SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
Patriots 2024 Offseason Thread
|
|
Post by texs31 on Mar 15, 2024 9:31:12 GMT -5
Last year, trading into the #3 pick cost:
#12
#33
24 1st
24 3rd
So if we're talking #11 and #23, the question is whether or not the 25 1st is in play. Probably couldn't also get the 3rd, given the difference between 23 and 33.
That being said, I wonder if the target being a QB changes the math (last year the trade was for Will Anderson)
|
|
cdj
Veteran
Posts: 15,867 
|
Post by cdj on Mar 15, 2024 9:42:27 GMT -5
Those 2 picks and Jefferson I can never tell when you are serious, CDJ. Is that your way of saying your are absolutely convinced that Daniels or Maye is the guy? Yeah I just don’t think you can pass up a chance on a franchise QB unless it is a blatant overpay |
|
|
|
Post by pedroelgrande on Mar 15, 2024 10:02:30 GMT -5
Last year, trading into the #3 pick cost: #12 #33 24 1st 24 3rd So if we're talking #11 and #23, the question is whether or not the 25 1st is in play. Probably couldn't also get the 3rd, given the difference between 23 and 33. That being said, I wonder if the target being a QB changes the math (last year the trade was for Will Anderson) Future first has to be involved for it to make sense for the Patriots I think. It has to be a bounty to pass up on MHJ and or the QB. |
|
|
|
Post by texs31 on Mar 15, 2024 10:04:25 GMT -5
I don't disagree but we're all working under the assumption (yes, based on some reports) that think these guys are that.
I don't like the idea of trading back JUST bc we need more talent (a QB can elevate "lesser" players if he's the right guy). But if they aren't sure . . .
|
|
|
|
Post by pedroelgrande on Mar 15, 2024 10:12:19 GMT -5
Even if they don’t think that players likely to be available aren’t all that they need to get maximum value, its not like they should be so desperate to move down to leave value on the table.
|
|
|
|
Post by umassgrad2005 on Mar 15, 2024 10:22:37 GMT -5
So much talk about QB sitting if we take one, but who are you taking? There's a massive difference between Maye and Daniels. There's a massive difference between Penix, Nix and McCarthy. If you're taking Daniels, Nix or Penix but don't want them playing year one at all you probably shouldn't be drafting them. One of the biggest pluses of that group is way more experience than your average QB that gets drafted. Even Rattler has more experience than your average QB drafted
|
|
cdj
Veteran
Posts: 15,867
|
Post by cdj on Mar 15, 2024 10:26:43 GMT -5
I don't disagree but we're all working under the assumption (yes, based on some reports) that think these guys are that. I don't like the idea of trading back JUST bc we need more talent (a QB can elevate "lesser" players if he's the right guy). But if they aren't sure . . . If somebody is trading up to 3 for a QB they certainly think it’s a franchise QB and that’s all that matters. They can pay a franchise QB price |
|
|
|
Post by umassgrad2005 on Mar 15, 2024 10:33:47 GMT -5
I think it was NBC sports a week ago reached out to teams to see where they had Maye Versus Daniels ranked, only two teams had Daniels ranked over Maye. One said to be within range for a trade up, the other wasn't. So if that report is correct, teams aren't grading these guys like the so called NFL draft experts.
Yeah it only takes one team. Just the yearly reminder the media pushes QBs up the ranking every year and QB fall come draft time, they never rise. Any rumor like Mac Jones to 49ers and Media hypes up player like that makes sense, he's worth that pick. We won't know how the teams feel to draft day.
|
|
ematz1423
Veteran
Posts: 6,905
Member is Online
|
Post by ematz1423 on Mar 15, 2024 10:46:44 GMT -5
Possibly, they did just draft a tackle last year at #10 who had a good season from what I read and they've signed a lineman or two in FA. I am very interested to see what they do with their 2nd 1st rounder. You could make the case beefing up that defense can help Williams just as much as an olineman might but both seem very much in play when prior to the Allen trade I figured they may go WR there. Admittedly I'm not very well knowledgeable with their organization, but the main thing is that it looks like they're taking every measure to make sure Caleb Williams is setup for success. Same, I don't know a whole lot about the Bears other than seeing they drafted a tackle high last year and appear to have a boat load of picks. I do believe you can make an argument that a bolstered defense can be every bit as helpful to a developing QB and team as adding another highly drafted tackle. They could use another pass rusher opposite Sweat. If your defense can't stop a nosebleed and Williams has to play from behind most games that wouldn't be helpful. I am sure they will be drafting some more Oline and WR help either way at the draft since I believe they have a boatload of picks. |
|
|
|
Post by redsoxfan2 on Mar 15, 2024 10:57:18 GMT -5
Admittedly I'm not very well knowledgeable with their organization, but the main thing is that it looks like they're taking every measure to make sure Caleb Williams is setup for success. Same, I don't know a whole lot about the Bears other than seeing they drafted a tackle high last year and appear to have a boat load of picks. I do believe you can make an argument that a bolstered defense can be every bit as helpful to a developing QB and team as adding another highly drafted tackle. They could use another pass rusher opposite Sweat. If your defense can't stop a nosebleed and Williams has to play from behind most games that wouldn't be helpful. I am sure they will be drafting some more Oline and WR help either way at the draft since I believe they have a boatload of picks. A good defense does mean less time on the field which does lead to better field positioning and more opportunities for the QB so there is certainly merit to that. |
|
|
|
Post by redsoxfan2 on Mar 15, 2024 11:05:27 GMT -5
I'll not entirely opposed to taking a QB in the middle of the 1st. Not a fan of it, but I'm not entirely against it. I think a reminder of where QBs were picked and the reality of the situation.
Jackson - 1st (32)
Allen - 1st (12)
Stafford - 1st (1)
Cousins - 4th
Prescott - 4th
Tua - 1st (5)
Goff - 1st (1)
Purdy - 7th
CJ Stroud - 1st (2)
Mahomes - 1st (10)
Love - 1st (26)
Flacco - 1st (18)
Hurts - 2nd
Mayfield - 1st (1)
Lawrence- 1st (1)
Burrow - 1st (1)
Herbert - 1st (6)
Geno - 2nd
Fields - 1st (11)
Wilson - 3rd
Carr - 2nd
Murray - 1st (1)
Minshew - 6th
Howell - 5th
Levis - 2nd
O'Connell- 4th
Pickett - 1st (20)
Ridder - 3rd
Daniel Jones - 1st (6)
Zappe - 4th
Mac Jones -1st (15)
Bryce Young - 1st (1)
Rodgers - 1st (24)
Zach Wilson - 1st (2)
Brissett- 3rd
Garapollo - 2nd
That means after the 1st round, in recent history, you're potentially looking at best case samples of:
2nd round - Geno Smith, Will Levis, Jimmy Garapollo or Jaylen Hurts.
Combining all the later rounds together (3-7) Cousins, Carr, Wilson, Ridder, Howell, Minshew, Purdy, Brissett, O'Connell, Prescott and Zappe.
I would be tempted to take off Cousins, Wilson and Carr due to their advanced age. Brissett is a place holder for the next guy. Minshew just took O'Connell's spot and Cousins just took Ridder's. Purdy really seems like an OK QB who just fell into the most absolutely perfect position. He should get better with time, but the 49ers made it possible for him.
So while middle 1st is irritating. Anything after that is a massive gamble based on history.
Edit: (Forgot Dak. Also added Jimmy G)
|
|
|
|
Post by dcb26 on Mar 15, 2024 11:08:15 GMT -5
So much talk about QB sitting if we take one, but who are you taking? There's a massive difference between Maye and Daniels. There's a massive difference between Penix, Nix and McCarthy. If you're taking Daniels, Nix or Penix but don't want them playing year one at all you probably shouldn't be drafting them. One of the biggest pluses of that group is way more experience than your average QB that gets drafted. Even Rattler has more experience than your average QB drafted My preference is Maye if he's there, or Penix if they go MHJ or trade back. I generally agree with your point, but no matter which (if any) QB the Pats draft I still want them on the bench for a while. Even if they have tons of experience, they still need to learn a new system/terminology/coaches/teammates/etc. I think there's a far greater chance to be hurt by being thrown into the fire than the opposite. Not saying "absolutely don't play at all in year one" but force them to really earn any game time they get. |
|
|
|
Post by dcb26 on Mar 15, 2024 11:18:11 GMT -5
I'll not entirely opposed to taking a QB on the middle of the 1st. Not a fan of it, but I'm not entirely against it. I think a reminder of where QBs were picked and the reality of the situation. So while middle 1st is irritating. Anything after that is a massive gamble based on history. If we're painting in broad strokes rather than analyzing individual players, wouldn't it stand to reason that what should be a historically great QB draft should have better QB talent after the first few picks as well? Especially if you do look at the specifics this year and see the QB strength isn't so much one uber-prospect (yes, Williams is a great QB prospect, but he alone isn't what is making the QB position look so special in this draft) but the number of QB's who could legitimately turn into franchise players. I will be really interested to see how high some of these QB's go - do 5 or 6 really go in the top half of the first round, or is being the proverbial "5th best QB in the draft" enough to drop someone simply on the basis of the players who went earlier. |
|
|
|
Post by redsoxfan2 on Mar 15, 2024 11:29:01 GMT -5
I'll not entirely opposed to taking a QB on the middle of the 1st. Not a fan of it, but I'm not entirely against it. I think a reminder of where QBs were picked and the reality of the situation. So while middle 1st is irritating. Anything after that is a massive gamble based on history. If we're painting in broad strokes rather than analyzing individual players, wouldn't it stand to reason that what should be a historically great QB draft should have better QB talent after the first few picks as well? Especially if you do look at the specifics this year and see the QB strength isn't so much one uber-prospect (yes, Williams is a great QB prospect, but he alone isn't what is making the QB position look so special in this draft) but the number of QB's who could legitimately turn into franchise players. I will be really interested to see how high some of these QB's go - do 5 or 6 really go in the top half of the first round, or is being the proverbial "5th best QB in the draft" enough to drop someone simply on the basis of the players who went earlier. Yes, that's entirely fair, but I think that strength just plays into middle of the 1st more than anything and loses that tag once you escape the 1st round. Like if there's 5 guys that make it a deep class and they're all likely gone by round 2 how deep is it still? I'm guessing Bo Nix could fall into round 2, but beyond that I'm seeing mock drafts where JJ McCarthy is now being picked 6th by the Giants. But I could also counter argue that if it's a deep class and you are taking who you think is the best of said deep class your odds of hitting should improve exponentially. So, yes, it's a broad stroke for sure, but this is a compilation of picks over many years as well. The samples suggest anything beyond the 1st round is basically just luck. That's why I won't be "I want to throw a chair" angry if they trade down, just a bit annoyed. If they try to find that QB in round 2 or later then I'm going to be pulling my hair. Next year is also supposedly an awful QB draft class. So if you're not taking a swing now, you're taking one 2 drafts from now. |
|
|
|
Post by benogliviesbrother on Mar 15, 2024 11:41:37 GMT -5
I think it was NBC sports a week ago reached out to teams to see where they had Maye Versus Daniels ranked, only two teams had Daniels ranked over Maye. One said to be within range for a trade up, the other wasn't. So if that report is correct, teams aren't grading these guys like the so called NFL draft experts. Yeah it only takes one team. Just the yearly reminder the media pushes QBs up the ranking every year and QB fall come draft time, they never rise. Any rumor like Mac Jones to 49ers and Media hypes up player like that makes sense, he's worth that pick. We won't know how the teams feel to draft day.Your latter claim is in conflict with your earlier one. Charlie Weiss gave his rankings (and some "why") this morning on SiriusXM: 2) Daniels -- likes a lot, cross between Donovan McNabb & Lamar Jackson; 3) Bo Nix -- cross between Drew Brees & Baker Mayfield; Charlie has watched his tape & interviewed him ("reminds me of Tommy"). Bob Papa reminded the audience that Charlie was on Dak coming out & ranked him much higher than consensus. |
|
mobaz
Veteran
Posts: 3,044
|
Post by mobaz on Mar 15, 2024 11:48:15 GMT -5
So much talk about QB sitting if we take one, but who are you taking? There's a massive difference between Maye and Daniels. There's a massive difference between Penix, Nix and McCarthy. If you're taking Daniels, Nix or Penix but don't want them playing year one at all you probably shouldn't be drafting them. One of the biggest pluses of that group is way more experience than your average QB that gets drafted. Even Rattler has more experience than your average QB drafted My preference is Maye if he's there, or Penix if they go MHJ or trade back. I generally agree with your point, but no matter which (if any) QB the Pats draft I still want them on the bench for a while. Even if they have tons of experience, they still need to learn a new system/terminology/coaches/teammates/etc. I think there's a far greater chance to be hurt by being thrown into the fire than the opposite. Not saying "absolutely don't play at all in year one" but force them to really earn any game time they get. I know I've seen some stats about average starting week for Top 10 or First Round QB picks, and it was something like 90% start by Week 7. This is NOT the stat, but my memory of it. Starting on the bench is a decent theory, but most teams don't have a good alternative, get antsy, QB Placeholder gets injured, or else the dafted QB DOES earn its time. Brissett is definitely enough QB to make sure our guy earns it (unlike Hoyer for Mac), but don't think this is gonna be a year-long Mahomes thing. That barely ever happens. Not related but interesting stats on success rates for QBs taken ANYWHERE ELSE BUT #1. |
|
|
|
Post by benogliviesbrother on Mar 15, 2024 11:51:41 GMT -5
As to potential trade down scenarios, I find the Rich Hill chart useful: www.drafttek.com/NFL-Trade-Value-Chart-Rich-Hill.asp#11 & #24 & "sweetener" for #3 would be good draft capital business. How good it would be for team building would depend on how the capital got cashed out & whether one can ever overpay for a true franchise QB. Btw, four different trade value appraisals all favored Houston over Minnesota in the recent trade. I suspect Minnesota won't terribly mind if they get their guy: |
|
|
|
Post by benogliviesbrother on Mar 15, 2024 11:56:55 GMT -5
My preference is Maye if he's there, or Penix if they go MHJ or trade back. I generally agree with your point, but no matter which (if any) QB the Pats draft I still want them on the bench for a while. Even if they have tons of experience, they still need to learn a new system/terminology/coaches/teammates/etc. I think there's a far greater chance to be hurt by being thrown into the fire than the opposite. Not saying "absolutely don't play at all in year one" but force them to really earn any game time they get. I know I've seen some stats about average starting week for Top 10 or First Round QB picks, and it was something like 90% start by Week 7. This is NOT the stat, but my memory of it. Starting on the bench is a decent theory, but most teams don't have a good alternative, get antsy, QB Placeholder gets injured, or else the dafted QB DOES earn its time. Brissett is definitely enough QB to make sure our guy earns it (unlike Hoyer for Mac), but don't think this is gonna be a year-long Mahomes thing. That barely ever happens. Not related but interesting stats on success rates for QBs taken ANYWHERE ELSE BUT #1.If I'm reading this correctly shouldn't that be "anywhere else in the 1st round but #1 overall"? A lot of great QBs went after round 1 including a guy we used to have. |
|
|
|
Post by umassgrad2005 on Mar 15, 2024 13:48:44 GMT -5
I think it was NBC sports a week ago reached out to teams to see where they had Maye Versus Daniels ranked, only two teams had Daniels ranked over Maye. One said to be within range for a trade up, the other wasn't. So if that report is correct, teams aren't grading these guys like the so called NFL draft experts. Yeah it only takes one team. Just the yearly reminder the media pushes QBs up the ranking every year and QB fall come draft time, they never rise. Any rumor like Mac Jones to 49ers and Media hypes up player like that makes sense, he's worth that pick. We won't know how the teams feel to draft day.Your latter claim is in conflict with your earlier one. Charlie Weiss gave his rankings (and some "why") this morning on SiriusXM: 2) Daniels -- likes a lot, cross between Donovan McNabb & Lamar Jackson; 3) Bo Nix -- cross between Drew Brees & Baker Mayfield; Charlie has watched his tape & interviewed him ("reminds me of Tommy"). Bob Papa reminded the audience that Charlie was on Dak coming out & ranked him much higher than consensus. One is a snapshot in time about two players and doesn't include draft position. The is about the whole QB field and where they get drafted. To make it clear, which my post sometimes aren't. I just hate Daniels tape from Florida State game and Bama game. Just not a huge fan of Jayden Daniels throwing the football. Go watch all passes and runs during those games, do you like what you see? I love Bo Nix, I'm not big on that comparison. |
|
|
|
Post by umassgrad2005 on Mar 15, 2024 14:00:23 GMT -5
So much talk about QB sitting if we take one, but who are you taking? There's a massive difference between Maye and Daniels. There's a massive difference between Penix, Nix and McCarthy. If you're taking Daniels, Nix or Penix but don't want them playing year one at all you probably shouldn't be drafting them. One of the biggest pluses of that group is way more experience than your average QB that gets drafted. Even Rattler has more experience than your average QB drafted My preference is Maye if he's there, or Penix if they go MHJ or trade back. I generally agree with your point, but no matter which (if any) QB the Pats draft I still want them on the bench for a while. Even if they have tons of experience, they still need to learn a new system/terminology/coaches/teammates/etc. I think there's a far greater chance to be hurt by being thrown into the fire than the opposite. Not saying "absolutely don't play at all in year one" but force them to really earn any game time they get. Absolutely, this is the NFL players have to earn their spots unless teams are stupid. Just different levels. For example I don't care how good Maye or McCarthy are, they aren't starting week one, both would benefit greatly from a redshirt year. There young and only two years starting experience. Much different with Daniels, Nix and Penix, sure they have to earn it. I'm just not putting any restrictions on them, they are older with a crazy amount of experience. The minute they look good, I play them. Absolutely could be game one, though I do agree that sitting them some time is good. I would also find it crazy if those 3 didn't play a good amount year one. Like I said before, if you feel that way you probably shouldn't draft them. |
|
|
|
Post by Don Caballero on Mar 15, 2024 16:06:03 GMT -5
I'd start Drake Maye day one, let him work out his wonky deliver in game. I cannot stress enough how much I love him as a prospect. I just see Justin Herbert there.
|
|
|
|
Post by rasimon on Mar 15, 2024 16:27:26 GMT -5
The reunion is off. Jimmy G to the Rams.
|
|
cdj
Veteran
Posts: 15,867
|
Post by cdj on Mar 15, 2024 19:54:19 GMT -5
Tyron Smith to the Jets
|
|
|
|
Post by rjp313jr on Mar 16, 2024 7:29:51 GMT -5
A couple notes so I don’t have to go back and respond to multiple posts:
1. If they take a QB at 3, I want them to sit him because he’s not going to be set up for success right away. Situation is as important as the right player. If they feel one of these guys is the right player then, please take him, but don’t thrust him into a terrible situation. Bad line, lack of weapons plus a rudimentary understanding of the playbook and getting used to NFL game speed is a disaster waiting to happen. I have no doubt a lot of these high pick QBs who we call busts were just put into terrible spot and ruined.
2. Trade down with the Vikings should be both 11 and 24 plus next years first. Yes, that’s a massive over pay for the trade chart but that’s a premium pick, if the Vikings are trading up for their QB. I’d also roll the dice that that team is going to struggle next year with a rookie QB and that’s going to be a top 10 pick next year.
I’d happy with that deal.
|
|
|
|
Post by texs31 on Mar 16, 2024 7:30:22 GMT -5
Jeremiah saying Maye is still in play for Washington. Also that it's more likely that #2 is the more likely target for Minny.
He's still saying that Pats will go QB at 3.
|
|
|
