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8/11-8/13 Red Sox vs. Tigers Series Thread
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Post by remmartin34 on Aug 14, 2023 16:00:44 GMT -5
E-Rod’s start yesterday reminded me why I was/am glad the Red Sox decided not to give him an eight figure contract for five years. I think they are building a good, young, controllable, affordable pitching staff. It will be worth the time it took IMO. Other than Bello, who are you envisioning as part of this homegrown staff? I ask because imo they're in pretty rough shape, at least from a starting pitching perspective (which is what I assume you mean by pitching staff). The pitchers we've seen so far are probably 5th starter/bulk role types and unless you're still high on Drohan the reinforcements are few and very far away. The bullpen and bulk roles are set for the near future which is great, but who other than Bello is filling slots 1-3 in the rotation? The way I see it, three years from now you might have a "Bello, Perales and hope for rain" type of homegrown staff if they're lucky. Otherwise they're going to have to buy their rotation. Not that it's a bad situation, they should have the resources to buy the rotation if they can't build it. Just curious what you see that I don't. ^^^^Agreed. I've said it a number of times now... Outside of Brayan Bello (which I've actually come to realize isn't true, because he hasn't even completed a major league season), the Red Sox have no pitchers locked onto the 2024 roster at this point that have demonstrated that they can be effective/good STARTERS over the course of an entire season (Houck/Whitlock/Crawford), or who they can rely on to stay healthy for a full season (Sale/Whitlock/Paxton if he were to come back on a QO). If Chaim is unwilling to part with Mayer/Anthony under any circumstances, it is unlikely that he will be able to complete a deal for a pitcher under control of the Logan Gilbert/Dylan Cease caliber. That means that unless you want to go into next season with essentially 4 question marks for 5 rotation spots, and you actually intend to compete for a World Series... You're almost certainly going to have to sign Yamamoto for $200+ million, and pick the route you want to go in terms of risk on another top-tier starter.. such as Blake Snell - 6 years, $140+ million (high risk) Eduardo Rodriguez (or someone similar like Montgomery)- 5 years, $90-100 million (medium risk)
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Aug 14, 2023 18:10:15 GMT -5
Crawford, Whitlock and Houck all run FIPs as starters this year that would make them mid-rotation guys if they can maintain it over a full season. Even Walter and Murphy haven’t looked bad, Drohan is a dark horse. So much better than the Lester/Buchholz to Bello interregnum that consisted of E-Rod (trade)and Brian Johnson/Velazquez for a decade. Our rotation outside of Sale is like $10M this year (minus Kluber not contributing anything), so it’s moving in the right direction Murphy has at times been amazing. He had one outing he got killed but otherwise has kept us in this race.
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Post by taiwansox on Aug 14, 2023 18:16:06 GMT -5
Even Walter and Murphy haven’t looked bad, Drohan is a dark horse. So much better than the Lester/Buchholz to Bello interregnum that consisted of E-Rod (trade)and Brian Johnson/Velazquez for a decade. Our rotation outside of Sale is like $10M this year (minus Kluber not contributing anything), so it’s moving in the right direction Murphy has at times been amazing. He had one outing he got killed but otherwise has kept us in this race. It’s amazing how well he’s taken to the pen
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Post by remmartin34 on Aug 15, 2023 9:00:35 GMT -5
Even Walter and Murphy haven’t looked bad, Drohan is a dark horse. So much better than the Lester/Buchholz to Bello interregnum that consisted of E-Rod (trade)and Brian Johnson/Velazquez for a decade. Our rotation outside of Sale is like $10M this year (minus Kluber not contributing anything), so it’s moving in the right direction Murphy has at times been amazing. He had one outing he got killed but otherwise has kept us in this race. That's all great stuff. And I absolutely love Murph. But again.. which pitcher on the roster that will head into the 2024 season, as of now, has the pedigree/durability/lack of injury history to be relied upon to start for a full major league season? Outside of Bello (which is honestly generous given that he hasn't completed a full season and does not even have 200 IP under his belt), I don't think the Red Sox have a single starter locked into their roster as of now they can pencil in for their rotation in 2024 that fit that criteria.
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manfred
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Post by manfred on Aug 15, 2023 9:58:24 GMT -5
Murphy has at times been amazing. He had one outing he got killed but otherwise has kept us in this race. That's all great stuff. And I absolutely love Murph. But again.. which pitcher on the roster that will head into the 2024 season, as of now, has the pedigree/durability/lack of injury history to be relied upon to start for a full major league season? Outside of Bello (which is honestly generous given that he hasn't completed a full season and does not even have 200 IP under his belt), I don't think the Red Sox have a single starter locked into their roster as of now they can pencil in for their rotation in 2024 that fit that criteria. It is likely a matter of how you see those criteria… if you are really strict, I suspect you could narrow a lot of teams’ staffs. For one thing, you mention 200 innings, which is a huge number these days. More and more it seems like 25 starts and 150 innings is at least adequate. I think Crawford certainly looks like a fine bet to be a backend starter — as much as most teams have. Houck also seems like a fine backend starter. He at last checks your three boxes… high pick, seems durable, injury this year was a fluke. If someone said the rotation was x, Bello, x, x, Houck, Crawford… with Sale, Whitlock, maybe Pivetta on the roster… I’d say that is at least a good foundation. Now… I’d *love* to have some lights-out #1 up front. But, again, who wouldn’t and how do you get one?
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Post by remmartin34 on Aug 15, 2023 10:39:49 GMT -5
That's all great stuff. And I absolutely love Murph. But again.. which pitcher on the roster that will head into the 2024 season, as of now, has the pedigree/durability/lack of injury history to be relied upon to start for a full major league season? Outside of Bello (which is honestly generous given that he hasn't completed a full season and does not even have 200 IP under his belt), I don't think the Red Sox have a single starter locked into their roster as of now they can pencil in for their rotation in 2024 that fit that criteria. It is likely a matter of how you see those criteria… if you are really strict, I suspect you could narrow a lot of teams’ staffs. For one thing, you mention 200 innings, which is a huge number these days. More and more it seems like 25 starts and 150 innings is at least adequate. I think Crawford certainly looks like a fine bet to be a backend starter — as much as most teams have. Houck also seems like a fine backend starter. He at last checks your three boxes… high pick, seems durable, injury this year was a fluke. If someone said the rotation was x, Bello, x, x, Houck, Crawford… with Sale, Whitlock, maybe Pivetta on the roster… I’d say that is at least a good foundation. Now… I’d *love* to have some lights-out #1 up front. But, again, who wouldn’t and how do you get one? I meant Bello doesn't have 200 total IP in his MLB career thus far.. And he's the one guy that a majority of people on this forum and elsewhere seem to be penciling into the rotation, with solid (and reasonable) expectations that he will give you 25+ starts. Obviously cannot say that about Sale. Cannot say that about Paxton even if the Sox do give him a QO and he accepts. Cannot say that about Whitlock, as it is almost certain that he is destined for the bullpen at this stage. Regardless of the fact that he provides more value as a starter to a team that's short on starters, it has become abundantly clear in my view that his body/arm cannot handle the role long-term. And he's also just incredibly more effective out of the bullpen. Cannot say that about Houck. He still has yet to shake off the notion that he can be reliable for more than 4-5 inning starts. It looked like he might have been approaching that territory before he got his face smashed in, but it's still TBD. Cannot say that about Crawford. Guy has been incredible in the weight he's been asked to carry with all of the injuries. That being said, he was miserable when they first tried him out as a starter this year. Then was a whole different guy out in the bullpen. His numbers have been that of a #4 starter since he's been back in the rotation, but there has been a NOTICEABLE decline in his average fastball velocity over the last 5-6 starts, and he's been getting knocked out of games earlier and earlier with fewer pitches thrown. Cannot say that about Pivetta. Even with how dynamic he's been in the role they've asked him to play this year. He has never had a consistent year in a rotation, with 20+ starts, where he had better than a 4.55 ERA. His career ERA as a starter is 5.01. That's not rotation material. Period. ..... If you want to play the mix and match game again next year.. well... you get the same result as this year, right?
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Post by scottysmalls on Aug 15, 2023 11:05:21 GMT -5
It is likely a matter of how you see those criteria… if you are really strict, I suspect you could narrow a lot of teams’ staffs. For one thing, you mention 200 innings, which is a huge number these days. More and more it seems like 25 starts and 150 innings is at least adequate. I think Crawford certainly looks like a fine bet to be a backend starter — as much as most teams have. Houck also seems like a fine backend starter. He at last checks your three boxes… high pick, seems durable, injury this year was a fluke. If someone said the rotation was x, Bello, x, x, Houck, Crawford… with Sale, Whitlock, maybe Pivetta on the roster… I’d say that is at least a good foundation. Now… I’d *love* to have some lights-out #1 up front. But, again, who wouldn’t and how do you get one? I meant Bello doesn't have 200 total IP in his MLB career thus far.. And he's the one guy that a majority of people on this forum and elsewhere seem to be penciling into the rotation, with solid (and reasonable) expectations that he will give you 25+ starts. Obviously cannot say that about Sale. Cannot say that about Paxton even if the Sox do give him a QO and he accepts. Cannot say that about Whitlock, as it is almost certain that he is destined for the bullpen at this stage. Regardless of the fact that he provides more value as a starter to a team that's short on starters, it has become abundantly clear in my view that his body/arm cannot handle the role long-term. And he's also just incredibly more effective out of the bullpen. Cannot say that about Houck. He still has yet to shake off the notion that he can be reliable for more than 4-5 inning starts. It looked like he might have been approaching that territory before he got his face smashed in, but it's still TBD. Cannot say that about Crawford. Guy has been incredible in the weight he's been asked to carry with all of the injuries. That being said, he was miserable when they first tried him out as a starter this year. Then was a whole different guy out in the bullpen. His numbers have been that of a #4 starter since he's been back in the rotation, but there has been a NOTICEABLE decline in his average fastball velocity over the last 5-6 starts, and he's been getting knocked out of games earlier and earlier with fewer pitches thrown. Cannot say that about Pivetta. Even with how dynamic he's been in the role they've asked him to play this year. He has never had a consistent year in a rotation, with 20+ starts, where he had better than a 4.55 ERA. His career ERA as a starter is 5.01. That's not rotation material. Period. ..... If you want to play the mix and match game again next year.. well... you get the same result as this year, right? Not necessarily, no. Also just to address Pivetta, his last three seasons he has had ERAs of 4.53, 4.56, 4.16. What he did on the Phillies prior to 2020 is entirely irrelevant to projecting him moving forward, he's fine as the 6 starter on the depth chart (which is what he would be if all they do is sign one FA).
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Post by remmartin34 on Aug 15, 2023 11:31:56 GMT -5
Right... a 6th starter on a depth chart.. which is fine. Except I am talking exclusively about the five man rotation outlook for next year, and directing my question at people who think that adding one mediocre free agent (a la Corey Kluber) is going give them a much better projection than they had going into this year (78 wins).
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Aug 15, 2023 11:39:39 GMT -5
Right... a 6th starter on a depth chart.. which is fine. Except I am talking exclusively about the five man rotation outlook for next year, and directing my question at people who think that adding one mediocre free agent (a la Corey Kluber) is going give them a much better projection than they had going into this year (78 wins). Has anyone actually advocated for that? Obviously they didn't get the results they wanted from Kluber but even if they had gotten the intended result of a mediocre 5th starter that'll eat innings and that can keep you in most games I personally have no interest in the thought of them adding another Kluber/Richards type SP this offseason. My thought is that they need two legitimate SP acquisitions, pick your poison so to speak since there are some good options in FA anyway. While I'd like one of the Nola/Yamamoto tier of SP I'd be also fine if the two SPs ended up being something like Giolito and Montgomery or two guys from that tier. I might be shooting too high in terms of my hopes for SPs this offseason though.
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Post by scottysmalls on Aug 15, 2023 11:58:17 GMT -5
Right... a 6th starter on a depth chart.. which is fine. Except I am talking exclusively about the five man rotation outlook for next year, and directing my question at people who think that adding one mediocre free agent (a la Corey Kluber) is going give them a much better projection than they had going into this year (78 wins). Has anyone actually advocated for that? Obviously they didn't get the results they wanted from Kluber but even if they had gotten the intended result of a mediocre 5th starter that'll eat innings and that can keep you in most games I personally have no interest in the thought of them adding another Kluber/Richards type SP this offseason. My thought is that they need two legitimate SP acquisitions, pick your poison so to speak since there are some good options in FA anyway. While I'd like one of the Nola/Yamamoto tier of SP I'd be also fine if the two SPs ended up being something like Giolito and Montgomery or two guys from that tier. I might be shooting too high in terms of my hopes for SPs this offseason though. With Sale/Bello/Crawford/Whitlock/Houck/Pivetta on the staff I only see really room for one SP free agent at least of the definitely-locked-in-for-a-rotation-spot tier, especially if Paxton also returns. An upper tier guy (Yamamoto/Urias/Nola) and a guy like Rich Hill/Lance Lynn to compete could be fine, or like Flaherty and Lorenzen level guys, or maybe there's a trade. I could see the Brewers being interested in moving Corbin Burnes. Crawford or Houck for Burnes might be something they'd look at.
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Post by remmartin34 on Aug 15, 2023 12:34:36 GMT -5
Has anyone actually advocated for that? Obviously they didn't get the results they wanted from Kluber but even if they had gotten the intended result of a mediocre 5th starter that'll eat innings and that can keep you in most games I personally have no interest in the thought of them adding another Kluber/Richards type SP this offseason. My thought is that they need two legitimate SP acquisitions, pick your poison so to speak since there are some good options in FA anyway. While I'd like one of the Nola/Yamamoto tier of SP I'd be also fine if the two SPs ended up being something like Giolito and Montgomery or two guys from that tier. I might be shooting too high in terms of my hopes for SPs this offseason though. With Sale/Bello/Crawford/Whitlock/Houck/Pivetta on the staff I only see really room for one SP free agent at least of the definitely-locked-in-for-a-rotation-spot tier, especially if Paxton also returns. An upper tier guy (Yamamoto/Urias/Nola) and a guy like Rich Hill/Lance Lynn to compete could be fine, or like Flaherty and Lorenzen level guys, or maybe there's a trade. I could see the Brewers being interested in moving Corbin Burnes. Crawford or Houck for Burnes might be something they'd look at. If the Brewers were going to trade Corbin Burnes, they'd want a major league ready arm like Houck, and then one of Mayer/Anthony and probably more (even with Burnes going into his final year of arbitration). I don't think most people on this forum understand the degree to which non-UFA pitching is now valued in MLB. Corbin Burnes is a Cy Young caliber pitcher, and Tanner Houck is... TBD. If you go in the direction of a rotation like... 1. Bello 2. Sale 3. Flaherty (who is probably the worst mid-tier option, #3ish starter out there, in my opinion) 4. Houck 5. Crawford Your ceiling is that of an ~87 win team.. AND you will almost certainly have a minimum of one bullpen game come July, possibly two bullpen games (due to injuries/lack of depth)
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manfred
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Post by manfred on Aug 15, 2023 12:43:50 GMT -5
With Sale/Bello/Crawford/Whitlock/Houck/Pivetta on the staff I only see really room for one SP free agent at least of the definitely-locked-in-for-a-rotation-spot tier, especially if Paxton also returns. An upper tier guy (Yamamoto/Urias/Nola) and a guy like Rich Hill/Lance Lynn to compete could be fine, or like Flaherty and Lorenzen level guys, or maybe there's a trade. I could see the Brewers being interested in moving Corbin Burnes. Crawford or Houck for Burnes might be something they'd look at. If the Brewers were going to trade Corbin Burnes, they'd want a major league ready arm like Houck, and then one of Mayer/Anthony and probably more (even with Burnes going into his final year of arbitration). I don't think most people on this forum understand the degree to which non-UFA pitching is now valued in MLB. Corbin Burnes is a Cy Young caliber pitcher, and Tanner Houck is... TBD. If you go in the direction of a rotation like... 1. Bello 2. Sale 3. Flaherty (who is probably the worst mid-tier option, #3ish starter out there, in my opinion) 4. Houck 5. Crawford Your ceiling is that of an ~87 win team.. AND you will almost certainly have a minimum of one bullpen game come July, possibly two bullpen games (due to injuries/lack of depth) Hey, man, I’m bearish on the whole enterprise, but… Bello, Sale, Houck, Crawford, plus 1… that is not *ceiling* 87 wins, because best-case scenario has Sale and Bello as an elite 1-2 punch. Best case scenario for Houck and Crawford as 4/5 can’t be anywhere below league average. So if that foursome hits its ceiling, the team is in business. Now… ceilings are rarely reached. (Think ceiling pre-season for the Yankees staff!). But if Sale ends this season healthy, it is not crazy to hope he gets 25 starts next year. If you get 55 starts from Sale and Bello, and if they are who they can be… that has to one of the better fronts in the league.
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Post by scottysmalls on Aug 15, 2023 12:48:25 GMT -5
With Sale/Bello/Crawford/Whitlock/Houck/Pivetta on the staff I only see really room for one SP free agent at least of the definitely-locked-in-for-a-rotation-spot tier, especially if Paxton also returns. An upper tier guy (Yamamoto/Urias/Nola) and a guy like Rich Hill/Lance Lynn to compete could be fine, or like Flaherty and Lorenzen level guys, or maybe there's a trade. I could see the Brewers being interested in moving Corbin Burnes. Crawford or Houck for Burnes might be something they'd look at. If the Brewers were going to trade Corbin Burnes, they'd want a major league ready arm like Houck, and then one of Mayer/Anthony and probably more (even with Burnes going into his final year of arbitration). I don't think most people on this forum understand the degree to which non-UFA pitching is now valued in MLB. Corbin Burnes is a Cy Young caliber pitcher, and Tanner Houck is... TBD. If you go in the direction of a rotation like... 1. Bello 2. Sale 3. Flaherty (who is probably the worst mid-tier option, #3ish starter out there, in my opinion) 4. Houck 5. Crawford Your ceiling is that of an ~87 win team.. AND you will almost certainly have a minimum of one bullpen game come July, possibly two bullpen games (due to injuries/lack of depth) Burnes has been trending down noticeably the last two years, he's not an elite ace type any more and he's going in the wrong direction. I imagine he'll make around $20M, and the Brewers are notoriously cheap. Maybe they don't take Crawford straight up for him but I don't think you need to attach Mayer either. The scenario I presented was Flaherty AND Lorenzen anyways and I also disagree with the bullpen game point, because in that scenario you have Whitlock, Pivetta and Houck or Crawford who could be ramped back up to starters. I disagree on the win ceiling anyways though, every single year teams win 90+ games with below average starting pitching staffs, and that staff clearly has above average potential.
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Post by remmartin34 on Aug 15, 2023 13:11:26 GMT -5
If the Brewers were going to trade Corbin Burnes, they'd want a major league ready arm like Houck, and then one of Mayer/Anthony and probably more (even with Burnes going into his final year of arbitration). I don't think most people on this forum understand the degree to which non-UFA pitching is now valued in MLB. Corbin Burnes is a Cy Young caliber pitcher, and Tanner Houck is... TBD. If you go in the direction of a rotation like... 1. Bello 2. Sale 3. Flaherty (who is probably the worst mid-tier option, #3ish starter out there, in my opinion) 4. Houck 5. Crawford Your ceiling is that of an ~87 win team.. AND you will almost certainly have a minimum of one bullpen game come July, possibly two bullpen games (due to injuries/lack of depth) Burnes has been trending down noticeably the last two years, he's not an elite ace type any more and he's going in the wrong direction. I imagine he'll make around $20M, and the Brewers are notoriously cheap. Maybe they don't take Crawford straight up for him but I don't think you need to attach Mayer either. The scenario I presented was Flaherty AND Lorenzen anyways and I also disagree with the bullpen game point, because in that scenario you have Whitlock, Pivetta and Houck or Crawford who could be ramped back up to starters. I disagree on the win ceiling anyways though, every single year teams win 90+ games with below average starting pitching staffs, and that staff clearly has above average potential. Haha alright I'm going to stop at this point, because the fact that you even think Kutter Crawford for Corbin Burnes would be a starting point for a trade conversation is.. extraordinarily off-base, to keep it as tempered as I humanly can at the moment. If Bloom called up with that proposal, the Brewers would hang up the phone and never answer another call from him. Corbin Burnes Stats in 2022 2.94 ERA 0.97 WHIP 243 SO (#1 in MLB) 202 IP (#5 in MLB) 3.05 xERA Sure, his numbers have been worse the last two years... However, that's relative to one of the most dominant pitching seasons (in 2021) since Chris Sale's 300K season.. Is this year a definite step back for him up to now? Without a doubt. But he's actually gotten back on track in his last 7 starts (2.68 ERA, 0.98 WHIP). And for the season on the whole, he is still top-5 in MLB in WHIP, IP and top-15 in SO Not to mention his 2023 Baseball Savant page... Average Exit Velo- 90th Percentile xSLG- 86th Percentile Barrel %- 85th Percentile I mean if that's as bad is it gets for the guy.... Jesus I feel as though you may want to do more research on starting pitching, generally..
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Post by scottysmalls on Aug 15, 2023 13:41:31 GMT -5
Burnes has been trending down noticeably the last two years, he's not an elite ace type any more and he's going in the wrong direction. I imagine he'll make around $20M, and the Brewers are notoriously cheap. Maybe they don't take Crawford straight up for him but I don't think you need to attach Mayer either. The scenario I presented was Flaherty AND Lorenzen anyways and I also disagree with the bullpen game point, because in that scenario you have Whitlock, Pivetta and Houck or Crawford who could be ramped back up to starters. I disagree on the win ceiling anyways though, every single year teams win 90+ games with below average starting pitching staffs, and that staff clearly has above average potential. Haha alright I'm going to stop at this point, because the fact that you even think Kutter Crawford for Corbin Burnes would be a starting point for a trade conversation is.. extraordinarily off-base, to keep it as tempered as I humanly can at the moment. If Bloom called up with that proposal, the Brewers would hang up the phone and never answer another call from him. Corbin Burnes Stats in 2022 2.94 ERA 0.97 WHIP 243 SO (#1 in MLB) 202 IP (#5 in MLB) 3.05 xERA Sure, his numbers have been worse the last two years... However, that's relative to one of the most dominant pitching seasons (in 2021) since Chris Sale's 300K season.. Is this year a definite step back for him up to now? Without a doubt. But he's actually gotten back on track in his last 7 starts (2.68 ERA, 0.98 WHIP). And for the season on the whole, he is still top-5 in MLB in WHIP, IP and top-15 in SO Not to mention his 2023 Baseball Savant page... Average Exit Velo- 90th Percentile xSLG- 86th Percentile Barrel %- 85th Percentile I mean if that's as bad is it gets for the guy.... Jesus I feel as though you may want to do more research on starting pitching, generally.. I might be dismissing Burnes a little too much based on his trajectory, but his FIP dropped 1.5 runs from 2021 to 2022, and another 0.8 so far from 2022 to 2023, his ERA and xERA have fallen in the same manner. His FB velocity is down 1 MPH from 2021 and his K and BB rates have both declined too. His stuff modeling numbers have also dropped across the board each year too. His pitching bot rating this year matches Crawfords, and Crawford's modeled ERA is actually lower. And part of the point is he's trending worse.. what if this isn't as bad as it gets? Burnes is still a good pitcher, but on a 1/20 deal Crawford on the minimum controlled through 2028 isn't a crazy starting point. You add in one of the Red Sox back end t-100 guys and it feels pretty reasonable to me. It depends what the Brewers want though, I looked at them because they are historically cheap and may be willing to sacrifice present for future value, but if they just want to maximize their odds in 2024 of course they'll keep Burnes and Woodruff.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Aug 15, 2023 13:46:22 GMT -5
Haha alright I'm going to stop at this point, because the fact that you even think Kutter Crawford for Corbin Burnes would be a starting point for a trade conversation is.. extraordinarily off-base, to keep it as tempered as I humanly can at the moment. If Bloom called up with that proposal, the Brewers would hang up the phone and never answer another call from him. Corbin Burnes Stats in 2022 2.94 ERA 0.97 WHIP 243 SO (#1 in MLB) 202 IP (#5 in MLB) 3.05 xERA Sure, his numbers have been worse the last two years... However, that's relative to one of the most dominant pitching seasons (in 2021) since Chris Sale's 300K season.. Is this year a definite step back for him up to now? Without a doubt. But he's actually gotten back on track in his last 7 starts (2.68 ERA, 0.98 WHIP). And for the season on the whole, he is still top-5 in MLB in WHIP, IP and top-15 in SO Not to mention his 2023 Baseball Savant page... Average Exit Velo- 90th Percentile xSLG- 86th Percentile Barrel %- 85th Percentile I mean if that's as bad is it gets for the guy.... Jesus I feel as though you may want to do more research on starting pitching, generally.. I might be dismissing Burnes a little too much based on his trajectory, but his FIP dropped 1.5 runs from 2021 to 2022, and another 0.8 so far from 2022 to 2023, his ERA and xERA have fallen in the same manner. His FB velocity is down 1 MPH from 2021 and his K and BB rates have both declined too. His stuff modeling numbers have also dropped across the board each year too. His pitching bot rating this year matches Crawfords, and Crawford's modeled ERA is actually lower. And part of the point is he's trending worse.. what if this isn't as bad as it gets? Burnes is still a good pitcher, but on a 1/20 deal Crawford on the minimum controlled through 2028 isn't a crazy starting point. You add in one of the Red Sox back end t-100 guys and it feels pretty reasonable to me. It depends what the Brewers want though, I looked at them because they are historically cheap and may be willing to sacrifice present for future value, but if they just want to maximize their odds in 2024 of course they'll keep Burnes and Woodruff. I think a starting point of Crawford is still probably a little light (I think the Brewers would probably treat him as still having some semblance of ace upside in talks), but given his relative decline and contract status I think that's a way more reasonable starting point than Mayer or Anthony as the other poster suggested, for sure.
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