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Post by wcsoxfan on Jul 20, 2024 14:22:07 GMT -5
Few insights/statistics on the players being mentioned (opinion in italics):
Jacob Stallings: Has a 171 wRC+ against LHP in 2024, but that comes with 17 Ks in 60 PA - much higher than his previous career K% (28.3% vs 19.3%). He's 34 with a career 96+ wRC vs LHP and has played only 1 inning of 1b in his career. It's a good outside-of-the-box idea but seems like a longshot to workout. Doesn't seem like a viable choice to have Stallings learn 1b mid-season. Could move Wong to 1b and have Stallings catch vs LHPs but spike in Ks in SSS is a concern.
Mark Canha: 145 wRC+ against LHP with slight reverse platoon splits for his career (113 wRC+ vs 115 wRC+). 35 years old with recent experience at 1b, LF and RF along with slight experience at 3b (only 13 innings since 2022). Generally looks to be an average defender at 1b (0 career OAA) and fringe-average as a corner OFer (-1 career OAA). 11.5 AAV (last season of contract) and likely to cost a viable prospect(s) in compensation. Viable option, but age and reverse career splits likely lead to a regression in performance against LHP; cost to acquire is also an issue.
Justin Turner: 130 wRC+ against LHP with near-neutral platoon splits for his career (125 wRC+ vs 126 wRC+). Triple-slash line (.230/.333/.342) seems to lowered by an unlucky BABIP (.269 vs .311 career) but a SSS reduction in average exit velocity should be noted (86.9 vs 89.7 career). 39 yo with the ability to play below average defense at 2b (-1 OAA in 49 2023 innings) and 3b (-5 OAA in 89 2023-2024 innings) and average defense at 1b (+1 OAA in 367.1 2023-2024 innings) offering positional flexibility. 13mil AAV (1 year) contract. The positional flexibility offers utility but without providing a defensive upgrade. Clear upgrade if BABIP is luck driven; less clear if it's due to a reduced EV caused by physical decline. Given past relationship and modest acquisition cost, likely the path of least resistance to acquire.
I'd assume that if the Red Sox were to acquire any of these players (or someone else) to play 1b as a RHH then Jamie Westbrook would be sent down (he's superfluous atm). If/when Vaughn Grissom returns another decision would have to be made, but that's far enough off that the issue will likely resolve itself before then.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Jul 20, 2024 14:34:07 GMT -5
Ok, I’ll slow my roll after this (Casas news has me panicked), but looking at Juan Yepez peripherals, this should be the dude Craig should go get. Probably will cost you Blaze Jordan, Chase Meidroth and maybe a wildcard pitcher, but he seems totally worth a guy you want around for the next 3 seasons off the bench/platooning. I can understand the excitement over Yepez given his 202 wRC+ in 47 PA, but that's supported by an extremely unsustainable .455! BABIP. Given his pedestrian 87.3 average EV and 5.9% barrel rate we should expect a below average MLB babip going forward (although his 41.2% hard hit rate provides some hope). Keep in mind that he was hitting only .263/.357/.438 (106 wRC+) in 319 AAA PA this season and his previous MLB stint in Saint Louis in 2023 resulted in a .183/.246/.300 (51 wRC+) stat line. He was also signed as a minor league free agent this offseason as neither the Cardinals, nor any other team, offered an MLB roster spot. Seems like he's a rather pedestrian AAA-caliber player going through a hot/lucky stretch at the MLB level. I doubt anyone will remember his name come September.
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Post by scottysmalls on Jul 20, 2024 14:50:21 GMT -5
I’d push back on the idea that Turner offers positional flexibility I really think he’s a break-glass-in-case-of-emergency only fielder at any position at this point based on the fact that that’s how the Blue Jays are using him and his defensive metrics the last couple years.
Also he is similar to Canha in that for his career he has no platoon splits though in the last couple years he has had regular ones. I’d also be more wary of him breaking down down the stretch.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 20, 2024 15:22:40 GMT -5
There could be candidates we're not even considering. If Anthony Rizzo hadnt gotten hurt, would we have heard of Ben Rice? There could be somebody who is blocked in AAA that could help.
I'd still go with Turner if there isnt a better option. I like his bat and they could always defend with Smitj later in the games. Casas might not be coming back. They need a RH bat and to strengthen the 1b position. I get that Turner isnt ideal defensively but doing nothing isnt really an option, so whether its Canha, whose bat I dont really trust, Turner or somebody else they need to look.
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Post by carmenfanzone on Jul 20, 2024 15:25:28 GMT -5
I don't see a Turner reunion happening. He practically begged to come back in the off-season and got the cold shoulder from the new FO. He's also a year older, along with his stats. Maybe I'm coloring it with my own personal bias (no, not against redheads) but I'm just not a reunion guy, especially from last-place clubs. It seemed like half the board this winter was assuming that Turner and Duvall and others would and should be back. There were a lot of departing FAs last winter and I think the only one they brought back was Joely. I was glad they opted for new blood and gave prospects the chance to win jobs. I get that Turner was a good guy in the clubhouse and that's nice but this year's clubhouse doesn't seem like it has a vacuum that it desperately needs to fill. Any guy they bring in will fit in fine if they keep winning. On the field, I'd rather see a bigger upgrade than Turner but with Vladdy off the market, there's not a lot out there at that position. Maybe there's a younger RHH who has some control left and can play more than just 1B... If only Bobby D could find a bat without so many holes in it. I do not get your position. Don't resign people because they were on a last place team? By nor resigning Turner, the Red Sox sentenced themselves to a combined 150 at bats by Dalbec and Cooper. I would have preferred Turner have those at bats. Duvall got replaced by O'Neil, not a young rookie. Not resigning Paxton means he will be pitching against us tomorrow instead of for us on Monday or Tuesday instead of Criswell. I would rather take my chances with Paxton. I was fine with the Red Sox not resigning Kluber because he sucked. But not resigning players who played relatively well for you because your team wasn't good just means you have another hole to fill. Sorry to rant about this, but I fear the Red Sox are going to do it again this off season with Pivetta and O'Neill. Regarding this trade deadline the bad news about Casas and the fact we now have to key relievers out for who knows how long is giving me pause on my previous position that the Sox should definitely be buyers. The Sox clearly needed a starter. A right handed defense first shortstop for the rest or this yer maybe. But now we may also need a right-handed bat who can platoon at first so Remy can platoon at 2nd. and possibly an 8th inning reliever. I am not sure getting all 3 is possible, at least not without giving up to much. Now I am thinking if the Sox are going to buy it should only be for someone who would have a role next year as well.
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Post by oldfaithful2019 on Jul 20, 2024 15:33:57 GMT -5
There could be candidates we're not even considering. If Anthony Rizzo hadnt gotten hurt, would we have heard of Ben Rice? There could be somebody who is blocked in AAA that could help. I'd still go with Turner if there isnt a better option. I like his bat and they could always defend with Smitj later in the games. Casas might not be coming back. They need a RH bat and to strengthen the 1b position. I get that Turner isnt ideal defensively but doing nothing isnt really an option, so whether its Canha, whose bat I dont really trust, Turner or somebody else they need to look. With the news that Casas's return is far from even guaranteed Turner just makes so much sense now. The limited role may not be his ideal but being in the middle of a pennant race should make up for that. He is another example of an upgrade over having Westbrook on the team.
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Post by oleary25 on Jul 20, 2024 17:16:45 GMT -5
I still like the idea of trading with the Blue Jays. Trades being Gauseman and Guerrero Jr or Turner and Gausman. I was looking at baseball Savant Gauseman uses a split finger and his four seamer is about 50 percent of the time . He has a slider I believe 8 percent and sinker rarely used. If he can cut down the four seamer to 30 percent and increase usage of sinker slider. He could have better results if he buys in .it would also make his really good splitter look lay up better. He eats innings and could be your 2 in a playoff series . Houck, Gausman, Crawford, with Pivetta looks pretty good for the post season. He’s not a rental either 2025 contract. What do you think it will cost prospect wise? Also remember Turner is a rental. Guerrero Jr. Isn’t a free agent until 2026.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 20, 2024 17:55:37 GMT -5
I still like the idea of trading with the Blue Jays. Trades being Gauseman and Guerrero Jr or Turner and Gausman. I was looking at baseball Savant Gauseman uses a split finger and his four seamer is about 50 percent of the time . He has a slider I believe 8 percent and sinker rarely used. If he can cut down the four seamer to 30 percent and increase usage of sinker slider. He could have better results if he buys in .it would also make his really good splitter look lay up better. He eats innings and could be your 2 in a playoff series . Houck, Gausman, Crawford, with Pivetta looks pretty good for the post season. He’s not a rental either 2025 contract. What do you think it will cost prospect wise? Remember both Turner and Guerrero Jr are rentals. Vladdy Jr is not a rental. He's under contract thru 2025.
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Post by oleary25 on Jul 20, 2024 18:47:17 GMT -5
Your right. I saw singed through 2024, but I didn’t see the arb eligible 2025 free agent 2026. I apologize and I’ll update my post.
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Post by jdb on Jul 20, 2024 18:48:26 GMT -5
Rosenthall said pregame that starter is the top priority, then RH pen and probably middle infield. Including tonight’s game we have 9 games before the deadline and all but 3 are vs division leaders right now or a game back in NY.
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Jul 20, 2024 19:38:33 GMT -5
With Martin and Slaten out, bullpen may be top need. If Pivetta and Bello throw like this. All of a sudden a 5th starter would be a need. But, just an arm. Not a stud.
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Post by finaliz3d on Jul 20, 2024 19:49:48 GMT -5
We need a lot of things honestly, a late inning reliever and starting pitcher are key, with a righty middle infielder and given that Casas could be out for even longer, I think getting a better 1B than Dom Smith might be an idea.
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Post by dcsoxfan15 on Jul 20, 2024 22:09:26 GMT -5
Jaime Westbrook and Romy Gonzalez started a game tonight for the Red Sox. That seems like a good illustration of our right handed hitting depth: rough. We also watched Greg Weissert poop himself, yet again. We need a right handed reliever.
Enter the Blue Jays. The Blue Jays are bad, and they should be looking to trade their tradeable pieces. One of those is David Robertson, who’s an obvious trade candidate with a sub 3 ERA and good Strikeout numbers.
While we’re there, let’s get the big fish and see what it would take to get Guerrero here. I’m not sure how expensive it would be. Within the division is probably gonna hurt, but he can finish the year at 1B for us and play next year at DH. I don’t know how much the Blue Jays can expect to get from a player with limited versatility like that. This is probably stupid, but it seems like a good 2 birds with one stone call to make north of the border.
Also, if the Giants don’t think they’re going anywhere this year, let’s give them a call about Ryan Walker (his savant is insane, check it out). Could be a solid addition to Slaten, Martin, Kelly, Jansen
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Post by blizzards39 on Jul 20, 2024 22:30:52 GMT -5
Jaime Westbrook and Romy Gonzalez started a game tonight for the Red Sox. That seems like a good illustration of our right handed hitting depth: rough. We also watched Greg Weissert poop himself, yet again. We need a right handed reliever. Enter the Blue Jays. The Blue Jays are bad, and they should be looking to trade their tradeable pieces. One of those is David Robertson, who’s an obvious trade candidate with a sub 3 ERA and good Strikeout numbers. While we’re there, let’s get the big fish and see what it would take to get Guerrero here. I’m not sure how expensive it would be. Within the division is probably gonna hurt, but he can finish the year at 1B for us and play next year at DH. I don’t know how much the Blue Jays can expect to get from a player with limited versatility like that. This is probably stupid, but it seems like a good 2 birds with one stone call to make north of the border. Also, if the Giants don’t think they’re going anywhere this year, let’s give them a call about Ryan Walker (his savant is insane, check it out). Could be a solid addition to Slaten, Martin, Kelly, Jansen I think you mean Chad Green??? Robertson plays for texas. I do like the idea. Although he is expensive $ wise (10M per /y), so i dout the FO goes there. As for Vlad i like the Idea. But the jays are going to be asking for 1 of the top 3 plus more. Not sure that is the correct path either.
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Post by dcsoxfan15 on Jul 20, 2024 22:45:54 GMT -5
Jaime Westbrook and Romy Gonzalez started a game tonight for the Red Sox. That seems like a good illustration of our right handed hitting depth: rough. We also watched Greg Weissert poop himself, yet again. We need a right handed reliever. Enter the Blue Jays. The Blue Jays are bad, and they should be looking to trade their tradeable pieces. One of those is David Robertson, who’s an obvious trade candidate with a sub 3 ERA and good Strikeout numbers. While we’re there, let’s get the big fish and see what it would take to get Guerrero here. I’m not sure how expensive it would be. Within the division is probably gonna hurt, but he can finish the year at 1B for us and play next year at DH. I don’t know how much the Blue Jays can expect to get from a player with limited versatility like that. This is probably stupid, but it seems like a good 2 birds with one stone call to make north of the border. Also, if the Giants don’t think they’re going anywhere this year, let’s give them a call about Ryan Walker (his savant is insane, check it out). Could be a solid addition to Slaten, Martin, Kelly, Jansen I think you mean Chad Green??? Robertson plays for texas. I do like the idea. Although he is expensive $ wise (10M per /y), so i dout the FO goes there. As for Vlad i like the Idea. But the jays are going to be asking for 1 of the top 3 plus more. Not sure that is the correct path either. Embarassing mistake on my part. Chad Green works. He’s been solid. I don’t know how much the Blue Jays can really expect for Guerrero though - he’s essentially a DH and that doesn’t usually get you too much, even if it’s a good hitter. Side note: if Texas fully falls out of it, Robertson would be a solid pickup
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Jul 20, 2024 22:53:44 GMT -5
I don't see a Turner reunion happening. He practically begged to come back in the off-season and got the cold shoulder from the new FO. He's also a year older, along with his stats. Maybe I'm coloring it with my own personal bias (no, not against redheads) but I'm just not a reunion guy, especially from last-place clubs. It seemed like half the board this winter was assuming that Turner and Duvall and others would and should be back. There were a lot of departing FAs last winter and I think the only one they brought back was Joely. I was glad they opted for new blood and gave prospects the chance to win jobs. I get that Turner was a good guy in the clubhouse and that's nice but this year's clubhouse doesn't seem like it has a vacuum that it desperately needs to fill. Any guy they bring in will fit in fine if they keep winning. On the field, I'd rather see a bigger upgrade than Turner but with Vladdy off the market, there's not a lot out there at that position. Maybe there's a younger RHH who has some control left and can play more than just 1B... If only Bobby D could find a bat without so many holes in it. I do not get your position. Don't resign people because they were on a last place team? By nor resigning Turner, the Red Sox sentenced themselves to a combined 150 at bats by Dalbec and Cooper. I would have preferred Turner have those at bats. Duvall got replaced by O'Neil, not a young rookie. Not resigning Paxton means he will be pitching against us tomorrow instead of for us on Monday or Tuesday instead of Criswell. I would rather take my chances with Paxton. I was fine with the Red Sox not resigning Kluber because he sucked. But not resigning players who played relatively well for you because your team wasn't good just means you have another hole to fill. Sorry to rant about this, but I fear the Red Sox are going to do it again this off season with Pivetta and O'Neill. Regarding this trade deadline the bad news about Casas and the fact we now have to key relievers out for who knows how long is giving me pause on my previous position that the Sox should definitely be buyers. The Sox clearly needed a starter. A right handed defense first shortstop for the rest or this yer maybe. But now we may also need a right-handed bat who can platoon at first so Remy can platoon at 2nd. and possibly an 8th inning reliever. I am not sure getting all 3 is possible, at least not without giving up to much. Now I am thinking if the Sox are going to buy it should only be for someone who would have a role next year as well. My position is that there are too many fish in the sea to keep re-signing old guys to one-year deals. If those players were any good, they would be worth more than a one-year deal. The fact that you sometimes get a good return doesn't mean that it's worth rolling the dice again on the same guys, one year later, one year older. Swapping out Duvall for O'Neill is exactly my position. O'Neill was an upside play with a GG in his trophy room and he just turned 29. Duvall will turn 36 in six weeks and unsurprisingly hasn't found a new gear this year. Turner is clearly showing his age and can barely play the field anymore but he may be the only realistic option available for RHH. I would still rather they keep searching rather than go back to a guy whose main selling point is he had a bunch of big hits for us in the past in a season I'd rather forget. I'm starting to come around to your position that this might not be the year yet but two tough losses to a team I hate filled with players I hate will do that to you. I definitely agree that they need to target players with control, which is why I like Crochet and Miller. The losses suck but the team never threw in the towel. If they had a deeper bullpen and another RH bat or two, things could be different.
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Post by ancientsoxfogey on Jul 21, 2024 5:36:46 GMT -5
We need a lot of things honestly, a late inning reliever and starting pitcher are key, with a righty middle infielder and given that Casas could be out for even longer, I think getting a better 1B than Dom Smith might be an idea. This post summarizes the quandary the front office is in, and probably complicates their thinking about whether they should buy or sell at the deadline. The argument that the front office should support this team for what they have done so far is obvious. But I'm sure part of the front office's thinking was that a large component of their "deadline acquisitions" would be the return of Casas, which now appears in jeopardy. It not only makes the team's position more tenuous, it may require them to find an additional piece of the puzzle at the deadline in order to make a legitimate run at being a threatening postseason team. I wonder if this makes the upcoming week's games all the more important, and if the Sox really don't do well, the thinking might transition back to selling, a plan for which we assume was already envisioned before the Sox pulled themselves up by their bootstraps over the previous month.
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asm18
Veteran
Posts: 2,362
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Post by asm18 on Jul 21, 2024 7:08:13 GMT -5
We need a lot of things honestly, a late inning reliever and starting pitcher are key, with a righty middle infielder and given that Casas could be out for even longer, I think getting a better 1B than Dom Smith might be an idea. This post summarizes the quandary the front office is in, and probably complicates their thinking about whether they should buy or sell at the deadline. The argument that the front office should support this team for what they have done so far is obvious. But I'm sure part of the front office's thinking was that a large component of their "deadline acquisitions" would be the return of Casas, which now appears in jeopardy. It not only makes the team's position more tenuous, it may require them to find an additional piece of the puzzle at the deadline in order to make a legitimate run at being a threatening postseason team. I wonder if this makes the upcoming week's games all the more important, and if the Sox really don't do well, the thinking might transition back to selling, a plan for which we assume was already envisioned before the Sox pulled themselves up by their bootstraps over the previous month. Their record will (and should) determine how they proceed at the deadline. But it’d be really frustrating to me if the front office would look at a team’s flaws… as a reason to not fix the team’s flaws. It’s like if you have a car that is otherwise working great, but needs a new part or two - but you say, “Well if it can’t drive as is I’m not going to try to fix it.” Unless the car is on its last legs or the cost to fix is worth more than the car itself, it’s silly not to, right?
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Post by costpet on Jul 21, 2024 7:56:01 GMT -5
After watching the last few nights, I think we should be sellers. Remember, LA didn't have Kershaw or Betts available. Even if we did make the playoffs, we are not going much further. This is not the time to go all-in. Next year is a different story. There are some great players in our farm system that can win for a long time. Don't give them up for a short term dream. The only thing lacking is good pitching. There are good pitching prospects we can obtain when we sell. That would set us up for a great future that can be sustained. Then we can be really good for a long time.
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Post by scottysmalls on Jul 21, 2024 8:02:34 GMT -5
Man people are fickle. Red Sox lose a couple games, which they were winning in the 8th inning or later, to one of the best teams in the league and that’s it, season is unfixable.
Two of their best relievers are on IL set to return, they have Martin and Slaten they probably win both games, but even if that weren’t true relief pitching is the easiest thing to add at the deadline, and even if that weren’t true these were incredibly close games and baseball has a high degree of randomness.
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Post by costpet on Jul 21, 2024 8:49:01 GMT -5
I'm not pessimistic. I'm a realist. This is not the year we can win it all. Just making the playoffs is not the goal. Getting to the WS and winning it should be the goal. With the players in our farm system, that can be done, but not this year. Bloom did a good job in compiling really good position players. He just didn't do with pitchers. By selling for young pitchers, we could have it all for a long time. That should be the goal...WS favorites every year.
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Post by patford on Jul 21, 2024 9:01:01 GMT -5
I'm not pessimistic. I'm a realist. This is not the year we can win it all. Just making the playoffs is not the goal. Getting to the WS and winning it should be the goal. With the players in our farm system, that can be done, but not this year. Bloom did a good job in compiling really good position players. He just didn't do with pitchers. By selling for young pitchers, we could have it all for a long time. That should be the goal...WS favorites every year. Winning the WS is the only goal. Making the playoffs is completely meaningless in my view. It could be viewed as a sign of progress but the Rangers won the WS last year and might not make the playoffs this year. I've seen the Red Sox lose in a WS three times. There's zero satisfaction in it. It's more disappointing than finishing in last place.
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Post by julyanmorley on Jul 21, 2024 9:19:34 GMT -5
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Post by costpet on Jul 21, 2024 9:24:13 GMT -5
I checked the MLB top 100 looking for pitchers in the minors with teams in contention this year. In other words, they could use a little more help this year to win it all and might give up on some young pitchers. In other words, not the SD's or Miami's or Mets of the world.
Andrew Painter Phil AA RHP age 21 (underwent TJ surgery, but should be back next year) Jacob Misiororowski Mil AA RHP age 22 Hurston Waldrep Atl AAA Rhp age 22 Mac Abel Phil AA Rhp age 22
Philadelphia has 2 guys on the list. We might be able to get both of them, maybe for Jansen.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jul 21, 2024 9:32:08 GMT -5
I checked the MLB top 100 looking for pitchers in the minors with teams in contention this year. In other words, they could use a little more help this year to win it all and might give up on some young pitchers. In other words, not the SD's or Miami's or Mets of the world. Andrew Painter Phil AA RHP age 21 (underwent TJ surgery, but should be back next year) Jacob Misiororowski Mil AA RHP age 22 Hurston Waldrep Atl AAA Rhp age 22 Mac Abel Phil AA Rhp age 22 Philadelphia has 2 guys on the list. We might be able to get both of them, maybe for Jansen. if Breslow called the Phillies and asked for Andrew Painter for Kenley Jansen they would block his number
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