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9/26-9/27 Red Sox vs. Rays Series Thread
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Sept 27, 2023 10:09:46 GMT -5
or we could be missing the playoffs for the next 5 years, thereby missing out best chance for a playoff team this year, because he didn't trade for starting pitching this deadline. It isn't like this roster right now is guaranteed of anything that I can see. We are gonna have a losing record for the second year in a row. There are some nice pieces, but there is sh*t ton of work to do. You could go 6 ways to Sunday on all this stuff. It isn't like he saying something that wasn't being said by a lot people, including this board. I don't get being so dismissive of the labor to the point of disqualifying them from their opinion, which is kind of what you are doing here. Beyond whether he is right or wrong, these guys don't play 162 games for just the fun of it, they want to win. We're 10 games out of the playoffs. Every single starting pitcher moved at the deadline except for one has been bad. This is weak stuff. Kenley's entitled to his opinion this is just a stupid one (and lol at making it a thing about the "labor") and plenty of stupid opinions are widely held. Decisions made don't have linear outcomes. You take a left turn at the intersection, you will have a different outcome than taking a right turn. I like what you bring to the site, but you, and others, are of the opinion that the GM has to save the players from themselves. That is BS. That is the managers job. The GM's job is to run a healthy organization long term and win in the short term, where ever possible. That is it. If you are gonna hang your hat on they shouldn't have traded for starting pitching because they are 10 games out now, you have lost the debate, I don't mind saying. At 56-47 (or whatever record was), and in the thick of it, it was time to take a risk.
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Post by manfred on Sept 27, 2023 10:10:21 GMT -5
or we could be missing the playoffs for the next 5 years, thereby missing out best chance for a playoff team this year, because he didn't trade for starting pitching this deadline. It isn't like this roster right now is guaranteed of anything that I can see. We are gonna have a losing record for the second year in a row. There are some nice pieces, but there is sh*t ton of work to do. You could go 6 ways to Sunday on all this stuff. It isn't like he saying something that wasn't being said by a lot people, including this board. I don't get being so dismissive of the labor to the point of disqualifying them from their opinion, which is kind of what you are doing here. Beyond whether he is right or wrong, these guys don't play 162 games for just the fun of it, they want to win. We're 10 games out of the playoffs. Every single starting pitcher moved at the deadline except for one has been bad. This is weak stuff. Kenley's entitled to his opinion this is just a stupid one (and lol at making it a thing about the "labor") and plenty of stupid opinions are widely held. Well, that is another take that looks bad for the former boss… the team was so bad it was unhelpable at the deadline. Of course, once you have put together said crap team, maybe you try to get future value for a guy like Jensen? No just freeze?
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Post by scottysmalls on Sept 27, 2023 10:15:49 GMT -5
We're 10 games out of the playoffs. Every single starting pitcher moved at the deadline except for one has been bad. This is weak stuff. Kenley's entitled to his opinion this is just a stupid one (and lol at making it a thing about the "labor") and plenty of stupid opinions are widely held. Well, that is another take that looks bad for the former boss… the team was so bad it was unhelpable at the deadline. Of course, once you have put together said crap team, maybe you try to get future value for a guy like Jensen? No just freeze? I'm not talking about Chaim at all, and I said previously that "if anything he should have traded Jansen"
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Post by incandenza on Sept 27, 2023 10:17:22 GMT -5
or we could be missing the playoffs for the next 5 years, thereby missing out best chance for a playoff team this year, because he didn't trade for starting pitching this deadline. It isn't like this roster right now is guaranteed of anything that I can see. We are gonna have a losing record for the second year in a row. There are some nice pieces, but there is sh*t ton of work to do. You could go 6 ways to Sunday on all this stuff. It isn't like he isn't saying what almost everyone else, including this board. I don't get being so dismissive of the labor to the point of disqualifying them from their opinion, which is kind of what you are doing here. Beyond whether he is right or wrong, these guys don't play 162 games for just the fun of it, they want to win. It is interesting it is a guy in his first year. Bloom allegedly assured Kiké they’d compete. Folks around here have wondered about issues regarding FA recruiting, but if your FO tells FAs you are going to be good… then doesn’t follow through… that probably doesn’t help. Kenley has few years left. Does he care what A-ball guys get sent to win now?
If you want to sign FAs — many of whom are closer to the end than the beginning — you need them to believe you are serious about the present. This is exactly to the point though - current MLB players are never going to give a crap about building up the farm system. And why should they? All their incentives are aligned with being as good as possible right now, and certainly for a 36 year old guy on a two-year deal. But quite obviously it is the GM's job to care about what A-ball guys get traded away.
Kenley, incidentally, has the worst WPA of his career; also his worst xERA and xFIP and second worst FIP and ERA. Perhaps if he'd been better the team could have been in position to be buyers at the deadline.
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Post by scottysmalls on Sept 27, 2023 10:17:32 GMT -5
We're 10 games out of the playoffs. Every single starting pitcher moved at the deadline except for one has been bad. This is weak stuff. Kenley's entitled to his opinion this is just a stupid one (and lol at making it a thing about the "labor") and plenty of stupid opinions are widely held. Decisions made don't have linear outcomes. You take a left turn at the intersection, you will have a different outcome than taking a right turn. I like what you bring to the site, but you, and others, are of the opinion that the GM has to save the players from themselves. That is BS. That is the managers job. The GM's job is to run a healthy organization long term and win in the short term, where ever possible. That is it. If you are gonna hang your hat on they shouldn't have traded for starting pitching because they are 10 games out now, you have lost the debate, I don't mind saying. At 56-47 (or whatever record was), and in the thick of it, it was time to take a risk. Alright jer, agree to disagree. None of the starting pitchers moved at the deadline would have made a difference except for literally one, and even he wouldn't have likely been enough and that's just a fact
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Post by ematz1423 on Sept 27, 2023 10:24:04 GMT -5
Decisions made don't have linear outcomes. You take a left turn at the intersection, you will have a different outcome than taking a right turn. I like what you bring to the site, but you, and others, are of the opinion that the GM has to save the players from themselves. That is BS. That is the managers job. The GM's job is to run a healthy organization long term and win in the short term, where ever possible. That is it. If you are gonna hang your hat on they shouldn't have traded for starting pitching because they are 10 games out now, you have lost the debate, I don't mind saying. At 56-47 (or whatever record was), and in the thick of it, it was time to take a risk. Alright jer, agree to disagree. None of the starting pitchers moved at the deadline would have made a difference except for literally one, and even he wouldn't have likely been enough and that's just a fact Well, this isn't necessarily true. There's also Civale but I agree with the overall thought that even if the Sox had the foresight to trade for both Civale and Montgomery does it make up the difference between them being in the playoffs or not? No it doesn't. Civale would have been nice to have for next couple of seasons though.
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Post by scottysmalls on Sept 27, 2023 10:33:51 GMT -5
Alright jer, agree to disagree. None of the starting pitchers moved at the deadline would have made a difference except for literally one, and even he wouldn't have likely been enough and that's just a fact Well, this isn't necessarily true. There's also Civale but I agree with the overall thought that even if the Sox had the foresight to trade for both Civale and Montgomery does it make up the difference between them being in the playoffs or not? No it doesn't. Civale would have been nice to have for next couple of seasons though. Civale is a good point, but wasn't the rumor he'd cost Casas or Mayer?
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Post by manfred on Sept 27, 2023 10:36:05 GMT -5
It is interesting it is a guy in his first year. Bloom allegedly assured Kiké they’d compete. Folks around here have wondered about issues regarding FA recruiting, but if your FO tells FAs you are going to be good… then doesn’t follow through… that probably doesn’t help. Kenley has few years left. Does he care what A-ball guys get sent to win now?
If you want to sign FAs — many of whom are closer to the end than the beginning — you need them to believe you are serious about the present. This is exactly to the point though - current MLB players are never going to give a crap about building up the farm system. And why should they? All their incentives are aligned with being as good as possible right now, and certainly for a 36 year old guy on a two-year deal. But quite obviously it is the GM's job to care about what A-ball guys get traded away.
Kenley, incidentally, has the worst WPA of his career; also his worst xERA and xFIP and second worst FIP and ERA. Perhaps if he'd been better the team could have been in position to be buyers at the deadline.
Sure. But my point is if you tell vets you’ll compete, then you don’t — and they feel you are not trying… it isn’t a question of what is objectively wise. It is perception, and it might influence your ability to negotiate in the future. It is interesting that Bloom is viewed as Mr. Integrity, and he may well be, but veterans have felt a bit burned the last couple of years.
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Post by ematz1423 on Sept 27, 2023 10:40:39 GMT -5
Well, this isn't necessarily true. There's also Civale but I agree with the overall thought that even if the Sox had the foresight to trade for both Civale and Montgomery does it make up the difference between them being in the playoffs or not? No it doesn't. Civale would have been nice to have for next couple of seasons though. Civale is a good point, but wasn't the rumor he'd cost Casas or Mayer? They dealt Manzardo for him who as far as I can tell is a tail end top 100 guy. I doubt Civale would have cost either Casas or Mayer but it wouldn't have been cheap either.
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Post by incandenza on Sept 27, 2023 10:43:17 GMT -5
Well, this isn't necessarily true. There's also Civale but I agree with the overall thought that even if the Sox had the foresight to trade for both Civale and Montgomery does it make up the difference between them being in the playoffs or not? No it doesn't. Civale would have been nice to have for next couple of seasons though. Civale is a good point, but wasn't the rumor he'd cost Casas or Mayer? Civale has a 5.36 ERA and negative WPA with the Rays. Based on the under-the-hood numbers, it looks like he's pitched well but has just gotten poor results. But that just speaks to the fact that there's so much luck involved in small sample size outcomes that even a major trade deadline addition is only going to marginally improve your playoff odds; no one guy was likely to turn this Red Sox team into a playoff contender.
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Post by fenwaydouble on Sept 27, 2023 10:47:17 GMT -5
That fact that half the fanbase is mad that they didn't sell at the deadline and the other half is mad they didn't buy is evidence of just what a tough spot Bloom was in. If they were three games worse last year and he sells the team off for parts does he still have a job right now?
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Post by ematz1423 on Sept 27, 2023 10:49:45 GMT -5
Civale is a good point, but wasn't the rumor he'd cost Casas or Mayer? Civale has a 5.36 ERA and negative WPA with the Rays. Based on the under-the-hood numbers, it looks like he's pitched well but has just gotten poor results. But that just speaks to the fact that there's so much luck involved in small sample size outcomes that even a major trade deadline addition is only going to marginally improve your playoff odds; no one guy was likely to turn this Red Sox team into a playoff contender.
His FIP is lower in TB than it was in Cleveland and his BABIP has been .374 in TB. seems to me that's some bad luck but even so I agree it's not as if Civale would have been any savior. Just figured I'd point out Civale would have been a good option to try and acquire for the stretch run this season as well as slot into the rotation for the next two. Would I have wanted to give up much more value than one tail end top 100ish prospect for him? No probably not.
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Post by incandenza on Sept 27, 2023 10:52:57 GMT -5
That fact that half the fanbase is mad that they didn't sell at the deadline and the other half is mad they didn't buy is evidence of just what a tough spot Bloom was in. If they were three games worse last year and he sells the team off for parts does he still have a job right now? In two consecutive seasons they had the worst possible trajectory: good enough to be fringe competitors up to the deadline, and after that they faded. It's a scenario that's guaranteed to leave absolutely no one happy no matter what he had done, and it happened twice in a row.
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Post by asm19 on Sept 27, 2023 11:00:57 GMT -5
Civale is a good point, but wasn't the rumor he'd cost Casas or Mayer? Civale has a 5.36 ERA and negative WPA with the Rays. Based on the under-the-hood numbers, it looks like he's pitched well but has just gotten poor results. But that just speaks to the fact that there's so much luck involved in small sample size outcomes that even a major trade deadline addition is only going to marginally improve your playoff odds; no one guy was likely to turn this Red Sox team into a playoff contender.
This is on point. It’s hard to know if you trade for a starter for two months if they’re going to be good… unless you’re Jordan Montgomery, who was awesome after being traded literally LAST YEAR 😃 On the topic of Rays-Sox, I’m going to the game tonight - I’m hoping for a Bello-Glasnow duel
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Post by terriblehondo on Sept 27, 2023 11:48:39 GMT -5
That fact that half the fanbase is mad that they didn't sell at the deadline and the other half is mad they didn't buy is evidence of just what a tough spot Bloom was in. If they were three games worse last year and he sells the team off for parts does he still have a job right now? I thought he should have sold and I think he would still have had a job. Reset the tax, gotten two 2's instead of 4's and dumped Sales contract. Then he might have put a better roster together this year. He would have had more flexibility for sure. But everything would have been reset and they would have had higher picks and more money to sign picks in the draft.
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Post by melvinhoggs on Sept 27, 2023 12:02:05 GMT -5
That fact that half the fanbase is mad that they didn't sell at the deadline and the other half is mad they didn't buy is evidence of just what a tough spot Bloom was in. If they were three games worse last year and he sells the team off for parts does he still have a job right now? In two consecutive seasons they had the worst possible trajectory: good enough to be fringe competitors up to the deadline, and after that they faded. It's a scenario that's guaranteed to leave absolutely no one happy, and it happened twice in a row. I agree about being on the worst possible trajectory (fringe competitiveness) and that undoubtedly was a tough position for management/ownership to be in, but "guaranteed to leave absolutely no one happy" is objectively untrue. Players never like when the team sells, sure, but many fans will accept selling off short-term assets for long-term ones... and there were a lot of people who did not believe in those teams' ability to finish strong without significant acquisitions. Unless you're in the position that like, the Braves are in – I'd argue the only way to guarantee no one is happy is to do nothing (or do very minor tinkering to the edges of the roster). Like I said, it's a tough spot to have to make that call. But someone has to make it. Bloom seemed to be gambling on one of those teams being just good enough to sneak into the playoffs; his gamble didn't pay off and it is what it is.
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Post by manfred on Sept 27, 2023 12:15:16 GMT -5
That fact that half the fanbase is mad that they didn't sell at the deadline and the other half is mad they didn't buy is evidence of just what a tough spot Bloom was in. If they were three games worse last year and he sells the team off for parts does he still have a job right now? Well, he chose “please no one,” which was probably the worst option.
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Post by incandenza on Sept 27, 2023 12:17:01 GMT -5
In two consecutive seasons they had the worst possible trajectory: good enough to be fringe competitors up to the deadline, and after that they faded. It's a scenario that's guaranteed to leave absolutely no one happy, and it happened twice in a row. I agree about being on the worst possible trajectory (fringe competitiveness) and that undoubtedly was a tough position for management/ownership to be in, but "guaranteed to leave absolutely no one happy" is objectively untrue.Players never like when the team sells, sure, but many fans will accept selling off short-term assets for long-term ones... and there were a lot of people who did not believe in those teams' ability to finish strong without significant acquisitions. Unless you're in the position that like, the Braves are in – I'd argue the only way to guarantee no one is happy is to do nothing (or do very minor tinkering to the edges of the roster). Like I said, it's a tough spot to have to make that call. But someone has to make it. Bloom seemed to be gambling on one of those teams being just good enough to sneak into the playoffs; his gamble didn't pay off and it is what it is. I just really strongly disagree with this. In this scenario the Red Sox go into *both* trade deadlines a couple of games out of a wild card spot, with 25-30% playoff odds, then trade away stars, then are terrible down the stretch. There would be something close to a full-scale fan rebellion because the overwhelming narrative would be that Bloom was such an inveterate prospect-hoarder that he flushed away a chance at the playoffs two years in a row just to add a couple of prospects ranked 15th in the system or something. And this would be seen as part of a pattern of nuking the MLB roster in order to add marginal prospects evidenced by the Renfroe, Benintendi, and Betts trades.
And if you think that the players were whiny about the deadlines as it was, imagine in this scenario. They'd be grabbing the pitchforks as well...
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Post by greenmonster on Sept 27, 2023 12:17:42 GMT -5
That fact that half the fanbase is mad that they didn't sell at the deadline and the other half is mad they didn't buy is evidence of just what a tough spot Bloom was in. If they were three games worse last year and he sells the team off for parts does he still have a job right now? The one thing both sides do agree on is that they are mad they didn't win more games
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Post by melvinhoggs on Sept 27, 2023 13:00:29 GMT -5
I agree about being on the worst possible trajectory (fringe competitiveness) and that undoubtedly was a tough position for management/ownership to be in, but "guaranteed to leave absolutely no one happy" is objectively untrue.Players never like when the team sells, sure, but many fans will accept selling off short-term assets for long-term ones... and there were a lot of people who did not believe in those teams' ability to finish strong without significant acquisitions. Unless you're in the position that like, the Braves are in – I'd argue the only way to guarantee no one is happy is to do nothing (or do very minor tinkering to the edges of the roster). Like I said, it's a tough spot to have to make that call. But someone has to make it. Bloom seemed to be gambling on one of those teams being just good enough to sneak into the playoffs; his gamble didn't pay off and it is what it is. I just really strongly disagree with this. In this scenario the Red Sox go into *both* trade deadlines a couple of games out of a wild card spot, with 25-30% playoff odds, then trade away stars, then are terrible down the stretch. There would be something close to a full-scale fan rebellion because the overwhelming narrative would be that Bloom was such an inveterate prospect-hoarder that he flushed away a chance at the playoffs two years in a row just to add a couple of prospects ranked 15th in the system or something. And this would be seen as part of a pattern of nuking the MLB roster in order to add marginal prospects evidenced by the Renfroe, Benintendi, and Betts trades.
And if you think that the players were whiny about the deadlines as it was, imagine in this scenario. They'd be grabbing the pitchforks as well...
I hear your argument – but I strongly disagree with you as well. First of all, there's a scenario where you don't hard sell at both deadlines. Maybe at one he sells and at another he buys, and maybe they make the playoffs on the buying year. I'm not saying that was a guarantee by any stretch of the imagination, but it's not inconceivable either given that they were fringe contenders at the deadline(s). Even if he does, the "prospect hoarder" label could be easily remedied if he did something like made a significant trade acquisition in the offseason. In fact, I'd bet that if he did something like that using prospects he acquired by selling at a deadline, he'd be lauded as having made some incredibly shrewd decisions and having vision (obviously contingent on the acquisitions being solid contributors, which again is no guarantee but that's the tough part about making these calls).
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Post by Guidas on Sept 27, 2023 14:09:48 GMT -5
Well, that is another take that looks bad for the former boss… the team was so bad it was unhelpable at the deadline. Of course, once you have put together said crap team, maybe you try to get future value for a guy like Jensen? No just freeze? I'm not talking about Chaim at all, and I said previously that "if anything he should have traded Jansen"They still can this off-season, and should.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Sept 27, 2023 14:13:13 GMT -5
We're 10 games out of the playoffs. Every single starting pitcher moved at the deadline except for one has been bad. This is weak stuff. Kenley's entitled to his opinion this is just a stupid one (and lol at making it a thing about the "labor") and plenty of stupid opinions are widely held. Well, that is another take that looks bad for the former boss… the team was so bad it was unhelpable at the deadline. Of course, once you have put together said crap team, maybe you try to get future value for a guy like Jensen? No just freeze? We'll want to be a little more discriminating, I think. The offense has been fine. The number of runs they've scored has been just behind the Orioles and Phillies and above the Reds in the top ten - and the team is seventh in slugging. Abreu only adds to that. On the other hand the defense lost them a number of games and the gamble on the starting rotation was a bad hand. Paxton was great till he wasn't, brought down once again by health and workload. Sale is just getting back into form. Kluber was a placekeeper. Whitlock and Houck both missed time and have been inconsistent. Bello has been good but the 157 innings pitched have probably started to wear on him. Crawford and Pivetta have been reliable options, but they shouldn't have to carry the load. I convinced myself they had enough starters to shuffle through them as the season wore on. They didn't come close. Readily available and reliable starting pitching is a rare thing as others have pointed out. That was likely a big piece of what cost Bloom his job. The number of chips he would have had to lay on the table to up the ante and make a realistic play would have probably blown a hole in the minor league system. Honestly, I wouldn't want to see Casas, Rafaela, or Abreu doing stuff for another team. Their were assets in the system to trade but I don't see how there were enough to get them where they needed to go short of mortgaging the future.
Their early choices really boxed them in.
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Post by ephus on Sept 27, 2023 15:44:46 GMT -5
Well, that is another take that looks bad for the former boss… the team was so bad it was unhelpable at the deadline. Of course, once you have put together said crap team, maybe you try to get future value for a guy like Jensen? No just freeze? We'll want to be a little more discriminating, I think. The offense has been fine. The number of runs they've scored has been just behind the Orioles and Phillies and above the Reds in the top ten - and the team is seventh in slugging. Abreu only adds to that. On the other hand the defense lost them a number of games and the gamble on the starting rotation was a bad hand. Paxton was great till he wasn't, brought down once again by health and workload. Sale is just getting back into form. Kluber was a placekeeper. Whitlock and Houck both missed time and have been inconsistent. Bello has been good but the 157 innings pitched have probably started to wear on him. Crawford and Pivetta have been reliable options, but they shouldn't have to carry the load. I convinced myself they had enough starters to shuffle through them as the season wore on. They didn't come close. Readily available and reliable starting pitching is a rare thing as others have pointed out. That was likely a big piece of what cost Bloom his job. The number of chips he would have had to lay on the table to up the ante and make a realistic play would have probably blown a hole in the minor league system. Honestly, I wouldn't want to see Casas, Rafaela, or Abreu doing stuff for another team. Their were assets in the system to trade but I don't see how there were enough to get them where they needed to go short of mortgaging the future. Their early choices really boxed them in.
THIS! And this is a really big reason that I am still somewhat surprised they made Chaim the fallguy. At no point in the last two seasons has this team been one or two additions away from being a legitimate contender. The entire plan was to have a farm strong enough to give you foundational pieces and then grow the depth to be able to deal a few parts to fill in the rest. I look at the fall league assignments and I see a few guys that I think are being sent to showcase them because with this year's draft, and the graduation of guys like Casas, Duran, Abreu and Rafaela we are finally getting to the point where we can think about selling some pieces to build around those guys. The fact is we weren't there in July and if we thought we were, it was going to be one or two of Ceddanne, Wilyer, Mayer those guys PLUS. Now, if they see now as that time when they can deal then maybe Chaim's inability to close - or No OnE wAnTs tO dEaL wItH hIm - whatever. My point here is that YES. We are there now, and weren't then, so let's finish out the string get through the postseason and get to work building a winner.
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Post by manfred on Sept 27, 2023 16:29:41 GMT -5
Well, that is another take that looks bad for the former boss… the team was so bad it was unhelpable at the deadline. Of course, once you have put together said crap team, maybe you try to get future value for a guy like Jensen? No just freeze? We'll want to be a little more discriminating, I think. The offense has been fine. The number of runs they've scored has been just behind the Orioles and Phillies and above the Reds in the top ten - and the team is seventh in slugging. Abreu only adds to that. On the other hand the defense lost them a number of games and the gamble on the starting rotation was a bad hand. Paxton was great till he wasn't, brought down once again by health and workload. Sale is just getting back into form. Kluber was a placekeeper. Whitlock and Houck both missed time and have been inconsistent. Bello has been good but the 157 innings pitched have probably started to wear on him. Crawford and Pivetta have been reliable options, but they shouldn't have to carry the load. I convinced myself they had enough starters to shuffle through them as the season wore on. They didn't come close. Readily available and reliable starting pitching is a rare thing as others have pointed out. That was likely a big piece of what cost Bloom his job. The number of chips he would have had to lay on the table to up the ante and make a realistic play would have probably blown a hole in the minor league system. Honestly, I wouldn't want to see Casas, Rafaela, or Abreu doing stuff for another team. Their were assets in the system to trade but I don't see how there were enough to get them where they needed to go short of mortgaging the future.
Their early choices really boxed them in.
Ok… I’ll put it in objective terms: a team that is keeping just ahead of ghe Tigers and Pirates.
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Post by soxfansince67 on Sept 27, 2023 17:27:56 GMT -5
Back from vacation. Watching. Pain already.
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