obviously not the true floor, but there's also a galaxy worth of offensive upside beyond that. 

JBJ's wRC+ from 2016-2020: 118, 89, 90, 89, 118. Even with the strikeouts, with his power and a not-terrible approach I don't think it's outlandish to think that's an achievable five year stretch for Honeycutt. 

Bradley had a 19.8% K rate his Junior Year at South Carolina. He was also the 40th pick in the draft. I'd be totally in at Honeycutt at #40.

Pardon me? Your point was that Bradley hit enough in the pros to make the rest of his game play, right? My response is that Honeycutt's strikeout problems are much more pronounced than Bradley's ever were, so it's very risky to just assume that he'll hit as much as Bradley did, just adding in power and strikeouts. It's not "one data point," it's the concern that the flaw in Honeycutt's game will make it not play as he rises through the ranks, a flaw that Bradley didn't share at the same point in their development.