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Lucas Giolito has a partially torn UCL
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Post by notstarboard on Mar 5, 2024 12:53:36 GMT -5
A small bit of silver lining is Giolito will likely be here through 2026. Sox have a $14million club option for '26 if Giolito has less than 140IP in 2025. I wouldn’t be so sure Giolito will be anything other than $19M in dead weight next year. This is a lose-lose for the Red Sox. He was already coming off of two down years. Now throwing surgery in the mix? This could be it for him just as easily as any other outcome His last two years were down years by his standards, but they weren't that bad. Still 346 IP and 63 GS with a respectable 4.23 xERA in '22, and given that his xERA for the year in 2023 was 4.65, he was probably low 4s until the deadline when his life got set on fire. He'll still only be 30 next year, and if he gets TJ this month he'll likely get at least a half a season of pitching in. I don't think $19 million for him will be the end of the world for 2025 and it'll probably be a value for 2026.
Of course, yes, this could also be just another stanza in a rapid decline. You never know.
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Post by chaimtime on Mar 5, 2024 12:54:08 GMT -5
I don’t think the season is totally tanked yet, but it really is tough when one of the higher probability, high-impact things that need to go right for the team to make the playoffs has already gone catastrophically wrong. Relying a lot more on Houck/Whitlock to stick in the rotation and Bello taking a step forward. Not totally impossible to recover from, but it’s gonna be even tougher now.
They really need to pick up one of the pitchers left on the market now, feels like Lorenzen makes a lot of sense to add to the mix of swing men.
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Post by sxfan on Mar 5, 2024 12:54:48 GMT -5
Jansen won't get you much, Martin's value is going to decrease on the season begins. He stranded nearly 94 percent of batters last year with a 1.05 ERA and a 2.44 FIP on top of a .301 Babip. With one full year of modest money, if you're not trading Martin now, it would be a missed opportunity. He's not improving from the season he just had. There's not a better bullpen arm on the market than him either right now. True but I also feel like teams are less likely to pay a premium for a bullpen arm right now, it’s such a volatile position that they probably want to see Martin continue with his effectiveness while also seeing what they have in their own pen first. Probably also want to make sure their team is good before investing a decent amount into trading for a reliever I don't see that being the case. I see it as "get something good for him while you can versus- hold onto him and try to get some team to panic at the deadline." Martin will be 37. He's prone to falling off a cliff with performance and/or injury more than most pitchers because of age.
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Post by trotman on Mar 5, 2024 12:57:27 GMT -5
I wouldn’t be so sure Giolito will be anything other than $19M in dead weight next year. This is a lose-lose for the Red Sox. He was already coming off of two down years. Now throwing surgery in the mix? This could be it for him just as easily as any other outcome His last two years were down years by his standards, but they weren't that bad. Still 346 IP and 63 GS with a respectable 4.23 xERA in '22, and given that his xERA for the year in 2023 was 4.65, he was probably low 4s until the deadline when his life got set on fire. He'll still only be 30 next year, and if he gets TJ this month he'll likely get at least a half a season of pitching in. I don't think $19 million for him will be the end of the world for 2025 and it'll probably be a value for 2026.
Of course, yes, this could also be just another stanza in a rapid decline. You never know.
To counter my silver linings, if he does have TJ this will be his 2nd. I forgot his first happened in 2014 right after he was drafted by the Nationals.
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Mar 5, 2024 13:02:42 GMT -5
In my mind you have to sell whatever you don't plan on keeping around long term. As much as it will suck for this year, there is nothing out there to be had that makes this even a competitive ball club. Jansen and Martin, gone. Anyone not named Casas, Devers, Mayer, Teel, Anthony, and Rafaela should be available to the highest bidder. Blow it up, see what the kids can do, and then actually do something for once besides sit on the fence. It already sucked in ‘22 and ‘23. At least let’s enjoy seeing what we have with this current group of players who have much to offer; see how they continue to develop. After all this bridge building and farm building, as well as imminent talent, no reason to start over again. The old pearl “perish the thought” describes that approach. The Sox actually have a solid young base. A couple of pitchers and that big bat were considered enough to make them contend. I am not in favor of just blowing off guys like Bello, Houck, Mata, Murphy, Pivetta, Slaten, Whitlock, Winckowski, Abreu, Duran, Grissom, O’Neill, Story, Wong, Yoshida, more. Blowing it up would certainly not guarantee acquiring this much talent or talent as interesting. Just add to this group Mr Henry.
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Post by ixnayexxus on Mar 5, 2024 13:05:03 GMT -5
Spring Training has become the most stressful time of the year for me; pitchers suffering season ending injuries are a given at this point, and this time around there is a distinct lack of signings around the league to distract me from it.
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Post by chaimtime on Mar 5, 2024 13:24:00 GMT -5
True but I also feel like teams are less likely to pay a premium for a bullpen arm right now, it’s such a volatile position that they probably want to see Martin continue with his effectiveness while also seeing what they have in their own pen first. Probably also want to make sure their team is good before investing a decent amount into trading for a reliever I don't see that being the case. I see it as "get something good for him while you can versus- hold onto him and try to get some team to panic at the deadline." Martin will be 37. He's prone to falling off a cliff with performance and/or injury more than most pitchers because of age. I do think Martin has a profile that should age well, and I think the fact that he literally does not walk anyone gives him a good shot to continue outperforming his FIP. Since he moved to LA in ‘22, he’s thrown 76 innings, struck out 80, walked 9 (3 intentional) and given up 3 home runs, it’s not all luck. He’s got a lot of room to decline this year while remaining the best reliever available at the deadline. Might as well see what happens with the young guns in the rotation and hope someone’s desperate at the deadline. I don’t think you’re risking very much by doing so.
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Post by incandenza on Mar 5, 2024 14:10:46 GMT -5
Spring Training has become the most stressful time of the year for me; pitchers suffering season ending injuries are a given at this point, and this time around there is a distinct lack of signings around the league to distract me from it. I've been saying it for years - March is the worst month on the baseball calendar. The offseason frenzy is over but the season hasn't begun. Games are played that look like baseball games but aren't really baseball games. Things happen that look like news but aren't really news. The only real news that can happen is a guy gets injured and, well, here we are.
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Post by incandenza on Mar 5, 2024 14:15:38 GMT -5
The haul from trading Martin, Jansen and Pivetta combined is not going to be all that much. Not a lot of incentive to immediately punt. Plus it's cowardly and pathetic. The loss of Giolito knocks their projections down by a win or two, which is just one or two fly balls that go barely foul rather than barely fair. And now if this team is good, it really has to be on the backs of a bunch of scrappy rookies breaking through. Just think of the Netflix documentary narrative arc!
(And then sell everything not nailed down at the trade deadline if they stink.)
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Post by maxwellsdemon on Mar 5, 2024 14:18:14 GMT -5
Wow, the crape hanging around heere has gotten totally out of hand, what do we have a bunch of sports talk radio rejects joining the site to whine and complain? This team is transitioning to a young and exciting group with more on the way and they are going to bond on the fact that everyone is dissing them before the first pitch is thrown in anger.
On the other hand, how nervous are the Dodgers having committed over $1 BILLION to two pitchers (although Ohtani will recoup some of that as a batter) as they see yet another workhorse go down with an apparent season ending injury?
Hopefully we can at least wait until the games that count start before the "woe is us" drowns out the rest because reading this stuff ad infinitum is not my ides of a good time.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Mar 5, 2024 14:24:39 GMT -5
Wow, the crape hanging around heere has gotten totally out of hand, what do we have a bunch of sports talk radio rejects joining the site to whine and complain? This team is transitioning to a young and exciting group with more on the way and they are going to bond on the fact that everyone is dissing them before the first pitch is thrown in anger. On the other hand, how nervous are the Dodgers having committed over $1 BILLION to two pitchers (although Ohtani will recoup some of that as a batter) as they see yet another workhorse go down with an apparent season ending injury? Hopefully we can at least wait until the games that count start before the "woe is us" drowns out the rest because reading this stuff ad infinitum is not my ides of a good time. In general I agree that this board tends to get a little dramatic, though nowhere near as bad as other places. But I feel like news that a projected key starter is out for the year is a pretty reasonable place to be a little upset. Also, it's a little insane that you chastise folks here for their reactions but suggest that the Dodgers should be reacting nervously to a pitcher on another team getting hurt.. just a bit ironic. Also the age old "if reading this isn't a good time for you, don't click it" always applies.
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Post by maxwellsdemon on Mar 5, 2024 14:30:55 GMT -5
Yeah I know about the don't click it, but I'm a glutton for punishment (been following the Sox as an aware human since the early to mid fifties) so there's that. As to the Dodgers, I was thinking about the management/ownership, and while I expect that they may get some insurance to spread the risk it certainly just got a bit more expensive with that wakeup call.
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Post by lancect on Mar 5, 2024 14:35:04 GMT -5
How does insurance on Giolito impact how his salary counts against our spending?
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Post by maxwellsdemon on Mar 5, 2024 14:41:50 GMT -5
How does insurance on Giolito impact how his salary counts against our spending? Not in the slightest, but it certainly makes a difference to the wealth of ownership and if you have a fragile asset it would not be unusual to insure it.
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Post by okin15 on Mar 5, 2024 14:50:43 GMT -5
Next thing we'll hear is that Sale doesn't miss a start all year :-(
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Mar 5, 2024 14:51:17 GMT -5
Is this an injury that can just pop up whenever or did the Red Sox miss something in the physical (or just not care enough)? It seems odd this kind of injury would pop up at the very beginning of March after signing as a free agent.
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Post by grandsalami on Mar 5, 2024 15:07:34 GMT -5
Is this an injury that can just pop up whenever or did the Red Sox miss something in the physical (or just not care enough)? It seems odd this kind of injury would pop up st the very beginning of March after signing as a free agent. Injuries can just happen... IIRC the last few years there was a large rise in arm injuries league-wide for pitchers. And the sox are pretty good at catching these things during physicals... See Lackey and Napoli who had their deals altered due to stuff discovered during the psychical
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Post by trajanacc on Mar 5, 2024 15:11:25 GMT -5
Obviously this hurts our chances, but not nearly enough to consider punting on the season or whatever.
On paper he’s worth a few extra wins, which is really not much over the course of a 162 game season in which luck and injuries will always play a significant role.
Maybe the realistic range for this team is now 63-93 wins instead of 65-95. Still would like to see a few months of actual final scores of ballgames before we decide to give up hope.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Mar 5, 2024 15:24:52 GMT -5
In retrospect, I wonder if the Red Sox had some concerns about his arm from the beginning.
The 1 year deal was odd given where this team is at. But a 3rd year injury-insurance team option after a 2nd year player option, on a 1 year deal, is extremely unusual (I don't think it has ever been done before).
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Post by strike23 on Mar 5, 2024 15:32:33 GMT -5
Obviously this hurts our chances, but not nearly enough to consider punting on the season or whatever. On paper he’s worth a few extra wins, which is really not much over the course of a 162 game season in which luck and injuries will always play a significant role. Maybe the realistic range for this team is now 63-93 wins instead of 65-95. Still would like to see a few months of actual final scores of ballgames before we decide to give up hope. This is my take as well. I also think part of the haven't signed a Lorenzen type pitcher is that they didn't want to sign here without a clear path to the rotation in Boston. If this makes it easier to sign one him/clevinger/whoever and/or we "discover" that both Houck and Whitlock are mid-rotation caliber starters we're better off entering 2025 and probably performed about as well as if Giolito had his projected season and one of Houck/Whitlock were in the pen. Its certainly a tighter rope and the negative tail of outcomes just grew some but he was projected to have only the 4th best ERA in our rotation, its to be seen if Crawford/Houck/Whitlock/Winck can stay health and absorb those innings or not but if they can the teams upside might actually be higher? Edit: There's also the chance he doesn't end up needing season ending surgery, "partial tear" technically describes any sprain or worse and could be anything from minor sprain to basically torn
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Post by incandenza on Mar 5, 2024 15:35:48 GMT -5
In retrospect, I wonder if the Red Sox had some concerns about his arm from the beginning. The 1 year deal was odd given where this team is at. But a 3rd year injury-insurance team option after a 2nd year player option, on a 1 year deal, is extremely unusual (I don't think it has ever been done before). If they thought he was a risk, that makes their approach to SP depth for this season even more questionable.
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Post by asm18 on Mar 5, 2024 15:43:44 GMT -5
Obviously this hurts our chances, but not nearly enough to consider punting on the season or whatever. On paper he’s worth a few extra wins, which is really not much over the course of a 162 game season in which luck and injuries will always play a significant role. Maybe the realistic range for this team is now 63-93 wins instead of 65-95. Still would like to see a few months of actual final scores of ballgames before we decide to give up hope. This is my take as well. I also think part of the haven't signed a Lorenzen type pitcher is that they didn't want to sign here without a clear path to the rotation in Boston. If this makes it easier to sign one him/clevinger/whoever and/or we "discover" that both Houck and Whitlock are mid-rotation caliber starters we're better off entering 2025 and probably performed about as well as if Giolito had his projected season and one of Houck/Whitlock were in the pen. Its certainly a tighter rope and the negative tail of outcomes just grew some but he was projected to have only the 4th best ERA in our rotation, its to be seen if Crawford/Houck/Whitlock/Winck can stay health and absorb those innings or not but if they can the teams upside might actually be higher? I agree with a lot of this. Giolito (whose stuff looked and graded out quite good in the small bit we saw) was projected for like 170-180 innings of 4.50 to 4.70ish ERA. We certainly were hoping for a bounceback to what he was in his prime, but that wasn't necessarily the main goal signing him - it was "throw a lot, and don't completely suck." In a way this feels like a redux of 2023 Kluber, where they were banking on him as the "steady" guy going into the season with Bello a rookie and Sale a constant injury risk - but instead of getting elbow surgery Kluber just ends up absolutely washed. In a bit of irony, possible trade candidates that they passed on to replace the ghost of Kluber in the summer of last year exist as options to replace Giolito in Montgomery & Lorenzen.
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Post by briam on Mar 5, 2024 15:48:26 GMT -5
The baseball gods leaving us with an injured Giolito and banged up Grissom while Sale throws 170 innings in Atlanta is going to be cruel.
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Post by strike23 on Mar 5, 2024 15:52:38 GMT -5
The baseball gods leaving us with an injured Giolito and banged up Grissom while Sale throws 170 innings in Atlanta is going to be cruel. If/when this happens somebody younger than me needs to put money on the next Red Sox World Series win being 2104.
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Post by Guidas on Mar 5, 2024 15:55:46 GMT -5
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