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Post by dirtywaterinla on Jul 16, 2024 15:28:41 GMT -5
Verducci says Orioles and Dodgers are putting together big prospect package offers for Skubal Wouldn't even want to see what the package the Sox would have to put together to beat what the Orioles could offer. Is the Dodgers farm system any good still? I could look it up I guess but it seems like at some point their luck needs to dry up when it comes to prospects. I’ve had the same thoughts on the Dodgers. I’d have to look but you have to think their system is on the brink if they do another deal like this.
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Post by scottysmalls on Jul 16, 2024 15:45:16 GMT -5
Verducci says Orioles and Dodgers are putting together big prospect package offers for Skubal Wouldn't even want to see what the package the Sox would have to put together to beat what the Orioles could offer. Is the Dodgers farm system any good still? I could look it up I guess but it seems like at some point their luck needs to dry up when it comes to prospects. I do not think the Dodgers could really compete with the Orioles if the Orioles truly want to send a big offer
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Post by julyanmorley on Jul 16, 2024 15:51:46 GMT -5
It wouldn't be the worst thing in the world if I didn't have to worry about Samuel Basallo
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Post by awalkinthepark on Jul 16, 2024 15:52:21 GMT -5
This is now twice in the last week+ that Breslow has specifically named Grissom as someone they're leaning on for the 2nd half. I really doubt he's gearing up to trade for a 2b.
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Jul 16, 2024 15:53:22 GMT -5
Wouldn't even want to see what the package the Sox would have to put together to beat what the Orioles could offer. Is the Dodgers farm system any good still? I could look it up I guess but it seems like at some point their luck needs to dry up when it comes to prospects. I do not think the Dodgers could really compete with the Orioles if the Orioles truly want to send a big offer Seems like the same could probably be said for the rest of the league. In a sense, I wouldn't hate the Orioles giving some massive offer of multiple top guys in an offer for Skubal. Their farm pipeline is scary right now.
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Post by julyanmorley on Jul 16, 2024 15:55:03 GMT -5
This is now twice in the last week+ that Breslow has specifically named Grissom as someone they're leaning on for the 2nd half. I really doubt he's gearing up to trade for a 2b. I guess he's headed back to the majors, too. I was thinking he was gonna finish the year in AAA.
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Jul 16, 2024 15:55:12 GMT -5
This is now twice in the last week+ that Breslow has specifically named Grissom as someone they're leaning on for the 2nd half. I really doubt he's gearing up to trade for a 2b. Short of trading for a legit top 5 2nd baseman in the league which is highly unlikely it probably is best for the Sox to just stand pat at 2nd. They have a plethora of decent options for 2nd base going forward. Doesn't seem all that worth it to make a move for a league average 2nd base type.
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Jul 16, 2024 15:56:58 GMT -5
This is now twice in the last week+ that Breslow has specifically named Grissom as someone they're leaning on for the 2nd half. I really doubt he's gearing up to trade for a 2b. I guess he's headed back to the majors, too. I was thinking he was gonna finish the year in AAA. I'd give him the full rehab assignment, he probably needs it badly at this point. I have a hard time seeing him being MLB ready after just a week or so of minor league ABs. I was of the mindset he probably does finish the year in AAA.
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Post by scottysmalls on Jul 16, 2024 16:04:21 GMT -5
If they're committed to Rafaela primarily at SS the rest of the way, which I think they kind of need to be with the outfielders they have, a Grissom/Hamilton platoon at 2B the rest of the way is fine.
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asm18
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Post by asm18 on Jul 16, 2024 16:17:24 GMT -5
If they're committed to Rafaela primarily at SS the rest of the way, which I think they kind of need to be with the outfielders they have, a Grissom/Hamilton platoon at 2B the rest of the way is fine. Kinda wondering about something like this: Vs L 1. Duran LF (L) 2. Refsnyder DH 3. O’Neill RF 4. Devers 3B (L) 5. Wong C 6. Casas 1B (L)* [when he returns] 7. Romy SS 8. Grissom 2B 9. Rafaela CF -> switch to SS for righties when you start pinch hitting dudes Reese, Hamilton, Abreu, Yoshida Let’s you use utilize Ceddanne at CF at least part of the time
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Jul 16, 2024 16:23:01 GMT -5
Verducci says Orioles and Dodgers are putting together big prospect package offers for Skubal Wouldn't even want to see what the package the Sox would have to put together to beat what the Orioles could offer. Is the Dodgers farm system any good still? I could look it up I guess but it seems like at some point their luck needs to dry up when it comes to prospects. The LAD farm system is a lot like the MFY farm system. Perennially overrated.
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Post by blizzards39 on Jul 16, 2024 18:47:09 GMT -5
Not a chance rays take this deal. Both Eflin and Fairbanks are worth a top prospect. Not one of big 3 but think Cespedws or Campbell as a starting point. Plus a depth piece or 2. I think rays would ask for teel or bleis, but you could probably get it done with Campbell, Cespedes one of Perales, Fitts or sandlin and maybe a 4th lower end guy they like I wouldn't be a good GM especially around deadline time as I'm not seeing it myself. 5 seasons of Abreu to me is worth more than Eflin for 1.5, especially when you take into account Eflin's contract was backloaded to pay 18M in the final season. Which that's not a terrible amount for a pitcher of his caliber but it's also not a bargain if dealing Abreu. If the Rays don't deal Eflin this deadline they more than likely are this offseason as I'm sure they don't want to pay him that. On top of that they dont have room. Rays rotation next season. Mclanahan stud 1 Bradley stud 2 Pepiot Baz Spings / Rasmusen Littel
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Post by LoneStarSox on Jul 16, 2024 20:42:19 GMT -5
Wouldn't even want to see what the package the Sox would have to put together to beat what the Orioles could offer. Is the Dodgers farm system any good still? I could look it up I guess but it seems like at some point their luck needs to dry up when it comes to prospects. The LAD farm system is a lot like the MFY farm system. Perennially overrated. dodgers farm is meh. Two top 100 guys in the 50-100 range in Rushing (C) and DePaula (19 y/o OF) and then some solid yet unspectacular pitching in the high minors.
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Post by dirtywaterinla on Jul 16, 2024 20:58:20 GMT -5
The LAD farm system is a lot like the MFY farm system. Perennially overrated. dodgers farm is meh. Two top 100 guys in the 50-100 range in Rushing (C) and DePaula (19 y/o OF) and then some solid yet unspectacular pitching in the high minors. Yeah, they could get Crochet if they really wanted, but not Skubal.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jul 16, 2024 23:44:35 GMT -5
I believe this will be the most active trade deadline in years, maybe ever, here's why:
First off, we should have the usual buyers and sellers with teams trying to improve their playoff picture vs teams trying to improve their future. That shouldn't change.
This year though we have a new factor to consider. The new reduction in total prospects a team can have. Teams just drafted 20+ players which means there's going to be players cut equal to players signed. I expect an infusion of trade in the 3 or 4 for 1 mold. Team with deeper systems trading to teams with shallow systems. I'm not talking about top 100 types, more like 3 or 4 'Cs for a B.
Innings will be a prime factor, less pitchers means more innings per pitcher and hence, more arm issues. Teams that just drafted pitchers that can give them innings this year should have an advantage because they can trade innings and replace them with signings.
This might also cause some delay in draft signing announcements.
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Post by dirtywaterinla on Jul 17, 2024 0:18:15 GMT -5
I believe this will be the most active trade deadline in years, maybe ever, here's why: First off, we should have the usual buyers and sellers with teams trying to improve their playoff picture vs teams trying to improve their future. That shouldn't change. This year though we have a new factor to consider. The new reduction in total prospects a team can have. Teams just drafted 20+ players which means there's going to be players cut equal to players signed. I expect an infusion of trade in the 3 or 4 for 1 mold. Team with deeper systems trading to teams with shallow systems. I'm not talking about top 100 types, more like 3 or 4 'Cs for a B. Innings will be a prime factor, less pitchers means more innings per pitcher and hence, more arm issues. Teams that just drafted pitchers that can give them innings this year should have an advantage because they can trade innings and replace them with signings. This might also cause some delay in draft signing announcements. Wait, are you saying that teams can trade players they just drafted but have yet to come to contract terms with? If so, can someone clarify what the rules are around this? My assumption is that you can’t trade a newly drafted player if they haven’t signed a contract with the team seeing as that if there’s no ink on paper, what gives you the trading rights over that player?
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jul 17, 2024 3:11:40 GMT -5
I believe this will be the most active trade deadline in years, maybe ever, here's why: First off, we should have the usual buyers and sellers with teams trying to improve their playoff picture vs teams trying to improve their future. That shouldn't change. This year though we have a new factor to consider. The new reduction in total prospects a team can have. Teams just drafted 20+ players which means there's going to be players cut equal to players signed. I expect an infusion of trade in the 3 or 4 for 1 mold. Team with deeper systems trading to teams with shallow systems. I'm not talking about top 100 types, more like 3 or 4 'Cs for a B. Innings will be a prime factor, less pitchers means more innings per pitcher and hence, more arm issues. Teams that just drafted pitchers that can give them innings this year should have an advantage because they can trade innings and replace them with signings. This might also cause some delay in draft signing announcements. Wait, are you saying that teams can trade players they just drafted but have yet to come to contract terms with? If so, can someone clarify what the rules are around this? My assumption is that you can’t trade a newly drafted player if they haven’t signed a contract with the team seeing as that if there’s no ink on paper, what gives you the trading rights over that player? No, I am saying somebody in, somebody else out. That can't be the recently drafted. In the offseason, if you leave someone off the 40 man, you might still keep him if nobody claims him. This is final, roster filled is roster filled. You can't sign a new draftee until you lose somebody else.
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Post by bloomstaxonomy on Jul 17, 2024 9:22:59 GMT -5
I looked at any SP with 1 or 2 years of control left on a team under .500. Here are my preferences at the deadline, ranked in order of...uhh...preference. Eovaldi (purely for vibes and leadership alone, never mind his good stats and peripherals) Heaney (I tend to like players the Sox were keen on in the past; they obviously liked him in the 22-23 offseason) Flaherty (can't argue with the results; has great control but I'm a little scared his HRs could go bonkers in Fenway) Kikuchi (it's an old-fashioned sentiment, but it would be nice to add a lefty to the rotation and he is still fairly effective) Gray (1.5 years left and only 32, there might be another level Bailey could unlock, though you could say the same for anyone) Not interested in any other players in the aforementioned bucket. If I expanded my list by adding SPs with 1 or 2 years of control on teams hovering around .500, I'd add guys like Eflin and Manaea, both of which I'd actually put pretty high up on the list. Been spending the All-Star break looking at Baseball Savant and BRef and whatnot. I've narrowed this list down to Eovaldi, Eflin, and Flaherty. Not sure how much any of the other guys move the needle. Eovaldi needs 62 more innings for a $20mil player option* to vest in 2025; I'd say it's a borderline case. After the trade deadline in 2018, he pitched 52 innings in 11 starts. Do they want to risk having that much money tied up in 2025? I think I would. Would he even take it? Probably? Especially because he's familiar with Boston and 62 more innings this year means he did well (plush he's a fan favorite). He might be able to make more on the open market but after the 22-23 offseason debacle from which he ultimately benefitted with a ring, he might choose to further endear himself to the city. If a situation unfolds where Eovaldi does very well and the Sox make a deep playoff run, it will (rightfully or wrongfully) further damage the perception of the end of Bloom's tenure. *I think an important question is, would the Sox prefer to have the contract of an acquired SP end after 2024? If so, Jack Flaherty is clearly your guy imo. If they don't mind slotting the acquisition into the rotation in 2025 (and most likely ending all hope of a Burners signing or any other SP signing), then they can remain open to guys like Eflin and (maybe) Eovaldi. The rotation for 2025 as I see it includes: Houck Crawford Giolito Bello ?? Pivetta is a free agent. I see him more of a plan B if they stand pat at the deadline and prefer not to sign any other options in the offseason. Maybe he gives them a discount. I do get the feeling that he isn't returning, but it's only a feeling. He'll be 32 next season and is remarkably consistent albeit somewhat frustrating at times. He just hasn't been able to unlock that next level. So the ?? becomes Eflin or Eovaldi or Pivetta or, less likely, Burnes. Fitts is not ready for primetime. There are no other real internal options. They're already trying to upgrade Criswell, who has performed admirably in his role, so I don't think he has much of a future here in the long term other than what he already is. Whitlock will be recovering from his injury. Who knows when he will be ready? He has already had durability issues separate from his second major surgery. He has never exceeded 78 IP. I don't think it'd be smart to rely on him to lock down the 5th spot in the rotation. I like the guy and he's great insurance to have, but I wouldn't be surprised if he works his way back in the bullpen with an eye on a starting role in 2026. All of this is to say: Do the Red Sox want to lock in a full rotation in 2025 now or do they want to keep their options open? And that might dictate the deadline.
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Jul 17, 2024 9:30:39 GMT -5
I can't see Eovaldi picking up that option if he is healthy. He won't have the QO attached to him this time around and almost assuredly can make more in guaranteed money on a contract this offseason than one year and $20M. The Sonny Gray contract 3/75 may be a decent benchmark for what he'd be looking at, perhaps not quite that much but something in that ballpark.
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Post by bloomstaxonomy on Jul 17, 2024 9:44:00 GMT -5
It's hard to find a recent comp, honestly. For pitchers who are coming off their age 34 (or older) season, there are a ton of 1/10 (Kluber, etc.) and 2/24 deals (Maeda, etc.) and then you have the Scherzers and Verlanders of the world making 3/130 or 2/86. I think it's likely, but he made 2/34 (yes, with the QO) two years ago. He could play 1 season for $20mil and then sign another contract (with or without a QO, depending on how 2025 goes).
Edit: Sonny Gray was a year younger coming off a 5.4 bWAR season and 184 IP. Like I said, it's hard to find a recent comp, but I don't see him anywhere close to 3/75.
Some guys just want to stay. Sometimes the market plays out oddly. I think you made a good point though.
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Post by scottysmalls on Jul 17, 2024 10:16:04 GMT -5
Bored at work so here's my trade deadline starting pitcher wish list power ranking assuming these teams sell* (based on combination of expected cost to acquire, value, personal flare):
1) Max Scherzer 2) Chris Bassitt 3) Erick Fedde 4) Zach Eflin 5) Nate Eovaldi
*I still lean towards the Rangers don't actually sell, and the Blue Jays said they are keeping everyone controlled beyond this year but I ignored that
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asm18
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Post by asm18 on Jul 17, 2024 10:19:12 GMT -5
AL White Sox Crochet (2.5 years - ARB) Fedde (1.5 years - 7.5 mil AAV) A’s Paul Blackburn (IL) - (1.5 years - ARB) Angels Tyler Anderson (1.5 years - 13 mil AAV) Griffin Canning (1.5 years - ARB) Reid Detmers (AAA) - (3 years - ARb eligible after this year) Tigers Jack Flaherty (RENTAL) Tarik Skubal - GODFATHER OFFERS ONLY (New addition - 2.5 years ARB)Blue Jays Kikuchi (RENTAL) Chris Bassitt (1.5 years - 22 mil AAV) Rangers*** [DEFENDING CHAMPS - could theoretically not sell] Nate Eovaldi (rental*** - it’s a weird contract) not eligible for Qualifying Offer Max Scherzer (rental - FULL NO TRADE CLAUSE) not eligible for Qualifying Offer Lorenzen (rental) Heaney (rental) Rays Zach Efflin (1.5 years - 18 mil AAV next year) Zack Littell (1.5 years - ARBj A few weeks ago the NL was quite muddled. That has started to shift - how does this list look when you add likely (or possible) NL sellers? Marlins ? (Everyone is either hurt or under quite a bit of team control) Rockies Cal Quantril (1.5 years - Arb) German Marquez? (1.5 years - 10 mil AAV - literally just came back from TJ) Nats ? (Everyone is either hurt or under quite a bit of team control… or Patrick Corbin) Cubs Jamison Taillon (2.5 years - 18 mil AAV) Giants Blake Snell (RENTAL…? Would be about 9-10 mil AAV rest of 2024 - has 2025 player option that is about 28-29 AAV but half is deferred until 2027. Cannot be QO’d this winter…) Alex Cobb (RENTAL - finishing rehab soon) Robbie Ray (finishing rehab soon - could opt out after this year but otherwise 2.5 years left at 24 mil AAV) Reds Frankie Montas (RENTAL)
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Post by beavertontim on Jul 17, 2024 10:41:14 GMT -5
FWIW Bleis + —->. Fedde Anything cheap ——-> Turner Lugo, Sogard, Early ——-> India Abreu, Valdez, Dalbec, Meidroth ———-> Eflin, Fairbanks Id be nervous that Bleis deal would be the next Tatis for Shields trade. Seems like all these proposals would be under pays based on how trade deadline deals usually go. I don't think we get any of the pitchers noted above without much more prospect pain. I don't thing a big splash deadline deal is right for this team. Maybe a backend starter for a teens level prospect, but nothing more. Spend in the FA would in the off season.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 17, 2024 11:39:14 GMT -5
The more I think about it the more I've come to these conclusions:
The Big 3 are off the table. I would also keep Campbell and eventually Montgomery once he's officially in the organization off the table.
Perales and that young catcher Garcia are likely staying put given their injuries.
The only real other major hesitation I'd have is that young SS Arias who could be needed well down the road if Mayer struggles to needs to be shifted to 3b eventually.
But beyond that I'd be open for business. Nick Yorke is an obvious candidate to be moved given the presence of both Grissom and Campbell. He's a starting 2b on a lot of major league teams soon.
Meidroth could potentially start for a 2nd division team although he most likely winds up a utility man.
Cespedes is an attractive player to acquire for down the road. Blaze Jordan could even be a player of interest.
Teams looking for outfielders could well be attracted to Bleis, Allan Castro, or Jhostnyxon Garcia.
Brooks Brannon would be an attractive catching target.
Beyond Perales the pitching is not quite as deep but between Sandlin, Fitts, or Cruz-Rodriguez and Portes, there are pitchers of interest.
I suppose if a pitcher is the target one of those guys would be part of the return. I'd guess it wouldnt be Fitts or Wiki Gonzalez based on their struggles, but who knows?
The point is they have a lot of attractive talent on the table to be able to make a major deal, even Crotchet, although less likely.
They have serious depth they can trade from without touching their top 5 or thinning out the system.
This isnt a call to br reckless but rather a realization that they have a lot of attractive pieces and not that many needs to fill.
Frankly I dont see the next Pedro available or a Manny like RH bat so i see no need to trade from the top tier. They can package some off that 6 - 20 talent and come away getting what they need without wrecking the system although I'm sure the prospect hugger in me will howl in protest when it does happen.
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Post by dirtywaterinla on Jul 17, 2024 11:47:21 GMT -5
I looked at any SP with 1 or 2 years of control left on a team under .500. Here are my preferences at the deadline, ranked in order of...uhh...preference. Eovaldi (purely for vibes and leadership alone, never mind his good stats and peripherals) Heaney (I tend to like players the Sox were keen on in the past; they obviously liked him in the 22-23 offseason) Flaherty (can't argue with the results; has great control but I'm a little scared his HRs could go bonkers in Fenway) Kikuchi (it's an old-fashioned sentiment, but it would be nice to add a lefty to the rotation and he is still fairly effective) Gray (1.5 years left and only 32, there might be another level Bailey could unlock, though you could say the same for anyone) Not interested in any other players in the aforementioned bucket. If I expanded my list by adding SPs with 1 or 2 years of control on teams hovering around .500, I'd add guys like Eflin and Manaea, both of which I'd actually put pretty high up on the list. Been spending the All-Star break looking at Baseball Savant and BRef and whatnot. I've narrowed this list down to Eovaldi, Eflin, and Flaherty. Not sure how much any of the other guys move the needle. Eovaldi needs 62 more innings for a $20mil player option* to vest in 2025; I'd say it's a borderline case. After the trade deadline in 2018, he pitched 52 innings in 11 starts. Do they want to risk having that much money tied up in 2025? I think I would. Would he even take it? Probably? Especially because he's familiar with Boston and 62 more innings this year means he did well (plush he's a fan favorite). He might be able to make more on the open market but after the 22-23 offseason debacle from which he ultimately benefitted with a ring, he might choose to further endear himself to the city. If a situation unfolds where Eovaldi does very well and the Sox make a deep playoff run, it will (rightfully or wrongfully) further damage the perception of the end of Bloom's tenure. *I think an important question is, would the Sox prefer to have the contract of an acquired SP end after 2024? If so, Jack Flaherty is clearly your guy imo. If they don't mind slotting the acquisition into the rotation in 2025 (and most likely ending all hope of a Burners signing or any other SP signing), then they can remain open to guys like Eflin and (maybe) Eovaldi. The rotation for 2025 as I see it includes: Houck Crawford Giolito Bello ?? Pivetta is a free agent. I see him more of a plan B if they stand pat at the deadline and prefer not to sign any other options in the offseason. Maybe he gives them a discount. I do get the feeling that he isn't returning, but it's only a feeling. He'll be 32 next season and is remarkably consistent albeit somewhat frustrating at times. He just hasn't been able to unlock that next level. So the ?? becomes Eflin or Eovaldi or Pivetta or, less likely, Burnes. Fitts is not ready for primetime. There are no other real internal options. They're already trying to upgrade Criswell, who has performed admirably in his role, so I don't think he has much of a future here in the long term other than what he already is. Whitlock will be recovering from his injury. Who knows when he will be ready? He has already had durability issues separate from his second major surgery. He has never exceeded 78 IP. I don't think it'd be smart to rely on him to lock down the 5th spot in the rotation. I like the guy and he's great insurance to have, but I wouldn't be surprised if he works his way back in the bullpen with an eye on a starting role in 2026. All of this is to say: Do the Red Sox want to lock in a full rotation in 2025 now or do they want to keep their options open? And that might dictate the deadline. Great take. I’d personally add Taillon to this list as well. Flaherty does give me some reservation with the back scare and how awful he was with Baltimore down the stretch last season. If the team were to get Eovaldi and his option vests, I don’t think that’s a bad or cumbersome thing. Eflin would be a solid add, but I just think the Rays would ask for a premium to trade him within the division. Going back to Taillon, I think this is the most realistic option. He’s a solid #4 who’s familiar with the AL East and has a relatively reasonable deal with two years left. I also think the Cubs are more likely to sell than the Rangers (unless they completely tank before the deadline) and the Craig connection to the Cubs should certainly help discussions. And as I’ve noted elsewhere, I think the only frontline free agentSP options they have a true shot at in the offseason is Fried. I feel very strongly the O’s will figure out a way to keep Burnes and as much as I love Roki, it’s hard not to imagine him being a Dodger.
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