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Lucas Giolito has a partially torn UCL
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Mar 5, 2024 11:42:08 GMT -5
Now it's two of Houck/Winckowski/Whitlock
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Post by bloomstaxonomy on Mar 5, 2024 11:44:25 GMT -5
The $19 AAV in 2024 is what hurts the most. I guess we'll just be bumbling around 80 wins forever. Cool cool cool. You love to see it.
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Post by asm18 on Mar 5, 2024 11:45:15 GMT -5
Well that stinks. Can't until May when the rotation is 1/2 Criswell/Walter. Highlights how absurd it was that they didn't sign a Paxton-tier pitcher as well. Getting mentally prepared for the team to be either out of it early (or be in at the trade deadline again and just not do anything), Cora to leave to the Dodgers, and the Yankees to win the World Series and Alex Verdugo is the WS MVP.
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Post by wOBA Fett on Mar 5, 2024 11:46:08 GMT -5
Also have to love a roster where one injury to a #3 starting pitcher has the potential to doom an entire season.
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Post by bettsonmookie on Mar 5, 2024 11:51:29 GMT -5
Desperate attempt at a glass-half-full take: This year was unlikely to be great anyway, but if Giolito pitched well he would have been gone at the end of the season. Now maybe he gets healthy this year, comes back next year, and contributes to an overall more competitive team next year? Sorry, that's the best I've got - I was already starting to feel like the Sox were being followed by a raincloud after Grissom got hurt This sucks. No other way around it. But here is my attempt at a silver lining: Cons: -24 rotation currently much worse off, in need of depth -Giolito clearly opts in for 25 -No opportunity to ‘sell high’ on Giolito @ 24 deadline Pros: -Clears the way for Whitlock/Houck to have every opportunity to prove themselves as starting pitchers -Market still has range of SP depth available for being this far into the off-season (Snell/Monty/Clevinger/Lorenzen/etc.) The 2024 season was going to be what it was going to be. It’s about internal development, transitioning in the next wave of prospects, and hopefully having a chance to sell high on certain guys. If they plug Lorenzen/Clevinger into Giolito’s spot are they worse off in 2024? Yes. But it’s marginal and doesn’t change their fate. Last place team before, last place team after. If Houck and/or Whitlock are in fact due to improve, let alone breakout, this injury reduces the possibility of one of them being buried in the bullpen. What we are going for is controllable starting pitching. They both have the upside to demonstrate themselves capable of filling that need. Now, they will both seemingly get their chance.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Mar 5, 2024 11:56:34 GMT -5
I had them as a high 60s to mid 70s win team before this injury. I know some were a little more bullish, but some of the "if everything breaks right" crowd had the Sox hitting the 90s. The Red Sox aren't going to be 10 games worse without Giolito and if they sign Montgomery, in theory, they should be a better team had they just signed Montgomery instead of Giolito. Again, I wasn't sold and I think this hurts their odds at acquiring him, but if you had any faith in this team before I don't see how all hope is suddenly lost. He was a low risk, high reward guy to begin with and could have very easily been a 4.80 ERA pitcher. They might have a bottom 5 rotation. I'm bullish on Bello but this is a lot of pressure on him to be the ace. Yeah, that's why I was so down on them. If you were relying on Giolito THAT much, you might be in trouble. Plus, injuries happen and to assume none of the current starting 5 would go down for a prolonged period of time was wishful.
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Post by sopaulking on Mar 5, 2024 11:58:03 GMT -5
I’m all for developing our prospects . I know we are probably mid 2025 before we have Mayer Teel and Anthony possibly in the lineup .
Hopefully with Rafeala , Casas and Devers .
But if the Sox want to hold the purse strings this tight and not act on a starter that can help for multiple years like a Snell and Montgomery .
I still would like them to sign Bauer to make the Sox semi competitive . Ideally snell and Bauer . But I can’t imagine spending money on a ticket with this type of rotation if we really do lose Giolito for the year .
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Post by bloomstaxonomy on Mar 5, 2024 11:58:37 GMT -5
Former front office man Zach Scott raised an interesting point on twitter. He mentioned that sometimes optimizing "stuff" and playing with mechanics can lead to stuff like this. Who knows if that is actually the case, but it doesn't make me feel any better. I'd hope that Bailey, Willard, et al. are careful about this kind of thing.
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Post by soxfansince67 on Mar 5, 2024 12:09:46 GMT -5
Good grief. Mookie's curse continues.
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Post by bellhorndingers21 on Mar 5, 2024 12:14:41 GMT -5
Former front office man Zach Scott raised an interesting point on twitter. He mentioned that sometimes optimizing "stuff" and playing with mechanics can lead to stuff like this. Who knows if that is actually the case, but it doesn't make me feel any better. I'd hope that Bailey, Willard, et al. are careful about this kind of thing. I had the chance to attend a lecture by Dr. Andrews and former Red Sox PT Mike Reinold last month and they basically reinforced that the UCL is placed at maximal tension on just about every pitch and velocity is the highest correlation to injury. I'd be curious if more injuries pop up during the season before we start assigning a trend but more or less the volatility of pitching is why they invested so much into affordable pitching development.
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Post by Darwin's Curve on Mar 5, 2024 12:15:20 GMT -5
While I was optimistic Giolito would eat innings and do relatively decent, I never figured he'd be a # 1 or 2 type of starter. Is this injury good for the outlook of the season? Nope. That being said it doesn't really change my opinion on their chances that much. If this team is going to be good it likely wasn't going to be because Giolito was their best starter. If this team is going to be good it is because Bello takes a step forward, Pivetta proves his 2nd half wasn't a fluke and one of Houck/Whitlock prove to be legit starters. None of this has changed at this point to me. I'm not ready to pull the plug on this team right now. Like I said not good news but I also don't find losing Giolito as some death knell for the year. I'd agree. While it's not a good development, Bello/Crawford/Pivetta/Houck/Whitlock/Winckowski is hardly a disaster, but 2 of the last 3 need to stay healthy and take a step forward the third time through the lineup. . and we're looking a bit thin after those 6. I'm actually a bit more worried about the bullpen. Having 2 of the Houck/Whitlock/Winckowski group in the pen mitigates the fact Jansen and Martin aren't really back-to-back day pitchers at this point in their careers. They'd also allow a bit more leeway for project guys like Slaten and Mata and Rodriguez. Just one (plus Campbell and Bernardino) makes the pen a little too thin for my taste.
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nomar
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Posts: 10,825
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Post by nomar on Mar 5, 2024 12:15:43 GMT -5
Former front office man Zach Scott raised an interesting point on twitter. He mentioned that sometimes optimizing "stuff" and playing with mechanics can lead to stuff like this. Who knows if that is actually the case, but it doesn't make me feel any better. I'd hope that Bailey, Willard, et al. are careful about this kind of thing. My two cents: All anyone can try to do is get better. You risk getting hurt any time you do anything. Can’t live in fear of stuff like this as painful as it is when bad things happen.
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Post by bloomstaxonomy on Mar 5, 2024 12:16:39 GMT -5
I believe pitchers being injured like this is also a hallmark of the Rays' model for developing pitching. It's going to suck to begin a new program in this fashion because you don't have the pipeline yet but you're still dealing with all the injuries.
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Post by yuchangclan on Mar 5, 2024 12:19:41 GMT -5
They simply must go get a Clevinger or Lorenzen now, right? Right? I’ve given up on Montgomery. Snell was never even a rumor so I’m not even considering him.
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shagworthy
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My neckbeard game is on point.
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Post by shagworthy on Mar 5, 2024 12:20:55 GMT -5
In my mind you have to sell whatever you don't plan on keeping around long term. As much as it will suck for this year, there is nothing out there to be had that makes this even a competitive ball club. Jansen and Martin, gone. Anyone not named Casas, Devers, Mayer, Teel, Anthony, and Rafaela should be available to the highest bidder.
Blow it up, see what the kids can do, and then actually do something for once besides sit on the fence.
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cdj
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Posts: 14,078
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Post by cdj on Mar 5, 2024 12:23:36 GMT -5
I blame Kutter teaching him how to hide the ball better
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Post by Smittyw on Mar 5, 2024 12:25:40 GMT -5
In my mind you have to sell whatever you don't plan on keeping around long term. As much as it will suck for this year, there is nothing out there to be had that makes this even a competitive ball club. Jansen and Martin, gone. Anyone not named Casas, Devers, Mayer, Teel, Anthony, and Rafaela should be available to the highest bidder. Blow it up, see what the kids can do, and then actually do something for once besides sit on the fence. I kind of wish they'd do this as well, but recent history suggests they won't.
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Post by julyanmorley on Mar 5, 2024 12:31:54 GMT -5
The haul from trading Martin, Jansen and Pivetta combined is not going to be all that much. Not a lot of incentive to immediately punt.
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Post by ematz1423 on Mar 5, 2024 12:33:43 GMT -5
The haul from trading Martin, Jansen and Pivetta combined is not going to be all that much. Not a lot of incentive to immediately punt.I think they could conceivably get more at the deadline than they could right now, at least for Martin and Jansen. I think they could probably get a modest return for Pivetta but I highly doubt they turn around and punt on the season right now so it's probably a moot point.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Mar 5, 2024 12:40:02 GMT -5
This sucks but it doesnt have to kill them.
I was expecting quantify from him if not quality.
Makes the offseason decisions all the more weird.
They knew they needed 2 starters so they get Giolito and nobody unless you actually count Criswell.
Then they trade away Sale unexpectedly and lose Paxton and replace neither of them.
At this point I think they should either sign Montgomery or sign both Clevenger and Lorenzen if they can get short deals for them as I suspect they can.
The injury is to Giolito forces both Houck and an injury history guy like Whitlock into the rotation, which is not ideal and it hurts the pen although it's good news for a 2nd lefty like Rodriguez and for Kelly and Weissert, but it definitely weakens the pen.
If the Sox sign Montgomery then they would need only 1 of Whitlock or Houck to assert themselves which is more manageable, at least until the next injury anyways.
Best case scenario. They sign Montgomery and Whitlock or Houck finally becomes the starter they hoped he'd be.
That could work okay.
More likely, they won't go that route. Theyll probably sign either Clevenger or Lorenzen, but not both and they wont have nearly enough pitching.
So not good, but it doesn't have to be a killer.
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Post by sxfan on Mar 5, 2024 12:42:48 GMT -5
The haul from trading Martin, Jansen and Pivetta combined is not going to be all that much. Not a lot of incentive to immediately punt.I think they could conceivably get more at the deadline than they could right now, at least for Martin and Jansen. I think they could probably get a modest return for Pivetta but I highly doubt they turn around and punt on the season right now so it's probably a moot point. Jansen won't get you much, Martin's value is going to decrease on the season begins. He stranded nearly 94 percent of batters last year with a 1.05 ERA and a 2.44 FIP on top of a .301 Babip. With one full year of modest money, if you're not trading Martin now, it would be a missed opportunity. He's not improving from the season he just had. There's not a better bullpen arm on the market than him either right now.
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cdj
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Posts: 14,078
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Post by cdj on Mar 5, 2024 12:45:15 GMT -5
I think they could conceivably get more at the deadline than they could right now, at least for Martin and Jansen. I think they could probably get a modest return for Pivetta but I highly doubt they turn around and punt on the season right now so it's probably a moot point. Jansen won't get you much, Martin's value is going to decrease on the season begins. He stranded nearly 94 percent of batters last year with a 1.05 ERA and a 2.44 FIP on top of a .301 Babip. With one full year of modest money, if you're not trading Martin now, it would be a missed opportunity. He's not improving from the season he just had. There's not a better bullpen arm on the market than him either right now. True but I also feel like teams are less likely to pay a premium for a bullpen arm right now, it’s such a volatile position that they probably want to see Martin continue with his effectiveness while also seeing what they have in their own pen first. Probably also want to make sure their team is good before investing a decent amount into trading for a reliever
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Post by bishop on Mar 5, 2024 12:45:46 GMT -5
The haul from trading Martin, Jansen and Pivetta combined is not going to be all that much. Not a lot of incentive to immediately punt.I think they could conceivably get more at the deadline than they could right now, at least for Martin and Jansen. I think they could probably get a modest return for Pivetta but I highly doubt they turn around and punt on the season right now so it's probably a moot point. I think Pivetta would also increase his value substantially if he does well as a full time starter the next few months (but in that case I'd be hoping we extend him not trade him.) Either way even as someone who has been fine with Houck/Whitlock/Wincowski competing for the 5th spot having them as the 3-5 to start the season would be laughably bad, no way that happens. If he pitches well and extension talks are far apart in July maybe we're out of the race enough and a minor league starter has stepped forward or some of that trio have been holding it down as starters enough a trade makes sense, but moving him now would be terrible.
Brutal news, we'll see if they do sign another starter. Not sure this makes it more or less likely, have been assuming all along it's less than 50% we do but someone needs to sign them, those demands have to be falling a bit at some point.
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Post by bishop on Mar 5, 2024 12:50:18 GMT -5
Jansen won't get you much, Martin's value is going to decrease on the season begins. He stranded nearly 94 percent of batters last year with a 1.05 ERA and a 2.44 FIP on top of a .301 Babip. With one full year of modest money, if you're not trading Martin now, it would be a missed opportunity. He's not improving from the season he just had. There's not a better bullpen arm on the market than him either right now. True but I also feel like teams are less likely to pay a premium for a bullpen arm right now, it’s such a volatile position that they probably want to see Martin continue with his effectiveness while also seeing what they have in their own pen first. Probably also want to make sure their team is good before investing a decent amount into trading for a reliever Reliever trades are just weird sometimes. Didn't think Schreiber would get someone as good as Sandlin, or Chapman would have been traded for what he was last season. I think there's value to waiting and seeing if a team gets desperate and decides Martin is THE piece they need - I doubt anyone is expecting him to put up that ERA again but if it's July and he is for the 2nd year in a row that seems like exactly the kind of reliever a team makes a bad short term move for.
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Post by urgent on Mar 5, 2024 12:52:02 GMT -5
Yeah. They can probably still make last place without him. Seemed to be the general approach.
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