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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 20, 2024 6:58:59 GMT -5
So now we have a real big four. Time will see their potential career trajectories in clearer light. Love to have all four succeed, and, given my druthers, the next year sees the Sox sort out their MIF with two reliable, consistent choices for the long/term. Hope its Mayer and Campbell. You can hope all you want, but Mayer's injury issues are really starting to become an issue. Shortstops with back problems is sort of an oxymoron, and the latest "day to day" situation has gone on for 3 weeks now. I very much doubt that Story is going to play SS next season. He's getting to an age where that isn't going to be more than an occasional option. If anything, he holds down 2B and the Sox have to sort out SS in the short term while they figure out exactly what they have or don't have in Mayer. It doesn't look as though Mayer is going to get any significant PT in Worcester this season, so he may need most of next year to show himself to be ready for the Show, IF the injury bug doesn't bite him again. If so, and yeah, Mayer's injury history is a concern, then maybe Campbell gets longer looks at SS just in case.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Aug 20, 2024 10:55:18 GMT -5
To be clear, it's not like the back problem is responsible for all of his missed time. It's been something different each time, it seems.
The tough part to parse here in determining whether to be worried is how much of it is the team being extremely careful with him. We'll have to wait and see.
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Post by bosoxnation on Aug 20, 2024 21:22:30 GMT -5
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Post by blizzards39 on Aug 20, 2024 22:25:18 GMT -5
And a nIce game by Campbell today aswell, but Roman says hold on a Minute and trumps him.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Aug 20, 2024 23:38:16 GMT -5
I already had Campbell as my top Sox prospect since before about the time the "big 3" got to AAA. I think he's the best combo of offense and defense in the system. The only thing missing here is the pedigree.
lol, fortunately, my vote doesn't count.
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Post by bettsonmookie on Aug 21, 2024 9:21:05 GMT -5
Obviously this is an impossible hypothetical to answer with any real certainty...
However, if the 2023 draft was re-selected today, with everything we know about the players within the class, where would K-Camp likely be selected?
There are a handful of T15 selections that are not on MLB Pipeline's T100, which has K-Camp at 79. All T10 selections are listed in Pipeline T100.
By that logic, it would appear he would fall into approximately in the T10-T15 range. Is that fair?
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Post by ematz1423 on Aug 21, 2024 9:23:57 GMT -5
Obviously this is an impossible hypothetical to answer with any real certainty... However, if the 2023 draft was re-selected today, with everything we know about the players within the class, where would K-Camp likely be selected? There are a handful of T15 selections that are not on MLB Pipeline's T100, which has K-Camp at 79. All T10 selections are listed in Pipeline T100. By that logic, it would appear he would fall into approximately in the T10-T15 range. Is that fair? That feels like a fair way to look at it in my eyes. Almost certainly a first rounder either way in a hypothetical re-draft.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Aug 21, 2024 9:28:04 GMT -5
Obviously this is an impossible hypothetical to answer with any real certainty... However, if the 2023 draft was re-selected today, with everything we know about the players within the class, where would K-Camp likely be selected? There are a handful of T15 selections that are not on MLB Pipeline's T100, which has K-Camp at 79. All T10 selections are listed in Pipeline T100. By that logic, it would appear he would fall into approximately in the T10-T15 range. Is that fair? I think that's a fair guestimation. What I can't get out of my head is all this talk about how polarizing of a prospect Campbell is. Some scouts think he's going to struggle at the MLB level and others think he's for real. I suppose if we could visit hypothetical land I'll get even crazier than you. A team in the top ten who is a believer in his talents maybe takes him and cuts a deal. So there you have it, 3 out of 4 years getting a top ten draft prospect and sprinkle in a little Roman Anthony inbetween.
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 11,497
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Post by nomar on Aug 21, 2024 9:56:22 GMT -5
I already had Campbell as my top Sox prospect since before about the time the "big 3" got to AAA. I think he's the best combo of offense and defense in the system. The only thing missing here is the pedigree. lol, fortunately, my vote doesn't count. I’m not sure what to make of his defense. Baseball Prospectus’ DRP didn’t like him in Greenville and had him just above average in Portland, but you can’t split that out by position and he was playing a lot of 2B and CF. With his athleticism I feel like he should be able to play a good 2B, but do we know that for sure yet? Not that I’ve seen
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Post by awalkinthepark on Aug 21, 2024 10:02:49 GMT -5
Paraphrasing a bit but in the most recent MLB pipeline podcast, Jim Callis said he believes that the Red Sox think Kristian Campbell is just as good as Anthony/Mayer/Teel, and he thinks some other clubs feel the same way. Mayo also added that he gets Mookie vibes from him in the sense that he's a 2B/OF, late round draft pick who rocketed through the minors.
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Post by nonothing on Aug 21, 2024 10:20:57 GMT -5
So does anyone have a review of Campbell's defense within the last month or so at SS vs 2B vs OF?
Most reviews have him as sub-50 field, but then he moves everywhere and is by all accounts a stellar athlete.
Is he a legit SS prospect? Is he legit as an infield prospect at all at 2B? Are his OF solid now or projected to be?
The whole projection of him as a player is mystifying. Until you can match a likely MLB starting defensive spot for him, he is just a pile of tools.
I have never seen a guy everyone thought could hit like this with no real eye for where he might best fit defensively. Sometimes guys move for opportunity... but I am not sure I have ever heard of a guy this toolsy without a clear preference for where the org thought his defensive home might best be.
E.g. for Rafaela, it is CF (even if he can play elsewhere). Mookie moved to OF for opportunity given Pedey.
What is this guy's natural position? And is he avg or better at it?
I would expect the Sox to be heavily working his defense where they expect his home to be in AFL/offseason.
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Post by dcb26 on Aug 21, 2024 10:42:00 GMT -5
I do get that it's probably a symptom of him moving so fast, but it is kind of amazing how little information there seems to be about his defense. The live looks of a couple of people who post here (which are always much appreciated!) are the most I have heard, I think.
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Post by incandenza on Aug 21, 2024 10:48:44 GMT -5
I do get that it's probably a symptom of him moving so fast, but it is kind of amazing how little information there seems to be about his defense. The live looks of a couple of people who post here (which are always much appreciated!) are the most I have heard, I think. Even the scouting report on him here is basically "Projects as a possible infielder or outfielder and could be either good or not good."
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Post by wOBA Fett on Aug 21, 2024 12:22:43 GMT -5
How does Campbell's rise compare to Mookie?
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mobaz
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Posts: 3,011
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Post by mobaz on Aug 21, 2024 12:29:17 GMT -5
Obviously this is an impossible hypothetical to answer with any real certainty... However, if the 2023 draft was re-selected today, with everything we know about the players within the class, where would K-Camp likely be selected? There are a handful of T15 selections that are not on MLB Pipeline's T100, which has K-Camp at 79. All T10 selections are listed in Pipeline T100. By that logic, it would appear he would fall into approximately in the T10-T15 range. Is that fair? I think that's a fair guestimation. What I can't get out of my head is all this talk about how polarizing of a prospect Campbell is. Some scouts think he's going to struggle at the MLB level and others think he's for real. I suppose if we could visit hypothetical land I'll get even crazier than you. A team in the top ten who is a believer in his talents maybe takes him and cuts a deal. So there you have it, 3 out of 4 years getting a top ten draft prospect and sprinkle in a little Roman Anthony inbetween. If he spent one more year in school (and grew his power similarly) would he have basically been competing with Christian Moore as Mature College Hitter with some bat questions but mostly field questions? Moore is #80 on pipeline, and 4 months younger.
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Post by incandenza on Aug 21, 2024 12:35:53 GMT -5
How does Campbell's rise compare to Mookie? Two ways to compare their trajectories:
Campbell is 521 PAs into his pro career and has just made it to AAA. At a comparable point Mookie had a 163 wRC+ in A ball and was a couple weeks from being promoted to high-A.
Of course Mookie started much younger. By age Campbell is 22 years 1 month. At 22.1 Mookie had just finished his 2014 season in which he shot through AA (177 wRC+) and AAA (158 wRC+) and had a third of a season under his belt in the major leagues (129 wRC+).
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Post by julyanmorley on Aug 21, 2024 13:03:01 GMT -5
Mookie's first breakout year he beat up on A-ball pitching, got himself into the top 100 lists and some of the spreadsheets were extremely high on him. That's kinda where Campbell is now, although he is at a more advanced level. Then the next year he had another bnreakout year and flawlessly demolished the upper minors, was the consensus #2 prospect behind Byron Buxton and then lost his rookie eligibility while kicking ass in the majors so there wasn't even a moment for the haters to doubt him
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Post by nonothing on Aug 21, 2024 13:14:41 GMT -5
I think that's a fair guestimation. What I can't get out of my head is all this talk about how polarizing of a prospect Campbell is. Some scouts think he's going to struggle at the MLB level and others think he's for real. I suppose if we could visit hypothetical land I'll get even crazier than you. A team in the top ten who is a believer in his talents maybe takes him and cuts a deal. So there you have it, 3 out of 4 years getting a top ten draft prospect and sprinkle in a little Roman Anthony inbetween. If he spent one more year in school (and grew his power similarly) would he have basically been competing with Christian Moore as Mature College Hitter with some bat questions but mostly field questions? Moore is #80 on pipeline, and 4 months younger. The physiques are pretty different to me. Moore is a very thick, strong 6'1" listed 210, but looks stronger/more weight (but good weight for his body) to me? Campbell is 6'3" 190 and lithe/skinny/athletic and fast. When I see Moore, I think powerful. When I see Campbell, I think athlete. So I think Moore will succeed if he hits dingers. Campbell might be a able to do that (probably not as much power), but impact the game in more ways.
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Post by wOBA Fett on Aug 21, 2024 13:19:09 GMT -5
Mookie's first breakout year he beat up on A-ball pitching, got himself into the top 100 lists and some of the spreadsheets were extremely high on him. That's kinda where Campbell is now, although he is at a more advanced level. Then the next year he had another bnreakout year and flawlessly demolished the upper minors, was the consensus #2 prospect behind Byron Buxton and then lost his rookie eligibility while kicking ass in the majors so there wasn't even a moment for the haters to doubt him Campbell's track is not all that different to both Mookie years (granted Breakout Year 1 had much fewer games) and the production in Year 2 is extremely similar. Also makes you wonder what the underlying metrics would have said about Mookie had it been a focus point for FOs during 2013 and 2014. Mookie Campbell
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Post by capesox on Aug 21, 2024 13:52:32 GMT -5
I got Anthony still ahead of Campbell in my head. What Anthony is doing at age 20 is very impressive and he has to be a top 3 prospect in baseball in the off season. Plus, he keeps getting better as the season has gone on. That said, Campbell over Mayer and Teel is a very reasonable take. One that I would agree with at this point.
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Post by puzzler on Aug 21, 2024 13:56:54 GMT -5
I got Anthony still ahead of Campbell in my head. What Anthony is doing at age 20 is very impressive and he has to be a top 3 prospect in baseball in the off season. Plus, he keeps getting better as the season has gone on. That said, Campbell over Mayer and Teel is a very reasonable take. One that I would agree with at this point. This is what I come back to any time someone says they're ok with trading him. These guys don't fall off trees. There are no guarantees, but he has the chance to be stupid special. Trading him for anything at this point seems super foolish. EDIT: Since this is the Campbell thread; his physical attributes are for more enticing than Mayer or Teel. I'm not ready to put him ahead of Mayer yet, but I'm getting closer every day. I like Teel, but Campbell is easily ahead of him IMO.
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Post by bluechip on Aug 21, 2024 14:23:39 GMT -5
So does anyone have a review of Campbell's defense within the last month or so at SS vs 2B vs OF? Most reviews have him as sub-50 field, but then he moves everywhere and is by all accounts a stellar athlete. Is he a legit SS prospect? Is he legit as an infield prospect at all at 2B? Are his OF solid now or projected to be? The whole projection of him as a player is mystifying. Until you can match a likely MLB starting defensive spot for him, he is just a pile of tools. I have never seen a guy everyone thought could hit like this with no real eye for where he might best fit defensively. Sometimes guys move for opportunity... but I am not sure I have ever heard of a guy this toolsy without a clear preference for where the org thought his defensive home might best be. E.g. for Rafaela, it is CF (even if he can play elsewhere). Mookie moved to OF for opportunity given Pedey. What is this guy's natural position? And is he avg or better at it? I would expect the Sox to be heavily working his defense where they expect his home to be in AFL/offseason. There are definitely occasionally guys who have absolutely amazing bats, which force them to the brink of the majors, but who have not had the time needed to develop defensively. For example Bryce Harper got shifted to the outfield after being drafted. His last baseball America scoring report in December 2011 talked about him needing to learn how to play the outfield, while he has the athleticism to play the outfield, he has never been good at it (interestingly advanced stats liked him as an outfielder as a rookie, but hate him thereafter). Obviously Campbell should not be compared to Bryce Harper, but there have always been guys who hit so well they end up in the majors even if they don’t yet have MLB quality defense. Those guys usually get stuck in the outfield. Historically that’s what the Yankees did with Babe Ruth, and what happened to Lefty O’Doul. Can anyone think of a premier hitting (non-catching) prospect who was left in the minors to work on defense?
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Post by kwodes on Aug 21, 2024 14:31:15 GMT -5
So does anyone have a review of Campbell's defense within the last month or so at SS vs 2B vs OF? Most reviews have him as sub-50 field, but then he moves everywhere and is by all accounts a stellar athlete. Is he a legit SS prospect? Is he legit as an infield prospect at all at 2B? Are his OF solid now or projected to be? The whole projection of him as a player is mystifying. Until you can match a likely MLB starting defensive spot for him, he is just a pile of tools. I have never seen a guy everyone thought could hit like this with no real eye for where he might best fit defensively. Sometimes guys move for opportunity... but I am not sure I have ever heard of a guy this toolsy without a clear preference for where the org thought his defensive home might best be. E.g. for Rafaela, it is CF (even if he can play elsewhere). Mookie moved to OF for opportunity given Pedey. What is this guy's natural position? And is he avg or better at it? I would expect the Sox to be heavily working his defense where they expect his home to be in AFL/offseason. There are definitely occasionally guys who have absolutely amazing bats, which force them to the brink of the majors, but who have not had the time needed to develop defensively. For example Bryce Harper got shifted to the outfield after being drafted. His last baseball America scoring report in December 2011 talked about him needing to learn how to play the outfield, while he has the athleticism to play the outfield, he has never been good at it (interestingly advanced stats liked him as an outfielder as a rookie, but hate him thereafter). Obviously Campbell should not be compared to Bryce Harper, but there have always been guys who hit so well they end up in the majors even if they don’t yet have MLB quality defense. Those guys usually get stuck in the outfield. Historically that’s what the Yankees did with Babe Ruth, and what happened to Lefty O’Doul. Can anyone think of a premier hitting (non-catching) prospect who was left in the minors to work on defense? kris bryant needed to work on defense at the beginning of his rookie year. Magically, those issues were resolved the exact same time the cubs gained an extra year of control.
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Post by GyIantosca on Aug 21, 2024 15:01:21 GMT -5
I can’t imagine these 4 getting promoted sometime next season what an infusion of talent.
I have a feeling Montgomery is going to get promoted. 2levels next season.
The next challenge for this team back fill these kids as best as they can . No big hole in talent .
See this is where they implement trading draft picks would be great. In theory we promote these kids someone becomes expendable . Trade for picks or have the option too.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Aug 21, 2024 15:01:57 GMT -5
On Mookie vs. Campbell, it's very tough to compare generally because (1) as referenced, it's difficult to compare the rise of a high school draftee with the rise of a college draftee, and (2) the minor leagues are now structured very differently. 2024 AA =/= 2014 AA, etc. Not to cop out, but it's apples to oranges. Near the end of his first full season, Betts was struggling in Lowell and was a few months away from the low point at which he was contemplating retirement while calling colleges about their basketball programs.
Now, if we want to cherry-pick a bit, you look at the period from either April 24 or May 5, 2013* to June 28, 2014 for Betts. During that time, Betts rose from Greenville (then Low-A) to MLB and became one of the game's top prospects so briefly it's not really recorded anywhere (in BA's mid-year re-rank, he was in MLB and not eligible but I want to say he'd have been top 10 based on a chat question answer?).
* = Starting the year .151/.270/.226 in 15 games, Betts only got 3 hits in his next 8 but walks 14 times in that span, showing a switch is starting to flip. May 5, after 2 days off, he starts a 19-game hit streak in which he hits .419/.511/.770 with 14 XBH after having just 13 XBH in his first 95 pro games. From there, he's off to the races on a one-year stretch unmatched in this site's history.
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