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Post by Addam603 on Jul 22, 2024 8:01:21 GMT -5
The Red Sox sweep at the hands of the Dodgers and the Royals sweep of the White Sox flipped their positions in the Wild Card Race. Sox are now on the outside looking in, albeit only by one game. If you’re a fan of Fangraphs Playoff Odds, the last three days dropped their chance from 53% to 39.6%. One series isn’t going to change the overall course of the deadline, but the Sox need to stop the bleeding against the Rockies before it turns into a free fall.
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Post by beavertontim on Jul 22, 2024 8:28:37 GMT -5
I don't see this team as a deep into the playoffs group, even with an extra starting pitcher.
I know this will not be a popular take, but I would be a seller at this point.
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Post by pappyman99 on Jul 22, 2024 9:13:54 GMT -5
Say we trade for Taillon and his contract and Nate. And their contracts and Rental status (Nate) mitigate our costs to get them (player wise)
Do we do that with the thought of making Pivetta a dominant RP again?
Feel like that would be severely upgrading two needs? And just live without the right handed bat upgrade at the deadline
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Post by patford on Jul 22, 2024 9:27:38 GMT -5
Trading Jansen, O'Neill, Valdez and Abreu for young prospects who aren't Rule 5 eligible is what I'd like to see. Jansen and O'Neill probably won't be around next year while there are options in the pipeline who will probably be as good or better than all four. Trading Pivetta I don't understand at all. Pivetta is exactly the sort of pitcher the Red Sox should be looking to acquire. If the Sox are willing to spend money this off season the pitcher to throw money at is Corbin Burnes. Forget about the Sox winning the WS this year. It's a fantasy.
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Post by ematz1423 on Jul 22, 2024 9:37:10 GMT -5
Trading Jansen, O'Neill, Valdez and Abreu for young prospects who aren't Rule 5 eligible is what I'd like to see. Jansen and O'Neill probably won't be around next year while there are options in the pipeline who will probably be as good or better than all four. Trading Pivetta I don't understand at all. Pivetta is exactly the sort of pitcher the Red Sox should be looking to acquire. If the Sox are willing to spend money this off season the pitcher to throw money at is Corbin Burnes. Forget about the Sox winning the WS this year. It's a fantasy. I can understand the thought of trading impending FAs like Jansen and O'Neill but I don't see the rationale in dealing Abreu for prospects? Abreu is a young viable strong side of a platoon player with many more years of control for cheap.
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Post by patford on Jul 22, 2024 9:46:49 GMT -5
Trading Jansen, O'Neill, Valdez and Abreu for young prospects who aren't Rule 5 eligible is what I'd like to see. Jansen and O'Neill probably won't be around next year while there are options in the pipeline who will probably be as good or better than all four. Trading Pivetta I don't understand at all. Pivetta is exactly the sort of pitcher the Red Sox should be looking to acquire. If the Sox are willing to spend money this off season the pitcher to throw money at is Corbin Burnes. Forget about the Sox winning the WS this year. It's a fantasy. I can understand the thought of trading impending FAs like Jansen and O'Neill but I don't see the rationale in dealing Abreu for prospects? Abreu is a young viable strong side of a platoon player with many more years of control for cheap. I think they have better options coming up from AAA and AA soon. For the reasons you gave I think Abreu has value and might bring something good in return.
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Post by scottysmalls on Jul 22, 2024 9:48:34 GMT -5
I predict that in 3 days when they sweep the Rockies and are back in playoff position the mood on this thread will be different
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Post by ematz1423 on Jul 22, 2024 9:48:39 GMT -5
I can understand the thought of trading impending FAs like Jansen and O'Neill but I don't see the rationale in dealing Abreu for prospects? Abreu is a young viable strong side of a platoon player with many more years of control for cheap. I think they have better options coming up from AAA and AA soon. For the reasons you gave I think Abreu has value and might bring something good in return. I agree that Abreu has value and I'm not saying I wouldn't trade him. As part of a deal for maybe Crochet or someone along those lines sure but not prospects.
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Post by pappyman99 on Jul 22, 2024 9:56:09 GMT -5
I mean at some point Abreu will be traded, it’s very apparent, and I wouldn’t mind doing it before we lost leverage or before chancing him losing value
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Post by threeifbaerga on Jul 22, 2024 9:59:56 GMT -5
I mean at some point Abreu will be traded, it’s very apparent, and I wouldn’t mind doing it before we lost leverage or before chancing him losing value Why is that apparent?
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jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 4,107
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Post by jimoh on Jul 22, 2024 10:00:02 GMT -5
Anyone wants to bring Dalbec up for the Colorado series so he can hit five pop flies that go out and we can trade him and his roster spot for something useful?
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Post by patford on Jul 22, 2024 10:00:23 GMT -5
I think they have better options coming up from AAA and AA soon. For the reasons you gave I think Abreu has value and might bring something good in return. I agree that Abreu has value and I'm not saying I wouldn't trade him. As part of a deal for maybe Crochet or someone along those lines sure but not prospects. Crochet seems like a ticking bomb. And 15 teams are supposedly asking about him so the White Sox are going to expect a haul. Write off this year. Bring up some of the advanced AAA prospects in September. I'd love to see what Campbell could do in MLB as he's supposedly got horrible form which won't work at the MLB level. He's a college guy not some young kid and he's already at almost a sink or swim stage with his approach. Throw the bank at Burnes as a free agent and with the current staff plus the return of Lucas Giolito and maybe Whitlock the staff should be in good shape next year.
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Post by awalkinthepark on Jul 22, 2024 10:03:03 GMT -5
If Breslow sells at this deadline he will be absolutely roasted by the media. Everyone in the media will turn on him the way they did Bloom.
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Post by ematz1423 on Jul 22, 2024 10:05:41 GMT -5
I agree that Abreu has value and I'm not saying I wouldn't trade him. As part of a deal for maybe Crochet or someone along those lines sure but not prospects. Crochet seems like a ticking bomb. And 15 teams are supposedly asking about him so the White Sox are going to expect a haul. Write off this year. Bring up some of the advanced AAA prospects in September. I'd love to see what Campbell could do in MLB as he's supposedly got horrible form which won't work at the MLB level. He's a college guy not some young kid and he's already at almost a sink or swim stage with his approach. Throw the bank at Burnes as a free agent and with the current staff plus the return of Lucas Giolito and maybe Whitlock the staff should be in good shape next year. Doesn't have to be Crochet, substitute any other proven MLBer in hypothetical deal. Main point is Abreu feels like a guy who could headline a deal to shore up another position if/when the time comes. I also disagree very much that they should write this year off but that's another discussion.
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Post by iakovos11 on Jul 22, 2024 10:31:33 GMT -5
Are the Sox winning the World Series this year? Highly unlikely. But they are competing for a playoff spot. I'd rather they get in and make September and October much more interesting. Regardless of the outcome, it will be fun and exciting, maybe to iconic memorable moments. To give up on that opportunity, so long as they remain close, would be a bad move. More empty seats in Fenway, fewer viewers on NESN (with less ad revenue), and I think it sends a bad message to the fans and potential free agents. I'll bet last July, fans in Texas didn't think they would actually win the World Series. If they get swept by the Rockies and then the Yankees this weekend, then maybe sell. But people were calling for them to sell on Saturday, when they would have actually been in the playoffs if the season ended Saturday. And you want to sell?
I'm not saying blow up the farm system to get Skubal and whoever else might cost a 2-3 top prospects. Just a get a little pitching help. Maybe a RH bat with some power.
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asm18
Veteran
Posts: 2,497
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Post by asm18 on Jul 22, 2024 11:05:10 GMT -5
Craig Breslow two weeks ago, on the Fenway Rundown Podcast: “Do you want to think about ‘do we believe we have a team built for the World Series?’ Of course. It would be silly to ignore that. But if that’s the only decision making criteria, you can find yourself in a situation where you’re just never pushing to make the playoffs”
How many seasons in a row do people want to punt - like what exactly is going to be so dramatically different next season that is going to ensure the Red Sox have overwhelming playoff odds? Marcelo Mayer being a 22 year old rookie? A ace starting pitcher free agency signing that is neither guaranteed to either happen or work out? They are 53-45, the 10th best record in MLB. Like how many more wins do you expect them to have than this at this point next year
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Post by incandenza on Jul 22, 2024 11:18:48 GMT -5
Literally last season a team with a negative run differential made it to the World Series. It's so obvious that absolutely nothing will shake people out of this belief that there is such a thing as a team that is good enough to make the playoffs but has no shot at a World Series.
And what would a team "favored" to win a championship look like? The top three teams by fangraphs' championship odds (Phillies, Dodgers, Yankees) have a *combined* 44% chance of winning the World Series. In other words, it will probably be won by a team that currently has only a 6.5% chance or less.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 22, 2024 11:23:09 GMT -5
I dont agree with the World Series or bust mentality.
Unless they lose just about every freaking game between now and the deadline and fall more than a few games out I dont see what good it does then to punt.
At some point they need to go for it, but that means different things.
Given where they are organizationally it makes no sense to part with top prospects.
All they need to do is beat out some middling teams that aren't much better than them, if they are at all.
This, they can't be better than Minnesota or Kansas City or Seattle stuff is about as silly as expecting them to overtake NY and Baltimore. They dont have to overtake them to have a successful season.
They just need to make the damn playoffs. You cant expect a relatively young team to just win everything. There are usually steps along the way. If you watched the Celtics this year it was quite evident a maturation experience took place and the previous growing pains in the post season finally yielded dividends.
It would be good for guys like Duran and Rafaela and others to experience the post season, even if it's a quick two and out (just dont do that against the Yankees, lol). Hell, it's not even a guarantee that they dont make noise if they get in. Expecting them to win the Series is a bit much, but they're at the point they have to start making the playoffs.
Enough of this punt every July crap. When it's obvious they aren't going to be good enough to make the post season that's one thing, but this team is capable of being WC2 or WC3. Might as well do it and actually make the season interesting rather than trying for a fifth season in 6 where they cant even make the damn expanded playoffs
Like others said, not much of an attraction for other free agents to come to a team that cant even be the top 40% of their league.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 22, 2024 11:34:32 GMT -5
Literally last season a team with a negative run differential made it to the World Series. It's so obvious that absolutely nothing will shake people out of this belief that there is such a thing as a team that is good enough to make the playoffs but has no shot at a World Series. And what would a team "favored" to win a championship look like? The top three teams by fangraphs' championship odds (Phillies, Dodgers, Yankees) have a *combined* 44% chance of winning the World Series. In other words, it will probably be won by a team that currently has only a 6.5% chance or less. I agree in totality with what you're saying as it makes sense, and I'm definitely on the go for it side barring a total collapse. That said, I can see why a Red Sox fan has an image of what a Red Sox world championship team looks like. Look at all four 21st century Sox champions. None of them won less than 96 games. All of them played near or better than .600 ball and the last Sox champion was a juggernaut that won 108. The Sox look like a team that could reach the high 80s in wins. The last two Sox teams that made the postseason doing that got their butts kicked by the A's both times who were far superior to them, back in 1988 and 1990. Red Sox fans arent accustomed to seeing struggling Red Sox teams that are decent or good but not particularly great all of the sudden become World Series champs or participants. The last time this happened was way back in 1967 when they won 92. So I do understand why there would be an image of what a Red Sox championship team looks like or wouldnt look like. I think this year its kind of besides the point, which I think right now is to just make the damn playoffs and give themselves that small chance.
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Post by julyanmorley on Jul 22, 2024 11:39:13 GMT -5
How many seasons in a row do people want to punt - like what exactly is going to be so dramatically different next season that is going to ensure the Red Sox have overwhelming playoff odds? Marcelo Mayer being a 22 year old rookie? A ace starting pitcher free agency signing that is neither guaranteed to either happen or work out? They are 53-45, the 10th best record in MLB. Like how many more wins do you expect them to have than this at this point next year If there's nothing special about this season, then there's also no reason to give up any kind of premium to improve the team. Traditionally teams that close deals have convinced themselves that they're in a high leverage situation and so can give up 2-3x future wins for near term wins.
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Post by incandenza on Jul 22, 2024 11:47:14 GMT -5
How many seasons in a row do people want to punt - like what exactly is going to be so dramatically different next season that is going to ensure the Red Sox have overwhelming playoff odds? Marcelo Mayer being a 22 year old rookie? A ace starting pitcher free agency signing that is neither guaranteed to either happen or work out? They are 53-45, the 10th best record in MLB. Like how many more wins do you expect them to have than this at this point next year If there's nothing special about this season, then there's also no reason to give up any kind of premium to improve the team. Traditionally teams that close deals have convinced themselves that they're in a high leverage situation and so can give up 2-3x future wins for near term wins. Sounds like the Red Sox are in a position to take a mixed approach, make minor moves, or stand pat at the deadline. Unfortunately those alternatives have been ruled out by the GM so we're going to be doing something nonsensical instead. (Or else Breslow is just a disingenuous communicator, which is what I'm hoping is the case.)
ADD: Wait, different response... I wonder if the inevitable logic here is that Breslow is going to try *and fail* to be a real buyer. Only a handful of teams are real sellers and there are very few desirable trade targets available, and there are a bunch of buyers that are in more of a high-leverage spot than the Red Sox and so will be willing to part with more prospect capital. The Red Sox are just in no position to win any sort of bidding war for anything other than marginal pieces.
Much like how they convinced themselves the past two offseasons that they were going to trade for a young controllable starter, maybe they're convincing themselves right now that they're going to be buyers at the deadline; but it's going to turn out that the prices are higher than they're willing to pay. And Breslow's "pick a lane" rhetoric is going to morph into an ex post facto "we believe in the guys we have."
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asm18
Veteran
Posts: 2,497
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Post by asm18 on Jul 22, 2024 12:18:27 GMT -5
I think the acquisition cost question is a legitimate question. This season is a ship so-to-speak, and the ship has holes that might prevent it from making to port. It’s perfectly fair to question, “is this worth what it would cost to fix this and get it where it needs to go?” I suppose it depends on how much you care about the ship.
Realistically though, if they don’t really do anything one way or another, the lack of pitching depth has a very good chance to sink them in the end. Which means for all intents and purposes… you do kinda have to pick a lane, unless you want take your chances with the leaky boat
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Post by scottysmalls on Jul 22, 2024 12:23:05 GMT -5
My current deadline prediction:
Add France/Turner/Canha and some decent reliever for nothing and also a backend SP for something small. Overall similar-ish impact to 2023 deadline but louder names/better press approach.
My F it let’s get weird maximum fun plan that I don’t actually think they should do:
In - Robert Jr., Eflin, Turner, 2xRP, Prospects Out - Abreu, O’Neill, Jansen, Prospects
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Post by ematz1423 on Jul 22, 2024 12:33:02 GMT -5
My current deadline prediction: Add France/Turner/Canha and some decent reliever for nothing and also a backend SP for something small. Overall similar-ish impact to 2023 deadline but louder names/better press approach. My F it let’s get weird maximum fun plan that I don’t actually think they should do: In - Robert Jr., Eflin, Turner, 2xRP, Prospects Out - Abreu, O’Neill, Jansen, Prospects Prediction #1 is how I am leaning as well. Small adds that don't cost much and is probably the route I am hoping they go for. Feels like prices are going to be unreasonable on actual impact players like Robert, Crochet, Etc.
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Post by carmenfanzone on Jul 22, 2024 12:59:42 GMT -5
I was originally "all In" for adding this year for some of the reasons stated above. I don't like punting a season away especially when the team is near a playoff spot. And the fact they lost a series to a very good team on the road doesn't bother me. The act that there now appear to be more holes in this team than there appeared to be a couple of weeks ago does bother me. A couple of weeks ago I thought, perhaps foolishly that Casas would be back by the end of July. That now does to appear to be the case and means there is a greater need for help, preferably right-handed help, at first base. Two or three weeks ago their 2 best set up people were not on the disabled list with one of them already apparently going to be out longer than first expected. So now they rather urgently need relief pitching help. This is in addition to the starter they always needed and still need.
The fact that they have more pressing needs makes it less likely, in my opinion, they will be able to adequately fill them all.. So while I was originally OK with giving up prospects for rentals, I now am not sure that ia a great idea. I hope they still try to get a starting pitcher, but one who is under control for at least next year as well. I still would not sell, but I am less willing to see them part with prospects unless the return will be someone who can help next year.
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