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Post by adamgregory81 on Jun 20, 2024 23:54:54 GMT -5
I think the discussion of Campbell's K% is a common statistical confusion of looking at the wrong parameter. To evaluate this in a more comprehensive context you need to look at aggregates as well as percentages. The difference in Campbell's K performance over the time he's been in Portland thus far relative to what it was in Greenville amounts to about 5 avoided K's. Seems to me that could easily be explained by AA not having a "book" on him yet. That could be right, but it could also be marginal improvement and/or an extended hot streak and/or he’s better as the system progresses? (And/or a million other things.) Given this is his first full year, the sample as a whole is not that telling; and that’s exciting, I think. He’s not Mookie (because of the K’s, Campbell is much bigger, and no one is Mookie); but the thing about Mookie coming up that was so exciting was that he ascended so quickly, rankings couldn’t keep. I remember him being unranked, and then had a great year in A/A+ and was maybe ranked a few places at the very back of the top 100 (but 5-6 other Sox guys ahead of him); and then he just crushed AA and AAA and was in the majors by mid season (before updates had come out), but I feel like Law might have said he would have been top 5 had he not been called up (I could be dreaming). So I’m routine for that type of meteoric rise. And although the statistics don’t suggest it’s coming, neither do they suggest that it’s not coming .
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Post by keninten on Jun 21, 2024 0:36:52 GMT -5
Some guys thrive in pressure. When I played ball the more I was told I couldn`t do something the better I did it. I`m still that way in other aspects of my life. Off the top of my head Tony C, Griffey Jr. and Robin Yount are 3 players who debut around 20. Should they not have been pushed? The coaching staff should know about a kids makeup. That`s really one thing we don`t know sitting in the bleachers. Well you could see it in Pedey. It`s a good discussion and most of the time you do let them develop methodically. You have to be able to spot the guys who have to succeed with the talent they have. Teel is the guy I really hope has that attitude. I like leaders at the catcher position. Like Fisk and Varitek.
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Post by geostorm on Jun 25, 2024 12:58:59 GMT -5
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Post by bojacksoxfan on Jun 25, 2024 16:18:42 GMT -5
This is the kind of scout-y pushback Campbell is going to face in terms of making prospect lists. From the BA Hot Sheet chat:
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Post by benogliviesbrother on Jun 25, 2024 16:28:13 GMT -5
Minor Details: Are the Red Sox’ Big Three now a Big Four? Roman Anthony and members of the Sea Dogs have started calling Kristian Campbell "Barry Bonds." "The video looks like it's in fast motion, like it's sped up when he swings." bostonglobe.com/2024/06/25/sports/red-sox-minor-leagues-kristian-campbell-portland/?event=event25 via @bostonglobe Some see second baseman/center fielder Kristian Campbell, a 2023 fourth-round selection out of Georgia Tech, as an elite prospect who belongs in the conversation. Campbell’s performance in a transformational year has been little short of staggering. Between High A Greenville and Double A Portland, he’s hitting .344 (fifth among minor leaguers with 200 plate appearances) with a .451 on-base percentage (sixth) and .599 slugging percentage (eighth). He does an excellent job of spitting on pitches out of the strike zone, swinging at strikes, and hitting the snot out of the ball. Notably, his performance has improved since his promotion this month. Last week, Campbell went 8 for 14 with six walks and three strikeouts, pushing his Double A line after 17 games to .431/.526/.692. “We call him Barry Bonds. What he’s done here so far, we’re just like, it’s Barry Bonds. The video looks like it’s in fast motion, like it’s sped up with how hard he swings and with how hard he hits the ball.” Appreciate the link but if you're going to quote Alex's column, you ought to show that by putting that content in quotes or the QUOTE box. Otherwise it's plagiarism.
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Post by lennsakata on Jun 25, 2024 20:17:48 GMT -5
This is the kind of scout-y pushback Campbell is going to face in terms of making prospect lists. From the BA Hot Sheet chat: Well, he seemed to make some adjustments this season that are working out pretty well.
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Post by James Dunne on Jun 26, 2024 8:33:21 GMT -5
I say this as someone who really likes Kristian Campbell... I definitely do not watch his swing and think of Barry Bonds. In fact, one of the most distinctive things about both players is polar opposite. When Barry Bonds took a pitch (didn't swing) it was the most quiet and confident I've ever seen. His pitch recognition was so immediate it was like he know when the ball was still in the pitcher's hand exactly where it was going. His body just didn't move, I can't recall him ever checking his swing in the 20 years I watched him. Campbell's is the opposite - the only player who put more of his body into taking a pitch I can think of was Kevin Youkilis. Campbell, like Youkilis, seems to set his body exactly the same and then decide at the very last second (usually correctly) whether or not to swing.
Also, and I don't want to get too into the scouting terminology here because I can get the lingo twisted sometimes, but I would not qualify Bonds' swing as inside-out.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Jun 26, 2024 8:40:53 GMT -5
Yeah I look at Campbell’s swing and I think Hunter Pence… or Shawn Marion.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 26, 2024 8:44:12 GMT -5
Yeah, he's definitely the type of player that isn't going to get full buy-in until he does it in MLB. We were discussing just that yesterday. If you just watch him a little it's not hard to see why. At some point you shrug and say that it's working so far, but I don't think he's a guy that's ever going to be a top 50 type unless we're talking months of stupid production in the high minors.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 26, 2024 8:44:30 GMT -5
Yeah I look at Campbell’s swing and I think Hunter Pence… or Shawn Marion. I loled. Well played.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Jun 26, 2024 9:21:29 GMT -5
Yeah I look at Campbell’s swing and I think Hunter Pence… or Shawn Marion. I loled. Well played. Lol I used to tell my brother he shot like Marion which, of course, are fighting words in basketball. I was looking at Campbell’s swing more and I actually think I have a slightly better comp now. Aaron Rowand, whose hands and flat bat path really stood out watching him. Totally agree that he’s the type you basically watch wondering if/when the production will stop. But no point in fixing it until then, even if his prospect status lags behind his triple slash.
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Post by ephus on Jun 26, 2024 9:57:47 GMT -5
I say this as someone who really likes Kristian Campbell... I definitely do not watch his swing and think of Barry Bonds. In fact, one of the most distinctive things about both players is polar opposite. When Barry Bonds took a pitch (didn't swing) it was the most quiet and confident I've ever seen. His pitch recognition was so immediate it was like he know when the ball was still in the pitcher's hand exactly where it was going. His body just didn't move, I can't recall him ever checking his swing in the 20 years I watched him. Campbell's is the opposite - the only player who put more of his body into taking a pitch I can think of was Kevin Youkilis. Campbell, like Youkilis, seems to set his body exactly the same and then decide at the very last second (usually correctly) whether or not to swing. Also, and I don't want to get too into the scouting terminology here because I can get the lingo twisted sometimes, but I would not qualify Bonds' swing as inside-out. Interesting point on Campbell's activity at the plate. Here he is in high school: Some movement, but actually pretty settled, classic up-down stance, and quick pitch recognition (as would be expected): Here he is at Georgia Tech: Much more active in his stance, almost like loading a spring; also more leaned back, and slight slide of the front foot for timing: Here he is in Portland: You can almost call this swing "violent," just watch his helmet. Still the spring-loading from Tech, but with even more movement and a full toe tap that wasn't in the other clips: I wonder how much of this evolution is tied to wanting to hit for more power. When he was drafted, his advanced pitch selection was noted. But he has been asked to hit for more pop. I agree that success with this much movement in a swing would be rare and wonder if we won't see it settle down a bit as he adjusts to the level. All the more reason for an extended stay in Portland.
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Post by pappyman99 on Jun 26, 2024 17:19:04 GMT -5
I mean in a way he reminds me of Devers with how off he can look hitting an home run sometimes
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Post by templeusox on Jun 29, 2024 5:44:56 GMT -5
Yeah I look at Campbell’s swing and I think Hunter Pence… or Shawn Marion. His swing is closer to Andrew McCutchen's then it is to Hunter Pence's. At least in the way it works. As far as the anonymous scouts' deep thoughts... they're not worth the e-ink they're written with.
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Post by vermontsox1 on Jul 3, 2024 13:11:12 GMT -5
Campbell named Eastern League Player of the Month for June.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 3, 2024 14:12:06 GMT -5
I mean in a way he reminds me of Devers with how off he can look hitting an home run sometimes Devers has a very loud swing as well, but I don't know that he ever looks as off-balance as Campbell regularly does.
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Post by pappyman99 on Jul 4, 2024 8:13:58 GMT -5
I mean in a way he reminds me of Devers with how off he can look hitting an home run sometimes Devers has a very loud swing as well, but I don't know that he ever looks as off-balance as Campbell regularly does. Oh yeah I mean I think the similarities stop at they both hit some awkward home runs
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Post by vermontsox1 on Jul 8, 2024 9:39:32 GMT -5
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Post by scottysmalls on Jul 8, 2024 9:50:48 GMT -5
The only hitter with a higher wRC+ than Campbell in full season ball including MLB is Aaron Judge
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Post by incandenza on Jul 8, 2024 10:20:50 GMT -5
He's had a wRC+ of less than 200 in 11 of 26 individual games in AA; less than 100 in just 6. That's bananas.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 8, 2024 11:42:31 GMT -5
I remember the concept of looking at Sox prospects in tiers.
So Mayer, Anthony, Teel
Then Campbell, Cespedes, Bleis, Perales
But, man, Campbell is making me want to stick him in that first tier with Mayer, Anthony, and Teel.
I do get the mechanical swing concerns which may indeed prove accurate and let the air out of his production in the majors.
But at this point, while I think Breslow will choose the lane of buying, it'll be measured buying, refraining from trading Tier 1 talent.
At this point I'd hope Campbell gets lumped in as Tier 1 and is considered a building block keeper.
That's the guy I'm most concerned about them losing in a trade for a starting pitcher as I dont think Anthony, Mayer, or Teel are going anywhere other than Worcester, where Campbell should be headed in the not so distant future.
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mobaz
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Post by mobaz on Jul 8, 2024 11:46:31 GMT -5
I remember the concept of looking at Sox prospects in tiers. So Mayer, Anthony, Teel Then Campbell, Cespedes, Bleis, Perales But, man, Campbell is making me want to stick him in that first tier with Mayer, Anthony, and Teel. I do get the mechanical swing concerns which may indeed prove accurate and let the air out of his production in the majors. But at this point, while I think Breslow will choose the lane of buying, it'll be measured buying, refraining from trading Tier 1 talent. At this point I'd hope Campbell gets lumped in as Tier 1 and is considered a building block keeper. That's the guy I'm most concerned about them losing in a trade for a starting pitcher as I dont think Anthony, Mayer, or Teel are going anywhere other than Worcester, where Campbell should be headed in the not so distant future. What if Campbell is who people want Christian Moore to be? I don't think it changes the draft strategy, but might it just a little?
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 8, 2024 11:50:06 GMT -5
I remember the concept of looking at Sox prospects in tiers. So Mayer, Anthony, Teel Then Campbell, Cespedes, Bleis, Perales But, man, Campbell is making me want to stick him in that first tier with Mayer, Anthony, and Teel. I do get the mechanical swing concerns which may indeed prove accurate and let the air out of his production in the majors. But at this point, while I think Breslow will choose the lane of buying, it'll be measured buying, refraining from trading Tier 1 talent. At this point I'd hope Campbell gets lumped in as Tier 1 and is considered a building block keeper. That's the guy I'm most concerned about them losing in a trade for a starting pitcher as I dont think Anthony, Mayer, or Teel are going anywhere other than Worcester, where Campbell should be headed in the not so distant future. What if Campbell is who people want Christian Moore to be? I don't think it changes the draft strategy, but might it just a little? Not that the Sox are lacking for outfielders but Campbell also has the flexibility to play OF as well as being a 2b. I don't know much about Moore. Is he limited to 2b? Not that being a 2b with 30 HR potential is a bad thing. Like you said, BPA in the draft. Everything gets sorted out in due time.
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Post by wanderingdude on Jul 8, 2024 11:54:28 GMT -5
Campbell’s defense would keep me out of the tier personally. Mayer and Anthony have a shot to stick up the middle, mayer more so based on recent reporting, but at a minimum should be very good at the corners. Teel should stick at catcher and at least be average if not better. I have no idea where Campbell will play or what he projects grade wise. I’m hoping we get more reports on his defense in the future.
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Post by James Dunne on Jul 8, 2024 11:56:40 GMT -5
I remember the concept of looking at Sox prospects in tiers. So Mayer, Anthony, Teel Then Campbell, Cespedes, Bleis, Perales But, man, Campbell is making me want to stick him in that first tier with Mayer, Anthony, and Teel. I do get the mechanical swing concerns which may indeed prove accurate and let the air out of his production in the majors. But at this point, while I think Breslow will choose the lane of buying, it'll be measured buying, refraining from trading Tier 1 talent. At this point I'd hope Campbell gets lumped in as Tier 1 and is considered a building block keeper. That's the guy I'm most concerned about them losing in a trade for a starting pitcher as I dont think Anthony, Mayer, or Teel are going anywhere other than Worcester, where Campbell should be headed in the not so distant future. What if Campbell is who people want Christian Moore to be? I don't think it changes the draft strategy, but might it just a little? The obvious counter... what if Christian Moore is who people want Campbell to be?
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