SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
5/27-5/29 Red Sox @ Orioles Series Thread
|
Post by julyanmorley on May 29, 2024 19:32:10 GMT -5
You guys might want to switch over to the Worcester broadcast if you have that available
|
|
|
Post by rhswanzey on May 29, 2024 19:35:07 GMT -5
That was a legit at bat by Hamilton Chase rate 15.1%, MLB average 28.4% Still doesn’t qualify, but it looks like that’s about 95th percentile if he did
|
|
|
Post by dirtdog on May 29, 2024 19:42:37 GMT -5
500% team vs 640% team. O's getting close and get Burnes who looks well worth the investment. We get Giolito who blows out his arm 30 seconds after he gets here. I am just trying to enjoy the season a game at a time but we all knew we were looking mid pack when Henry opted for bridge season number 6. This season is about the farm anyway.
|
|
|
Post by soxfansince67 on May 29, 2024 19:52:24 GMT -5
The big .500 magnet is pulling us back.
|
|
asm18
Veteran
Posts: 2,543
|
Post by asm18 on May 29, 2024 19:58:21 GMT -5
That was quite possibly the most predictable grand slam in history. If my son didn't have my phone I was going to post grand slam in t - 3...2...Sure, the ump missed strike one, but Henderson did not miss strike two.. Chase Anderson vs Francisco Lindor, dropped third strike, wasn’t that long ago I believe you’re actually referring to Cleveland star third baseman Roger Dorn
|
|
art
Veteran
Posts: 382
|
Post by art on May 29, 2024 19:58:28 GMT -5
Smith at .187 and Grissom at .137 are a pretty gaping hole in this line up. 73 at bats for Grissom - getting to be a lot. Just turned the game on. Looked at the box - the grand slam really skews the game - score and box differ by that slam. Crawford aside from that seems like he has been fine. Other than that, Mrs. Lincoln, how did you like the play?
|
|
cdj
Veteran
Posts: 15,659
|
Post by cdj on May 29, 2024 21:39:57 GMT -5
Valdez playing a little LF is interesting
|
|
|
Post by pappyman99 on May 29, 2024 21:45:42 GMT -5
500% team vs 640% team. O's getting close and get Burnes who looks well worth the investment. We get Giolito who blows out his arm 30 seconds after he gets here. I am just trying to enjoy the season a game at a time but we all knew we were looking mid pack when Henry opted for bridge season number 6. This season is about the farm anyway. When you look at the Os roster vs ours (Pre Burnes) you don’t see why the Os would be more inclined to go after Burnes than us?
|
|
|
Post by julyanmorley on May 29, 2024 21:54:39 GMT -5
Didn't realize Duran and Crawford are going to be super twos
|
|
|
Post by philsbosoxfan on May 29, 2024 23:57:19 GMT -5
Didn't realize Duran and Crawford are going to be super twos Both should have been extended this past off season.
|
|
|
Post by threeifbaerga on May 30, 2024 8:17:53 GMT -5
Didn't realize Duran and Crawford are going to be super twos Both should have been extended this past off season. Hindsight is 20/20 and all but I don't think anyone was clamoring for extensions. Many more we're talking about trading Duran than extending him. Crawford was coming off of a good 129 inning but not world beating and will be 32 before he hits free agency. Same for Duran.
|
|
|
Post by thegoodthebadthesox on May 30, 2024 9:05:49 GMT -5
Both should have been extended this past off season. Hindsight is 20/20 and all but I don't think anyone was clamoring for extensions. Many more we're talking about trading Duran than extending him. Crawford was coming off of a good 129 inning but not world beating and will be 32 before he hits free agency. Same for Duran. Agree, extending Duran would obviously look good now but would’ve been bad process and Crawford didn’t make sense as an extension candidate at all.
|
|
|
Post by philsbosoxfan on May 30, 2024 9:26:51 GMT -5
So then we're still in disagreement. Me (and others) were calling for a Braves like approach all off season. Being wrong doesn't mean everyone had to be wrong. That's rationalizing.
|
|
|
Post by bojacksoxfan on May 30, 2024 9:50:24 GMT -5
So then we're still in disagreement. Me (and others) were calling for a Braves like approach all off season. Being wrong doesn't mean everyone had to be wrong. That's rationalizing. But what are you right about? People just say "extension" like they are all the same and equally good, but they are not. At its most basic level an extension should extend the control a team has over a player. So when the Braves bring up players like Acuna, Albies, Harris, et al in their early 20s they can give extensions to extend their team control from 26-28 or something out to 30-32 or something. The extensions basically wrap up their primes and then some. But unfortunately for late bloomers like Duran and Crawford they are already under control through their age 32 season. The Sox have control over them through their primes and then some already. When you say it was a mistake to not give them extensions are you really saying I wanted the Sox to sign them to their age 33+ seasons? That is not actually what the Braves have been doing. Yes, there are cost certainty benefits to a long-term deal that isn't really much of a team control extension, but those are pretty minor generally and not really the huge upside successes that most people want from extensions. And honestly, we are seeing the downside with Whitlock. They got a one or two year control extension, but will end up overpaying him by several million dollars through his arb years. I don't think the Sox are going to be in the business of signing non elite players to longterm deals covering their age 33+ seasons whether those deals are pure FA ones or called extensions. And I think that's generally good business.
|
|
|
Post by thegoodthebadthesox on May 30, 2024 9:56:52 GMT -5
So then we're still in disagreement. Me (and others) were calling for a Braves like approach all off season. Being wrong doesn't mean everyone had to be wrong. That's rationalizing. If you’re conflating a “Braves line approach” with extending Kutter Crawford then I don’t think you have a clue what that approach actually means. But as usual, you are correct in hindsight, well done!
|
|
orion09
Veteran
Posts: 1,307
Member is Online
|
Post by orion09 on May 30, 2024 9:58:09 GMT -5
Also, Duran will be 32 when he hits FA, and his player profile may not be one that ages the best. (See Ellsbury, Jacoby.) He’s still only hitting for a 111 wRC+, so a lot of his value is in his speed and defense. If he looks like he might beat the aging curve, there’s still time to lock him up.
|
|
|
Post by philsbosoxfan on May 30, 2024 10:35:41 GMT -5
Take a closer look at Crawford, the signs have been there all along. His rookie year, for example, was a mix of good and bad but 5 quality starts mixed in is impressive and gives a major clue to his ceiling (to me, solid #3) which has value.
Duran's Salem (when it was A+) showed what he was capable of. He was spraying line drives all over the field. Coupled with his speed, that's a good thing. The only question was defense and he was decent the last part of last year.
The Braves don't just sign young superstars. They just extended Chris Sale.
I was also calling for signing Houck and Wong. Casas I wanted but didn't think he'd sign. Abreau and Grissom I thought should wait until this off season.
That's not a 20/20 view. stick your hindsight comment where the sun don't shine.
|
|
|
Post by philsbosoxfan on May 30, 2024 10:39:10 GMT -5
Using Ellsbury is a lazy comp. Brett Gardner is much more appropriate.
|
|
|
Post by julyanmorley on May 30, 2024 10:42:30 GMT -5
Early career extensions don't really make sense unless the guy is really young because the prize is their free agent years and very few players rate to be valuable in their mid 30's.
|
|
|
Post by thegoodthebadthesox on May 30, 2024 10:56:37 GMT -5
Take a closer look at Crawford, the signs have been there all along. His rookie year, for example, was a mix of good and bad but 5 quality starts mixed in is impressive and gives a major clue to his ceiling (to me, solid #3) which has value. Duran's Salem (when it was A+) showed what he was capable of. He was spraying line drives all over the field. Coupled with his speed, that's a good thing. The only question was defense and he was decent the last part of last year. The Braves don't just sign young superstars. They just extended Chris Sale. I was also calling for signing Houck and Wong. Casas I wanted but didn't think he'd sign. Abreau and Grissom I thought should wait until this off season. That's not a 20/20 view. stick your hindsight comment where the sun don't shine. Okay, you still don't seem to get it, so I will try one last time. The question is never whether or not he is a good pitcher, or had a ceiling. The debate over extending him is whether it's worth tacking on extra year's to a starting pitcher, the most volatile position in the game, who is going to be relatively inexpensive through his age 32 season. With Duran, you can talk about what he did in Salem in **2019** all you want, but the player he was from 2021-2022 was completely different, even within that stretch, and there was legitimate reason for concern that he wasn't going to work as a full-time outfielder. Prior to this season, he had almost an identical number of PA's at the MLB level in which he was a bad player as he did a good player. I know you love to crap on BABIP as if you're the scouting eye's gift to baseball, but given those two things, when there is data that suggests regression is not only possible but likely barring an outlier level talent, it's not a good process to extend that player when, like Crawford, he's cost-controlled into his early 30's. On the flip side, if you want to make a case for extending a guy like Rafaela, it's because you know there is a baseline floor that you're going to be getting out of them, and that the extension will carry a player through his prime and into FA at an age where you would still be comfortable re-signing him to a long-term deal. "The Braves don't just sign young superstars. They just extended Chris Sale." I mean, give me a break, what an eye roll inducing comment. They extended Sale for two years, that's not a Braves-specific thing, that's just baseball business. I'm glad that in whatever reality you live in, you were right on the money with your calls for extensions. Truly happy for you, but if you don't think you've made use of hindsight in an attempt to make yourself look like you know more than you do (you want to take about your takes on Rafaela's hitting? Because I'd sure love to, those were a lock to age like milk), then I'm just not sure there's any getting through to you.
|
|
|
Post by scottysmalls on May 30, 2024 12:00:53 GMT -5
That was a legit at bat by Hamilton Chase rate 15.1%, MLB average 28.4% Still doesn’t qualify, but it looks like that’s about 95th percentile if he did starting to edge towards Hamilton in the 2B of the future power rankings
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 9,016
|
Post by ericmvan on May 30, 2024 12:21:17 GMT -5
Number of Games played against three worst teams in MLB, according to schedule-adjusted run differential (White Sox, Rockies, Marlins)
12: Phi 10: Tor, Cle, SD, Ari 9: TB, SF 8: Atl 7: KC, Min, Was, ChC, Pit 6: NYY, Det, Oak, StL 4: Bal 3: Sea, Tex, LAA, NYM, Mil, Cin, LAD 2: Hou 0: Bos
|
|
|
Post by rhswanzey on May 30, 2024 13:03:49 GMT -5
Chase rate 15.1%, MLB average 28.4% Still doesn’t qualify, but it looks like that’s about 95th percentile if he did starting to edge towards Hamilton in the 2B of the future power rankings His arm strength rates 42nd percentile, which, while not great, is a lot better than expectations and the eye test. If he can be primary-back up-at-shortstop capable instead of emergency/third-shortstop capable, that’s a big leg up on some of that grouping. Maybe that’s more like his true defensive level after the rookie/game speeding up on him period in April. I imagine they want to avoid yo-yo’ing Rafaela and see his CF defense as superior to solid to good infield defense.
|
|
|
Post by incandenza on May 30, 2024 16:21:58 GMT -5
Jeez...tough crowd. good contact on 3-2, run scores, and folks are giving Dom the business. WTF ? Would we call it "good," really...?
Even before that play Smith has compiled a kind of unfathomable -1.4 BsR, the worst on the team, in only 81 PAs (and what, like 12 times on base?). I'm pretty sure he's the worst in the majors by BsR per plate appearance.
Smith is now at -1.8 BsR. 14th worst in the majors but everyone worse than him has more than twice as many PAs. He's easily the worst on a rate basis.
In fact, yikes, it looks like the five worst baserunners on a rate basis, min. 80 PAs, are:
1. Dominic Smith (-1.8 in 85 PAs) 2. Nick Castellanos (-3.6 in 236 PAs) 3. Masataka Yoshida (-1.3 in 89 PAs) 4. Will Benson (-2.6 in 192 PAs)
5. Triston Casas (-1.2 in 90 PAs)
|
|
|
Post by itinerantherb on May 30, 2024 16:25:26 GMT -5
Three Sox at or near the top of the leaderboard!!! Oh...wait...
|
|
|