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Post by jodyreidnichols on Jul 21, 2024 14:56:20 GMT -5
The more I think about it the more I've come to these conclusions: The Big 3 are off the table. I would also keep Campbell and eventually Montgomery once he's officially in the organization off the table. Perales and that young catcher Garcia are likely staying put given their injuries. The only real other major hesitation I'd have is that young SS Arias who could be needed well down the road if Mayer struggles to needs to be shifted to 3b eventually. But beyond that I'd be open for business. Nick Yorke is an obvious candidate to be moved given the presence of both Grissom and Campbell. He's a starting 2b on a lot of major league teams soon. Meidroth could potentially start for a 2nd division team although he most likely winds up a utility man. Cespedes is an attractive player to acquire for down the road. Blaze Jordan could even be a player of interest. Teams looking for outfielders could well be attracted to Bleis, Allan Castro, or Jhostnyxon Garcia. Brooks Brannon would be an attractive catching target. Beyond Perales the pitching is not quite as deep but between Sandlin, Fitts, or Cruz-Rodriguez and Portes, there are pitchers of interest. I suppose if a pitcher is the target one of those guys would be part of the return. I'd guess it wouldnt be Fitts or Wiki Gonzalez based on their struggles, but who knows? The point is they have a lot of attractive talent on the table to be able to make a major deal, even Crotchet, although less likely. They have serious depth they can trade from without touching their top 5 or thinning out the system. This isnt a call to br reckless but rather a realization that they have a lot of attractive pieces and not that many needs to fill. Frankly I dont see the next Pedro available or a Manny like RH bat so i see no need to trade from the top tier. They can package some off that 6 - 20 talent and come away getting what they need without wrecking the system although I'm sure the prospect hugger in me will howl in protest when it does happen. I think Yorke is an under-rated prospect here, which considering how so many of us are trade reluctant with prospects is actually really saying something. When he was first drafted he was an under the radar pick so I think expectations were muted, then he had a good first year and suddenly we were all high on him. His second year in the system started off well until he incurred an injury and continued to play through it before shutting it down, the numbers suffered and he was questioned by many here. Last year in AA he had a solid if unspectacular season which answered the question for some but the shiny object had none the less lost its luster, which in a farm system that added several very shiny objects is certainly understandable. That said Grissom at this point may have a higher ceiling but I think it's very fair to say he also has a lower floor than Yorke. Yorke is VERY quietly having his best year in the minors and doing it at AAA-333/427/528. Yorke is someone I'd like to see get a fair shot at second base next year, he just may be the answer to the hole we've had at second base since Pedrioa hung them up. Meridroth whose a similar prospect in some ways would be the player I'd prefer moving as his lack of power would be challenged in the pro's and I think his OBP prowess suffers as a result. I think the Sox for at least another year, unless overwhelmed, should hold onto Anthony, Mayar, Teel, Campbell and Montgomery are the untouchables. I'd put Cespedes on that list merely because he's on the long term injured list. Guys in the very low minors even those with very high ceilings are the type of high asset pieces I'd be much more likely to part with because the lessons of life following the game indicates there is still alot that can wrong with these type of prospects. The list of players so many here have whined about when they were traded that did little to nothing in the majors is a very very long list.
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Jul 21, 2024 15:05:27 GMT -5
I’m buying knowing that we probably aren’t actual WS contenders (though you really never know). I want these young guys getting playoff experience
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Jul 21, 2024 15:14:24 GMT -5
I’m buying knowing that we probably aren’t actual WS contenders (though you really never know). I want these young guys getting playoff experience Breslow made this interesting point in an interview a week or two ago.
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Post by incandenza on Jul 21, 2024 15:20:47 GMT -5
Yeah see this is the kind of writing off I don't get.
They have a 94 wRC+. Not great, but not horrible either. For comparison, ATL is 98, KC is 95. The Red Sox won the AL East in 2017 with a team wRC+ of 91. (Mookie led the team, min. 250 PAs, with 107!) Even if the Mariners' offense didn't improve at all, with their pitching they have the profile of a wild card team.
They've scored the third fewest runs in baseball and don't have a single player (min 40 AB's) with an OPS over .725. I don't want to speak for everyone, but after 100 games that seems more relevant to me than the advanced metrics. They're also 8-17 in their last 25 games. I guess OPS isn't an advanced metric anymore. Statistical gentrification?
What wRC+ captures that the other stats don't is that they play in a pitcher's park. Of course that makes their pitching look better, too, so if you want to just talk about runs and capture the overall strength of the team, it's very simple: their run differential is +14. That's behind the Red Sox (+40) and Twins (+43) but not by some enormous margin.
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Jul 21, 2024 15:30:32 GMT -5
I’m buying knowing that we probably aren’t actual WS contenders (though you really never know). I want these young guys getting playoff experience Breslow made this interesting point in an interview a week or two ago. Didn’t even know that but I’m glad he did- it’s important. It’s so rare in sports that you get into the playoffs and win the title the first chance you get with a core. You have to learn what it takes to win together at that point in the season- it’s a completely different environment. So the sooner we can get them that experience the better imo Hell just look at the 2004 Sox- I don’t think they win if they didn’t suffer through brutal defeat in the playoffs in 2003.
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Post by costpet on Jul 21, 2024 15:42:19 GMT -5
When it comes down to it, baseball is all about pitching. Good pitching beats good hitting every time. It's always been that way. If our pitching isn't that great, then where will that take us? Into the World Series? Forgetaboutit. If there's zero chance to getting there, then use other teams needs to stock up on good young pitchers. Then next year, go for it all. And the next. And the next.
That means I'm selling.
Perhaps Chris could make a poll to see how everyone feels. Chris?
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asm18
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Post by asm18 on Jul 21, 2024 15:42:43 GMT -5
In any case, if the Red Sox go 3-5 or worse over the next 8 games there's a good chance they'd be 2 games out of a wild card spot at the deadline - i.e., exactly where they were in 2022 and 2023. It's precisely the worst place to be if you've committed yourself to a "pick a lane" approach because neither "lane" makes much sense if you're in that position.
Here's hoping they go 6-2 or better and make the question moot...
Not winning a road series against the Dodgers isn’t a mark of shame - but man if they don’t take care of business in Colorado that would be cataclysmic towards this
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asm18
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Post by asm18 on Jul 21, 2024 15:45:03 GMT -5
When it comes down to it, baseball is all about pitching. Good pitching beats good hitting every time. It's always been that way. If our pitching isn't that great, then where will that take us? Into the World Series? Forgetaboutit. If there's zero chance to getting there, then use other teams needs to stock up on good young pitchers. Then next year, go for it all. And the next. And the next. Do Tanner Houck and Kutter Crawford not count? Among qualified starters - Houck is 4th in ERA and Crawford is 13th in ERA. Seems good
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Jul 21, 2024 17:17:18 GMT -5
To each their own, but for me personally, playing meaningful games in late September and giving themselves a chance in the tournament is really enjoyable and keeps me highly entertained. And if they somehow get to the aLCS (or honestly, even push the DS to 5 games against a good team), I'd consider that a fantastic season for a team like this. For me, 2021 was a huge success, even though they didn't "win it all." In short, if we are thinking about the deadline with very different definitions of a successful season, that's obviously going to inform our judgments about the buy/sell/stand pat question. I've got no issue with feeling either way on this as a fan. But as far as running a team, specifically the 2024 Boston Red Sox... 1) There is a financial incentive to making the postseason. 2) Specific to this org, right now, there is significant signaling incentive to show you are willing, at least to some degree, to "go for it." Showing the fan base a willingness to invest when there is reason to do so is not unimportant as far as putting butts in seats and eyes on NESN. 3) Specific to this org, right now, there is also a very strong argument that the best days are ahead. This year's team has flaws that it's going to take a lot of creativity to address (I'm thinking of the handedness issue, unless it's as simple as Casas isn't coming back and they go get a thumper at first or something) that may be better addressed over the offseason. They should buy, but I wouldn't push all of the chips in either. I'd be very happy with a 2018 or 2021-esque deadline. Find a good relief arm, a RH bat that fits somewhere, and push hard to find another SP, although I am skeptical they find a deal there that makes sense. Also specific to this org, is the Netflix documentary. As was brought up by ‘EEI last week, which look do you think ownership wants to be immortalized in that series? Going for it, selling, or fiddling around the edges? There is a topical quote on the subject from JDM in Bob Nightingale’s new column (link below). Make of all that what you will, I’m making an expectation of at least one significant trade and one or two smaller ones. www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/columnist/bob-nightengale/2024/07/21/mlb-trade-deadline-rumors-2024/74483407007/
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Post by incandenza on Jul 21, 2024 18:35:58 GMT -5
From that Nightengale column: Last offseason...
White Sox: We'll trade you Dylan Cease for Spencer Jones. Yankees: Sorry, he's an elite prospect, not available.
[Spencer Jones runs 37% K rate in AA.]
Yankees: We'll trade you Spencer Jones for Garrett Crochet. White Sox: lol
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Post by julyanmorley on Jul 21, 2024 18:45:08 GMT -5
Yankees system is very thin. There is Dominguez, and a few pre-arby major leaguers that are very valuable, and then it's pretty barren past that. Dunno how they get a big boy trade target without Dominguez
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Post by pappyman99 on Jul 21, 2024 18:59:13 GMT -5
Yoshida, Wikelman, and Jordan for Taillon? Shorter contract, bigger need and open up our roster flexibility (Make room to add another power right handed bat).
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Post by dirtywaterinla on Jul 21, 2024 19:04:43 GMT -5
Yoshida, Wikelman, and Jordan for Taillon? Shorter contract, bigger need and open up our roster flexibility (Make room to add another power right handed bat). No way the Cubs take on Masa’s contract.
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Post by dirtywaterinla on Jul 21, 2024 19:06:34 GMT -5
Yoshida, Wikelman, and Jordan for Taillon? Shorter contract, bigger need and open up our roster flexibility (Make room to add another power right handed bat). Also, that contract is not underwater. That’s the market value of a solid SP FA who’s a #4.
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Post by scottysmalls on Jul 21, 2024 19:30:24 GMT -5
The Mariners waived Ty France. I wouldn't mind giving him a shot in the Westbrook spot. He's been a terrible defender this year but prior to that looked okay at 1B. I'd put it at 50/50 who's better the rest of the way between he and Turner but you could get France right now for nothing.
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Post by markm7 on Jul 21, 2024 19:37:13 GMT -5
There is a reason Breslow has refused to commit he knew this was a possibility
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asm18
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Post by asm18 on Jul 21, 2024 19:42:31 GMT -5
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Post by julyanmorley on Jul 21, 2024 19:47:43 GMT -5
Must be nice to be able to buy and sell, or sell your #1 starter coming off a World Series appearance and not worry about anything because there are no fans and no media
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asm18
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Posts: 2,490
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Post by asm18 on Jul 21, 2024 19:56:44 GMT -5
Must be nice to be able to buy and sell, or sell your #1 starter coming off a World Series appearance and not worry about anything because there are no fans and no media 94 million dollar payroll and you can trade whoever you want
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Post by scottysmalls on Jul 21, 2024 20:05:11 GMT -5
Rumors/reports starting to come alive on Twitter. Reds talking about selling their rentals supposedly. I kinda like Nick Martinez
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Post by soxfansince67 on Jul 21, 2024 23:20:11 GMT -5
Wow - time flies - just about a week to go before the deadline - they need to erase those three LA losses with some wins in Colorado.
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Post by alexcorahomevideo on Jul 22, 2024 6:22:54 GMT -5
Yankees system is very thin. There is Dominguez, and a few pre-arby major leaguers that are very valuable, and then it's pretty barren past that. Dunno how they get a big boy trade target without Dominguez They can’t. The problem being that Jones is striking out a lot. Then you have some guys like Pereria and Hampton who are decent. But Boston could easily outbid any package the Yankees have at this point. They might be willing to take on a contract that the Sox won’t. Could be the difference between getting Crochet or Skubal.
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Post by alexcorahomevideo on Jul 22, 2024 6:25:04 GMT -5
I’m buying knowing that we probably aren’t actual WS contenders (though you really never know). I want these young guys getting playoff experience Breslow made this interesting point in an interview a week or two ago. I would try to buy a late inning reliever with term and move Jansen. It’s not “selling” but it’s being smart with your assets.
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Post by theburn on Jul 22, 2024 7:22:32 GMT -5
Breslow made this interesting point in an interview a week or two ago. I would try to buy a late inning reliever with term and move Jansen. It’s not “selling” but it’s being smart with your assets. What would you realistically want for Jansen though? If you could somehow flip him for an established RH bat or for the purpose of clearing $$ for a big fish then I could get on board. If it’s just to get more prospect capital I’m out.
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asm18
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Posts: 2,490
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Post by asm18 on Jul 22, 2024 7:31:10 GMT -5
The Rays are 50-49 and 4.5 games back of the wild card despite a negative 58 run differential despite certain guys having down years (Yandy Diaz) or their generational shortstop having been arrested. It sounds like they’re going to buy and sell and it seems unlikely they’ll make the playoffs, but even in a bad year the Rays are over-performing
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