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Post by rasimon on Aug 4, 2024 19:59:15 GMT -5
what happens to teams after they stink?
I looked at teams who won 5 or less games in a year during the years 2013-2022. There were 73 such teams. In the following year the average number of wins for these teams was 6.6. Compare that to the average number of wins for all teams which in this sample was 8.1 (switched from 16 to 17 games in 2021 plus a few ties).
Of teams who won 5 or less games, in the following year:
1 team won 0 1 team won 1 2 teams won 2 7 teams won 3 7 teams won 4 10 teams won 5 7 teams won 6 14 teams won 7 3 teams won 8 9 teams won 9 7 teams on 10 2 teams won 11 Hou went from 4 to 11 2017 -> 2018. Rams went from 4 to 11 2016 -> 2017 1 team won 12 Chi went from 5 to 12 2017 -> 2018 2 teams won 13 Sfo went from 4 to 13 2018 -> 2019. Dal went from 4 to 13 2015 -> 2016
28 of the 73 teams who won 5 or less games, won 5 or less again in the following year. 45 of the 73 teams who won 5 or less games, won more than 5 games in the following year.
I chose 5 games as it is slightly under 1/3.
The number of games played changed in 2021 so maybe I should have done the analysis in terms of winning percentage and then converted it to today's 17 games schedule. But that would make it harder to follow. I doubt it changes the results significantly.
I'm actually a bit surprised that there is that much reversion to the mean.
I was inspired to do this by looking at the Pats schedule and noting that it is going to be difficult to win more than 4 games this year. Arizona, Chargers, Tennessee should be competitive. After that the next easiest games are probably Chicago and the Jets. It is not an easy schedule.
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Post by rjp313jr on Aug 5, 2024 9:19:27 GMT -5
what happens to teams after they stink? I looked at teams who won 5 or less games in a year during the years 2013-2022. There were 73 such teams. In the following year the average number of wins for these teams was 6.6. Compare that to the average number of wins for all teams which in this sample was 8.1 (switched from 16 to 17 games in 2021 plus a few ties). Of teams who won 5 or less games, in the following year: 1 team won 0 1 team won 1 2 teams won 2 7 teams won 3 7 teams won 4 10 teams won 5 7 teams won 6 14 teams won 7 3 teams won 8 9 teams won 9 7 teams on 10 2 teams won 11 Hou went from 4 to 11 2017 -> 2018. Rams went from 4 to 11 2016 -> 2017 1 team won 12 Chi went from 5 to 12 2017 -> 2018 2 teams won 13 Sfo went from 4 to 13 2018 -> 2019. Dal went from 4 to 13 2015 -> 2016 28 of the 73 teams who won 5 or less games, won 5 or less again in the following year. 45 of the 73 teams who won 5 or less games, won more than 5 games in the following year. I chose 5 games as it is slightly under 1/3. The number of games played changed in 2021 so maybe I should have done the analysis in terms of winning percentage and then converted it to today's 17 games schedule. But that would make it harder to follow. I doubt it changes the results significantly. I'm actually a bit surprised that there is that much reversion to the mean. I was inspired to do this by looking at the Pats schedule and noting that it is going to be difficult to win more than 4 games this year. Arizona, Chargers, Tennessee should be competitive. After that the next easiest games are probably Chicago and the Jets. It is not an easy schedule. Easiest games on the schedule are probably home games against Seattle (wk2 and they have a new coach) and the Chargers (wk 17). Fortunately we get Arizona away late in the year so the changes Murray is healthy are low. Then Tennessee we play away and Chicago is away. Indy is a complete wildcard. Could be strong or could blow with Richardson. It’s the NFL there are always upsets though. Nothing between 3 and 8 wins would surprise me.
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Post by rasimon on Aug 5, 2024 15:33:15 GMT -5
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Post by texs31 on Aug 5, 2024 21:44:05 GMT -5
Multiple beat guys retweeting a report that SF has the framework of a trade with both Cleveland and NE.
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Post by pedroelgrande on Aug 5, 2024 21:56:12 GMT -5
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Post by rjp313jr on Aug 6, 2024 8:58:37 GMT -5
Some key parts from his report:
The 49ers gave permission to Aiyuk to negotiate potential contracts with the Browns, Patriots, Washington Commanders and Pittsburgh Steelers, the source said.
There you go UMASS. This is how these things work. Teams give permission, sometimes it’s more limited than others and agents go out to try and work contracts.
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Post by texs31 on Aug 6, 2024 9:14:30 GMT -5
As some are opining, this could very well be a message to Pittsburgh (reportedly Aiyuk's preferred destination) to up their trade offer.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Aug 6, 2024 10:20:12 GMT -5
Browns are offering Cooper and picks, Patriots Bourne and Picks. Only way Steelers can match is Pickens or Roman Wilson plus picks given they lack legit NFL WRs, which the 49ers want.
If Aiyuk doesn't want to come here with Maye waiting in wings, then I don't want him! Especially when this isn't going to be cheap, trade wise or contract wise
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Aug 6, 2024 11:10:51 GMT -5
Listening to the radio, sounds like Drake Maye is having a good day at practice. Anecdotal, but like hearing the positivity on the kid who is going to determine how the next decade will go for the Patriots.
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Post by rasimon on Aug 6, 2024 12:12:16 GMT -5
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Post by texs31 on Aug 6, 2024 14:23:43 GMT -5
PIT and SF re-engaged in discussions per Schefter
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mobaz
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Post by mobaz on Aug 6, 2024 15:07:40 GMT -5
PIT and SF re-engaged in discussions per Schefter No surprise we're being used as a red herring to get things moving. Sucks though.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Aug 6, 2024 15:11:26 GMT -5
I just have to say about Maye it hasn't been a camp competition because he's always getting 2nd string offense, especially OL. Our top OL has issues and with injuries the 2nd unit isn't close to good. They haven't been rotating like you'd normally see in a legit competition. Mayo when asked said they would get Maye a run on first team at some point this camp.
I have zero issues with this, just adding context that some negative reports aren't mentioning about him. Heck one reporting, who I think might be Don was talking about Milton starting lol.
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mobaz
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Post by mobaz on Aug 6, 2024 19:28:16 GMT -5
I just have to say about Maye it hasn't been a camp competition because he's always getting 2nd string offense, especially OL. Our top OL has issues and with injuries the 2nd unit isn't close to good. They haven't been rotating like you'd normally see in a legit competition. Mayo when asked said they would get Maye a run on first team at some point this camp. I have zero issues with this, just adding context that some negative reports aren't mentioning about him. Heck one reporting, who I think might be Don was talking about Milton starting lol. I'm definitely not worried after like 4 days in pads. There is plenty to build off of. Meanwhile Jaylen Daniels is named starter the first week of camp. We'll see how that goes for the one season wonder.
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Post by Don Caballero on Aug 6, 2024 19:58:13 GMT -5
I just have to say about Maye it hasn't been a camp competition because he's always getting 2nd string offense, especially OL. Our top OL has issues and with injuries the 2nd unit isn't close to good. They haven't been rotating like you'd normally see in a legit competition. Mayo when asked said they would get Maye a run on first team at some point this camp. I have zero issues with this, just adding context that some negative reports aren't mentioning about him. Heck one reporting, who I think might be Don was talking about Milton starting lol. I'm definitely not worried after like 4 days in pads. There is plenty to build off of. Meanwhile Jaylen Daniels is named starter the first week of camp. We'll see how that goes for the one season wonder. To be fair here, Daniels is nearly 2 years older than Maye, it would not be shocking if he starts off faster than Maye. It would be shocking if he ends up as a better player than Maye.
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Post by pedroelgrande on Aug 6, 2024 21:23:33 GMT -5
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Aug 7, 2024 0:03:35 GMT -5
Terrible and of course they're going to say that after dropping out.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Aug 7, 2024 9:13:54 GMT -5
It's why I think doing well this year is important, showing the league and players you are a team on the rise. If a player doesn't want to be here, you move onto the next guy that becomes available. Per reports he wants to be a Steeler.
You have to be excited about the young WRs. Baker and Polk are this years Douglas, while Boutte makes plays every practice and even Thornton is starting to make an impact. Heck a lot of people think Reagor has had a great camp.
I would call 49ers and offer up Bourne, for draft pick, player of need, whatever. I want those young guys playing so we know what we have.
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Post by rjp313jr on Aug 7, 2024 10:22:17 GMT -5
It's why I think doing well this year is important, showing the league and players you are a team on the rise. If a player doesn't want to be here, you move onto the next guy that becomes available. Per reports he wants to be a Steeler. You have to be excited about the young WRs. Baker and Polk are this years Douglas, while Boutte makes plays every practice and even Thornton is starting to make an impact. Heck a lot of people think Reagor has had a great camp. I would call 49ers and offer up Bourne, for draft pick, player of need, whatever. I want those young guys playing so we know what we have. Can you do 3 team trades in the NFL? Get a pick from the Steelers so they can flop Bourne?
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mobaz
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Post by mobaz on Aug 7, 2024 10:41:45 GMT -5
Some interesting reporting on the Eagles coaching & QB sitch have come out this week; relevance to the Patriots are: 1. There was real thought on bringing in Belichick because the disconnect was really that bad (and I still believe the Patricia stink worked against Bill) 2. Brett's note about a non-play-caller CEO style coach is relevant for Mayo in his first year.
I'd say it remains to be seen if "keep everybody but the HC and OC" is the right way to turn around the franchise, but it's an uphill battle before day 1.
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Post by GyIantosca on Aug 7, 2024 11:15:42 GMT -5
He was using the Pats to leverage I guess the Steelers. Let the Steelers pay him 30 million a year. Dude don’t want to come here then that’s that. It looked like the Pats were ready to grab him . He doesn’t want the Browns either. I think.
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Aug 7, 2024 11:22:08 GMT -5
I personally think he just doesn’t want to live in Foxboro MA while playing for a rebuilding team
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Post by texs31 on Aug 7, 2024 11:33:05 GMT -5
I feel like it was SF leveraging the Patriots not BA. No indication (reported anyway) that Pittsburgh won't pay him what he wants. Only the suggestion that PIT won't give SF what THEY want.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Aug 7, 2024 12:52:05 GMT -5
I personally think he just doesn’t want to live in Foxboro MA while playing for a rebuilding team I honestly would rather be in New England's position than the Steelers. Year 1 will probably suck, but he's 26 and Pittsburgh is absolutely not winning a ring this year.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Aug 7, 2024 13:00:20 GMT -5
I feel like it was SF leveraging the Patriots not BA. No indication (reported anyway) that Pittsburgh won't pay him what he wants. Only the suggestion that PIT won't give SF what THEY want. If I'm the 49ers I'm only taking what makes sense to my franchise. If the Steelers aren't offering enough I tell the player to either play out the year or get fined. They should pay him, but if not then take a deal that makes sense for the value.
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