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Patriots 2024 Offseason Thread
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Apr 24, 2024 10:30:10 GMT -5
Tipman at 137? Can you say Dalton Keene? His production over 3 years equal total what he should have in one year to get picked that high. Yes he's a great athlete, better than Keene given his size, but has almost no catching production. His teammate Isaiah Williams slot WR is the guy you want from that program, kinda reminds me of Edelman.
I've done enough mocks to know the value of the talent available at 137, it's very good. Falls off a cliff by pick 180. Still you'd have a hard time saying Tipman is great value at pick 180. That's just such a Bill pick, guys excited to play special teams. I just don't see how Tipman at 137 is a dream scenario. Heck a lot of those picks are picking guys early, not getting great value picking them latter. I can get on board with a bunch of them because I love the combination of Baker and Means to rebuild the X position.
General rule of thumb, you don't overdraft a guy at a position in this draft that's rated the worst in the whole draft. Sorry still having flashbacks of trading up for Keene.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Apr 24, 2024 10:43:39 GMT -5
If you want to look at need, looking at this year and next, RB, DE, DT and LB are all sneaky type needs.
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Post by texs31 on Apr 24, 2024 11:17:26 GMT -5
Tipman at 137? Can you say Dalton Keene? His production over 3 years equal total what he should have in one year to get picked that high. Yes he's a great athlete, better than Keene given his size, but has almost no catching production. His teammate Isaiah Williams slot WR is the guy you want from that program, kinda reminds me of Edelman. I've done enough mocks to know the value of the talent available at 137, it's very good. Falls off a cliff by pick 180. Still you'd have a hard time saying Tipman is great value at pick 180. That's just such a Bill pick, guys excited to play special teams. I just don't see how Tipman at 137 is a dream scenario. Heck a lot of those picks are picking guys early, not getting great value picking them latter. I can get on board with a bunch of them because I love the combination of Baker and Means to rebuild the X position. General rule of thumb, you don't overdraft a guy at a position in this draft that's rated the worst in the whole draft. Sorry still having flashbacks of trading up for Keene. Yeah but not having to trade up to get him = Win?  (that's a joke). All seriousness, as you know, I'm not a talent evaluator (nor do I play one on TV) so I'm happy to rely on the "experts" out there. Of the ESPN guys, Kiper (not in Top 150) and Reid (172) would seemingly agree with you. Otherwise: Miller - 138 Muench - 125 Yates - 108 Add in: Jeremiah - 125 Brugler - 142. I don't know. That smells right to me. Will you be right? Will they? I don't know. But for this exercise, I'm good with it. |
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Apr 24, 2024 13:47:53 GMT -5
Athlon 192
CBS 209
PFF 202
Sporting news not in top 200
You can't make a case he should be higher than those grades unless you wanna act like the AL Davis Raiders and it's all just about drafting athletes, not actual football players. I stay away from all crazy high risers after combine if they don't have the production and skill to match it. He's one of the most extreme in the draft.
Dream scenario you get Cade Stover type guy at that pick.
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Post by texs31 on Apr 24, 2024 14:08:15 GMT -5
When were those lists updated?
Understand the late rise concern but if there wasn't legit reason for guys to climb, than evaluations of players would've stopped a long time ago.
Has to be some middle ground between a late rise and sticking with an evaluation based on observations from months ago.
Again, you watch these guys more than I do so are MUCH better equipped to do your own evals (even if I watched them, I wouldn't know what I was seeing 1/2 the time). But people I trust do and they have the guy in that range so it's a reasonable scenario for me. Not for you? That's fine.
EDIT - And sure, there are probably a number of guys you could put in at that pick and I would also post that "I don't hate it" (as I did with this mock).
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Post by pedroelgrande on Apr 24, 2024 15:17:06 GMT -5
The late round TE I want for the Pats is Tanner McLachlan from Arizona.
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Apr 24, 2024 16:01:18 GMT -5
Odds of Maye dropping and JJ climbing, I don’t like that!
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Post by pedroelgrande on Apr 24, 2024 16:07:38 GMT -5
If they really take McCarthy because of the Brady-Michigan connection they aren’t a serious franchise.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Apr 24, 2024 16:18:09 GMT -5
CBS is final rankings, doesn't have date, PFF doesn't have date, but it's the current ranking, Athlon 2 days ago, Sporting current ranking done April 4th, must be waiting till draft day for final update or they aren't doing one.
Athlon draft magazine before combine has him undrafted. Lindys draft magazine before combine has him undrafted, blocking specialist/maybe OL convert. So he certainly moved up in Athlons ranking, which I have no problem with. It's the undrafted maybe 7th round pick to top 100 guy crap that is crazy.
To each there own, for me it's crazy and guys doing it because it's a crazy weak TE class.
I still remember the debates about Keene being the next George Kittle because he tested well.
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Post by rasimon on Apr 24, 2024 16:58:40 GMT -5
A lot of people have mocked Suamataia to the Pats at 34. Thats either a sign that they are desperate for an OT with their 2nd pick or the mock drafter hasnt actually watched him play yet. He definitely has potential but he is not a day 1 starter. He needs a lot of work, particularly on run blocking.
Here is a nice writeup.
Wirh respect to OTs, after the big 5 (Alt, Mims, Fuaga, Latham, and Fashanu) you are looking at developmental guys, guys who are maybe OTs and maybe IOLs, and low ceiling guys.
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Apr 24, 2024 17:22:29 GMT -5
Odds of Maye dropping and JJ climbing, I don’t like that! Maye has gone from -330 to -130 at pick 3 JJ up to +120 for pick 3 Uh oh |
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Post by rasimon on Apr 24, 2024 18:04:44 GMT -5
I would be ok with any of the following scenarios:
Maye or Williams (not happening) at 3
Trade down to 5 or 6, get whatever draft capital you can get ...maybe a 3rd this year or a 2nd next year, and draft Alt
Trade down to 11-13 for a big haul. What's a big haul?
......From MIN: 11, 23, 2025 1st
......From DEN: 12, 76, 2025 1st and 2nd, 2026 1st and 2nd
......From LVR: 13, 44, 77, 2025 1st.
......in any of these three big-haul trade-downs, use that first round pick(s) on WRs or OTs or Bowers.
I wouldn't hate MHJ at 3 either, but would prefer one of the above
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Post by texs31 on Apr 25, 2024 5:46:09 GMT -5
Happy Draft Day!!
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Apr 25, 2024 6:33:43 GMT -5
I'm excited for the Patriots to draft Dallas Turner tonight with their 3rd pick.
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Post by costpet on Apr 25, 2024 6:52:08 GMT -5
If they don't get this draft right, the next 3 years will be miserable.
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badfishnbc
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Doing you all a favor and leaving through the gate in right field since 2012.
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Post by badfishnbc on Apr 25, 2024 7:44:02 GMT -5
If they really take McCarthy because of the Brady-Michigan connection they aren’t a serious franchise. |
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Post by texs31 on Apr 25, 2024 8:31:55 GMT -5
Reiss indicating that NE is looking into the price of moving up from 34. Also saying they are in continued negotiations with Barmore on an extension.
If NE walks away from this weekend with Maye, a 1st round caliber WR/OT (either by moving up or by one dropping to them) another starting candidate at whichever they didn't take with their 2nd pick AND an extended Christian Barmore? Holy cow!
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Post by philarhody on Apr 25, 2024 8:33:53 GMT -5
If they really take McCarthy because of the Brady-Michigan connection they aren’t a serious franchise. Yes |
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Post by philarhody on Apr 25, 2024 8:43:35 GMT -5
Tipman at 137? Can you say Dalton Keene? His production over 3 years equal total what he should have in one year to get picked that high. Yes he's a great athlete, better than Keene given his size, but has almost no catching production. His teammate Isaiah Williams slot WR is the guy you want from that program, kinda reminds me of Edelman. I've done enough mocks to know the value of the talent available at 137, it's very good. Falls off a cliff by pick 180. Still you'd have a hard time saying Tipman is great value at pick 180. That's just such a Bill pick, guys excited to play special teams. I just don't see how Tipman at 137 is a dream scenario. Heck a lot of those picks are picking guys early, not getting great value picking them latter. I can get on board with a bunch of them because I love the combination of Baker and Means to rebuild the X position. General rule of thumb, you don't overdraft a guy at a position in this draft that's rated the worst in the whole draft. Sorry still having flashbacks of trading up for Keene. Recent history shows that elite athleticism at tight end matters far more than production when translating NFL success. It’s basically a dart throw. |
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Post by Don Caballero on Apr 25, 2024 8:59:39 GMT -5
Drake Maye day!
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Apr 25, 2024 9:59:29 GMT -5
Tipman at 137? Can you say Dalton Keene? His production over 3 years equal total what he should have in one year to get picked that high. Yes he's a great athlete, better than Keene given his size, but has almost no catching production. His teammate Isaiah Williams slot WR is the guy you want from that program, kinda reminds me of Edelman. I've done enough mocks to know the value of the talent available at 137, it's very good. Falls off a cliff by pick 180. Still you'd have a hard time saying Tipman is great value at pick 180. That's just such a Bill pick, guys excited to play special teams. I just don't see how Tipman at 137 is a dream scenario. Heck a lot of those picks are picking guys early, not getting great value picking them latter. I can get on board with a bunch of them because I love the combination of Baker and Means to rebuild the X position. General rule of thumb, you don't overdraft a guy at a position in this draft that's rated the worst in the whole draft. Sorry still having flashbacks of trading up for Keene. Recent history shows that elite athleticism at tight end matters far more than production when translating NFL success. It’s basically a dart throw. You have examples to back that up? Closet recent guy to Tip Reiman RAS score and production wise is Chase Harrell, who hasn't played a single snap in the NFL since 2020 after going undrafted. |
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Post by philarhody on Apr 25, 2024 10:37:39 GMT -5
Recent history shows that elite athleticism at tight end matters far more than production when translating NFL success. It’s basically a dart throw. You have examples to back that up? Closet recent guy to Tip Reiman RAS score and production wise is Chase Harrell, who hasn't played a single snap in the NFL since 2020 after going undrafted. My examples are every good tight end in the league. You’d be less likely to come up with a single example of a poor athletic tester at tight end becoming an above average starter in today’s NFL. So Reiman is worth a dart throw. Edit: your best example is probably Mark Andrews, who ran a 4.67 at 6’5 256. |
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mobaz
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Post by mobaz on Apr 25, 2024 10:51:32 GMT -5
Recent history shows that elite athleticism at tight end matters far more than production when translating NFL success. It’s basically a dart throw. You have examples to back that up? Closet recent guy to Tip Reiman RAS score and production wise is Chase Harrell, who hasn't played a single snap in the NFL since 2020 after going undrafted. This is about Elite TEs, but saw this a few weeks ago. |
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Apr 25, 2024 11:02:27 GMT -5
You have examples to back that up? Closet recent guy to Tip Reiman RAS score and production wise is Chase Harrell, who hasn't played a single snap in the NFL since 2020 after going undrafted. My examples are every good tight end in the league. You’d be less likely to come up with a single example of a poor athletic tester at tight end becoming an above average starter in today’s NFL. So Reiman is worth a dart throw. Edit: your best example is probably Mark Andrews, who ran a 4.67 at 6’5 256. So you have not one example to back up your claims? I just checked a bunch of the top TEs, they all had very good to great production in College. Hunter Henry 4.79 40 is a top ten TE in the NFL production wise if he has a good QB throwing to him. Edit. Zach Ertz 4.76 and Ben Coates 4.95 lol |
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Post by rasimon on Apr 25, 2024 11:35:08 GMT -5
Gronk 4.68
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(that's a joke).
