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Post by gregblossersbelly on Aug 8, 2024 15:19:32 GMT -5
If he can handle 2b, that would be incredible for this team. All those lefties and a good RH bat will help balance things out.
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Post by rickasadoorian on Aug 9, 2024 12:46:28 GMT -5
As far as I can tell, then:
a) The Red Sox drafted Campbell because they thought they could unlock some power in his swing. He then proceeded to unlock a ton of power in his swing (and put up great overall numbers).
b) The Red Sox then asked him to make an adjustment that would result in more contact. He then proceeded to make a lot more contact (and continued to put up great overall numbers).
Is it fair to say that this general pattern is a really bullish sign for how well he might continue to adjust at the higher levels?
Maybe? He's still rocking a .422 BAbip but he's also putting the ball in play more. If his K% is closer to 15% than 25%, he's putting the ball in play an extra 60-70 times a year. Even at average BAbip luck, that's 18-21 hits. It's the difference between hitting .270 or .300. I'd guess the next step is finding a happy medium between contact and power, which he did in June. Maybe the lack of power the last 28 games is just a fluke and he'll go on another power surge soon enough. Another positive sign is he has no real splits to speak of. Whether its home/away, right/left, young pitcher/old pitcher. With all that said, he still has an ISO under .100 over the last 28 games (126 PA), and a .409 BAbip. 36/88. Give him average luck (.300 BAbip), he's slashing .250/.373/.346 during that stretch instead of .346/.452/.442. For the year, he's 98/232 (.422) in balls in play. Give him average luck, his season line drops to .256/.377/.465 (still really good) instead of .344/.449/.553.
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Post by incandenza on Aug 9, 2024 13:28:35 GMT -5
This is anecdotal, but it seems to me that high BABIP correlates with being a better hitter in the minor leagues, so it's actually a positive indicator (all else being equal) rather than a cause for skepticism. Is there anything to this?
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Post by rickasadoorian on Aug 9, 2024 14:29:01 GMT -5
This is anecdotal, but it seems to me that high BABIP correlates with being a better hitter in the minor leagues, so it's actually a positive indicator (all else being equal) rather than a cause for skepticism. Is there anything to this? I don't know the answer to that but among batters with 200+ PA in AA, he is first with a .439 BAbip. Tim Elko is 2nd, with a .398. He's lapping the competition. The top 10 is full of 24+ year olds Not including the complex league and the DSL, he's first in all of MiLB at .422. 2nd place is Druw Jones in A ball, at .408. Niko Kavadas leads AAA with a .395 BAbip. Mayer is at .367. Teel is at .366. Sykes is at .363. McDonough is at .356. Anthony .338. Paulino .335 Binelas .326. Maybe Portland and the wall have something do with it? The average BAbip in the Eastern League is .303. The Seadogs are at .331. edit: Their home BAbip this year is .352.
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Post by crossedsabres8 on Aug 9, 2024 16:36:20 GMT -5
This is anecdotal, but it seems to me that high BABIP correlates with being a better hitter in the minor leagues, so it's actually a positive indicator (all else being equal) rather than a cause for skepticism. Is there anything to this? There was some analysis I read years ago that saw BABIP in the minor leagues a great indicator for future hitting ability. I've searched before to find it again but I haven't been able to.
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Post by KoreaSoxFan on Aug 9, 2024 22:38:38 GMT -5
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pd
Veteran
Posts: 324
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Post by pd on Aug 10, 2024 10:43:54 GMT -5
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Post by greatscottcooper on Aug 10, 2024 11:27:54 GMT -5
This is crazy. Baring injury, or a big step backwards or developmental stalling the Sox have 3 guys who are going to be rookies and in the conversation for making the roster in 2025. I’m tempted to add Campbell as the 4th to that group. You know who the other three are. He kind of fits exactly what they need too. A RHH up the middle defender.
All he has done since he signed has performed.
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Post by ephus on Aug 10, 2024 13:12:53 GMT -5
Mr. Helium 2024.
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Post by capesox on Aug 10, 2024 22:32:01 GMT -5
With all the talk of how good Campbell has been hitting wise (deserved) he has 20 steals and is playing SS when Mayer hasn't been in the lineup. Has played 2B and CF too, really shows that he must be an athlete. Not easy to play 3 up the middle positions and be given that opportunity in AA. He is looking good in every aspect.
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Post by geostorm on Aug 11, 2024 17:33:57 GMT -5
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Aug 11, 2024 18:50:32 GMT -5
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Aug 11, 2024 19:17:31 GMT -5
Oppo pop😀
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Aug 11, 2024 19:40:59 GMT -5
This is anecdotal, but it seems to me that high BABIP correlates with being a better hitter in the minor leagues, so it's actually a positive indicator (all else being equal) rather than a cause for skepticism. Is there anything to this? I don't know the answer to that but among batters with 200+ PA in AA, he is first with a .439 BAbip. Tim Elko is 2nd, with a .398. He's lapping the competition. The top 10 is full of 24+ year olds Not including the complex league and the DSL, he's first in all of MiLB at .422. 2nd place is Druw Jones in A ball, at .408. Niko Kavadas leads AAA with a .395 BAbip. Mayer is at .367. Teel is at .366. Sykes is at .363. McDonough is at .356. Anthony .338. Paulino .335 Binelas .326. Maybe Portland and the wall have something do with it? The average BAbip in the Eastern League is .303. The Seadogs are at .331. edit: Their home BAbip this year is .352. Pretty sure that for Kavadas it means that he's lucky and it portends that he won't be worth a damn as a MLB hitter. Good sign for Campbell and all those other guys, though...
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Post by soxinsf on Aug 11, 2024 21:56:24 GMT -5
With all the talk of how good Campbell has been hitting wise (deserved) he has 20 steals and is playing SS when Mayer hasn't been in the lineup. Has played 2B and CF too, really shows that he must be an athlete. Not easy to play 3 up the middle positions and be given that opportunity in AA. He is looking good in every aspect. I have to to read how Campbell’s progress is less impressive than that if the big three. OK, he did not hit HRs for a while. All he did ws to outhit the others while playing every up the middle position. Ok, so leaving aside please that “they” know better than you as a point of argument, why has Campbell also not moved to Worcester Maybe it because he doesn’t catch.
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cdj
Veteran
Posts: 15,645
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Post by cdj on Aug 11, 2024 22:05:56 GMT -5
I don't know the answer to that but among batters with 200+ PA in AA, he is first with a .439 BAbip. Tim Elko is 2nd, with a .398. He's lapping the competition. The top 10 is full of 24+ year olds Not including the complex league and the DSL, he's first in all of MiLB at .422. 2nd place is Druw Jones in A ball, at .408. Niko Kavadas leads AAA with a .395 BAbip. Mayer is at .367. Teel is at .366. Sykes is at .363. McDonough is at .356. Anthony .338. Paulino .335 Binelas .326. Maybe Portland and the wall have something do with it? The average BAbip in the Eastern League is .303. The Seadogs are at .331. edit: Their home BAbip this year is .352. Pretty sure that for Kavadas it means that he's lucky and it portends that he won't be worth a damn as a MLB hitter. Good sign for Campbell and all those other guys, though... He does hit the snot out of the ball when he does make contact so it doesn’t surprise me he runs a high BABIP. The problem is he’s already a TTO guy in AAA…you gotta figure the K rate will spike even higher in the majors and at that point is he playable?
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Aug 12, 2024 5:54:00 GMT -5
With all the talk of how good Campbell has been hitting wise (deserved) he has 20 steals and is playing SS when Mayer hasn't been in the lineup. Has played 2B and CF too, really shows that he must be an athlete. Not easy to play 3 up the middle positions and be given that opportunity in AA. He is looking good in every aspect. I have to to read how Campbell’s progress is less impressive than that if the big three. OK, he did not hit HRs for a while. All he did ws to outhit the others while playing every up the middle position. Ok, so leaving aside please that “they” know better than you as a point of argument, why has Campbell also not moved to Worcester Maybe it because he doesn’t catch. I never understand folks who get indignant about stuff like this... Anyway, part of the issue with Campbell is space on the Worcester roster. They now have Mayer, Meidroth, and Grissom needing middle infield reps (although Meidroth likely goes back to getting most of his PT at 3B). The outfield is more open but I'm not sure they want him moving to getting nearly all of this playing time out there at this point. Mayer got 524 AA PA, Anthony 420, Teel 421. Campbell is at 223. It's not crazy that he hasn't moved up yet. He can still start next year in Worcester so I'm not sure it's a big deal.
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Post by pappyman99 on Aug 12, 2024 8:57:24 GMT -5
I think Campbell starts in AAA next year barring a collapse
Meidroth, Hamilton, Story, Grissom, Sogard…..
Going to be a lot of people traded this offseason (not all of the above, but betting at least two)
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Post by ematz1423 on Aug 12, 2024 9:16:07 GMT -5
I think Campbell starts in AAA next year barring a collapse Meidroth, Hamilton, Story, Grissom, Sogard….. Going to be a lot of people traded this offseason (not all of the above, but betting at least two) Eh Meidroth doesn't need to be added to the 40 man yet, I don't think it's as much of a MI jam as some might think. Besides as we've seen it's good to have depth up the middle.
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Post by rickasadoorian on Aug 12, 2024 11:03:21 GMT -5
With all the talk of how good Campbell has been hitting wise (deserved) he has 20 steals and is playing SS when Mayer hasn't been in the lineup. Has played 2B and CF too, really shows that he must be an athlete. Not easy to play 3 up the middle positions and be given that opportunity in AA. He is looking good in every aspect. I have to to read how Campbell’s progress is less impressive than that if the big three. OK, he did not hit HRs for a while. All he did ws to outhit the others while playing every up the middle position. Ok, so leaving aside please that “they” know better than you as a point of argument, why has Campbell also not moved to Worcester Maybe it because he doesn’t catch. Where are you reading this? Everything I see is talking about it now being a big 4. And while it doesn't mean much, Campbell is probably the Sox Minor League POY this year.
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tedf
Rookie
Posts: 162
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Post by tedf on Aug 12, 2024 11:10:48 GMT -5
Do we have any idea yet how Campbell grades defensively?
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Post by incandenza on Aug 12, 2024 11:13:58 GMT -5
I have to to read how Campbell’s progress is less impressive than that if the big three. OK, he did not hit HRs for a while. All he did ws to outhit the others while playing every up the middle position. Ok, so leaving aside please that “they” know better than you as a point of argument, why has Campbell also not moved to Worcester Maybe it because he doesn’t catch. Where are you reading this? Everything I see is talking about it now being a big 4. And while it doesn't mean much, Campbell is probably the Sox Minor League POY this year. The folks at soxprospects.com have explicitly said it's not a big 4 - that Campbell is still in a tier below the big 3 (and in fact he's behind Montgomery too). But having said that, I don't think anyone is saying Campbell's progress is "less impressive" either. The big 3 started this season as the big 3, whereas Campbell started the season as the #22 prospect in the system, so his progress has been immense.
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Post by soxinsf on Aug 12, 2024 12:56:40 GMT -5
The case for Campbell not moving up now, as made by folks here, are: only 233 AB at AA; no room on the WooSox roster for another MIF; he is going to start 2025 in Worcester anyhow.
My questions remain: if he is outhitting the big three over everyone’s last 200+ ABs; if Meidroth will go back to playing third thus eliminating a MIF logjam; if Campbell was getting plenty of CF reps before Meyer got hurt and there is an OF opening in Worcester; if Sox prospects expect the big three to start 2025 in Worcester—then why is it indignant to ask why Campbell did not also move up?
What does his performance lack? Please answer that. It is a fair question. He might be the 2B answer if Grissom does not come around.
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Post by bluechip on Aug 12, 2024 13:09:47 GMT -5
The case for Campbell not moving up now, as made by folks here, are: only 233 AB at AA; no room on the WooSox roster for another MIF; he is going to start 2025 in Worcester anyhow. My questions remain: if he is outhitting the big three over everyone’s last 200+ ABs; if Meidroth will go back to playing third thus eliminating a MIF logjam; if Campbell was getting plenty of CF reps before Meyer got hurt and there is an OF opening in Worcester; if Sox prospects expect the big three to start 2025 in Worcester—then why is it indignant to ask why Campbell did not also move up? What does his performance lack? Please answer that. It is a fair question. He might be the 2B answer if Grissom does not come around. What does he lack that the others have? Well, the other open position in AAA. Meyer plays short. Anthony plays outfield. Teel catcher. No one blocking them. Grissom needs AAA at bats, his stature is at least as strong as anyone of the Red Sox prospects, and he in essence is a prospect. So Campbell is blocked at AAA, which the others are not. What might be different to start 2025? Hopefully, Grissom is on the majors, either at second or the outfield. Campbell then can go to AAA.
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Post by puzzler on Aug 12, 2024 13:13:33 GMT -5
The case for Campbell not moving up now, as made by folks here, are: only 233 AB at AA; no room on the WooSox roster for another MIF; he is going to start 2025 in Worcester anyhow. My questions remain: if he is outhitting the big three over everyone’s last 200+ ABs; if Meidroth will go back to playing third thus eliminating a MIF logjam; if Campbell was getting plenty of CF reps before Meyer got hurt and there is an OF opening in Worcester; if Sox prospects expect the big three to start 2025 in Worcester—then why is it indignant to ask why Campbell did not also move up? What does his performance lack? Please answer that. It is a fair question. He might be the 2B answer if Grissom does not come around. Well, maybe whatever goals he had mapped out for him at AA he hasn't met yet for one. With prospects, it's not always just performance based. But I'll ask a question to answer a question; why is he somehow not the answer to 2B if he doesn't get moved up to AAA now? Like why does it matter?
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