SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
|
Post by greatscottcooper on Aug 24, 2024 14:02:15 GMT -5
I’m thinking of a number Inbetween 3 and 3 Where Mayer goes to 4 and Teel stays where he is? No. I don’t believe anyone in the top ten is falling, rather Campbell is moving ahead
|
|
|
Post by patford on Aug 24, 2024 14:23:58 GMT -5
Where Mayer goes to 4 and Teel stays where he is? Teel honestly doesn't seem like a potential game changer to me. Feels like Mayer has that ceiling and Campbell does too. I'd rank them Anthony Mayer Campbell Teel in my book. Time will tell but it may turn out Johanfran Garcia is the catcher of the future following Wong in four or five years.
|
|
|
Post by ematz1423 on Aug 24, 2024 14:26:44 GMT -5
Teel honestly doesn't seem like a potential game changer to me. Feels like Mayer has that ceiling and Campbell does too. I'd rank them Anthony Mayer Campbell Teel in my book. Time will tell but it may turn out Johanfran Garcia is the catcher of the future following Wong in four or five years. I'm not trying to crap on Teel I do think he'll be a solid starting C but more along the lines of a steady hand slightly above average. Not a game changer in the lineup like I think all 3 of Mayer anthony and Campbell can be.
|
|
|
Post by dirtywaterinla on Aug 24, 2024 14:44:51 GMT -5
Cora in his pregame said how they’re looking to add a RH bat in the September call ups. I mean, who else would this be other than Campbell? Certainly can’t be Dalbec or Westbrook (I hope not, please god).
|
|
|
Post by adamgregory81 on Aug 24, 2024 15:23:46 GMT -5
I could see ranking Campbell anywhere between 1 and 4 depending on how you weight pedigree/track record, position, age, etc.
I do think age matters quite a bit for hitters, especially once you’ve proven you can hit at AA - so Anthony’s ceiling feels the highest to me (e.g., if he spent 2 more years in Worcester, he’d undoubtedly be putting up video game numbers), and agree with the (much smarter) guys ranking on the site that he’s #1 - but very intelligent people disagree (I think every national outlet has Mayer higher, and generally Mayer is much higher).
I’m more curious where everyone think Campbell will ultimately fall on national lists at the end of the year. We clearly have a bias here, but is it possible that we have 3 of the top 10 prospects in baseball? (And 4 of the top 25?)
I asked earlier in the thread, but let’s update for continued dominance…
Would you trade Campbell for… (1) Coby Mayo? (2) Jason Dominguez? (3) Emmanuel Rodriguez? (4) Max Clark? (5) Jordan Lawlar? (6) Spencer Jones (haha- couldn’t resist)?
My guess is that although he will probably land very close to Teel at the back of the 20s; those of us who have paid close attention all year long would be hesitant to trade him for anything less than top 10 value. He’s been so consistently dominant, despite playing across 3 levels, continually tweaking his approach, and playing all over the field; it’s feeling like he could very much be underrated.
|
|
pd
Veteran
Posts: 324
|
Post by pd on Aug 24, 2024 15:45:35 GMT -5
Mickey Gasper playing 2nd today for the big club. Just sayin'.
|
|
nonothing
Veteran
Posts: 629
Member is Online
|
Post by nonothing on Aug 24, 2024 17:01:04 GMT -5
Teel honestly doesn't seem like a potential game changer to me. Feels like Mayer has that ceiling and Campbell does too. I'd rank them Anthony Mayer Campbell Teel in my book. Time will tell but it may turn out Johanfran Garcia is the catcher of the future following Wong in four or five years. I think Teel could literally hit .300 and play a solid C role for 15 yrs and go to the Hall of Fame. Now if you think Wong will put up the year he has this yr again, then maybe Teel doesn't make a big difference from that. But a C who can throw runners out, block/defend/intelligently call games behind the plate and hit .300 with 15-25 HR power and the ability to swipe 15 bags a yr for half his career is worth a ton compared to most MLB catchers. And Johanfran can hit, but tell me you know for sure he can catch, throw out runnera and call games behind the dish? I would suspect you have no idea when you say that. I don't either re: Garcia btw. But I doubt the FO is counting on an A ball guy who blew out his knee to be the C of the future. I hope he comes back and is great, but that injury was sad if you saw it. Hope he comes back 100% -- but how could you know?
|
|
|
Post by greatscottcooper on Aug 24, 2024 17:41:40 GMT -5
Time will tell but it may turn out Johanfran Garcia is the catcher of the future following Wong in four or five years. I think Teel could literally hit .300 and play a solid C role for 15 yrs and go to the Hall of Fame. Now if you think Wong will put up the year he has this yr again, then maybe Teel doesn't make a big difference from that. But a C who can throw runners out, block/defend/intelligently call games behind the plate and hit .300 with 15-25 HR power and the ability to swipe 15 bags a yr for half his career is worth a ton compared to most MLB catchers. And Johanfran can hit, but tell me you know for sure he can catch, throw out runnera and call games behind the dish? I would suspect you have no idea when you say that. I don't either re: Garcia btw. But I doubt the FO is counting on an A ball guy who blew out his knee to be the C of the future. I hope he comes back and is great, but that injury was sad if you saw it. Hope he comes back 100% -- but how could you know? That’s a 70 hit tool, Teel has an above average but probably not that good hit tool. If Campbell his his best case scenario he’s an up the middle defender who can hit 30 HR and steal 30 bases.
|
|
nonothing
Veteran
Posts: 629
Member is Online
|
Post by nonothing on Aug 24, 2024 19:15:19 GMT -5
I think Teel could literally hit .300 and play a solid C role for 15 yrs and go to the Hall of Fame. Now if you think Wong will put up the year he has this yr again, then maybe Teel doesn't make a big difference from that. But a C who can throw runners out, block/defend/intelligently call games behind the plate and hit .300 with 15-25 HR power and the ability to swipe 15 bags a yr for half his career is worth a ton compared to most MLB catchers. And Johanfran can hit, but tell me you know for sure he can catch, throw out runnera and call games behind the dish? I would suspect you have no idea when you say that. I don't either re: Garcia btw. But I doubt the FO is counting on an A ball guy who blew out his knee to be the C of the future. I hope he comes back and is great, but that injury was sad if you saw it. Hope he comes back 100% -- but how could you know? That’s a 70 hit tool, Teel has an above average but probably not that good hit tool. If Campbell his his best case scenario he’s an up the middle defender who can hit 30 HR and steal 30 bases. I was more commenting on the concept of Johanfran Garcia being likely to pass Teel. It's not impossible, but it is not what probability would dictate as likely at this point. In terms of 70 hit tool -- do you think Jarren Duran has a 70 hit tool? I am describing in Teel a guy who hits like Duran, but without the speed to swipe nearly as many bases or to turn as many hits into a base more than everyone else would. In terms of Campbell -- I am very positive (favorable toward, not positive as in certain) about his offensive capabilities. When you describe him as an up the middle player... what I find fascinating is not one person on here has been able to write that they feel confident that Campbell is a true CF, SS or even 2B. I would love for him to be a true SS. That would be awesome. But if he is a Valdez in the field, it's an issue. So just before I can understand the anointing ahead of any of our top 4 (Montgomery included -- though passing him is easier given he has played zero professional games), I would love to hear/see somebody talk substantially about his defensive capabilities. But to be clear, I would prefer Campbell is our future SS and we could trade Mayer for pitching. In real life though, I have not seen enough clips of his defense to know what he is other than a guy where the writeups don't really focus on his D, but also don't paint a positive picture of it. I strongly suspect a guy with his athleticism can play defense somewhere well, but when people are like maybe he is our Ben Zobrist... that's of value no doubt, but not top 30 prospect in all of baseball value. A top 30 prospect in all of baseball has a defensive starting position. But I do think he maybe should be ranked ahead of everyone other than Anthony. I just want to read about or see defense indicating he can definitely field a starting role somewhere to get there.
|
|
pd
Veteran
Posts: 324
|
Post by pd on Aug 24, 2024 19:28:50 GMT -5
Mickey Gasper playing 2nd today for the big club. Just sayin'. Ofer with 3Ks for today's 2nd baseman.
|
|
nonothing
Veteran
Posts: 629
Member is Online
|
Post by nonothing on Aug 24, 2024 19:59:14 GMT -5
Mickey Gasper playing 2nd today for the big club. Just sayin'. Ofer with 3Ks for today's 2nd baseman. So bummed for him. You can see he feels defeated. Wanted a hit for him so bad today.
|
|
|
Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Aug 24, 2024 23:15:41 GMT -5
I think Teel could literally hit .300 and play a solid C role for 15 yrs and go to the Hall of Fame. Now if you think Wong will put up the year he has this yr again, then maybe Teel doesn't make a big difference from that. But a C who can throw runners out, block/defend/intelligently call games behind the plate and hit .300 with 15-25 HR power and the ability to swipe 15 bags a yr for half his career is worth a ton compared to most MLB catchers. And Johanfran can hit, but tell me you know for sure he can catch, throw out runnera and call games behind the dish? I would suspect you have no idea when you say that. I don't either re: Garcia btw. But I doubt the FO is counting on an A ball guy who blew out his knee to be the C of the future. I hope he comes back and is great, but that injury was sad if you saw it. Hope he comes back 100% -- but how could you know? That’s a 70 hit tool, Teel has an above average but probably not that good hit tool. If Campbell his his best case scenario he’s an up the middle defender who can hit 30 HR and steal 30 bases. The problem here is that you’re assuming the best case (and likely extremely unrealistic case) to Campbell and not to Teel. A 90th percentile outcome for Teel is still probably better than 90th percentile for Campbell because Teel is catching and Campbell is likely at second, whether that’s because of his own limitations or other better defensive options around him.
|
|
|
Post by greatscottcooper on Aug 25, 2024 2:58:57 GMT -5
That’s a 70 hit tool, Teel has an above average but probably not that good hit tool. If Campbell his his best case scenario he’s an up the middle defender who can hit 30 HR and steal 30 bases. The problem here is that you’re assuming the best case (and likely extremely unrealistic case) to Campbell and not to Teel. A 90th percentile outcome for Teel is still probably better than 90th percentile for Campbell because Teel is catching and Campbell is likely at second, whether that’s because of his own limitations or other better defensive options around him. That’s an exactly my point, I feel you’re assuming best case scenario for Teel. I don’t know if Teel has an impact bat, good for C but if he was playing another position I’m not sure how great the bat would really be. Also, he has below average pop times this year, not too bad, but if that number trends down as he ages or grows that’s a big problem. Controlling the run game is more important today and if Teel slows down behind the plate that’s an issue. Look I like Teel, but it’s not as if he doesn’t have any warts. I like Cambell better, and I don’t think I’m alone there at all.
|
|
nonothing
Veteran
Posts: 629
Member is Online
|
Post by nonothing on Aug 25, 2024 3:17:18 GMT -5
The problem here is that you’re assuming the best case (and likely extremely unrealistic case) to Campbell and not to Teel. A 90th percentile outcome for Teel is still probably better than 90th percentile for Campbell because Teel is catching and Campbell is likely at second, whether that’s because of his own limitations or other better defensive options around him. That’s an exactly my point, I feel you’re assuming best case scenario for Teel. I don’t know if Teel has an impact bat, good for C but if he was playing another position I’m not sure how great the bat would really be. Also, he has below average pop times this year, not too bad, but if that number trends down as he ages or grows that’s a big problem. Controlling the run game is more important today and if Teel slows down behind the plate that’s an issue. Look I like Teel, but it’s not as if he doesn’t have any warts. I like Cambell better, and I don’t think I’m alone there at all. Where are you seeing the below avg pop times re: Teel? With respect to what you are saying, the reality is that Teel is a catcher. So he should be compared to catchers. The position is not just one of tools, but also of relationship building, game calling and baseball IQ. The intangibles for Teel appear to be incredibly strong for Teel, and they matter most at his position. Now Campbell also appears to have great intangibles, but no matter where he plays, he isn't calling pitches. So, he can't have a Varitek-like impact. I am offering that I think Teel could have a Varitek-like impact on the franchise. Varitek isn't a MLB-level HOF player (though he is a Red Sox HOF member), but I think many could agree his career was as impactful for the Sox (and not totally measured by WAR) as Xander Bogaerts career would have been, even had it extended for the duration of what will be Xander Bogaerts career. If Campbell (or Mayer for that matter) turns into a Bogaerts-like player, that would be enormous. Could Campbell turn out even better and be more like Betts than Bogaerts? He might. That's why I think Campbell is so interesting. The ceiling on Mayer is probably in the Bogaerts range (which is fantastic to be clear). The ceiling on Campbell *might* be closer to Betts. But nobody could yet call any of these outcomes particularly likely. Where I think Teel is more predictable is that if he has the baseball IQ and relationship building aspect of the C position that he sounds to have... well, that is more likely to translate to MLB than any hitting stats. And at C, which is where Teel is expected to play, those matter more than anything else, which is why guys can hit lifetime .200-230 and survive many yrs at the big league level as catchers. And you are not alone on this site in liking a prospect with great offensive potential without knowing the guy's defensive capabilities. Most people overweight offensive profile, including how Cespedes jumped up in the rankings before Arias, when Arias was always the more likely valuable prospect due to his being an actual MLB starting caliber defensive prospect (even according to his SP profile page -- and the chance that Cespedes stays at SS is minimal). You like offense. I like offense. But defense makes pitchers better. It was also a more reasonable outcome that Campbell would be a better prospect than he was originally ranked based on his size, athleticism, likely defensive capability and hitting profile within the ACC. Nobody could have projected what Campbell has done, but it was always improbable that Zanetello was a better prospect than Campbell when Zanetello was basically a combine performance pick vs Campbell a guy near the top of a major conference in hitting in college with outstanding athletic attributes. Maybe Zanetello pans out btw (and maybe his ceiling appeared higher then -- maybe), but the likelihood of these toolsy HS picks being better than established college players given today's college game is not high, except for the very few top HS guys. The rest are a total crap shoot, and the reason they sign is that their probability of staying top of the pack once they go to college is actually low, and they know it. So no, you are not the only one higher on Campbell than Teel. But unless anyone knows where Campbell is capable of playing defensively, I believe it is hard to justify currently -- even if I am very much hoping you are correct that he hits 30+ HR while having the ability to play up the middle (even if for us he slots to an OF corner vs 2B, because if he has CF capability, I would take that anywhere in the OF and value it for the value it brings in run prevention).
|
|
|
Post by rkarp on Aug 25, 2024 5:27:58 GMT -5
honestly, I am not trading Teel or Campbell for anyone at this point. Both are starting for the RS at some point next season. Teel in a platoon position with Wong and Campbell at 2B
|
|
|
Post by bojacksoxfan on Aug 25, 2024 6:34:25 GMT -5
That’s an exactly my point, I feel you’re assuming best case scenario for Teel. I don’t know if Teel has an impact bat, good for C but if he was playing another position I’m not sure how great the bat would really be. Also, he has below average pop times this year, not too bad, but if that number trends down as he ages or grows that’s a big problem. Controlling the run game is more important today and if Teel slows down behind the plate that’s an issue. Look I like Teel, but it’s not as if he doesn’t have any warts. I like Cambell better, and I don’t think I’m alone there at all. Where are you seeing the below avg pop times re: Teel? With respect to what you are saying, the reality is that Teel is a catcher. So he should be compared to catchers. The position is not just one of tools, but also of relationship building, game calling and baseball IQ. The intangibles for Teel appear to be incredibly strong for Teel, and they matter most at his position. Where I think Teel is more predictable is that if he has the baseball IQ and relationship building aspect of the C position that he sounds to have... well, that is more likely to translate to MLB than any hitting stats. And at C, which is where Teel is expected to play, those matter more than anything else, which is why guys can hit lifetime .200-230 and survive many yrs at the big league level as catchers. One of the reasons that Teel has been consistently overrated on this site is that people have given him credit for being a much better defender than he is. I've always assumed it's because of his general athleticism (just like Wong!) and those early Twitter videos if him throwing out base stealers that went around last year. I'm not sure if his pop times are publicly available, but he is actually pretty bad throwing out base runners. In his minor league career he's only thrown out 22% and that's on high volume. This year he's allowed 80 SBs in just 62 games at catcher. Eight errors and 6 passed balls aren't very good either.
|
|
cdj
Veteran
Posts: 15,646
Member is Online
|
Post by cdj on Aug 25, 2024 6:35:59 GMT -5
“Constantly overrated on this site”
If he’s overrated on this site he’s overrated on every site. He’s a consensus top 50 guy lmao
Now *you* might find him to be overrated and heck you could end up being right, but that’s a “you” thing. You’d be in the minority, not this site
|
|
|
Post by bojacksoxfan on Aug 25, 2024 7:00:51 GMT -5
Fair enough. I mostly meant in relation to Mayer and Anthony who have much more impact potential, but it is true that many of the most positive opinions about Teel are supported by very positive opinions about his defense that aren’t supported by publicly available data. You don’t have to make up things about those two to think they will be stars.
The big three has always been a Big Two and Teel.
|
|
|
Post by bojacksoxfan on Aug 25, 2024 7:01:54 GMT -5
And if you’re going to quote me, please actually quote me. There’s a big difference imo between constantly and consistently.
|
|
|
Post by fenwaydouble on Aug 25, 2024 7:04:20 GMT -5
“Constantly overrated on this site” If he’s overrated on this site he’s overrated on every site. He’s a consensus top 50 guy lmao Now *you* might find him to be overrated and heck you could end up being right, but that’s a “you” thing. You’d be in the minority, not this site I dunno, I feel like you can hear Chris and Ian on the pod inch toward saying Teel is overrated - they’ve spent a fair amount of time recently warning listeners that his ceiling is lower and that he’s only in the top group because he’s a catcher. And yes, you can’t discount that he’s a catcher and that bumps his floor up significantly. But in a lot of ways, it also compresses top-end value. Go check out the Fangraphs leaderboards, and you’ll see that very few catchers manage to break 3 WAR in a given season. Defensive questions or no, I feel pretty good about Campbell clearing that hurdle at this point.
|
|
cdj
Veteran
Posts: 15,646
Member is Online
|
Post by cdj on Aug 25, 2024 7:06:47 GMT -5
And if you’re going to quote me, please actually quote me. There’s a big difference imo between constantly and consistently. I’m not convinced you didn’t edit it but if you didn’t then fair, my apologies. Early morning mistake. Though in fairness to me it doesn’t really change the point at all. He’s a top 50 guy across the sport pretty much everywhere, and he’s always been less regarded than Anthony or Mayer over the last year and a half
|
|
cdj
Veteran
Posts: 15,646
Member is Online
|
Post by cdj on Aug 25, 2024 7:09:34 GMT -5
“Constantly overrated on this site” If he’s overrated on this site he’s overrated on every site. He’s a consensus top 50 guy lmao Now *you* might find him to be overrated and heck you could end up being right, but that’s a “you” thing. You’d be in the minority, not this site I dunno, I feel like you can hear Chris and Ian on the pod inch toward saying Teel is overrated - they’ve spent a fair amount of time recently warning listeners that his ceiling is lower and that he’s only in the top group because he’s a catcher. And yes, you can’t discount that he’s a catcher and that bumps his floor up significantly. But in a lot of ways, it also compresses top-end value. Go check out the Fangraphs leaderboards, and you’ll see that very few catchers manage to break 3 WAR in a given season. Defensive questions or no, I feel pretty good about Campbell clearing that hurdle at this point. Oh I’d consider ranking Campbell above him, he’s been the best hitter in minor league baseball this year and can play up the middle. Can’t just ignore that. I’m just pushing back on the notion that this site is consistently too high on Teel when this is a consensus opinion across the board that he’s a top 50 guy Although this is the Campbell thread so I apologize for the detour
|
|
|
Post by crossedsabres8 on Aug 25, 2024 7:46:28 GMT -5
The Teel discourse here is crazy. His numbers in Portland this year were very similar to Mayer's. 22% K rate 12% walk rate, .163 ISO and an .852 OPS. He's a year older than Mayer but he also just got drafted last year and is moving through the system remarkably fast for a catcher.
Defensively he came in with pedigree and has improved significantly at every level he's been at, starting at college. He apparently has improved in Portland as the year went on. I also wouldn't really be looking at catcher stats too closely in the minors, just look at Austin Wells.
There is a cap on catcher value just because of how demanding of a position it is and how many games you can reasonably play. But I don't really understand the fading on Teel when he's been doing everything you could possibly want so far.
|
|
|
Post by dcb26 on Aug 25, 2024 8:37:44 GMT -5
I see Teel as more likely to be a 2.5 - 3 WAR player than Campbell...but I think Campbell has a better chance to be a 5+ WAR player than Teel.
That leads me to currently see Campbell as slightly above Teel, but I certainly don't think it's wrong to think otherwise. Very excited to have them both in the system and close to the majors.
RE: Campbell, you just don't see seasons like he's had very often. I'm likely overrating it due to the superficial similarity to Mookie's breakout year, and he's only recently passed Teel in my mind, but it's pretty hard not to be excited.
|
|
|
Post by fenwaydouble on Aug 25, 2024 9:50:22 GMT -5
The Teel discourse here is crazy. His numbers in Portland this year were very similar to Mayer's. 22% K rate 12% walk rate, .163 ISO and an .852 OPS. He's a year older than Mayer but he also just got drafted last year and is moving through the system remarkably fast for a catcher. Defensively he came in with pedigree and has improved significantly at every level he's been at, starting at college. He apparently has improved in Portland as the year went on. I also wouldn't really be looking at catcher stats too closely in the minors, just look at Austin Wells. There is a cap on catcher value just because of how demanding of a position it is and how many games you can reasonably play. But I don't really understand the fading on Teel when he's been doing everything you could possibly want so far. Teel is good. But he’s not doing everything I could possibly want…ideally he would be hitting like Kristian Campbell!
|
|
|