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Post by seamus on Aug 12, 2024 16:06:11 GMT -5
I do think we should try to identify whatever deficiency he has in his game and comment on it, because mentioning that he wasn't hitting home runs seemed to be a good sort of jinx.
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dcb26
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Post by dcb26 on Aug 12, 2024 16:45:18 GMT -5
The case for Campbell not moving up now, as made by folks here, are: only 233 AB at AA; no room on the WooSox roster for another MIF; he is going to start 2025 in Worcester anyhow. My questions remain: if he is outhitting the big three over everyone’s last 200+ ABs; if Meidroth will go back to playing third thus eliminating a MIF logjam; if Campbell was getting plenty of CF reps before Meyer got hurt and there is an OF opening in Worcester; if Sox prospects expect the big three to start 2025 in Worcester—then why is it indignant to ask why Campbell did not also move up? What does his performance lack? Please answer that. It is a fair question. He might be the 2B answer if Grissom does not come around. From the way you used it I'm not sure you're familiar with what indignant means, but perhaps you came across as indignant because, rather than posing a legitimate question, you posed a question and then dismissed out of hand every answer that had already been given for it, waved away the greater expertise of the people who may have tried to answer it, and then answered it yourself with a snarky "maybe its because he doesn't catch" - you used your comment not to actually ask about Campbell, but to complain about and criticize (in advance) everyone who didn't tell you what you wanted to hear. Campbell's an awesome prospect - I think of him as higher than Montgomery myself, although I can see why many others would disagree - but to pose a counterpoint to the "Campbell is already equal/better than the big 3" narrative: the main thing that Campbell has done better than the big 3 in AA is have a higher BABIP, and he's done it in few enough PA's that its hard to say with too much certainty just what happens when that starts to normalize. Add in a swing that still makes a lot of scouts nervous and its not that hard to see why he's not getting fast-tracked faster than the top prospects in the system. All that said, I wouldn't be too shocked to see him get at least a cup of coffee in Worcester this year.
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Post by soxinsf on Aug 12, 2024 18:30:04 GMT -5
The question that was originally asked was what has he not shown to move up with the big three.
No one has yet to address that.
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Post by pasadenasox on Aug 12, 2024 19:41:33 GMT -5
The question that was originally asked was what has he not shown to move up with the big three. No one has yet to address that. Vaughn Grissom needs to play second base in Worcester. It may well be as simple as that. Plus Sogard will probably go back down in the nearish-term and be in the infield mix. Perhaps the org just wants to let him play everyday in Portland. I doubt it’s much more mysterious than that.
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Post by nonothing on Aug 12, 2024 21:47:18 GMT -5
The question that was originally asked was what has he not shown to move up with the big three. No one has yet to address that. Less ABs in Portland. He has not been there as long as the other guys. Given WooSox also need to play Grissom at 2B, why rush Campbell there? If you want to know what he hasn't done... it is play as much in AA. That alone is a thing. Also... he is developing at multiple positions, so that takes time to play each. So he has far less AA time at any single position than any of the "Big 3." Edit: Also unique to Campbell is that Mayer's promotion enables Campbell's continued development at SS, but only if he stays in Portland. If they are at the same level, they both cannot get SS reps each day. Then there is Campbell's swing. What he does better than all of them is consistently make contact + crush balls. There is no doubt that higher BABIP is not always luck. His is high because he hits high EVs. I am not sure what his predicted BABIP would be based on his barrel rate and EVs, but it should be high. He is great at that. But... have you watched his swing? It amazing he hits the ball as hard as he does as consistently as he does because... let's just say that if one of mama's 4 ducklings (where ducklings are swings) is less pretty than the others..., well Campbell's swing is the not so beautiful duckling. If they can help him create a better bat path, it will make him a better player long term. And that is probably best done by the instructional staff in AA before he gets to AAA. Hopefully those thoughts seem reasonable enough.
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Post by bishop on Aug 12, 2024 23:49:38 GMT -5
The question that was originally asked was what has he not shown to move up with the big three. No one has yet to address that. Also unique to Campbell is that Mayer's promotion enables Campbell's continued development at SS, but only if he stays in Portland. If they are at the same level, they both cannot get SS reps each day. To me this is the key, and a really bullish indicator. Unless I'm mistaken no one in the prospect game was projecting he might even potentially be an MLB SS up until a month ago, and this is a team that never once gave Nick Yorke a look there and doesn't seem at all interested in checking out Vaughn Grissom at it despite not having a great MLB SS right now. I've seen talk his arm has improved as well as the hitting since Tech and it would seem to be the case if they're willing to play him every day over there. Even if he "just" ends up being the long term 2B next to Mayer at SS like many of us hope it'd be a great little bonus if he's capable of covering SS if Mayer is out or needs a day off, and getting every day SS reps in Portland seems more valuable than the relatively negligible difference in pitching quality between AA and AAA. (I'm also really hoping he doesn't get traded, but if he shows enough and suddenly grades out as an SS not a 2B who can hit... that trade value goes up a whole tier)
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Post by patford on Aug 13, 2024 8:13:45 GMT -5
Given the fact there are a large number of people who believe Campbell's load-stride-swing are so quirky he will be exposed by advanced pitching the Red Sox might want to push Campbell aggressively. He's not a 17 year old in the DSL or an 18 year old high school draftee. If his load-stride-swing ultimately aren't going to work then he needs to find that out as quickly as possible so some sort of mechanical overhaul can be done.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Aug 13, 2024 9:13:28 GMT -5
Given the fact there are a large number of people who believe Campbell's load-stride-swing are so quirky he will be exposed by advanced pitching the Red Sox might want to push Campbell aggressively. He's not a 17 year old in the DSL or an 18 year old high school draftee. If his load-stride-swing ultimately aren't going to work then he needs to find that out as quickly as possible so some sort of mechanical overhaul can be done. Alternatively, you could have him work on things at a level where the result won't be an 0-for-two-weeks or something. To be very clear, I think your point is smart. I'm mostly playing devil's advocate to make the point that these things can usually cut both ways. Now, if he weren't listening to coaching or something (this happens!), then yeah, push him until it breaks.
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Post by patford on Aug 13, 2024 13:59:47 GMT -5
Given the fact there are a large number of people who believe Campbell's load-stride-swing are so quirky he will be exposed by advanced pitching the Red Sox might want to push Campbell aggressively. He's not a 17 year old in the DSL or an 18 year old high school draftee. If his load-stride-swing ultimately aren't going to work then he needs to find that out as quickly as possible so some sort of mechanical overhaul can be done. Alternatively, you could have him work on things at a level where the result won't be an 0-for-two-weeks or something. To be very clear, I think your point is smart. I'm mostly playing devil's advocate to make the point that these things can usually cut both ways. Now, if he weren't listening to coaching or something (this happens!), then yeah, push him until it breaks. But how does anyone convince a guy hitting .380 with power that he needs to fix his mechanics?
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Post by seamus on Aug 13, 2024 14:02:46 GMT -5
How big is the difference between AA and AAA at this point in the season? We talk about the low minors being a lot worse than in the past because the lack of short-season ball has pushed guys up to Low-A and High-A faster than before, but how does the affect the high minors at this point in the season?
Playing time would seem to be the primary motivator for keeping Campbell in AA at this point, but I'm mostly curious how the level of competition could be factoring in to Campbell's prospective promotion timeline.
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Post by okin15 on Aug 13, 2024 14:28:33 GMT -5
Alternatively, you could have him work on things at a level where the result won't be an 0-for-two-weeks or something. To be very clear, I think your point is smart. I'm mostly playing devil's advocate to make the point that these things can usually cut both ways. Now, if he weren't listening to coaching or something (this happens!), then yeah, push him until it breaks. But how does anyone convince a guy hitting .380 with power that he needs to fix his mechanics? Well, one way might be to not let him up to AAA until he agrees to listen to the coaches. And if you think it's the AAA-MLB jump that's going to be the issue, then that might be your last leverage point.
Of course, being a box-score scout, I was kinda pushing for him to come to Boston a while back, so what do I know. FYI, I've already come around on that one, so no need to argue w me over it.
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Post by rickasadoorian on Aug 13, 2024 14:35:14 GMT -5
Alternatively, you could have him work on things at a level where the result won't be an 0-for-two-weeks or something. To be very clear, I think your point is smart. I'm mostly playing devil's advocate to make the point that these things can usually cut both ways. Now, if he weren't listening to coaching or something (this happens!), then yeah, push him until it breaks. But how does anyone convince a guy hitting .380 with power that he needs to fix his mechanics? And why would they want him to? Don't fix it until it's broken.
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Post by incandenza on Aug 13, 2024 14:39:51 GMT -5
6/4-7/14: 13% BB rate, 19% K rate, .220 ISO, 219 wRC+ 7/15-8/2: 14% BB rate, 4% K rate, .068 ISO, 118 wRC+ 8/3-8/11: 21% BB rate, 14% K rate, .455 ISO, 279 wRC+
Stage 1: Incredible performance across the board, slightly elevated K rate. Stage 2: Simply chooses to not strike out; pays for it with a loss of power. Stage 3: The higher synthesis; all capacities in balance; ascension to the astral plane.
Does not seem like a player unable or unwilling to make adjustments, from whatever the stats can tell us.
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mobaz
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Posts: 3,011
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Post by mobaz on Aug 13, 2024 15:08:19 GMT -5
With his dramatic decrease in Whiff and K, has come a dramatic decrease in hard contact overall, not just his lack of home runs. He's talked multiple times about trying to find the right balance of his offense abilities, so I assume this is just an ebb and flow. pretty remarkable that he can just switch between being Barry bonds and ichiro but I think I’d prefer Barry.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Aug 13, 2024 15:12:35 GMT -5
pretty remarkable that he can just switch between being Barry bonds and ichiro but I think I’d prefer Barry. Let's hope this is the argument we're all having once he reaches the majors.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Aug 13, 2024 15:57:08 GMT -5
But how does anyone convince a guy hitting .380 with power that he needs to fix his mechanics? And why would they want him to? Don't fix it until it's broken. Jim Furyk
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Aug 13, 2024 16:01:26 GMT -5
Let's hope this is the argument we're all having once he reaches the majors. Let's hope he never asks his buddy do jail time for not narcing on him...
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Post by itinerantherb on Aug 13, 2024 16:08:40 GMT -5
But how does anyone convince a guy hitting .380 with power that he needs to fix his mechanics? Well, one way might be to not let him up to AAA until he agrees to listen to the coaches. And if you think it's the AAA-MLB jump that's going to be the issue, then that might be your last leverage point.
Of course, being a box-score scout, I was kinda pushing for him to come to Boston a while back, so what do I know. FYI, I've already come around on that one, so no need to argue w me over it.
Regarding the bolded, has there been any reporting that he's resistant to a swing change that his coaches have advocated? I recall reading the opposite. It may just be that they're comfortable with his weird swing, or at least that they don't see a reason to fix it until it's clearly broke.
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Post by patford on Aug 13, 2024 22:27:20 GMT -5
But how does anyone convince a guy hitting .380 with power that he needs to fix his mechanics? And why would they want him to? Don't fix it until it's broken. There's a thought at a higher level he will be exposed. It's not the swing itself but that load and stride which are questioned. As I understand it the load and stride are ferocious. The strange thing is that hyper aggressive load and stride do not translate to a lot of swing and miss or chase. What's kind of funny is he was moved up to Portland with the idea of challenging him with more advanced pitching and then he turns around and is hitting even better than he was in Greenville. And he's no longer in the infamous SSS area while at Portland. It's 52 games and approaching 200 AB.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Aug 14, 2024 6:29:34 GMT -5
To be clear, I don't think anyone has used "fix his mechanics" here.
"You're doing great, we think these further tweaks will help your success translate even better in the majors" is more along the lines of GM actual conversation here. And keep in mind they're the ones who helped him unlock this offensive potential.
And again this is all supposition. He's probably ready for AAA but again, if they want him playing in the middle infield regularly, another month in AA isn't going to be detrimental to him.
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Post by patford on Aug 14, 2024 8:43:32 GMT -5
To be clear, I don't think anyone has used "fix his mechanics" here. "You're doing great, we think these further tweaks will help your success translate even better in the majors" is more along the lines of GM actual conversation here. And keep in mind they're the ones who helped him unlock this offensive potential. And again this is all supposition. He's probably ready for AAA but again, if they want him playing in the middle infield regularly, another month in AA isn't going to be detrimental to him. My fan level understanding is a "swing" is divided into three parts. The load, the stride and the swing. It's confusing to discuss because all three are distinct but lumped together as the "swing" with "the swing" also being one of the parts and the most important part. As I recall Ian has said Campbell's third part of the equation (the swing) is fine. It's the load and stride which are weirdly hyper aggressive. This is further complicated by the load including (in most cases) a timing device. As the swing is fine what are the drawbacks with Campbell's load and stride? Is there a thought he's going to injure himself "slamming on the brakes" every time he takes a pitch? That as opposed to guys who spit on pitches they instantly identify as one they aren't going to swing at because it's not to their liking? Does Campbell's approach change at all depending on the count? Is he more quiet when he's ahead in the count and perhaps looking for a specific pitch? Is there a thought he is having trouble identifying a pitch as it leaves the pitcher's hand? Basically why are parts 1 and 2 a concern?
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Post by rickasadoorian on Aug 14, 2024 9:01:44 GMT -5
To be clear, I don't think anyone has used "fix his mechanics" here. "You're doing great, we think these further tweaks will help your success translate even better in the majors" is more along the lines of GM actual conversation here. And keep in mind they're the ones who helped him unlock this offensive potential. And again this is all supposition. He's probably ready for AAA but again, if they want him playing in the middle infield regularly, another month in AA isn't going to be detrimental to him. My fan level understanding is a "swing" is divided into three parts. The load, the stride and the swing. It's confusing to discuss because all three are distinct but lumped together as the "swing" with "the swing" also being one of the parts and the most important part. As I recall Ian has said Campbell's third part of the equation (the swing) is fine. It's the load and stride which are weirdly hyper aggressive. This is further complicated by the load including (in most cases) a timing device. As the swing is fine what are the drawbacks with Campbell's load and stride? Is there a thought he's going to injure himself "slamming on the brakes" every time he takes a pitch? That as opposed to guys who spit on pitches they instantly identify as one they aren't going to swing at because it's not to their liking? Does Campbell's approach change at all depending on the count? Is he more quiet when he's ahead in the count and perhaps looking for a specific pitch? Is there a thought he is having trouble identifying a pitch as it leaves the pitcher's hand? Basically why are parts 1 and 2 a concern? I thought I read the concern was he's cheating on pitches. AKA looking for a specific pitch in a specific location. It'd be hard to know without splits from pitch type. I'm sold on him, though. He now has more walks than strikeouts at the AA level, which is a marked improvement from A+. Having more BB than K is a pretty good sign of future success (ignoring the DSL, and probably FCL where BB% means far less) assuming they are age appropriate and hit for some power. Over his last 28 games and 130 PA, he has 21bb/13k. He also has 77 line drives this year, compared to 70 fly balls. 30.8% LD% compared to a 28.0% FB%. There's also no split to speak of, whether it's home/road or left/right. At some point, he is going to have a real slump. It hasn't happened yet, but it's inevitable. It'll be interesting to see how he adjusts.
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Post by patford on Aug 14, 2024 10:17:34 GMT -5
My fan level understanding is a "swing" is divided into three parts. The load, the stride and the swing. It's confusing to discuss because all three are distinct but lumped together as the "swing" with "the swing" also being one of the parts and the most important part. As I recall Ian has said Campbell's third part of the equation (the swing) is fine. It's the load and stride which are weirdly hyper aggressive. This is further complicated by the load including (in most cases) a timing device. As the swing is fine what are the drawbacks with Campbell's load and stride? Is there a thought he's going to injure himself "slamming on the brakes" every time he takes a pitch? That as opposed to guys who spit on pitches they instantly identify as one they aren't going to swing at because it's not to their liking? Does Campbell's approach change at all depending on the count? Is he more quiet when he's ahead in the count and perhaps looking for a specific pitch? Is there a thought he is having trouble identifying a pitch as it leaves the pitcher's hand? Basically why are parts 1 and 2 a concern? I thought I read the concern was he's cheating on pitches. AKA looking for a specific pitch in a specific location. It'd be hard to know without splits from pitch type. I'm sold on him, though. He now has more walks than strikeouts at the AA level, which is a marked improvement from A+. Having more BB than K is a pretty good sign of future success (ignoring the DSL, and probably FCL where BB% means far less) assuming they are age appropriate and hit for some power. Over his last 28 games and 130 PA, he has 21bb/13k. He also has 77 line drives this year, compared to 70 fly balls. 30.8% LD% compared to a 28.0% FB%. There's also no split to speak of, whether it's home/road or left/right. At some point, he is going to have a real slump. It hasn't happened yet, but it's inevitable. It'll be interesting to see how he adjusts. I thought it was the opposite with the concern being he approaches every single pitch like a man intent on splitting a log with an axe but at the last moment will break off and not swing the axe from it's apex down to the log.
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Post by 0ap0 on Aug 14, 2024 10:26:14 GMT -5
I thought I read the concern was he's cheating on pitches. AKA looking for a specific pitch in a specific location. It'd be hard to know without splits from pitch type. I thought it was the opposite with the concern being he approaches every single pitch like a man intent on splitting a log with an axe but at the last moment will break off and not swing the axe from it's apex down to the log. Right. My understanding of the concern is that with slightly faster pitches and more accurate breaking balls he won't have time to make his decision.
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Post by okin15 on Aug 14, 2024 12:33:37 GMT -5
Well, one way might be to not let him up to AAA until he agrees to listen to the coaches. And if you think it's the AAA-MLB jump that's going to be the issue, then that might be your last leverage point. Regarding the bolded, has there been any reporting that he's resistant to a swing change that his coaches have advocated? I recall reading the opposite. It may just be that they're comfortable with his weird swing, or at least that they don't see a reason to fix it until it's clearly broke. Yes, sorry, I didn't mean to state that he wasn't. I should have noted this was simply a possible answer to the question posed. I don't have any insight or opinion on whether he is listening to coaches or not. I think I've heard/read the same as you.
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