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Post by scottysmalls on Jul 18, 2024 11:14:44 GMT -5
BP's drop to 32 was before the year coming off his injured/down 2023 season. They just released their midseason update yesterday but I'm not a subscriber, does anyone know where Mayer placed in that one? They moved him up to 15. The knocks on him are mostly the same: swing and miss on offspeed and questions around his SS D. They also said he might wind up at 2B which seems extremely unlikely to me. But yeah trading him just makes zero sense to me at this point. Yeah so to the original question - it is not true that Mayer has dropped from his top 20 status. FG is the only place that doesn't have him there, but they never did and his trajectory in their rankings is also upwards. If you're betting his value peaked I guess you should trade him I just don't see any evidence for why Breslow & co would bet on that.
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Jul 18, 2024 11:19:46 GMT -5
I'm not saying that Mayer or really anyone should be off the table in trade talks, they should at least hear any and all offers. If you can get Skubal for Mayer, you have to consider it. However for a RP, no way I don't care how good said RP is. The good news is we have no reason to believe Mayer's star has dimmed at all this season in the Red Sox eyes and thus I see no reason to believe Breslow would entertain such a deal.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 18, 2024 11:34:13 GMT -5
I'm not saying that Mayer or really anyone should be off the table in trade talks, they should at least hear any and all offers. If you can get Skubal for Mayer, you have to consider it. However for a RP, no way I don't care how good said RP is. The good news is we have no reason to believe Mayer's star has dimmed at all this season in the Red Sox eyes and thus I see no reason to believe Breslow would entertain such a deal. Agree. Mason is awesome but there's no way I'm hell I'd trade Mayer in a deal for him. The Red Sox' current closer is doing just fine. And next year they have another experienced effective closer who should be completely healthy taking over. And if Hendrok cant hack it theyll find a viable closer. What they havent had is stability since Xander left. They need Mayer. I dont see the Sox as that deep at SS in the system. They have Rafaela who ideally would be in CF and likely will be next season. They have Story whose health can be relied upon. We'll see how his shoulder looks next season. Hamilton can play SS but he's really more of a 2b. In the minors Arias is quite promising but a long way away. Am I missing anybody of note? SS is a key position and I'd expect Mayer to anchor the SS position most of the back half of this decade at least. I anticipate he'll be an above average regular with an all star season or two and with his personality probably a big part of the clubhouse culture ss he, Anthony, and Teel graduate. I dont trade that for a 1 inning closer who could need TJS at any moment and throwing 103 that wouldn't surprise me.
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Post by threeifbaerga on Jul 18, 2024 12:13:13 GMT -5
I kind of wonder what the trade value of Crochet actually is. I read that the white Sox were asking for Spencer Jones OR a top pitching prospect from the Yankees, which, lol, and I've also ready that it's Juan Soto redux. Where did you read this? Spencer Jones is striking out in 37% of his ABs, not sure why the White Sox would target him as the centerpiece of a deal
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Jul 18, 2024 12:13:26 GMT -5
I guess we’ll see who has the better 2nd half of the decade.
If you can get Miller for less than Mayer, great. If you don’t believe elite closers are valuable, I disagree. If CB2 can make significant improvements without breaking up the big 3, also great. But if he decides that a trade target merits doing that, I would move Mayer before Anthony or Teel. Not because I don’t think Mayer is good, I just prefer the other two if it came to that. The fact that Mayer is still firmly top 20 (save for FG) reinforces that opinion for me.
Obviously, the ideal acquisition would be someone none of us has heard of, like Koji, who costs nothing and inexplicably becomes great. Maybe the new lab can do that. That would be great.
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Jul 18, 2024 12:19:08 GMT -5
I kind of wonder what the trade value of Crochet actually is. I read that the white Sox were asking for Spencer Jones OR a top pitching prospect from the Yankees, which, lol, and I've also ready that it's Juan Soto redux. Where did you read this? Spencer Jones is striking out in 37% of his ABs, not sure why the White Sox would target him as the centerpiece of a deal Haven't you heard about the mythical amazingness of Spencer Jones?! For real though if the ChiSox would take a deal headlined by Jones who is generally ranked somewhere around 80-100 range now I would call them up and see if they'd take a deal headlined by Campbell who seems to be ascending in the rankings and is actually having a season that would merit it. In regards to Jones, I'm assuming it's speculation in regards to the rumors when Cease was dealt that the ChiSox requested Jones in a deal and the Yankees said no. I would think at this point after Jones isn't exactly setting the world on fire that the ChiSox would ask for a better package than Jones.
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Post by seamus on Jul 18, 2024 12:19:31 GMT -5
If the Sox were a frontrunner on pace for 100+ wins and just wanted to solidify the bullpen for a World Series run, trading Mayer or Anthony for an elite closer would be reasonable. If you knew that Miller would remain health and elite for several years, it also might be worth trading Mayer or Anthony... but there aren't many relievers in baseball history who have sustained greatness over many years. The ones who have are hall of famers.
The Sox don't really need significant bullpen help beyond the usual minor transactions they've been doing all year to shuffle guys in and out. They need innings from the starting rotation, which means either counting on the existing guys to absolutely blow past career highs without their performance slipping or bringing in another starter to eat 60+ innings so those guys don't get too worn down.
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Jul 18, 2024 12:20:37 GMT -5
If the Sox were a frontrunner on pace for 100+ wins and just wanted to solidify the bullpen for a World Series run, trading Mayer or Anthony for an elite closer would be reasonable. If you knew that Miller would remain health and elite for several years, it also might be worth trading Mayer or Anthony... but there aren't many relievers in baseball history who have sustained greatness over many years. The ones who have are hall of famers. The Sox don't really need significant bullpen help beyond the usual minor transactions they've been doing all year to shuffle guys in and out. They need innings from the starting rotation, which means either counting on the existing guys to absolutely blow past career highs without their performance slipping or bringing in another starter to eat 60+ innings so those guys don't get too worn down. See I disagree that it would even be reasonable in these scenarios. You don't trade top 15 prospects for relief pitchers.
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Post by itinerantherb on Jul 18, 2024 13:03:03 GMT -5
I'm listening to the people who are cool on Crochet. The guy's a ticking time bomb, especially this season and I thought he was controlled for more than two extra years. Considering what the asking price will likely be, I'm also looking elsewhere. For the rotation, I'm still on Bassitt if TOR will move him. Of course they're saying they're only moving rentals but how many times can they go back to their current well and expect water to suddenly appear? There are other SPs out there but none as remarkably consistent as Bassitt. A Bassitt/Vladdy exacta would be amazing (sorry, Masa). The bigger elsewhere for me is the bullpen, where the top two tiers of available arms are Scott (MIA) and Finnegan (WAS) on one tier and far above them, there is Mason Miller. If there's one guy that I would move a Big 3 prospect for, it's Miller. I would go MM for MM. It would likely take a bit more than Marcelo to land Mason but I'm willing to explore. Re: Marcelo, it might be time to sell high on him. He's still an easy top-50 guy nationally but he's come down from his top-20 peak. He's not hitting LHP in AA and while he figures to stay at SS for a while, it's not an eye-popping, GG projection. He's still got a very high floor, which I'm not discounting. There are other SS in the system, both above him and below, so you're not robbing Peter to pay Paul. Speaking of Paul, er, Mason, he’s got lots of control (thru 2029) and is a slam-dunk closer, already an all-star (and acquitted himself just fine). A monster. He and Slaten, along with Kelly and maybe Mata, could form a nice core for the foreseeable future. Yes, RPs are notoriously fickle but there are also guys like Jansen who endure. I like Miller to endure. For this year’s stretch run you’re looking at a bullpen of: Miller Jansen Martin Slaten Bernardino Kelly Winckowski Mata* Hendriks* (Asterisks represent uncertainty with the last two guys due to injury and rust -- it's basically one of those two if everyone is healthy.) You can fill in with guys like Weissert, Booser, Anderson, Horn, etc., but not have to depend on any of them. That's a deep pen. Rare is the team that makes a deep run without a strong bullpen. Adding Miller takes us from strong to lights-out. There is a ZERO POINT ZERO ZERO ZERO percent chance the Blue Jays would trade Bassitt AND Vladdy in the division. Their fans would revolt. This is really still such a big consideration? I mean, if a team in the division offers what the front office judges to be clearly the best package, do we really expect the value optimizing machine that is a modern FO to chose a weaker package? Maybe at the extreme margin, but I'm doubtful?
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Jul 18, 2024 13:25:25 GMT -5
If the Sox were a frontrunner on pace for 100+ wins and just wanted to solidify the bullpen for a World Series run, trading Mayer or Anthony for an elite closer would be reasonable. If you knew that Miller would remain health and elite for several years, it also might be worth trading Mayer or Anthony... but there aren't many relievers in baseball history who have sustained greatness over many years. The ones who have are hall of famers. The Sox don't really need significant bullpen help beyond the usual minor transactions they've been doing all year to shuffle guys in and out. They need innings from the starting rotation, which means either counting on the existing guys to absolutely blow past career highs without their performance slipping or bringing in another starter to eat 60+ innings so those guys don't get too worn down. See I disagree that it would even be reasonable in these scenarios. You don't trade top 15 prospects for relief pitchers. I’ll go with Theo on this one… www.milb.com/news/gcs-191629886
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asm18
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Post by asm18 on Jul 18, 2024 13:31:30 GMT -5
There is a ZERO POINT ZERO ZERO ZERO percent chance the Blue Jays would trade Bassitt AND Vladdy in the division. Their fans would revolt. This is really still such a big consideration? I mean, if a team in the division offers what the front office judges to be clearly the best package, do we really expect the value optimizing machine that is a modern FO to chose a weaker package? Maybe at the extreme margin, but I'm doubtful?
It probably depends on the teams, right? Like the Dodgers and Giants have made only like a handful trades since they both moved out west (the last I believe was ‘07 in a Mark Sweeney-PTBNL swap). The Cubs and Cardinals aren’t exactly eager to trade. The Red Sox and Yankees are rare trade partners (with the exception this year being a player the Sox seemed incredibly excited to get rid of…) Trade packages aside, there’s an impediment if you’re a GM for sending Player X to one of your biggest rivals, because then your fans and ownership are getting annoyed or angry when it’s constantly in their face. Like remember how painful the Mookie Return to Fenway with the Dodgers last year was - but now imagine he went to Toronto instead and it’s happening 13 times a year… I imagine that’s the vibe if the Blue Jays sent Vladdy to us or the Yankees
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Jul 18, 2024 13:38:01 GMT -5
See I disagree that it would even be reasonable in these scenarios. You don't trade top 15 prospects for relief pitchers. I’ll go with Theo on this one… www.milb.com/news/gcs-191629886Referencing a trade almost 10 years ago doesn't really change my mind. I get your side of it, you clearly put more value on a closing pitcher than I do. To me they just don't move the needle that much.
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chaimtime
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Post by chaimtime on Jul 18, 2024 14:18:57 GMT -5
I guess we’ll see who has the better 2nd half of the decade. If you can get Miller for less than Mayer, great. If you don’t believe elite closers are valuable, I disagree. If CB2 can make significant improvements without breaking up the big 3, also great. But if he decides that a trade target merits doing that, I would move Mayer before Anthony or Teel. Not because I don’t think Mayer is good, I just prefer the other two if it came to that. The fact that Mayer is still firmly top 20 (save for FG) reinforces that opinion for me. Obviously, the ideal acquisition would be someone none of us has heard of, like Koji, who costs nothing and inexplicably becomes great. Maybe the new lab can do that. That would be great. Even beyond the value discrepancy between a reliever and an everyday shortstop, I think the biggest reason not to do the trade is that Miller’s already had multiple arm injuries. He might be the nastiest pitcher I’ve ever seen in my life, but I would be very wary of trading a top-20 (or better) prospect in all of baseball for any relief pitcher, let alone one with major health red flags.
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Post by jimoh on Jul 18, 2024 14:33:25 GMT -5
A SS name mentioned in The Athletic is Arizona's Kevin Newman. Played every day at SS for a couple months when their younger better SS was injured. Solid fielder, right around 0 OOA most years, makes few mistakes/errors. Playing 2b and 3b now. 6'1". Contact RHH with decent BA and not much power or walks, hits LHP a little better. Age 30, FA in 2025, making less than $1M (for the whole season). 1.6bWAR this year, probably from playing SS earlier
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Post by dirtywaterinla on Jul 18, 2024 15:21:50 GMT -5
I guess we’ll see who has the better 2nd half of the decade. If you can get Miller for less than Mayer, great. If you don’t believe elite closers are valuable, I disagree. If CB2 can make significant improvements without breaking up the big 3, also great. But if he decides that a trade target merits doing that, I would move Mayer before Anthony or Teel. Not because I don’t think Mayer is good, I just prefer the other two if it came to that. The fact that Mayer is still firmly top 20 (save for FG) reinforces that opinion for me. Obviously, the ideal acquisition would be someone none of us has heard of, like Koji, who costs nothing and inexplicably becomes great. Maybe the new lab can do that. That would be great. Even beyond the value discrepancy between a reliever and an everyday shortstop, I think the biggest reason not to do the trade is that Miller’s already had multiple arm injuries. He might be the nastiest pitcher I’ve ever seen in my life, but I would be very wary of trading a top-20 (or better) prospect in all of baseball for any relief pitcher, let alone one with major health red flags. I hope he stays healthy for the sake of baseball, but man, I feel like this dude’s arm is gonna snap off in like a year.
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Post by dirtywaterinla on Jul 18, 2024 15:23:43 GMT -5
A SS name mentioned in The Athletic is Arizona's Kevin Newman. Played every day at SS for a couple months when their younger better SS was injured. Solid fielder, right around 0 OOA most years, makes few mistakes/errors. Playing 2b and 3b now. 6'1". Contact RHH with decent BA and not much power or walks, hits LHP a little better. Age 30, FA in 2025, making less than $1M (for the whole season). 1.6bWAR this year, probably from playing SS earlier Interesting name for sure, but I wonder if he’d really be an improvement over Romy.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Jul 18, 2024 15:32:29 GMT -5
A SS name mentioned in The Athletic is Arizona's Kevin Newman. Played every day at SS for a couple months when their younger better SS was injured. Solid fielder, right around 0 OOA most years, makes few mistakes/errors. Playing 2b and 3b now. 6'1". Contact RHH with decent BA and not much power or walks, hits LHP a little better. Age 30, FA in 2025, making less than $1M (for the whole season). 1.6bWAR this year, probably from playing SS earlier Along similar lines, Nick Ahmed (Springfield’s own) is a glove-first Pokey/John McDonald type who could be a nice late-inning replacement with Ceddanne in CF.
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Post by oldfaithful2019 on Jul 18, 2024 16:12:48 GMT -5
A SS name mentioned in The Athletic is Arizona's Kevin Newman. Played every day at SS for a couple months when their younger better SS was injured. Solid fielder, right around 0 OOA most years, makes few mistakes/errors. Playing 2b and 3b now. 6'1". Contact RHH with decent BA and not much power or walks, hits LHP a little better. Age 30, FA in 2025, making less than $1M (for the whole season). 1.6bWAR this year, probably from playing SS earlier Along similar lines, Nick Ahmed (Springfield’s own) is a glove-first Pokey/John McDonald type who could be a nice late-inning replacement with Ceddanne in CF. Either of Newman/ Ahmed would be more useful to the roster than Westbrook is. Having a reliable if unspectacular defender option for SS would be a good tool to have in the box. Otherwise, I hope the clear priority is to obtain a starter and reliever.
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Post by dirtywaterinla on Jul 18, 2024 16:21:36 GMT -5
Ok so, this a theoretical list of who I think would be available and makes practical sense as far as value and need if the Rangers and DBacks fall out of contention in a week (also cause I’m immensely bored without baseball games right now):
RH 1B & OF:
Mark Canha, Tigers 1B/COF Luis Robert Jr., White Sox, OF Adolis Garcia, Rangers, OF Christian Walker, Diamondbacks, 1B
SP:
Zach Eflin, Rays Eric Fedde, White Sox Jameson Taillon, Cubs Nathan Eovaldi, Rangers Michael Lorenzen, Rangers Reid Detmers, Angels
Who’s on the trading block (more like who I’m ok with trading in particular scenarios): HEADLINERS: Wilyer Abreu Nick Yorke Khristian Campbell
SECONDARY PIECES: Chase Meidroth David Sandlin Richard Fitts Matthew Lugo Blaze Jordan Hunter Dobbins Wilkelman Gonzalez Connelly Early Elmer Rodriguez Cutter Coffey
DREAM SCENARIO:
Red Sox get Robert Jr. and Nathan Eovaldi. With some remaining unknowns about Casas, I think it would huge to get Robert Jr. who would absolutely mash and give you GG defense on the grass. This would also free up TON for a trade that has just been really bad lately and you could hopefully get 45+ prospect out of. Eovaldi is the most obvious choice ever given his track record in Boston and will likely be sticking around next season.
REALISTIC SCENARIO:
Red Sox get Mark Canha and Jameson Taillon. Canha has proved himself more than adequate against LHP this season (.879 OPS), can give you a much needed proven 1B RHH bat and would likely cost just a couple minor league wildcards. Taillon is AL East proven, a solid #4 and has 2.5 years on his deal giving the rotation the innings stability it needs. Not to mention the Breslow connection w/ the Cubs.
In all, I don’t think the Rangers will sell (they have a 4 game set against the White Sox in their 2nd series back) nor the DBacks (only 1 GB of the WC and have a 3 game set against the Cubs in their 1st series back).
I put Wilyer as piece here in the event that you somehow can get Robert Jr. or Garcia (in a package w/ Eovaldi). Otherwise, he sticks around. I think Campbell is gone too if he’s the sticking point for Robert Jr., Garcia, or possibly Walker. Sandlin I’m only okay with parting from in an Eovaldi trade, but it’s a toss up.
As far as Eflin is concerned, I just don’t think the Rays are gonna trade within the division and will greatly elevate the asking price because of that. I’m out on Fedde cause I’m not convinced that he will hold up performance or health wise the rest of this season and I think the White Sox will also get a little greedy with their asking price.
Lorenzen & Detmers I believe are backup plans if the main SP names aren’t available or too expensive in terms of ask. I think the Rangers trade Lorenzen no matter what their playoff picture is seeing they have a bunch of SP arms coming back soon as well as seeing he’s a FA after this season. With Detmers, the Angels are in clear sell mode and desperately need any prospect capital in their system. As it’s been discussed around the forum, his numbers this season aren’t pretty, but I’d have a good feeling that the pitching lab could fix him.
EDIT: RP is another obvious need but there are so many candidates is hard to wrap my head around who makes the most sense.
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Post by scottysmalls on Jul 18, 2024 16:27:51 GMT -5
Lorenzen but not Flaherty, Kikuchi, Bassitt, Heaney or Scherzer?
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Post by dirtywaterinla on Jul 18, 2024 16:35:13 GMT -5
Lorenzen but not Flaherty, Kikuchi, Bassitt, Heaney or Scherzer? Flaherty seems sketchy given recent health scares and how he bombed with the O’s in the 2nd half last season. Also, I don’t think the Blue Jays trade Bassitt as he’s one of their only stabilizing SPs and I’m out on Kikuchi seeing that if he made every start for the remainder of the season he’d reach a career high in innings and burn out in the playoffs (also he doesn’t have very impressive stuff). Heaney or Scherzer could possibly be a match, but Heaney has proven to be their only healthy pitcher all season and Scherzer would have to waive his no-trade clause to come here (not to mention also comes with health concerns).
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Post by capesox on Jul 18, 2024 16:36:44 GMT -5
I would be good with getting someone like Alex Cobb who is rehabbing and should be back in a couple of weeks. They definitely need another SP, but if the prices are too high, I wouldn't go overboard for a big name. So few sellers and lots of buyers will make it a sellers' market this year. They have depth at 2B in majors and upper minors so that would be good to trade from. Got to make an evaluation to who you think will potentially be a starting 2b going forward and then trade the other guys.
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Post by scottysmalls on Jul 18, 2024 16:40:55 GMT -5
Lorenzen but not Flaherty, Kikuchi, Bassitt, Heaney or Scherzer? Flaherty seems sketchy given recent health scares and how he bombed with the O’s in the 2nd half last season. Also, I don’t think the Blue Jays trade Bassitt as he’s one of their only stabilizing SPs and I’m out on Kikuchi seeing that if he made every start for the remainder of the season he’d reach a career high in innings and burn out in the playoffs (also he doesn’t have very impressive stuff). Heaney or Scherzer could possibly be a match, but Heaney has proven to be their only healthy pitcher all season and Scherzer would have to waive his no-trade clause to come here (not to mention also comes with health concerns). Agree to disagree, I’d rather just start Winckowski than Lorenzen. Honestly I don’t think any starter they wouldn’t use in a playoff series is worth pursuing
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Post by bcsox on Jul 18, 2024 18:13:37 GMT -5
It’s kind of like the Lou Gorman/Willie McGee where will he play situation but with regard to Mason Miller, he has been off the charts elite this year and deserves to close. He would not be the closer on this team. You can’t ask Jansen to go pitch the 8th, maybe Hendricks will when he returns but who knows.
I could get behind it if you acquire Miller and trade Jansen to the Dodgers. You are going to have to give an “A” prospect to get Miller and you might get the Dodgers to overpay with a “B+” prospect.
The time to do it would be right now as the Dodgers closers had an unbelievable meltdown weekend in Detroit last Friday-Sunday.
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Post by wanderingdude on Jul 18, 2024 18:44:39 GMT -5
I think the Red Sox are going to make trades that hurt, and hurt those of us who get attached to prospects, but that still feels like an offseason endeavor. Guys are going to cost more at the deadline, you’re paying a premium for basically 1/3 of a season, and you’re making the deal under the pressure of a set deadline. I also want those all in moves to be coupled with FA additions. Buy with prospects outside the top 4 this deadline and re-visit the big moves this offseason. It’s also a pretty heavy sellers market and i really don’t want to trade any of the top guy in this market.
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