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Post by costpet on Jul 25, 2024 6:32:57 GMT -5
It's remarkable how many poor decisions are the result of applying the wrong metaphor - like one that implies a binary decision in a situation that is not binary. What if, instead of "picking a lane," Breslow were to:
- "balance" present and future value? - "hold" the hand he was dealt rather than "raise" or "fold"? - "have his cake and eat it too" by improving the team now and in the future, like they did in 2022? - "chart a middle course" to avoid dangers on both sides?
The sentence in the article from Breslow: "At some point, we need to stop with the stupid analogies and put the turn signal on… " is funny because I guess the implication is that we need to stop the stupid analogies and move on to metaphors (bonus grammar police edition: saying that they were going to "pick a lane" was already a metaphor not an analogy so he's just extending his own original metaphor here) Breslow is trolling me personally isn't he
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Post by costpet on Jul 25, 2024 6:33:14 GMT -5
I've always hated English Majors.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jul 25, 2024 6:59:06 GMT -5
I'm still aiming for a division title. Both the Yankees and Orioles have bigger pitching issues than the Sox. The Yankees biggest trade chips are Dominguez (TJ) and Jones who's sporting a low OPS and a 37% strikeout rate. The Orioles need multiple arms with only Burns performing well.
As far as I'm concerned it's ours for the taking but not with minimalist trades.
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Jul 25, 2024 7:07:42 GMT -5
Oddly enough, I'm more interested in a trade that involves one or more "stud" prospects – and it's not about competing (just) this year.
I don't know exactly what that would look like, but the Red Sox need to consolidate some star power and not just have a bunch of 1-2 WAR spare parts. Obviously I don't want to trade top guys for a rental, but I'm definitely willing to trade some prospect capital for a significant upgrade with several years of control.
I’ve also said in the past I’m totally open to trading Anthony, but I just don’t think there’s any players out there (or available for that matter) that are worth a trade of him. Skubal is really the only one, but we don’t have the resources like the Orioles do to pull that one off. I am of the mindset nobody should be deemed untouchable including any of the big prospects so I agree there. Like you say the worth has to be there, so for any of them it would have to be a big time franchise type guy with at least a few years of control. I also agree with point #2 I don't see anyone moving teams that fits the bill at the deadline, perhaps in the offseason though. I'm expecting the foursome of Mayer/Anthony/Teel/Campbell to be off limits this deadline so for that reason I'm not too afraid of giving up too many future wins for the stretch run this year. I do think some combo of Perales, Cespedes, Bleis, Yorke type of group will be dealt which me being a prospect hugger will hurt a bit. I'm not going to throw my hands up and grab my pitchfork before any trades are made though and I don't really understand why some on here are already kind of doing so.
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Post by pappyman99 on Jul 25, 2024 7:20:37 GMT -5
I’m on the Taillon, And eovaldi and move Pivetta to the bullpen train… even if that train doesn’t exist.
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Post by patford on Jul 25, 2024 7:29:15 GMT -5
I’ve also said in the past I’m totally open to trading Anthony, but I just don’t think there’s any players out there (or available for that matter) that are worth a trade of him. Skubal is really the only one, but we don’t have the resources like the Orioles do to pull that one off. I am of the mindset nobody should be deemed untouchable including any of the big prospects so I agree there. Like you say the worth has to be there, so for any of them it would have to be a big time franchise type guy with at least a few years of control. I also agree with point #2 I don't see anyone moving teams that fits the bill at the deadline, perhaps in the offseason though. I'm expecting the foursome of Mayer/Anthony/Teel/Campbell to be off limits this deadline so for that reason I'm not too afraid of giving up too many future wins for the stretch run this year. I do think some combo of Perales, Cespedes, Bleis, Yorke type of group will be dealt which me being a prospect hugger will hurt a bit. I'm not going to throw my hands up and grab my pitchfork before any trades are made though and I don't really understand why some on here are already kind of doing so. I'd assume it's because some people believe the Sox are not going to win the WS this year due to injuries to a bunch of key pieces but are right on the cusp of being a great team. There are loads of prospects I'd have no problem being traded and a fair number of players on the 26 man roster I think should be traded. Trading any of Perales, Cespedes, Bleis seems like a bad idea to me because their current value is depressed. Perales and Cespedes are not only very young and unproven at high levels but they are both injured. Bleis is not having a good year coming off surgery and his value is not where it could be. Yorke should probably be on the 26 man roster.
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Post by patford on Jul 25, 2024 7:35:24 GMT -5
I just don't value wins over the next 10 weeks more than wins over the next several years. It would be unprecedented for a wild card chasing team to make a big splash at the deadline so ultimately what happens probably won't matter much. We'll see. My smart ass comment about Breslow announcing the lane was because it's a negative free roll. If he makes a deal and everyone is happy he didn't gain anything by saying that. If he does something underwhelming and the team misses the playoffs well now I'm going to be hearing this line repeated all offseason. Yeah hopefully he just promised Cora he would do something as part of the contract negotiation and will do something along the lines of Paxton and Turner for a a bag of beans and a bag of rice.
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Jul 25, 2024 7:37:49 GMT -5
I am of the mindset nobody should be deemed untouchable including any of the big prospects so I agree there. Like you say the worth has to be there, so for any of them it would have to be a big time franchise type guy with at least a few years of control. I also agree with point #2 I don't see anyone moving teams that fits the bill at the deadline, perhaps in the offseason though. I'm expecting the foursome of Mayer/Anthony/Teel/Campbell to be off limits this deadline so for that reason I'm not too afraid of giving up too many future wins for the stretch run this year. I do think some combo of Perales, Cespedes, Bleis, Yorke type of group will be dealt which me being a prospect hugger will hurt a bit. I'm not going to throw my hands up and grab my pitchfork before any trades are made though and I don't really understand why some on here are already kind of doing so. I'd assume it's because some people believe the Sox are not going to win the WS this year due to injuries to a bunch of key pieces but are right on the cusp of being a great team. There are loads of prospects I'd have no problem being traded and a fair number of players on the 26 man roster I think should be traded. Trading any of Perales, Cespedes, Bleis seems like a bad idea to me because their current value is depressed. Perales and Cespedes are not only very young and unproven at high levels but they are both injured. Bleis is not having a good year coming off surgery and his value is not where it could be. Yorke should probably be on the 26 man roster. To each their own but that's just too simplistic a way to look at things to me. If they make the playoffs anyone can win it. I'm sure most D'Backs and maybe even a lot of Rangers fans thought last July that their teams wouldn't make the WS and in the Rangers situation eventually win it. So to think that oh no we can't win even if we get in the playoffs to me is a poor way of looking at things. I also think there are ripple effects to making the playoffs, The Red Sox make more money, Breslow can go to Henry and Co. and say look at that this young roster made the playoffs we're ready to go make an FA splash, the young players get a taste of the playoffs and more of an understanding of what it takes to win.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jul 25, 2024 7:47:44 GMT -5
If Yankee Cole needs TJ, they are hosed for this and next year. He missed the first half due to elbow pain and is now pitching like crap. How many times have we seen this.
I don't want rentals unless it's a minor deal. I want a multi year splash.
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Post by patford on Jul 25, 2024 7:59:33 GMT -5
If Yankee Cole needs TJ, they are hosed for this and next year. He missed the first half due to elbow pain and is now pitching like crap. How many times have we seen this. I don't want rentals unless it's a minor deal. I want a multi year splash. In my opinion the Yankees aren't even as good as the Sox. I thought they would finish last in the division. My idea for a big splash is Burnes as a free agent.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jul 25, 2024 8:05:08 GMT -5
If Yankee Cole needs TJ, they are hosed for this and next year. He missed the first half due to elbow pain and is now pitching like crap. How many times have we seen this. I don't want rentals unless it's a minor deal. I want a multi year splash. In my opinion the Yankees aren't even as good as the Sox. I thought they would finish last in the division. My idea for a big splash is Burnes as a free agent. That doesn't affect this year. Burnes was my #1 trade target this past year.
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Post by patford on Jul 25, 2024 8:05:52 GMT -5
I'd assume it's because some people believe the Sox are not going to win the WS this year due to injuries to a bunch of key pieces but are right on the cusp of being a great team. There are loads of prospects I'd have no problem being traded and a fair number of players on the 26 man roster I think should be traded. Trading any of Perales, Cespedes, Bleis seems like a bad idea to me because their current value is depressed. Perales and Cespedes are not only very young and unproven at high levels but they are both injured. Bleis is not having a good year coming off surgery and his value is not where it could be. Yorke should probably be on the 26 man roster. To each their own but that's just too simplistic a way to look at things to me. If they make the playoffs anyone can win it. I'm sure most D'Backs and maybe even a lot of Rangers fans thought last July that their teams wouldn't make the WS and in the Rangers situation eventually win it. So to think that oh no we can't win even if we get in the playoffs to me is a poor way of looking at things. I also think there are ripple effects to making the playoffs, The Red Sox make more money, Breslow can go to Henry and Co. and say look at that this young roster made the playoffs we're ready to go make an FA splash, the young players get a taste of the playoffs and more of an understanding of what it takes to win. That is true. There's a lot of parity and very few juggernaut type teams. Baseball much more so than football or basketball is a sport where teams go hot or cold and a great team could collapse or a middle of the pack team could roll through the post season. My guess is in order to get a high end pitcher it would take one of the top three plus a couple of other high ceiling players.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jul 25, 2024 8:08:31 GMT -5
I want Crotchet and Thorpe from the White Sox.
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Jul 25, 2024 8:17:18 GMT -5
I want Crotchet and Thorpe from the White Sox. Why would the Chisox trade Thorpe? They have him for dirt cheap the next 6.5 years. I keep waffling on Crochet but overall would take the plunge on him if he can be had without dealing one of the big 3, which I have my doubts they'd accept a deal if it didn't include one of them other than just blowing them away with pure volume of guys in the 5-15 range.
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asm18
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Post by asm18 on Jul 25, 2024 8:28:34 GMT -5
Breslow Trade Partners (and number of trades):
Mets - 4x - Slaten, Zach Short (in), Pablo Reyes, Heinemen
Braves - 2x - Sale, Zach Short (out)
Cubs - 1 (Garrett Cooper) Tigers - 1 (Wintenger) Cardinals - 1 (O’Neill) Brewers - 1 (Vladimir Gutierrez) Royals - 1 (Schrieber) Mariners - 1 (Urias) Yankees - 1 (Verdugo)
Is there a Mets or Braves trade that makes sense for both sides
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Post by bmoneyproblemz on Jul 25, 2024 8:33:51 GMT -5
I just don't value wins over the next 10 weeks more than wins over the next several years. It would be unprecedented for a wild card chasing team to make a big splash at the deadline so ultimately what happens probably won't matter much. We'll see. My smart ass comment about Breslow announcing the lane was because it's a negative free roll. If he makes a deal and everyone is happy he didn't gain anything by saying that. If he does something underwhelming and the team misses the playoffs well now I'm going to be hearing this line repeated all offseason. To be honest, I don't understand this thinking. When your team is overachieving as much as the Sox are right now, I think we have to take our analyst hats off ("well, they're going to come back to the mean, so why risk the future?") and focus on adding to a team. There is a 40 man crunch coming and we cannot just hoard prospects for the sake of hoarding them. Yes, we need a strong pipeline (it would be great to have 1-2 players a year come up to the bigs), but there needs to be a balance. Farm system rankings themselves are not going to win a world series. I know Dombrowski got grief here, but his biggest success was picking who to keep and who to trade. I think right now Breslow needs to look at our top 10, figure out who is going to stay, and use the capital we have to make a move to better the team for this year and the years to come. For the past 5 years I've heard about building for the future, but we need to fill out where we signifcantly lack (young pitching) through trading.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jul 25, 2024 8:36:31 GMT -5
I want Crotchet and Thorpe from the White Sox. Why would the Chisox trade Thorpe? They have him for dirt cheap the next 6.5 years. I keep waffling on Crochet but overall would take the plunge on him if he can be had without dealing one of the big 3, which I have my doubts they'd accept a deal if it didn't include one of them other than just blowing them away with pure volume of guys in the 5-15 range. The WS would trade Thorpe if the package coming back was solid enough and it definitely would include one of the big 3 plus. Example: Mayer or Anthony (Anthony fits the WS better) One of Perales (TJ), Bleis or Cespedes. (Bleis is the best fit) Three from: Yorke, Valdez, Wikeleman, Fitts, Sandlin, Lugo, Meidroth or the like That would clear space for draftees and the 40 man this offseason. From the WS perspective, rebuilds are never 1 year.
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Post by scottysmalls on Jul 25, 2024 8:38:21 GMT -5
People keep saying they have a 40 man crunch coming. Do they have a bad one? I can't do all the math on it right now but my recollection is the Red Sox situation actually is not that bad this year.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Jul 25, 2024 8:38:38 GMT -5
The odds that Crochet and all of the big three are under RED Sox control at any point are pretty remote. I think if you want Crochet (which I do), you need to decide which of the three you think is least likely to become an all-star and make the deal. Two seasons plus one stretch run in hand are worth six in the bushes.
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Jul 25, 2024 8:43:51 GMT -5
People keep saying they have a 40 man crunch coming. Do they have a bad one? I can't do all the math on it right now but my recollection is the Red Sox situation actually is not that bad this year. Looking at their rule 5 eligible guys, I would say that no it doesn't really appear to me that they have a bad 40 man crunch coming this offseason. Looking at the list on this site the only three guys I am seeing that are a certain that they should protect are Yorke, Lugo and Fitts. There is a decent sized list of maybes but I feel like you can say that every year.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jul 25, 2024 8:44:38 GMT -5
People keep saying they have a 40 man crunch coming. Do they have a bad one? I can't do all the math on it right now but my recollection is the Red Sox situation actually is not that bad this year. Your mileage may vary on "bad", but there are a ton of guys eligible. www.soxprospects.com/rule5.htm
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jul 25, 2024 8:48:22 GMT -5
People keep saying they have a 40 man crunch coming. Do they have a bad one? I can't do all the math on it right now but my recollection is the Red Sox situation actually is not that bad this year. Looking at their rule 5 eligible guys, I would say that no it doesn't really appear to me that they have a bad 40 man crunch coming this offseason. Looking at the list on this site the only three guys I am seeing that are a certain that they should protect are Yorke, Lugo and Fitts. There is a decent sized list of maybes but I feel like you can say that every year. I think this is underselling it a bit. There are 9 top-30 guys that are eligible (for reference Ryan Fernandez peaked at 26 and some were upset he didn't get protected), plus some of the near-majors relief arms such as Zeferjahn and Gambrell. There will definitely be guys that don't get protected that would not be fun to lose.
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Jul 25, 2024 8:56:06 GMT -5
Looking at their rule 5 eligible guys, I would say that no it doesn't really appear to me that they have a bad 40 man crunch coming this offseason. Looking at the list on this site the only three guys I am seeing that are a certain that they should protect are Yorke, Lugo and Fitts. There is a decent sized list of maybes but I feel like you can say that every year. I think this is underselling it a bit. There are 9 top-30 guys that are eligible (for reference Ryan Fernandez peaked at 26 and some were upset he didn't get protected), plus some of the near-majors relief arms such as Zeferjahn and Gambrell. There will definitely be guys that don't get protected that would not be fun to lose. I'm not going to cross reference the full top 30 but just one guy for instance Allan Castro. He's #17 right now according to the site, he's in A+ right now. Is anyone taking a guy that far away? I doubt it. There will be some arms that aren't protected and might get picked as it is probably easier for a team to pick a pitcher with stuff and stash them in the BP for a year than it is to take a batter who probably isn't ready yet and will struggle to find any PT. I really don't think it is all that much of a crunch as opposed to other seasons or other teams are running into.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jul 25, 2024 8:57:06 GMT -5
People keep saying they have a 40 man crunch coming. Do they have a bad one? I can't do all the math on it right now but my recollection is the Red Sox situation actually is not that bad this year. Your mileage may vary on "bad", but there are a ton of guys eligible. www.soxprospects.com/rule5.htmAnd if we trade for 2 (or 3) longer term assets, that's 2 or 3 less spots. There are several that would be taken, especially relievers. Bastardo can be stashed, Zeferjahn would likely be taken.
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Post by scottysmalls on Jul 25, 2024 9:05:25 GMT -5
People keep saying they have a 40 man crunch coming. Do they have a bad one? I can't do all the math on it right now but my recollection is the Red Sox situation actually is not that bad this year. Your mileage may vary on "bad", but there are a ton of guys eligible. www.soxprospects.com/rule5.htmJust going to think out loud as I walk my self through it: Okay so I see Bastardo, Castro, Dobbins, Fitts, Gambrell, Garcia, Guerrero, Jordan, Kavadas, Lugo, Paulino, Yorke and Zeferjahn as guys who might merit consideration. Of those Yorke seems like the only 100% lock to me. Fitts kinda feels like he's in a similar spot to Ward and Drohan over the last couple years but I expect they protect him. Kavadas and Jordan feel impossible to roster. Castro and Garcia feel too far away. Paulino and Lugo are strong considerations. Then you have a bunch of reliever types and you probably want to protect a couple but I don't know which ones. So it's like 2-6 players you would want to add from this group. You probably accept that one or two pitchers will be taken. In the offseason you have O'Neill, Jansen, Pivetta, Keller, Smith, Anderson and Martin coming off the 40 man (6). Whitlock, Story, Casas, Giolito, Hendriks will need to be added and maybe Murphy too (5 or 6). Call that +1 spot. Other guys on the edge of the current 40: Dalbec, Heineman, Horn, Westbrook, Speas, Wingenter, Walter, Mata, Weissert, Campbell Heineman's spot is irrelevant because it will need to go to him or another backup catcher. Dalbec and Westbrook feel easily DFA'able for two of the position players. And at least three of those pitchers could go to protect rule 5 guys if you want. So that kind of covers the rule 5. However, you probably also want to replace some of the guys who are departing through FA or acquisitions (like signing another starting pitcher for Pivetta's spot). There are other guys on the 40 who could also be trade bait who aren't in the rule 5 list though (names often discussed include Yoshida, Valdez, Abreu, Grissom, etc.). So my takeaway is that at some point I think you want to trade like two players who probably deserve to be on a 40 man, but it could happen either now or in the off-season, so I don't see this as a deadline requirement, but it would be nice if they could get a useful piece now for a borderline 40 man reliever, but those guys just aren't really worth much (if we could pull off another Urias-esque deal that's great).
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