SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
|
Post by greatscottcooper on Jul 21, 2024 9:47:24 GMT -5
I checked the MLB top 100 looking for pitchers in the minors with teams in contention this year. In other words, they could use a little more help this year to win it all and might give up on some young pitchers. In other words, not the SD's or Miami's or Mets of the world. Andrew Painter Phil AA RHP age 21 (underwent TJ surgery, but should be back next year) Jacob Misiororowski Mil AA RHP age 22 Hurston Waldrep Atl AAA Rhp age 22 Mac Abel Phil AA Rhp age 22 Philadelphia has 2 guys on the list. We might be able to get both of them, maybe for Jansen. We certainly could have used another late inning arm last night. Perhaps we should look into trading one of our top 100 prospects for a rental relief pitcher.
|
|
|
Post by dcsoxfan15 on Jul 21, 2024 9:55:03 GMT -5
Man people are fickle. Red Sox lose a couple games, which they were winning in the 8th inning or later, to one of the best teams in the league and that’s it, season is unfixable. Two of their best relievers are on IL set to return, they have Martin and Slaten they probably win both games, but even if that weren’t true relief pitching is the easiest thing to add at the deadline, and even if that weren’t true these were incredibly close games and baseball has a high degree of randomness. It’s not fickle. Losing games against good teams is not a good sign for the post season, if that’s the ambition this year (which it should be). You can’t simply bank on good health from pitchers, when they haven’t established good health this season. Who knows how long these injuries will actually last? Lest we forget that Casas was initially saying he was going to come back in late June and now he isn’t expected until August at the earliest. Baseball sure has a high degree of randomness, but you don’t help your odds by running Weissert out there in big spots. They need to address that ASAP
|
|
|
Post by Underwater Johnson on Jul 21, 2024 10:01:11 GMT -5
I checked the MLB top 100 looking for pitchers in the minors with teams in contention this year. In other words, they could use a little more help this year to win it all and might give up on some young pitchers. In other words, not the SD's or Miami's or Mets of the world. Andrew Painter Phil AA RHP age 21 (underwent TJ surgery, but should be back next year) Jacob Misiororowski Mil AA RHP age 22 Hurston Waldrep Atl AAA Rhp age 22 Mac Abel Phil AA Rhp age 22 Philadelphia has 2 guys on the list. We might be able to get both of them, maybe for Jansen. We certainly could have used another late inning arm last night. Perhaps we should look into trading one of our top 100 prospects for a rental relief pitcher. Paging Tanner Scott… although you’d have to outbid BAL. Kyle Finnegan also a nice option. The latter probably worthier of a top 100 kid due to his extra year of control. I’d go Yorke for Finnegan.
|
|
|
Post by scottysmalls on Jul 21, 2024 10:10:22 GMT -5
Man people are fickle. Red Sox lose a couple games, which they were winning in the 8th inning or later, to one of the best teams in the league and that’s it, season is unfixable. Two of their best relievers are on IL set to return, they have Martin and Slaten they probably win both games, but even if that weren’t true relief pitching is the easiest thing to add at the deadline, and even if that weren’t true these were incredibly close games and baseball has a high degree of randomness. It’s not fickle. Losing games against good teams is not a good sign for the post season, if that’s the ambition this year (which it should be). You can’t simply bank on good health from pitchers, when they haven’t established good health this season. Who knows how long these injuries will actually last? Lest we forget that Casas was initially saying he was going to come back in late June and now he isn’t expected until August at the earliest. Baseball sure has a high degree of randomness, but you don’t help your odds by running Weissert out there in big spots. They need to address that ASAP If you’re ready to sell because a couple relievers are hurt and they lost a couple close games, but thought they should buy before, that is fickle. If they win today does it change? If they held on in extra innings? To be fair though, I actually don’t know if the posters who are now saying they should sell were asking them to buy before. More the overall mood here feels fickle but I suppose when they win the buy-camp comes out and when they lose the sell-camp does.
|
|
|
Post by wcsoxfan on Jul 21, 2024 10:20:07 GMT -5
I’d push back on the idea that Turner offers positional flexibility I really think he’s a break-glass-in-case-of-emergency only fielder at any position at this point based on the fact that that’s how the Blue Jays are using him and his defensive metrics the last couple years. Also he is similar to Canha in that for his career he has no platoon splits though in the last couple years he has had regular ones. I’d also be more wary of him breaking down down the stretch. Turner grades out as average-to-better defensively at 1b by OAA, UZR/150 and DRS in each of the past 2 years. The Blue Jay's choice to play the inferior defender at 1b (Vlad Guerrero Jr.) is more about the commitment to the player (and consistency) than placing the best team on the field. Whether you believe that Turner is a below average defender at 2b/3b or simply a 'break glass in case of emergency' defender (somewhat semantic), his managers' choices to play him at 2nd & 3rd for short stints over the past 2 seasons shows the viable positional flexibility which he offers - even if we can all agree that his placement there isn't ideal. Every team needs a 3rd-string plan just-in-case. Given how often managers move around players in the postseason to setup ideal pinch running/hitting scenarios, even 1 inning at 2b/3b adds value to the club. I'd be worried about any player breaking down, especially older players, but Turner is 45th (out of 275 qualified players) in games played over the past 4 seasons - so he has been surprisingly healthy. I'm pretty sure we would be looking at him as a part-time-player anyway.
|
|
|
Post by dcsoxfan15 on Jul 21, 2024 10:26:22 GMT -5
It’s not fickle. Losing games against good teams is not a good sign for the post season, if that’s the ambition this year (which it should be). You can’t simply bank on good health from pitchers, when they haven’t established good health this season. Who knows how long these injuries will actually last? Lest we forget that Casas was initially saying he was going to come back in late June and now he isn’t expected until August at the earliest. Baseball sure has a high degree of randomness, but you don’t help your odds by running Weissert out there in big spots. They need to address that ASAP If you’re ready to sell because a couple relievers are hurt and they lost a couple close games, but thought they should buy before, that is fickle. If they win today does it change? If they held on in extra innings? To be fair though, I actually don’t know if the posters who are now saying they should sell were asking them to buy before. More the overall mood here feels fickle but I suppose when they win the buy-camp comes out and when they lose the sell-camp does. I don’t see a lot of selling comments in here, I mostly see comments about wanting to acquire some relievers and a right handed hitter
|
|
|
Post by scottysmalls on Jul 21, 2024 10:35:24 GMT -5
I’d push back on the idea that Turner offers positional flexibility I really think he’s a break-glass-in-case-of-emergency only fielder at any position at this point based on the fact that that’s how the Blue Jays are using him and his defensive metrics the last couple years. Also he is similar to Canha in that for his career he has no platoon splits though in the last couple years he has had regular ones. I’d also be more wary of him breaking down down the stretch. Turner grades out as average-to-better defensively at 1b by OAA, UZR/150 and DRS in each of the past 2 years. The Blue Jay's choice to play the inferior defender at 1b (Vlad Guerrero Jr.) is more about the commitment to the player (and consistency) than placing the best team on the field. Whether you believe that Turner is a below average defender at 2b/3b or simply a 'break glass in case of emergency' defender (somewhat semantic), his managers' choices to play him at 2nd & 3rd for short stints over the past 2 seasons shows the viable positional flexibility which he offers - even if we can all agree that his placement there isn't ideal. Every team needs a 3rd-string plan just-in-case. Given how often managers move around players in the postseason to setup ideal pinch running/hitting scenarios, even 1 inning at 2b/3b adds value to the club. I'd be worried about any player breaking down, especially older players, but Turner is 45th (out of 275 qualified players) in games played over the past 4 seasons - so he has been surprisingly healthy. I'm pretty sure we would be looking at him as a part-time-player anyway. 1B I can maybe buy hed be acceptable at on a part time basis. His metrics at 2B and 3B though aren’t below average they’re horrendous. I really don’t think 2B is even a consideration or should be. 3B maybe only because the Red Sox only have Devers and Romy if there’s an injury he could step in for an inning. But between how terrible his metrics are there, how the Blue Jays have never played him there, and how old he is I really don’t know if the Red Sox would consider him an acceptable starter there. I think you can make a case for Turner I’m just saying I don’t think positional versatility, especially 2B, is part of that case and in fact I think his lack of defensive ability is a knock against him compared to some other options.
|
|
|
Post by scottysmalls on Jul 21, 2024 10:37:09 GMT -5
If you’re ready to sell because a couple relievers are hurt and they lost a couple close games, but thought they should buy before, that is fickle. If they win today does it change? If they held on in extra innings? To be fair though, I actually don’t know if the posters who are now saying they should sell were asking them to buy before. More the overall mood here feels fickle but I suppose when they win the buy-camp comes out and when they lose the sell-camp does. I don’t see a lot of selling comments in here, I mostly see comments about wanting to acquire some relievers and a right handed hitter the two comments directly above the one of mine that you are complaining about both suggested selling, which is clearly what I was responding to
|
|
|
Post by costpet on Jul 21, 2024 10:39:04 GMT -5
I just don't see this team being a WS contender this year. So, buying a couple of more players might get them to the next round, but after that we just don't "have it". Next year is a different story. So, selling a few guys for next year's team is the way to go. Give up this year, next year be great. Who could we trade? O'Neil and Jansen could give us a couple of AA stud pitchers. Philly would love Jansen. Good for them.
|
|
|
Post by ematz1423 on Jul 21, 2024 10:53:15 GMT -5
I still like the idea of trading with the Blue Jays. Trades being Gauseman and Guerrero Jr or Turner and Gausman. I was looking at baseball Savant Gauseman uses a split finger and his four seamer is about 50 percent of the time . He has a slider I believe 8 percent and sinker rarely used. If he can cut down the four seamer to 30 percent and increase usage of sinker slider. He could have better results if he buys in .it would also make his really good splitter look lay up better. He eats innings and could be your 2 in a playoff series . Houck, Gausman, Crawford, with Pivetta looks pretty good for the post season. He’s not a rental either 2025 contract. What do you think it will cost prospect wise? Also remember Turner is a rental. Guerrero Jr. Isn’t a free agent until 2026. My initial thought about Guerrero was that it was crazy, but with Casas out for most of the rest of this season I'm starting to come around on the idea. I wouldn't trade any of the big 4 for him, but if they would take an Abreu-centered trade they might be able to make it work. Not sure if TOR would go for it, but Guerrero is expensive so maybe they bite? I don't think I'd deal abreu for Guerrero. Cant always just go off WAR but I'll do it anyway. Abreu probably gives similar WAR to Guerrero in the short term and is also controlled an extra 3 years. Guerrero to me is one of those guys who may be a bigger name than his actual worth.
|
|
|
Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jul 21, 2024 11:09:05 GMT -5
I feel like people conflate being a "contender" with being a "favorite". The Sox are absolutely contenders as it stands right now, and could easily be competitive with anyone in a 7-game series with a little health and a couple strategic additions.
This isn't a video game where you can put the settings on easy, stack your roster, and breeze through a season 162-0. There are other teams that are trying to be competitive too, and if you want to win at a certain point you're going to have to make moves to get better. I'm not advocating for blowing the farm on rentals, but I also wouldn't really be bothered to trade some top-20 type guys in order to strategically improve the team this year.
The odds that this team is ever 2018 levels of good again are low, so if people are expecting to feel like that before they consider the Sox a contender, then I think expectations need to be reset. At this point right now, the Sox are on pace for only 1.5 fewer wins than the Rangers had last year, and 4.5 more than the Diamondbacks. This team IS good enough to compete, and two games on the west coast against one of the best teams in baseball doesn't change that.
Mini-rant over, outright selling would be clinically insane.
|
|
|
Post by ematz1423 on Jul 21, 2024 11:12:46 GMT -5
I don't think I'd deal abreu for Guerrero. Cant always just go off WAR but I'll do it anyway. Abreu probably gives similar WAR to Guerrero in the short term and is also controlled an extra 3 years. Guerrero to me is one of those guys who may be a bigger name than his actual worth. Completely fair, but my thoughts are: - My very non-quant gut feel is that Abreu's real value is less than what his WAR says (how much WAR did he lose with that ridiculous throw to home last night?) and Guerrero maybe plays above his WAR. - I think Guerrero could have a resurgence in Boston - Abreu is going to be displaced by prospects as early as the start of next year - Swapping the two out greatly reduces Boston's LHP vulnerability I think pulling Guerrero is probably going to require an overpay because of the name recognition alone, Abreu is the best name I can reasonably think of to minimize the damage. I think that's all fair and in terms of a fit I do have a hard time finding a better one than Guerrero for this lineup. With the news on Casas I don't really expect him back this year so he can slot in at 1st rest of year and next year who knows. If they did pull it off they'd probably have to move yoshida but worry about that later if it happened. All that being said I think the likelihood is close to 0 that Guerrero gets moved.
|
|
|
Post by dirtywaterinla on Jul 21, 2024 11:25:08 GMT -5
Completely fair, but my thoughts are: - My very non-quant gut feel is that Abreu's real value is less than what his WAR says (how much WAR did he lose with that ridiculous throw to home last night?) and Guerrero maybe plays above his WAR. - I think Guerrero could have a resurgence in Boston - Abreu is going to be displaced by prospects as early as the start of next year - Swapping the two out greatly reduces Boston's LHP vulnerability I think pulling Guerrero is probably going to require an overpay because of the name recognition alone, Abreu is the best name I can reasonably think of to minimize the damage. I think that's all fair and in terms of a fit I do have a hard time finding a better one than Guerrero for this lineup. With the news on Casas I don't really expect him back this year so he can slot in at 1st rest of year and next year who knows. If they did pull it off they'd probably have to move yoshida but worry about that later if it happened. All that being said I think the likelihood is close to 0 that Guerrero gets moved. There’d be riots in Toronto if they traded Guerrero. Not to mention, his value is at that the lowest it’s ever been. Trading him now wouldn’t make practical sense for Toronto in terms of extracting the best return. In terms of Abreu being mentioned as a trade piece, there’s maybe three players I’d consider trading him for: Robert Jr., Rooker or Skubal. There’s zero shot that Skubal is happening. Even if he’s available, the Orioles are gonna absolutely blow away anyone else’s offers. Rooker *might* happen but I’m sure the A’s would want Campbell and Bleis too at the very least. He’s a bit divisive given his injury history, but Robert Jr. is really the only player I could see Abreu being traded for at the deadline and me being okay w/ parting w/ Abreu.
|
|
|
Post by incandenza on Jul 21, 2024 11:26:50 GMT -5
Playoff odds are just a simplification, there are other factors involved, it's just a shorthand, blah blah please don't misinterpret this as some kind of absolutlst belief in those odds, but... I wonder what Breslow's threshold is for buying or selling?
Since he's inexplicably committed to this "pick a lane" approach, presumably there is some level at which the odds flip from being sellers to being buyers. 25% to 26%? 40% to 41%? Their odds, per fangraphs, have fallen from 53% to 44% in the last two days. Did that already drop them below the threshold? Casas being unlikely to return further lowers their odds and also makes it more expensive to improve the team, if they need to trade for a first baseman. The condition of Slaten and Martin are also pretty important, and we certainly can't take the team at their word when they say they expect them back soon. These factors further make me wonder if we might actually be very close to Breslow's threshold.
8 games to go until the deadline and they're all going to be massively important...
|
|
asm18
Veteran
Posts: 2,476
|
Post by asm18 on Jul 21, 2024 11:38:46 GMT -5
Do people not realize we technically hold a playoff spot, and that our main competitors for that spot are a Royals team with whom we a game up in the loss column and currently hold the tie-breaker, and a Mariners team that has scored only more runs than the Chicago White Sox in the American League
Playoffs = good
|
|
|
Post by dirtywaterinla on Jul 21, 2024 11:42:41 GMT -5
Do people not realize we technically hold a playoff spot, and that our main competitors for that spot are a Royals team with whom we a game up in the loss column and currently hold the tie-breaker, and a Mariners team that has scored only more runs than the Chicago White Sox in the American League Playoffs = good This weekend you would think the team has fallen under .500 again…
|
|
asm18
Veteran
Posts: 2,476
|
Post by asm18 on Jul 21, 2024 11:45:07 GMT -5
Do people not realize we technically hold a playoff spot, and that our main competitors for that spot are a Royals team with whom we a game up in the loss column and currently hold the tie-breaker, and a Mariners team that has scored only more runs than the Chicago White Sox in the American League Playoffs = good This weekend you would think the team has fallen under .500 again… I did not realize losing a game because Greg Weissert couldn’t get Kiké Hernandez out on an 0-2 count is worth extra
|
|
|
Post by alexcorahomevideo on Jul 21, 2024 11:53:57 GMT -5
Do people not realize we technically hold a playoff spot, and that our main competitors for that spot are a Royals team with whom we a game up in the loss column and currently hold the tie-breaker, and a Mariners team that has scored only more runs than the Chicago White Sox in the American League Playoffs = good True. Although the Royals aren’t slouches and just added Harvey. So they’re probably sticking around. Plus Witt is one of the top players in the game too
|
|
|
Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 21, 2024 11:57:07 GMT -5
Man people are fickle. Red Sox lose a couple games, which they were winning in the 8th inning or later, to one of the best teams in the league and that’s it, season is unfixable. Two of their best relievers are on IL set to return, they have Martin and Slaten they probably win both games, but even if that weren’t true relief pitching is the easiest thing to add at the deadline, and even if that weren’t true these were incredibly close games and baseball has a high degree of randomness. I'm worried that Martin and Casas arent coming back this year, but barring a 10 game losing streak, I dont see any reason to sell. They don't have to trade away the system to improve, even if its incrementally. I think they're capable of finishing ahead of the Mariners, Royals, and Rangers, and possibly even the Twins. They only have to finish in the 3rd wild card to make the playoffs. It might even be advantageous to finish as the 3rd wild card. I know Houston is playing well, but I still don't think they are what they have been. They're good, not great. The point is they dont have to trade away their crown jewels to improve their team incrementally enough to make the playoffs. There's no real reason why the Sox cant make the playoffs with a tweak here or there. They're not trying to fend off the 1998 Yankees for a playoff spot. Even if it's two and out for the Sox in the playoffs, the younger players gain valuable playoff experience which will help them the next time around.
|
|
|
Post by itinerantherb on Jul 21, 2024 12:58:47 GMT -5
I'm not pessimistic. I'm a realist. This is not the year we can win it all. Just making the playoffs is not the goal. Getting to the WS and winning it should be the goal. With the players in our farm system, that can be done, but not this year. Bloom did a good job in compiling really good position players. He just didn't do with pitchers. By selling for young pitchers, we could have it all for a long time. That should be the goal...WS favorites every year. Winning the WS is the only goal. Making the playoffs is completely meaningless in my view. It could be viewed as a sign of progress but the Rangers won the WS last year and might not make the playoffs this year. I've seen the Red Sox lose in a WS three times. There's zero satisfaction in it. It's more disappointing than finishing in last place. To each their own, but for me personally, playing meaningful games in late September and giving themselves a chance in the tournament is really enjoyable and keeps me highly entertained. And if they somehow get to the aLCS (or honestly, even push the DS to 5 games against a good team), I'd consider that a fantastic season for a team like this. For me, 2021 was a huge success, even though they didn't "win it all." In short, if we are thinking about the deadline with very different definitions of a successful season, that's obviously going to inform our judgments about the buy/sell/stand pat question.
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 21, 2024 13:07:10 GMT -5
Winning the WS is the only goal. Making the playoffs is completely meaningless in my view. It could be viewed as a sign of progress but the Rangers won the WS last year and might not make the playoffs this year. I've seen the Red Sox lose in a WS three times. There's zero satisfaction in it. It's more disappointing than finishing in last place. To each their own, but for me personally, playing meaningful games in late September and giving themselves a chance in the tournament is really enjoyable and keeps me highly entertained. And if they somehow get to the aLCS (or honestly, even push the DS to 5 games against a good team), I'd consider that a fantastic season for a team like this. For me, 2021 was a huge success, even though they didn't "win it all." In short, if we are thinking about the deadline with very different definitions of a successful season, that's obviously going to inform our judgments about the buy/sell/stand pat question. I've got no issue with feeling either way on this as a fan. But as far as running a team, specifically the 2024 Boston Red Sox... 1) There is a financial incentive to making the postseason. 2) Specific to this org, right now, there is significant signaling incentive to show you are willing, at least to some degree, to "go for it." Showing the fan base a willingness to invest when there is reason to do so is not unimportant as far as putting butts in seats and eyes on NESN. 3) Specific to this org, right now, there is also a very strong argument that the best days are ahead. This year's team has flaws that it's going to take a lot of creativity to address (I'm thinking of the handedness issue, unless it's as simple as Casas isn't coming back and they go get a thumper at first or something) that may be better addressed over the offseason. They should buy, but I wouldn't push all of the chips in either. I'd be very happy with a 2018 or 2021-esque deadline. Find a good relief arm, a RH bat that fits somewhere, and push hard to find another SP, although I am skeptical they find a deal there that makes sense.
|
|
|
Post by jdb on Jul 21, 2024 13:45:38 GMT -5
Another thing is the benefit on a young team is learning to play important games down the stretch and hopefully Oct. I remember the offseason thread some talk about Boston not being that destination team anymore especially when it came out Montgomery didn’t want to come. We’ll show progress on the field, have evidence the pitching program is for real some of these guys will be looking more this upcoming offseason. I don’t won’t to trade the top tier guys but add something to help the squad.
|
|
|
Post by incandenza on Jul 21, 2024 14:23:27 GMT -5
Playoff odds are just a simplification, there are other factors involved, it's just a shorthand, blah blah please don't misinterpret this as some kind of absolutlst belief in those odds, but... I wonder what Breslow's threshold is for buying or selling?
Since he's inexplicably committed to this "pick a lane" approach, presumably there is some level at which the odds flip from being sellers to being buyers. 25% to 26%? 40% to 41%? Their odds, per fangraphs, have fallen from 53% to 44% in the last two days. Did that already drop them below the threshold? Casas being unlikely to return further lowers their odds and also makes it more expensive to improve the team, if they need to trade for a first baseman. The condition of Slaten and Martin are also pretty important, and we certainly can't take the team at their word when they say they expect them back soon. These factors further make me wonder if we might actually be very close to Breslow's threshold.
8 games to go until the deadline and they're all going to be massively important...
it's a fair question, to answer it I think you have to get under the hood a little rather than just look at the percentages. As of right now the Yankees, Sox, Twins, Royals and Mariners are the only teams competing for a wild card. Right now I would say that the Yankees have a secure hold on the 1st wild card spot and that Seattle is trending in a way that they're not really in contention anymore. That leaves three teams fighting for two spots and if you're one of those three teams I just don't know how you'd ever sell. I think the situation would have to change significantly for the Sox to sell, like they would have to have a worse W-L record than Seattle to give any serious thought to selling, so whatever playoff probability they would have in that situation is what it would take IMO. I'm not sure why the Mariners get written off by so many. They've given up the fewest runs in the league, their offense is due for some positive regression, and they could add some offense at the deadline too... In any case, if the Red Sox go 3-5 or worse over the next 8 games there's a good chance they'd be 2 games out of a wild card spot at the deadline - i.e., exactly where they were in 2022 and 2023. It's precisely the worst place to be if you've committed yourself to a "pick a lane" approach because neither "lane" makes much sense if you're in that position.
Here's hoping they go 6-2 or better and make the question moot...
|
|
|
Post by dirtywaterinla on Jul 21, 2024 14:40:29 GMT -5
it's a fair question, to answer it I think you have to get under the hood a little rather than just look at the percentages. As of right now the Yankees, Sox, Twins, Royals and Mariners are the only teams competing for a wild card. Right now I would say that the Yankees have a secure hold on the 1st wild card spot and that Seattle is trending in a way that they're not really in contention anymore. That leaves three teams fighting for two spots and if you're one of those three teams I just don't know how you'd ever sell. I think the situation would have to change significantly for the Sox to sell, like they would have to have a worse W-L record than Seattle to give any serious thought to selling, so whatever playoff probability they would have in that situation is what it would take IMO. I'm not sure why the Mariners get written off by so many. They've given up the fewest runs in the league, their offense is due for some positive regression, and they could add some offense at the deadline too... In any case, if the Red Sox go 3-5 or worse over the next 8 games there's a good chance they'd be 2 games out of a wild card spot at the deadline - i.e., exactly where they were in 2022 and 2023. It's precisely the worst place to be if you've committed yourself to a "pick a lane" approach because neither "lane" makes much sense if you're in that position.
Here's hoping they go 6-2 or better and make the question moot...
I personally don’t see the Mariners as a threat. Even if Julio turns it back on and they get an impact bat at the deadline, their offense is simply too horrible to make up the difference.
|
|
|
Post by incandenza on Jul 21, 2024 14:56:02 GMT -5
I'm not sure why the Mariners get written off by so many. They've given up the fewest runs in the league, their offense is due for some positive regression, and they could add some offense at the deadline too... In any case, if the Red Sox go 3-5 or worse over the next 8 games there's a good chance they'd be 2 games out of a wild card spot at the deadline - i.e., exactly where they were in 2022 and 2023. It's precisely the worst place to be if you've committed yourself to a "pick a lane" approach because neither "lane" makes much sense if you're in that position.
Here's hoping they go 6-2 or better and make the question moot...
I personally don’t see the Mariners as a threat. Even if Julio turns it back on and they get an impact bat at the deadline, their offense is simply too horrible to make up the difference. Yeah see this is the kind of writing off I don't get.
They have a 94 wRC+. Not great, but not horrible either. For comparison, ATL is 98, KC is 95. The Red Sox won the AL East in 2017 with a team wRC+ of 91. (Mookie led the team, min. 250 PAs, with 107!) Even if the Mariners' offense didn't improve at all, with their pitching they have the profile of a wild card team.
|
|
|