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chaimtime
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Post by chaimtime on Jun 19, 2024 15:54:55 GMT -5
Montgomery is an slam dunk pick if the doctors clears his medicals. My only issue with Tommy White is that I think he ends up at 1st base and R/R 1B have a horrible track record in the 1st round. I’d rather they go in a different direction and let other teams have that. Is there a particular reason that R/R 1B would have worse track records as first round picks than L/L? I'm sure I'm just overthinking something but that seems noisy to me. It just puts too much pressure on the bat, and they’re fighting the platoon disadvantage to boot. Batting left at the very least gives you a chance for the strong side of a platoon. Throwing left at least gives you a slight edge defensively, but I’d assume most of this would hold for the Nick Longhi types. Lefty-mashing first basemen just aren’t very valuable. If that prospect only hits a 65th percentile outcome, there’s a good chance they’re not a major leaguer. Not because they’re necessarily a bad player, but because a 110 wRC+ (ETA: with platoon protection) isn’t good enough to dedicate a roster spot to someone if that’s all the player provides. Baseball Reference’s draft tracker doesn’t seem perfect, since my search for first basemen drafted in the first round yielded Christian Yelich, but it appears that the high-water marks for first round R/R first basemen are CJ Cron and…that’s about it. I don’t think I saw another that had amassed 5 bWAR in the past 20 years. |
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Post by julyanmorley on Jun 19, 2024 16:08:37 GMT -5
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Post by jaffinator on Jun 19, 2024 17:31:50 GMT -5
Is there a particular reason that R/R 1B would have worse track records as first round picks than L/L? I'm sure I'm just overthinking something but that seems noisy to me. It just puts too much pressure on the bat, and they’re fighting the platoon disadvantage to boot. Batting left at the very least gives you a chance for the strong side of a platoon. Throwing left at least gives you a slight edge defensively, but I’d assume most of this would hold for the Nick Longhi types. Lefty-mashing first basemen just aren’t very valuable. If that prospect only hits a 65th percentile outcome, there’s a good chance they’re not a major leaguer. Not because they’re necessarily a bad player, but because a 110 wRC+ (ETA: with platoon protection) isn’t good enough to dedicate a roster spot to someone if that’s all the player provides. Baseball Reference’s draft tracker doesn’t seem perfect, since my search for first basemen drafted in the first round yielded Christian Yelich, but it appears that the high-water marks for first round R/R first basemen are CJ Cron and…that’s about it. I don’t think I saw another that had amassed 5 bWAR in the past 20 years. So draft evaluation is one thing, but there's plenty of successful R/R first baseman out there that were acquired for quite a bit of (non-draft) resources. Jose Abreu signed for a whole lot of money out of Cuba (albeit as a 27 year old) and I remember that Miguel Cabrera set a Venezuelan record for IFA signing amount (unfortunately, definitely more than 20 years ago - sorry for making anyone feel old). edit: Oh snap! Pete Alonso is a R/R first baseman who I remember falling in the draft to either the second round or the competitive balance rounds or something but he was a pretty hyped prospect because of his track record as a college performer. |
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jun 19, 2024 20:24:23 GMT -5
Famous name because of his brother Jaxon, would be very interested in him in the second or third provided they go with a guy who will sign for a bit under slot early.
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Post by nonothing on Jun 19, 2024 20:41:33 GMT -5
In what world, especially in MLB where players typically 3-5 years to make the big leagues, would you not want to draft the best player (the team's evaluators) that's available? Because there is rarely one best player available after the first few picks. People say they pick the best player available, even when they don't. They pick the guy they think fits best from the guys in the group of the best players available at their spot. In what world do you think they can accurately grade to any probabilistic level of certainty players that are 3-5 yrs from MLB. It's delusional to think the grading is that accurate. So from among the best players available at a certain spot, I believe that. But anybody who thinks they are choosing THE best player available at a spot after pick 10 is fooling themselves. |
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Post by nonothing on Jun 19, 2024 20:43:47 GMT -5
In what world, especially in MLB where players typically 3-5 years to make the big leagues, would you not want to draft the best player (the team's evaluators) that's available? Gun to my head, I'd guess they'd love it if they could pick a pitcher at 12. I don't think they're going to force it, but I think they're going to be mindful of trying to find a way to add impact arms. At some point, there are only so many SS innings to go around... This 100%. |
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Post by nonothing on Jun 19, 2024 20:46:37 GMT -5
Gun to my head, I'd guess they'd love it if they could pick a pitcher at 12. I don't think they're going to force it, but I think they're going to be mindful of trying to find a way to add impact arms. At some point, there are only so many SS innings to go around... No doubt. I think if evaluations are close they'd lean pitching in certain circumstances, like 1st round this year. Curious to see how Breslow and company evaluate this year's pitching. And obviously, signing bonus demands play some factor. And I definitely agree with your point here... which is that signing bonuses matter a lot. So best player available... or best player available given the other players his bonus demands enable me to sign? I think your take here is more nuanced and right on fwiw (which may be nothing) |
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Post by nonothing on Jun 19, 2024 20:53:40 GMT -5
It just puts too much pressure on the bat, and they’re fighting the platoon disadvantage to boot. Batting left at the very least gives you a chance for the strong side of a platoon. Throwing left at least gives you a slight edge defensively, but I’d assume most of this would hold for the Nick Longhi types. Lefty-mashing first basemen just aren’t very valuable. If that prospect only hits a 65th percentile outcome, there’s a good chance they’re not a major leaguer. Not because they’re necessarily a bad player, but because a 110 wRC+ (ETA: with platoon protection) isn’t good enough to dedicate a roster spot to someone if that’s all the player provides. Baseball Reference’s draft tracker doesn’t seem perfect, since my search for first basemen drafted in the first round yielded Christian Yelich, but it appears that the high-water marks for first round R/R first basemen are CJ Cron and…that’s about it. I don’t think I saw another that had amassed 5 bWAR in the past 20 years. So draft evaluation is one thing, but there's plenty of successful R/R first baseman out there that were acquired for quite a bit of (non-draft) resources. Jose Abreu signed for a whole lot of money out of Cuba (albeit as a 27 year old) and I remember that Miguel Cabrera set a Venezuelan record for IFA signing amount (unfortunately, definitely more than 20 years ago - sorry for making anyone feel old). edit: Oh snap! Pete Alonso is a R/R first baseman who I remember falling in the draft to either the second round or the competitive balance rounds or something but he was a pretty hyped prospect because of his track record as a college performer. Miggy was 3B originally, wasn't he? He also played some OF I believe. |
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jun 19, 2024 21:45:07 GMT -5
For what it’s worth (not much), I will be at Game 1 of the CWS on Saturday. If A&M can stop all of its best players from getting hurt and advance, I’ll be at all two or three games in all likelihood, But the exciting part is that, barring a collapse by Tennessee, y’all are gonna get some intricate second base defense reports! Aaaand will now be there for game 2!! |
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Post by larrycook on Jun 20, 2024 19:33:37 GMT -5
My only issue with Tommy White is that I think he ends up at 1st base and R/R 1B have a horrible track record in the 1st round. I’d rather they go in a different direction and let other teams have that. White’s bat and eyes are really good. He can barrel up a golf ball! And he has some power. I would be very happy if we took him at 12! |
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Post by dirtdog on Jun 20, 2024 20:31:51 GMT -5
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Jun 21, 2024 1:51:16 GMT -5
So draft evaluation is one thing, but there's plenty of successful R/R first baseman out there that were acquired for quite a bit of (non-draft) resources. Jose Abreu signed for a whole lot of money out of Cuba (albeit as a 27 year old) and I remember that Miguel Cabrera set a Venezuelan record for IFA signing amount (unfortunately, definitely more than 20 years ago - sorry for making anyone feel old). edit: Oh snap! Pete Alonso is a R/R first baseman who I remember falling in the draft to either the second round or the competitive balance rounds or something but he was a pretty hyped prospect because of his track record as a college performer. Miggy was 3B originally, wasn't he? He also played some OF I believe. At age 17 and 18 in A- and A ball, Cabrera played more games at SS than any other position, like most good athletes who throw right-handed. No games at SS above A-ball. |
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jun 21, 2024 7:18:05 GMT -5
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Jun 21, 2024 7:48:39 GMT -5
The dream slide candidate seems to be Kurtz now. Make it happen baseball gods.
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Jun 21, 2024 8:01:37 GMT -5
The dream slide candidate seems to be Kurtz now. Make it happen baseball gods. I know you don't draft for need in baseball but Kurtz is probably the one guy mocked around the Sox pick that I want the Sox to pick the least. He's a LHH 1st baseman, feel like the Sox have that covered well enough with Casas hopefully for the next 10 years. His #s are good and he sounds like an excellent college hitter so I wouldn't get angry at the pick but wouldn't be my preference anyway. |
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Jun 21, 2024 8:10:39 GMT -5
The dream slide candidate seems to be Kurtz now. Make it happen baseball gods. I know you don't draft for need in baseball but Kurtz is probably the one guy mocked around the Sox pick that I want the Sox to pick the least. He's a LHH 1st baseman, feel like the Sox have that covered well enough with Casas hopefully for the next 10 years. His #s are good and he sounds like an excellent college hitter so I wouldn't get angry at the pick but wouldn't be my preference anyway. Kurtz’s bat is a much safer bet in terms of floor and ceiling than Tibbs, Moore, Smith, etc. Casas has 4 years of control left, and likely only 2 by the time Kurtz is up. Injuries continue to pile up for Casas too. The team has no long term DH, and there’s a possibility that Kurtz could play LF. I think Kurtz has the potential to be one of the best hitters in the game and for that reason I’m willing to look past everything else. He has monster power, an eagle eye, and he makes contact. He’s too good to pass on at 12 if he gets there IMO, but I can understand your take too. |
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Post by markm7 on Jun 21, 2024 9:12:22 GMT -5
I don’t get picking a bat in the first round. They need high level pitching the only way to get it is picking pitchers high
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Jun 21, 2024 9:19:53 GMT -5
I don’t get picking a bat in the first round. They need high level pitching the only way to get it is picking pitchers highA, you don't draft for need in the MLB draft so no just removing all bats from your board in the first round and forcing themselves to draft a pitcher no matter what is bad planning. B, that is not true that the only way to get high level pitching is to draft pitchers high. I mean sure it helps but it sure is not the only way to get it. |
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Post by markm7 on Jun 21, 2024 9:35:44 GMT -5
I don’t get picking a bat in the first round. They need high level pitching the only way to get it is picking pitchers highA, you don't draft for need in the MLB draft so no just removing all bats from your board in the first round and forcing themselves to draft a pitcher no matter what is bad planning. B, that is not true that the only way to get high level pitching is to draft pitchers high. I mean sure it helps but it sure is not the only way to get it. Why is it bad to force yourself to draft a pitcher they have enough infielders and quite honestly haven’t developed any pitching consistently in decades. The only acceptable reason not to is Breslow doesn’t trust the scouting department as a whole which if that’s the case then they should all be let go immediately |
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Jun 21, 2024 9:38:53 GMT -5
A, you don't draft for need in the MLB draft so no just removing all bats from your board in the first round and forcing themselves to draft a pitcher no matter what is bad planning. B, that is not true that the only way to get high level pitching is to draft pitchers high. I mean sure it helps but it sure is not the only way to get it. Why is it bad to force yourself to draft a pitcher they have enough infielders and quite honestly haven’t developed any pitching consistently in decades. The only acceptable reason not to is Breslow doesn’t trust the scouting department as a whole which if that’s the case then they should all be let go immediately It's bad because if the top arms are all off the board and the Sox have bats ranked higher than the next available pitcher you take the bat. Like I said in my opinion it's bad to draft a pitcher just for the sake of drafting a pitcher. If a scenario happens where they have a 2nd round grade on all the remaining pitchers left why would you want them to take a pitcher in the first round? |
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Post by markm7 on Jun 21, 2024 9:43:01 GMT -5
Why is it bad to force yourself to draft a pitcher they have enough infielders and quite honestly haven’t developed any pitching consistently in decades. The only acceptable reason not to is Breslow doesn’t trust the scouting department as a whole which if that’s the case then they should all be let go immediately It's bad because if the top arms are all off the board and the Sox have bats ranked higher than the next available pitcher you take the bat. Like I said in my opinion it's bad to draft a pitcher just for the sake of drafting a pitcher. If a scenario happens where they have a 2nd round grade on all the remaining pitchers left why would you want them to take a pitcher in the first round? If by the chance all 3 college guys and the lefty from Arizona aren’t there at 12 which no mock draft has had yet then that means odds are some high level bat feel which if that’s the case fine take them. But if one of those 4 pitchers are there they should be taken ahead of any second level college bat or one of the top two high schoolers |
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Jun 21, 2024 9:47:36 GMT -5
It's bad because if the top arms are all off the board and the Sox have bats ranked higher than the next available pitcher you take the bat. Like I said in my opinion it's bad to draft a pitcher just for the sake of drafting a pitcher. If a scenario happens where they have a 2nd round grade on all the remaining pitchers left why would you want them to take a pitcher in the first round? If by the chance all 3 college guys and the lefty from Arizona aren’t there at 12 which no mock draft has had yet then that means odds are some high level bat feel which if that’s the case fine take them. But if one of those 4 pitchers are there they should be taken ahead of any second level college bat or one of the top two high schoolers I am firmly on the best player available mindset, so yes I agree that if at pick 12 that ends up being a P then great I'm all for it. If they have a higher ranking on an available bat then take the bat. I would say that yes ideally that BPA does end up being one of the college Ps, that would be my preference so we aren't that far off in thought process. |
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Post by scottysmalls on Jun 21, 2024 9:57:56 GMT -5
A, you don't draft for need in the MLB draft so no just removing all bats from your board in the first round and forcing themselves to draft a pitcher no matter what is bad planning. B, that is not true that the only way to get high level pitching is to draft pitchers high. I mean sure it helps but it sure is not the only way to get it. Why is it bad to force yourself to draft a pitcher they have enough infielders and quite honestly haven’t developed any pitching consistently in decades. The only acceptable reason not to is Breslow doesn’t trust the scouting department as a whole which if that’s the case then they should all be let go immediately They haven’t developed any pitching in decades? Crawford, Bello, and Houck don’t count? And by the way those guys negate the whole idea that to get a starting pitcher you have to take them early in the draft. That’s one first rounder, one 16th rounder and one IFA. |
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Post by scottysmalls on Jun 21, 2024 9:59:54 GMT -5
I know you don't draft for need in baseball but Kurtz is probably the one guy mocked around the Sox pick that I want the Sox to pick the least. He's a LHH 1st baseman, feel like the Sox have that covered well enough with Casas hopefully for the next 10 years. His #s are good and he sounds like an excellent college hitter so I wouldn't get angry at the pick but wouldn't be my preference anyway. Kurtz’s bat is a much safer bet in terms of floor and ceiling than Tibbs, Moore, Smith, etc. Casas has 4 years of control left, and likely only 2 by the time Kurtz is up. Injuries continue to pile up for Casas too. The team has no long term DH, and there’s a possibility that Kurtz could play LF. I think Kurtz has the potential to be one of the best hitters in the game and for that reason I’m willing to look past everything else. He has monster power, an eagle eye, and he makes contact. He’s too good to pass on at 12 if he gets there IMO, but I can understand your take too. Yeah if you get to the point where Kurtz looks like a stud and Casas is elite and you want to keep him it’s a good problem to have. I wouldn’t worry about the overlap at all. |
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Post by ancientsoxfogey on Jun 21, 2024 10:48:16 GMT -5
Kurtz’s bat is a much safer bet in terms of floor and ceiling than Tibbs, Moore, Smith, etc. Casas has 4 years of control left, and likely only 2 by the time Kurtz is up. Injuries continue to pile up for Casas too. The team has no long term DH, and there’s a possibility that Kurtz could play LF. I think Kurtz has the potential to be one of the best hitters in the game and for that reason I’m willing to look past everything else. He has monster power, an eagle eye, and he makes contact. He’s too good to pass on at 12 if he gets there IMO, but I can understand your take too. Yeah if you get to the point where Kurtz looks like a stud and Casas is elite and you want to keep him it’s a good problem to have. I wouldn’t worry about the overlap at all. Wasn't there a commentary in another thread that went like "Trout didn't get to the Sox in his draft year, but if he had, the Sox weren't going to draft him because they had already drafted a comparable talent a year earlier in Westmoreland?" If the Sox's pick arrives and Kurtz and Yesavage are both on the board, what do you do? |
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