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Post by ephus on Jun 15, 2024 12:43:28 GMT -5
Mods: A Top 10 Prospect Deserves a Better Threat Title
How about:
Option 1: Don’t call me “Mookie,” the Kristian “Teddy” Campbell Thread
Option 2: Kinky Swinger the Kristian Campbell Thread
Option 3: Mr. Helium, the Kristian Campbell Thread
Option 4: X Gave Him To Us, Kristian Campbell
Thanks for your consideration!
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pd
Veteran
Posts: 327 
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Post by pd on Jun 15, 2024 15:01:06 GMT -5
Mods: A Top 10 Prospect Deserves a Better Threat Title How about: Option 1: Don’t call me “Mookie,” the Kristian “Teddy” Campbell Thread Option 2: Kinky Swinger the Kristian Campbell Thread Option 3: Mr. Helium, the Kristian Campbell Thread Option 4: X Gave Him To Us, Kristian Campbell Thanks for your consideration! Excellent work. I'll vote for Option 2, but #1 is also very good, just a little long. |
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Post by adamgregory81 on Jun 15, 2024 16:30:09 GMT -5
Because “the [ ] swingers” sounds like a sick ska band, I’ll vote for:
Teddy Campbell and the Kinky Swingers
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Post by adamgregory81 on Jun 17, 2024 8:43:33 GMT -5
We have crossed he 50 AB threshold in AA - k% is at 17.5%, he’s still demolishing pitches.
Can we safely assume that Campbell is the greatest Red Sox prospect since [_____], or is it still to early to tell?
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Post by rickasadoorian on Jun 17, 2024 9:07:10 GMT -5
We have crossed he 50 AB threshold in AA - k% is at 17.5%, he’s still demolishing pitches. Can we safely assume that Campbell is the greatest Red Sox prospect since [_____], or is it still to early to tell? Why do this? Do you really think he's going to strike out less at the AA level than A ball? His strike out rate is 24.7% for the year, that's probably far more indictive of his skill level than the 56 PA in Portland. I know they say K rate starts to stabilize at 50 PA, but that's not true when the first 50 PA coincides with an absolute heater. If for some reason, the change is actually real and not SSS noise.. that would be some insane in season improvement. |
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Post by ephus on Jun 17, 2024 11:44:28 GMT -5
We have crossed he 50 AB threshold in AA - k% is at 17.5%, he’s still demolishing pitches. Can we safely assume that Campbell is the greatest Red Sox prospect since [_____], or is it still to early to tell? Why do this? Do you really think he's going to strike out less at the AA level than A ball? His strike out rate is 24.7% for the year, that's probably far more indictive of his skill level than the 56 PA in Portland. I know they say K rate starts to stabilize at 50 PA, but that's not true when the first 50 PA coincides with an absolute heater. If for some reason, the change is actually real and not SSS noise.. that would be some insane in season improvement. Counterpoint: A 50 PA "heater" shows underlying ability. And yes, he very well may strike out less in AA. In fact, it is not unheard of for players to show better picth recognition at Portland than they did in Greenville. Consider: Player K% differential between Greenville and Portland Casas -4.4% Anthony -6.7% Yorke -2.7% All three of the above players had a K% above 23% at Greeville, with Anthony checking in at 30.6% and all did (or are doing) considerably better in AA. Blaze Jordan has dropped his K% 5.2% since moving to Portland. Right now Campbell is sitting at a likely unsustainable -9% from his 26.5% K% in Greenville. In fact, his BB% is actually down in AA, which would be more worrying if he was't putting up a .456 OBP and absurd .462 BABIP. That said, it would not be at all crazy for him to drop is K% between 3-7% given the examples above and I am excited to see what his next 50 PA bring. |
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Post by adamgregory81 on Jun 17, 2024 12:02:48 GMT -5
We have crossed he 50 AB threshold in AA - k% is at 17.5%, he’s still demolishing pitches. Can we safely assume that Campbell is the greatest Red Sox prospect since [_____], or is it still to early to tell? Why do this? Do you really think he's going to strike out less at the AA level than A ball? His strike out rate is 24.7% for the year, that's probably far more indictive of his skill level than the 56 PA in Portland. I know they say K rate starts to stabilize at 50 PA, but that's not true when the first 50 PA coincides with an absolute heater. If for some reason, the change is actually real and not SSS noise.. that would be some insane in season improvement. To answer your question directly - I love helium, it’s very exciting (especially on Monday morning); and someone had mentioned waiting for 50 AA at bats. And yes, I hope (I don’t expect anything) he strikes out slightly less as he makes his way up the system (whether because of experience/maturity, getting used to a new swing path, or something else). Was it really such a ridiculous post? For a lot of reasons, this feels like a guy worth being excited about (and it’s an exciting year across the system); but by no means was I intending to be so outlandish as to upset other, more thoughtful and reserved prospectors. Apologies for ruining your Monday morning with my excitement. |
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Post by vermontsox1 on Jun 17, 2024 12:55:32 GMT -5
Campbell named Eastern League player of the week for June 10-16.
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asm18
Veteran
Posts: 2,870
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Post by asm18 on Jun 17, 2024 13:01:50 GMT -5
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jun 17, 2024 13:03:59 GMT -5
If the person who has predicted Anthony and Campbell's ascent is an evaluator, then give them a promotion and a raise because they're clearly excellent at the job. If they're just regurgitating stuff that they've gotten from other folks around the organization, give them a promotion and a raise because they give us exciting info. |
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Post by rickasadoorian on Jun 17, 2024 15:21:01 GMT -5
Why do this? Do you really think he's going to strike out less at the AA level than A ball? His strike out rate is 24.7% for the year, that's probably far more indictive of his skill level than the 56 PA in Portland. I know they say K rate starts to stabilize at 50 PA, but that's not true when the first 50 PA coincides with an absolute heater. If for some reason, the change is actually real and not SSS noise.. that would be some insane in season improvement. Counterpoint: A 50 PA "heater" shows underlying ability. And yes, he very well may strike out less in AA. In fact, it is not unheard of for players to show better picth recognition at Portland than they did in Greenville. Consider: Player K% differential between Greenville and Portland Casas -4.4% Anthony -6.7% Yorke -2.7% All three of the above players had a K% above 23% at Greeville, with Anthony checking in at 30.6% and all did (or are doing) considerably better in AA. Blaze Jordan has dropped his K% 5.2% since moving to Portland. Right now Campbell is sitting at a likely unsustainable -9% from his 26.5% K% in Greenville. In fact, his BB% is actually down in AA, which would be more worrying if he was't putting up a .456 OBP and absurd .462 BABIP. That said, it would not be at all crazy for him to drop is K% between 3-7% given the examples above and I am excited to see what his next 50 PA bring. Right, but Anthony had an offseason and Jordan spent a good chunk of time in AA last year. Campbell just went from A+ to AA and somehow cut his K% by 9%. That doesn't happen often, at least if the sample size is decent. If he made that type of adjustment in season, that's remarkable. Blaze went from 14.6% to 13.8% from A+ to AA last year. So, he basically struck out the same amount. This year, he's been better but he had the offseason to work on things. I guess I should have been more specific. I would not be surprised at all to see Campbells K% drop next year in AA or even AAA. I would be very surprised to see such a huge shift happen overnight. It's not like he was striking out less in A+ as the season progressed. Some fun with small sample sizes: Campbells first 32 PA in AA, he struck out twice. In the 25 since, he has struck out 8 times. That includes 5 in the last 10. Unless you think the 2ks in 32 PA represents some underlying ability, it's heavily skewing a 57 PA sample size. Just like 5k in the last 10 is heavily skewing the last 25 PA. None of this should make people any less excited for Campbell. We should be very excited. |
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Post by ephus on Jun 17, 2024 16:50:17 GMT -5
I think we are talking past each other.
But for the record, I considered all time at a level, so if it was over multiple seasons, that is baked in (Blaze Jordan).
Now, the main point. On which, I think we agree. A 9% drop in K% is unsustainable. A more modest improvement is possible. The kid is an exciting prospect and adds another athelete to the mix. Let's go.
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Post by ancientsoxfogey on Jun 17, 2024 18:08:58 GMT -5
We have crossed he 50 AB threshold in AA - k% is at 17.5%, he’s still demolishing pitches. Can we safely assume that Campbell is the greatest Red Sox prospect since [_____], or is it still to early to tell? Way, way, way too early to tell. The Sox have had prospects in the past who have come up to AA and started like a house afire, but reality caught up to them later on. Let's not write history before a decent amount of it occurs. 50 AB isn't enough for a league to get a book on anyone. Or to look at it another way: Where do you think Campbell will be at the end of this minor league season? My bet is, he will finish the season in Portland - he's not getting promoted again in 2024. So we have two more months and a couple hundred more AB to get a much more complete picture of what's going on. |
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Post by rickasadoorian on Jun 19, 2024 16:11:11 GMT -5
We have crossed he 50 AB threshold in AA - k% is at 17.5%, he’s still demolishing pitches. Can we safely assume that Campbell is the greatest Red Sox prospect since [_____], or is it still to early to tell? Way, way, way too early to tell. The Sox have had prospects in the past who have come up to AA and started like a house afire, but reality caught up to them later on. Let's not write history before a decent amount of it occurs. 50 AB isn't enough for a league to get a book on anyone. Or to look at it another way: Where do you think Campbell will be at the end of this minor league season? My bet is, he will finish the season in Portland - he's not getting promoted again in 2024. So we have two more months and a couple hundred more AB to get a much more complete picture of what's going on. I would bet he finishes in Portland too but if he continues to rake and is sporting a 1.000+ OPS after 200 PA, he's going to be in AAA. There is a path for him to get promoted again. That path probably means he's a top 5-10 prospect in all of baseball though. |
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 19, 2024 16:29:07 GMT -5
Look at it this way:
1) We agree Campbell is probably not making his MLB debut this year. If so, then...
2) What's the point of pushing him to AAA so quickly? If he starts 2025 there, he's on roughly the same timeline.
The fact he's already in AA in June of his first full season (he hasn't even been a pro for a year yet) is already a very aggressive push. Get the idea of Worcester out of your heads unless we're talking him getting a cup of coffee in the last couple weeks to get used to where he's going to start next year.
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Post by bosoxnation on Jun 19, 2024 16:37:44 GMT -5
Our system is so stacked there is no reason to rush anyone. We're going to be in a position of player overload where we might need to make a megatrade because Bloom drafted extremly well. Outfield is stacked We got our 1st baseman, SS, TONs of options at 2nd. I personally thought Zanetello or Cespedes would push Devers to DH but it might happen even sooner. Catcher is locked up with Wong and Teel. We're really not very far off.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jun 19, 2024 16:47:32 GMT -5
I dont know where Campbell winds up defensively, but the Sox are very left handed and the Big 3 coming along are all lefties.
A power hitting righty is something this team can definitely use down the road. Of all the prospects beyond the Big 3, Campbell has captured my attention the most. Cespedes has as well, and yeah, to a lesser degree Bleis, but Campbell is somebody who could very well be on next year's team at some point later in the season, and eventually become a key player. I know there are concerns about his swing and increasing k rate, and while I'm certainly not projecting him to be an all star I think he could be quite interesting, interesting enough I wouldn't cap his potential.
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Post by nonothing on Jun 19, 2024 21:08:49 GMT -5
We have crossed he 50 AB threshold in AA - k% is at 17.5%, he’s still demolishing pitches. Can we safely assume that Campbell is the greatest Red Sox prospect since [_____], or is it still to early to tell? He also hits righties/is not just mashing lefties so much it lifts his overall numbers (the Jordan/Jh Garcia and Mayer in reverse situation) |
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Post by nonothing on Jun 19, 2024 21:19:36 GMT -5
Look at it this way: 1) We agree Campbell is probably not making his MLB debut this year. If so, then... 2) What's the point of pushing him to AAA so quickly? If he starts 2025 there, he's on roughly the same timeline. The fact he's already in AA in June of his first full season (he hasn't even been a pro for a year yet) is already a very aggressive push. Get the idea of Worcester out of your heads unless we're talking him getting a cup of coffee in the last couple weeks to get used to where he's going to start next year. I only think he sees Worcester for a cup of coffee, unless they think he might be able to break camp with them next year -- or if they actually look like a playoff team with a bunch of injuries and they see him as capable of being on the Benintendi type trajectory. But I really doubt that and strongly suspect he is in Portland for 200-300 ABs to your point. I think people want to rush development in ways that often hurt the player. Maybe he could be the exception, but it doesn't usually help to rush a guy. But I do think he could be in MLB next year at some point -- if there is a defensive home. Still haven't heard much about his 2B D. OF D sounds rough -- which makes sense as it is new. Anyone comment on his 2B defense pls? |
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Post by ancientsoxfogey on Jun 20, 2024 8:15:37 GMT -5
I've seen a couple of videos where Campbell shows a little too much hot dog for my liking.
But then again, I'm a 20th century man living in a 21st century world.
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Post by ephus on Jun 20, 2024 8:52:21 GMT -5
I've seen a couple of videos where Campbell shows a little too much hot dog for my liking. But then again, I'm a 20th century man living in a 21st century world. Counterpoint: The Kids Are Alright. OK, backing off your lawn. |
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Post by 0ap0 on Jun 20, 2024 9:58:19 GMT -5
I've seen a couple of videos where Campbell shows a little too much hot dog for my liking. But then again, I'm a 20th century man living in a 21st century world. This sounds like a euphemism for not zipping his fly. But then again, I'm an 8-year-old boy living in a middle-aged body. |
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Post by scottysmalls on Jun 20, 2024 10:37:26 GMT -5
Campbell's up to 3rd among all minor leaguers with at least 200 PAs in wRC+. Though he's also 3rd in BABIP.
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Post by nonothing on Jun 20, 2024 20:03:44 GMT -5
Campbell's up to 3rd among all minor leaguers with at least 200 PAs in wRC+. Though he's also 3rd in BABIP. High BABIP should follow high EVs and speed I would think. Valid point he maybe is having a degree of luck, but I wonder how much sin e probably some portion of higher BABIP than avg is to be expected given his characteristics as a hitter. |
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Post by ancientsoxfogey on Jun 20, 2024 20:17:28 GMT -5
I think the discussion of Campbell's K% is a common statistical confusion of looking at the wrong parameter. To evaluate this in a more comprehensive context you need to look at aggregates as well as percentages.
The difference in Campbell's K performance over the time he's been in Portland thus far relative to what it was in Greenville amounts to about 5 avoided K's. Seems to me that could easily be explained by AA not having a "book" on him yet.
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