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Post by threeifbaerga on Jul 8, 2024 15:44:42 GMT -5
He's still a 23 year old right handed hitter with a long track record of hitting the hell out of the ball, only now his trade value is as low as it's ever been. Let him get healthy and hit a little before you trade him. can't the same be said for Yorke? I still see Grissom as 2-3 weeks away from starting a rehab assignment, and given his lack of playing time this year, could run for a month (or longer). at best, he is a Sept 1 roster help The same could be said for Yorke except he might not be a 2b at the ML level and his trade value isn't at its lowest. Probably higher now than any time since his first season in the system.
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Post by scottysmalls on Jul 8, 2024 15:45:58 GMT -5
can't the same be said for Yorke? I still see Grissom as 2-3 weeks away from starting a rehab assignment, and given his lack of playing time this year, could run for a month (or longer). at best, he is a Sept 1 roster help The same could be said for Yorke except he might not be a 2b at the ML level and his trade value isn't at its lowest. Probably higher now than any time since his first season in the system. Is Yorke thought of as a worse defender at 2B right now than Grissom? In my head he's probably a little better, given Grissom has been awful there.
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Post by threeifbaerga on Jul 8, 2024 15:50:21 GMT -5
The same could be said for Yorke except he might not be a 2b at the ML level and his trade value isn't at its lowest. Probably higher now than any time since his first season in the system. Is Yorke thought of as a worse defender at 2B right now than Grissom? In my head he's probably a little better, given Grissom has been awful there. Hard for me to say, but I don't know if it's fair to judge Grissom there when he's been dealing with hamstring injuries all season.
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Post by scottysmalls on Jul 8, 2024 15:52:35 GMT -5
Is Yorke thought of as a worse defender at 2B right now than Grissom? In my head he's probably a little better, given Grissom has been awful there. Hard for me to say, but I don't know if it's fair to judge Grissom there when he's been dealing with hamstring injuries all season. He was also terrible there in 368 innings for Atlanta across 2022 and 2023 though
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Post by threeifbaerga on Jul 8, 2024 15:58:57 GMT -5
Hard for me to say, but I don't know if it's fair to judge Grissom there when he's been dealing with hamstring injuries all season. He was also terrible there in 368 innings for Atlanta across 2022 and 2023 though I'm not sure if the numbers bear out "terrible," I would agree with below average in the equivalent of 40 games across two years, but he was also transitioning to 2b after playing SS primarily in his minor league career. And this is all besides my greater point which is that his value is at its absolute nadir. What could be accomplished by trading him now?
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Post by scottysmalls on Jul 8, 2024 16:05:12 GMT -5
He was also terrible there in 368 innings for Atlanta across 2022 and 2023 though I'm not sure if the numbers bear out "terrible," I would agree with below average in the equivalent of 40 games across two years, but he was also transitioning to 2b after playing SS primarily in his minor league career. And this is all besides my greater point which is that his value is at its absolute nadir. What could be accomplished by trading him now? -7 OAA, -5 FRV in 554 innings for his career, if you extrapolate that to a full season it's just about what the worst 2Bs in baseball put up (it's significantly worse than Luis Arraez for instance). My only point is that I think Yorke, from my understanding, rates as better than that. I too am optimistic that Grissom can eventually be better as well, but you cast doubt on Yorke's ability to play 2B and I think he's probably better there than Grissom is today. As far as trading him I'm not advocating for it, that all depends on what the Red Sox think of his value compared to the rest of their potential MI options, and what other teams think of it.
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asm18
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Posts: 2,596
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Post by asm18 on Jul 8, 2024 16:08:02 GMT -5
Hard for me to say, but I don't know if it's fair to judge Grissom there when he's been dealing with hamstring injuries all season. He was also terrible there in 368 innings for Atlanta across 2022 and 2023 though I know the alternative to 2B for him is supposedly LF. Obviously if he hits the way he’s capable of that’s doable for either position, but with the Red Sox now or going forwards is he really playing LF over like Duran/O’Neill/acquisition X/Roman Anthony? I bring this up because it seems like the best place for Vaughn Grissom is a team that’s not super worried about winning right away so he can establish himself at a position and in the Majors - which was supposed to be the Red Sox. And then he got hurt and the team ended up better than the front office thought 😁 Where is he supposed to be play next year with Story coming back and Mayer is knocking on the door
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Jul 8, 2024 16:20:53 GMT -5
I don't see Chisolm's potential impact/fit as exceeding the likely cost it will take to acquire him. He also hasn't played the IF since 2022. 2022 was a year and a half ago. The story says that SS is his natural position, that he moved from 2b to cf because they needed a cf not because he was bad at cf, and that his 2b defense is better than his cf defense.
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Post by ematz1423 on Jul 8, 2024 16:28:58 GMT -5
I don't see Chisolm's potential impact/fit as exceeding the likely cost it will take to acquire him. He also hasn't played the IF since 2022. 2022 was a year and a half ago. The story says that SS is his natural position, that he moved from 2b to cf because they needed a cf not because he was bad at cf, and that his 2b defense is better than his cf defense. He would maybe be the 3rd best CFer on the sox if they acquired him and while sure 1.5 years isn't a lifetime it's still a significant gap to trade for a guy and then ask him to pick it back up in the middle of a playoff race. I'd give up a package of Valdez and a mid level prospect or two. Anything more than that I don't really see the value to the sox and I also don't see the marlins not getting a better offer elsewhere. I don't really see the fit in my opinion but sure if they think he can instantly pick 2nd base back up then he'd likely be an upgrade over Valdez.
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Post by incandenza on Jul 8, 2024 16:32:38 GMT -5
I don't see Chisolm's potential impact/fit as exceeding the likely cost it will take to acquire him. He also hasn't played the IF since 2022. 2022 was a year and a half ago. The story says that SS is his natural position, that he moved from 2b to cf because they needed a cf not because he was bad at cf, and that his 2b defense is better than his cf defense. He has -9 OAA at SS in about 330 career innings, which is Kiké-level bad. But he's +8 OAA at 2B in 1300 IP. He has +4 OAA at CF but both DRS and UZR hate him in the outfield.
He's basically a poor man's Rafaela, with perhaps a better median projection but a lower ceiling for his bat; he is massively redundant for 2025 and 2026; he would not be a cheap addition; and once again we are running up against the fact that the Red Sox cannot be improved through a trade for a position player.
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Post by ematz1423 on Jul 8, 2024 16:40:48 GMT -5
2022 was a year and a half ago. The story says that SS is his natural position, that he moved from 2b to cf because they needed a cf not because he was bad at cf, and that his 2b defense is better than his cf defense. He has -9 OAA at SS in about 330 career innings, which is Kiké-level bad. But he's +8 OAA at 2B in 1300 IP. He has +4 OAA at CF but both DRS and UZR hate him in the outfield.
He's basically a poor man's Rafaela, with perhaps a better median projection but a lower ceiling for his bat; he is massively redundant for 2025 and 2026; he would not be a cheap addition; and once again we are running up against the fact that the Red Sox cannot be improved through a trade for a position player. It's a big if but if he can pick 2nd base back up quickly Chisholm would be an upgrade over Valdez but the questions are, how big an upgrade? Is it worth the likely semi haul it would cost to trade for him? My answer to that is that the upgrade is not likely large enough to make the package worth giving up.
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Post by incandenza on Jul 8, 2024 16:51:07 GMT -5
He has -9 OAA at SS in about 330 career innings, which is Kiké-level bad. But he's +8 OAA at 2B in 1300 IP. He has +4 OAA at CF but both DRS and UZR hate him in the outfield.
He's basically a poor man's Rafaela, with perhaps a better median projection but a lower ceiling for his bat; he is massively redundant for 2025 and 2026; he would not be a cheap addition; and once again we are running up against the fact that the Red Sox cannot be improved through a trade for a position player. It's a big if but if he can pick 2nd base back up quickly Chisholm would be an upgrade over Valdez but the questions are, how big an upgrade? Is it worth the likely semi haul it would cost to trade for him? My answer to that is that the upgrade is not likely large enough to make the package worth giving up. I agree about the cost. But would also say that if they see Valdez as that much of a defensive liability they can just play Hamiton/Romy/Rafaela there in some combination. But they're playing Valdez because the guy has a 164 wRC+ since coming back up from AAA.
Between Rafaela, Hamilton, Romy, and Valdez, they have the guys to play any defensive configuration with any platoon alignment they want in the middle infield at like a league average level or better. They also have Grissom (presumably) coming back some time in July or August. There just isn't a need here.
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Post by jbuttah on Jul 8, 2024 16:54:31 GMT -5
From what I've seen CR should be everyday CF. Hamilton/Gonzalez can man SS. Hamilton/Gonzalez/Valdez/Grissom?/Yorke? at 2B. I've gone from thinking Sox need offense to thinking they're gonna need SP, especially with a lot of their pitchers extending beyond their previous innings pitched. Would love to get Eovaldi.
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Post by ematz1423 on Jul 8, 2024 16:59:06 GMT -5
It's a big if but if he can pick 2nd base back up quickly Chisholm would be an upgrade over Valdez but the questions are, how big an upgrade? Is it worth the likely semi haul it would cost to trade for him? My answer to that is that the upgrade is not likely large enough to make the package worth giving up. I agree about the cost. But would also say that if they see Valdez as that much of a defensive liability they can just play Hamiton/Romy/Rafaela there in some combination. But they're playing Valdez because the guy has a 164 wRC+ since coming back up from AAA.
Between Rafaela, Hamilton, Romy, and Valdez, they have the guys to play any defensive configuration with any platoon alignment they want in the middle infield at like a league average level or better. They also have Grissom (presumably) coming back some time in July or August. There just isn't a need here.
I'm not too bullish on Valdez but hopefully he proves me wrong in that regard. May as well ride the hot hand and see how sustainable it is though. Mostly in agreement here overall it sounds. A chisholm deal does not make much sense for the Sox. He may or may not be an actual upgrade for 2024 and his added control is not that helpful for Boston with their other MI/CF options already in the org.
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Post by crossedsabres8 on Jul 8, 2024 17:04:52 GMT -5
The biggest place they could add to the lineup at the moment is at first base.
They obviously have Casas theoretically coming back there which is bigger than any upgrade they could get via trade.
However, they could grab a right handed 1st baseman/DH and send out Yoshida to another team could have some value both long and short term. Obviously Yoshida doesn't really fit long term due to handedness and Casas hasn't exactly been a picture of health throughout his career and his bat is very important to the lineup.
They do have lots of other options though like DHing whoever the 4th outfielder for the day is or Valdez if they put Romy in the infield.
So the line between getting someone who would be an upgrade but also not cost too much is probably very fine.
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Post by oldfaithful2019 on Jul 8, 2024 17:15:00 GMT -5
Hard for me to say, but I don't know if it's fair to judge Grissom there when he's been dealing with hamstring injuries all season. He was also terrible there in 368 innings for Atlanta across 2022 and 2023 though Unless the return is a starting pitcher, who can start a playoff game, then there is nothing gained by trading Grissom. That is what he cost. It is doubtful that could happen now, so best to ride it out with him and hope he ends up providing 5-6 of being a lineup fixture.
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Post by scottysmalls on Jul 8, 2024 17:16:40 GMT -5
2022 was a year and a half ago. The story says that SS is his natural position, that he moved from 2b to cf because they needed a cf not because he was bad at cf, and that his 2b defense is better than his cf defense. He has -9 OAA at SS in about 330 career innings, which is Kiké-level bad. But he's +8 OAA at 2B in 1300 IP. He has +4 OAA at CF but both DRS and UZR hate him in the outfield.
He's basically a poor man's Rafaela, with perhaps a better median projection but a lower ceiling for his bat; he is massively redundant for 2025 and 2026; he would not be a cheap addition; and once again we are running up against the fact that the Red Sox cannot be improved through a trade for a position player. This is nitpicky because I agree with your end takeaway that acquiring him doesn't make sense, but I'd push back on the idea that his bat has a lower ceiling than Rafaela's. The prospect reports I can find generally liked him better as a hitter, and he did put up a 136 wRC+ in 60 games in 2022. Agree in terms of the defensive capabilities he's like a poor man's lefty Rafaela.
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Post by scottysmalls on Jul 8, 2024 17:20:26 GMT -5
He was also terrible there in 368 innings for Atlanta across 2022 and 2023 though Unless the return is a starting pitcher, who can start a playoff game, then there is nothing gained by trading Grissom. That is what he cost. It is doubtful that could happen now, so best to ride it out with him and hope he ends up providing 5-6 of being a lineup fixture. I don't agree with the logic that because Grissom cost one thing 6 months ago you should not move him unless he returns the same thing. His value has changed, both in a vacuum since he's been bad, injured, and lost half a year of control (we can quibble about how much his value has dropped but it has), and in relative terms to the Red Sox as they have had more viable 2B candidates emerge. He might never be as valuable as he was when we acquired him, and the GM needs to make a bet around that probability vs whatever alternative he could return us in a trade.
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Post by julyanmorley on Jul 8, 2024 17:43:07 GMT -5
Grissom is a tricky one to trade. The teams that want him in the majors likely aren't going to want to give up prospects, and in terms of major league return you're probably not gonna do better than like the last two arb years of a non-star reliever.
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Post by rkarp on Jul 8, 2024 17:46:27 GMT -5
Unless the return is a starting pitcher, who can start a playoff game, then there is nothing gained by trading Grissom. That is what he cost. It is doubtful that could happen now, so best to ride it out with him and hope he ends up providing 5-6 of being a lineup fixture. I don't agree with the logic that because Grissom cost one thing 6 months ago you should not move him unless he returns the same thing. His value has changed, both in a vacuum since he's been bad, injured, and lost half a year of control (we can quibble about how much his value has dropped but it has), and in relative terms to the Red Sox as they have had more viable 2B candidates emerge. He might never be as valuable as he was when we acquired him, and the GM needs to make a bet around that probability vs whatever alternative he could return us in a trade. wasn't the true value of the Grissom deal shedding a large salary? hindsight being 20/20, here we are looking for pitching and Sale is more than likely starting the all star game
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Post by incandenza on Jul 8, 2024 17:46:42 GMT -5
He has -9 OAA at SS in about 330 career innings, which is Kiké-level bad. But he's +8 OAA at 2B in 1300 IP. He has +4 OAA at CF but both DRS and UZR hate him in the outfield.
He's basically a poor man's Rafaela, with perhaps a better median projection but a lower ceiling for his bat; he is massively redundant for 2025 and 2026; he would not be a cheap addition; and once again we are running up against the fact that the Red Sox cannot be improved through a trade for a position player. This is nitpicky because I agree with your end takeaway that acquiring him doesn't make sense, but I'd push back on the idea that his bat has a lower ceiling than Rafaela's. The prospect reports I can find generally liked him better as a hitter, and he did put up a 136 wRC+ in 60 games in 2022. Agree in terms of the defensive capabilities he's like a poor man's lefty Rafaela. I hesitated when I typed that line, so I get your point. But Chisholm is over 1500 PAs into his major league career and has a 103 wRC+; it's 104 the last two seasons in 750 PA; and that 136 in 2022 came in just a 241 PA sample. He's 26. I'm willing to consider him a known commodity at this point.
Rafaela is not, which cuts both ways; he has an 82 wRC+ in 414 career PAs, and maybe that'll turn out to be what he is as a hitter. But he's also been steadily improving: by month this season his wRC+ has gone 46, 88, 106, 165. Where does that trend level off? Does it reverse? I don't think we know yet, but the upside seems pretty good.
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Post by ematz1423 on Jul 8, 2024 17:50:18 GMT -5
I don't agree with the logic that because Grissom cost one thing 6 months ago you should not move him unless he returns the same thing. His value has changed, both in a vacuum since he's been bad, injured, and lost half a year of control (we can quibble about how much his value has dropped but it has), and in relative terms to the Red Sox as they have had more viable 2B candidates emerge. He might never be as valuable as he was when we acquired him, and the GM needs to make a bet around that probability vs whatever alternative he could return us in a trade. wasn't the true value of the Grissom deal shedding a large salary? hindsight being 20/20, here we are looking for pitching and Sale is more than likely starting the all star game No if the sox wanted to straight up shed salary they would have dumped sale off somewhere for a nothing prospect and maybe paid half his salary rather than all of sales salary. Grissom was and perhaps still is a legitimate young building block type of player. It hasn't worked out at all yet but he's still just 23 years old. At this point I'd rather just roll the dice grissom gets healthy and becomes the player we all hoped he could be at the time if the trade.
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Post by Foulke_In_Athol on Jul 8, 2024 18:16:36 GMT -5
wasn't the true value of the Grissom deal shedding a large salary? hindsight being 20/20, here we are looking for pitching and Sale is more than likely starting the all star game No if the sox wanted to straight up shed salary they would have dumped sale off somewhere for a nothing prospect and maybe paid half his salary rather than all of sales salary. Grissom was and perhaps still is a legitimate young building block type of player. It hasn't worked out at all yet but he's still just 23 years old. At this point I'd rather just roll the dice grissom gets healthy and becomes the player we all hoped he could be at the time if the trade. If Jarren Duran and Tanner Houck have taught us anything, it's don't give up on a talented youngster because of a bad/injury riddled or even completely lost season.
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Post by pappyman99 on Jul 8, 2024 18:20:17 GMT -5
Lugo and Jordan seems like a sensible enough trade for Eovaldi?
I don’t love it but seems right value wise
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Post by wOBA Fett on Jul 8, 2024 18:53:23 GMT -5
Lugo and Jordan seems like a sensible enough trade for Eovaldi? I don’t love it but seems right value wise No way Texas sells that low for Evoladi. Their current offer probably starts with Bleis.
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