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chaimtime
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Post by chaimtime on Jul 30, 2024 7:59:05 GMT -5
I think the odds they trade Pivetta, by all accounts one of the main veteran leaders on the team, are very slim. I think people who want to trade him are really underestimating how much that would disrupt the clubhouse.
IIRC, they already have more 45 or better prospects than anyone in baseball per Fangraphs. I don’t think it’s imperative to add a couple more guys to the middle tier of prospects, and I don’t think there are any other teams as desperate as Houston to take advantage of anyway. I expect the spreadsheets to call that Kikuchi deal the biggest overpay of the deadline, or at least one of them.
To me, if you aren’t getting a pitcher who clearly slots into the second tier of prospects below the big 3, it’s too marginal an improvement long-term to be worth what I think would be a major hit to the MLB roster. I don’t think any team will offer that, so I don’t think the trade will happen.
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Post by incandenza on Jul 30, 2024 7:59:57 GMT -5
Your final trade deadline fangraphs playoff odds for the Boston Red Sox: 43.3%.
2.0% championship odds.
Fairly annoying, but a notch better than they were the last two seasons.
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Post by incandenza on Jul 30, 2024 8:08:22 GMT -5
I think the odds they trade Pivetta, by all accounts one of the main veteran leaders on the team, are very slim. I think people who want to trade him are really underestimating how much that would disrupt the clubhouse. IIRC, they already have more 45 or better prospects than anyone in baseball per Fangraphs. I don’t think it’s imperative to add a couple more guys to the middle tier of prospects, and I don’t think there are any other teams as desperate as Houston to take advantage of anyway. I expect the spreadsheets to call that Kikuchi deal the biggest overpay of the deadline, or at least one of them. To me, if you aren’t getting a pitcher who clearly slots into the second tier of prospects below the big 3, it’s too marginal an improvement long-term to be worth what I think would be a major hit to the MLB roster. I don’t think any team will offer that, so I don’t think the trade will happen. I do think it's relevant that the Red Sox have either a very solid pre-arb player, a long-term signed player, or a top 100 prospect at literally every position, and even a growing stable of young pitching talent. This is not like 2020-22 where they needed to find creative ways to bolster the farm system; like you say, a mid-tier prospect is probably going to be redundant with young talent they already have and so will add fairly little marginal value.
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Jul 30, 2024 8:12:09 GMT -5
I think the odds they trade Pivetta, by all accounts one of the main veteran leaders on the team, are very slim. I think people who want to trade him are really underestimating how much that would disrupt the clubhouse. IIRC, they already have more 45 or better prospects than anyone in baseball per Fangraphs. I don’t think it’s imperative to add a couple more guys to the middle tier of prospects, and I don’t think there are any other teams as desperate as Houston to take advantage of anyway. I expect the spreadsheets to call that Kikuchi deal the biggest overpay of the deadline, or at least one of them. To me, if you aren’t getting a pitcher who clearly slots into the second tier of prospects below the big 3, it’s too marginal an improvement long-term to be worth what I think would be a major hit to the MLB roster. I don’t think any team will offer that, so I don’t think the trade will happen. Looking at these prices I absolutely believe Pivetta could get a pitching prospect in that tier
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Post by notstarboard on Jul 30, 2024 8:12:30 GMT -5
In my view they’re still in the ramp up phase to the window. Competing this year is not the mirage Bloom sold us the past two years when we should solely have been sellers. I’m good with buying a longer term asset like the Yorke trade. So I’m also ok with selling Kenley or Pivetta for a good asset 2025-2028. Even if it harms us this year making the playoffs. My eye is on dominating after this year. They’re entertaining seeing the kids playing even if the season ends in September rather than another week later The good news is that the Red Sox can do both. We can have a playoff run, maybe even similar to the DBacks last year. I saw Cotillo's post and I do agree you have to listen but I do not think it's wise to subtract from a team trying to push to make the playoffs. Kenley has turned a corner again and seems fully invested to winning here. Who knows maybe he even comes back! The only way I'm selling this year is if we then take the prospects we get and move them for other pieces that can help us win. The players on the team are not just robots. They are professionals and great professionals, but imagine being Devers and basically pleading for help the last two deadlines, and this year the FO says they're going to help only to sell the day of? Why piss off your franchise player and your re-signed manager? Why give up on this season when the players are fully invested and many have taken great strides forward? Give them help, don't blow up the farm but this is what the farm is for. Idk, if I was looking at the ~25% playoff odds they had in years past I would understand the team not buying, but maybe that's just me. Of course players are going to want reinforcements, but that doesn't mean they don't understand context. Especially Devers, whose future teams will benefit from any prospects acquired, should be able to understand that. This year buying on the aggregate makes sense to me, but if another team is willing to overpay for a guy who is gone after the season and who you won't be much worse without this year, I still think they should do it. You definitely don't move a guy like Pivetta unless the return is nice à la Kikuchi, though.
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Post by awalkinthepark on Jul 30, 2024 8:26:43 GMT -5
Look how full Fenway has been recently. It’s been a while. I think you absolutely can’t sell off major pieces at this point - major defined as players they’re obviously unable to replace in house. What message does that send to the fans at large, as well as a clubhouse full of a lot of players who are expected to be around for subsequent playoff runs. There is meaningful value to playoff appearances, even in years where you don’t have a perceived juggernaut. Lots of examples of that type of team getting bounced, too. Not only the message but the timing just seems completely wrong to me, for 2 reasons:
- There isn't going to be a ton of roster turnover over the next few years at the major league level. If the Red Sox make a run at the playoffs in 2025, it will be on the backs of Duran, Devers, Houck, Crawford, Bello, Rafaela, Casas, Yoshida, Abreu. There will be movements on the margins - Pivetta, O'Neill and Kenley - but you might as well go for it in 2024 if your team is mostly going to look the same in 2025. - This farm system is already loaded with 45+ FV guys, adding more to it does nothing except exacerbate the rule 5 crunch in the winter. The Yorke-Priester swap makes sense because it balances the system out a bit more and Yorke would have been added to the 40 man soon anyway, but other than that we should be looking to move the 40-45 FV guys we have, not add more of them. The benefit of having that kind of depth is that it allows you to make the Danny Jansen trades...
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Post by lronhoyabembe on Jul 30, 2024 8:40:19 GMT -5
The Red Sox have one of the best farms in baseball. They already have young, controlled talent at every position. My point is that there are diminishing returns to continuing to add prospects to the organization. I'm only trading Pivetta if we are getting back a pitcher that can immediately approximate his production on the mound. Bloss is interesting but it looks like he needs more development before he can contribute at the big-league level. The Astros situation is also unique in that their competitive window seems to be closing.
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asm18
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Post by asm18 on Jul 30, 2024 8:42:40 GMT -5
Your final trade deadline fangraphs playoff odds for the Boston Red Sox: 43.3%. 2.0% championship odds. Fairly annoying, but a notch better than they were the last two seasons. Trade Deadline Record and Odds 2024 - 56-49 (43.3% playoff odds) 2023 - 57-50 (30% playoff odds) 2022 - 53-52 (33% playoff odds) Recognizing that the playoff odds account for how deep an AL playoff pool is, it is funny to me that a 2022 team that was barely .500 with a fully hurt rotation and a PTSD-inducing bullpen had better odds than a 2023 team that probably just needed like one competent warm body of a starter at the deadline to help stay afloat
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Post by sxfan on Jul 30, 2024 8:47:36 GMT -5
I'm at the opposite end of the rentals, Jack Flaherty would really interest me if I'm Breslow. It would be up behoove the Sox to get a guy like him and use a 6 man rotation in August. Give Kutter and Houck extra rest, and put someone in the bullpen due to performance or a injury by September. I don't know how much I trust Paxton at this point either.
As long as the cost isn't prohibitive, like a Fitts headlined package, I'd be good with that.
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Jul 30, 2024 8:52:05 GMT -5
I'm at the opposite end of the rentals, Jack Flaherty would really interest me if I'm Breslow. It would be up behoove the Sox to get a guy like him and use a 6 man rotation in August. Give Kutter and Houck extra rest, and put someone in the bullpen due to performance or an injury by September. I don't know how much I trust Paxton at this point either. As long as the cost isn't prohibitive, like a Fitts headlined package, I'd be good with that. He’s been pitching better than Kikuchi, probably not getting him for a package headlined by Fitts
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chaimtime
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Post by chaimtime on Jul 30, 2024 8:53:33 GMT -5
I think the odds they trade Pivetta, by all accounts one of the main veteran leaders on the team, are very slim. I think people who want to trade him are really underestimating how much that would disrupt the clubhouse. IIRC, they already have more 45 or better prospects than anyone in baseball per Fangraphs. I don’t think it’s imperative to add a couple more guys to the middle tier of prospects, and I don’t think there are any other teams as desperate as Houston to take advantage of anyway. I expect the spreadsheets to call that Kikuchi deal the biggest overpay of the deadline, or at least one of them. To me, if you aren’t getting a pitcher who clearly slots into the second tier of prospects below the big 3, it’s too marginal an improvement long-term to be worth what I think would be a major hit to the MLB roster. I don’t think any team will offer that, so I don’t think the trade will happen. Looking at these prices I absolutely believe Pivetta could get a pitching prospect in that tier Which deal makes you think that? I don’t think you’re gonna get anyone to bite for Pivetta like the Astros did for Kikuchi. Like others have pointed out, the party’s almost over there and they probably have more motivation to overpay to get a deal over the line than anyone. I know the White Sox are incompetent and the Rays are always two steps ahead of everyone else on prospects, but the Fedde, Civale, and Eflin deals would all be too light for me. I just don’t see it happening.
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Post by bmoneyproblemz on Jul 30, 2024 8:53:38 GMT -5
The good news is that the Red Sox can do both. We can have a playoff run, maybe even similar to the DBacks last year. I saw Cotillo's post and I do agree you have to listen but I do not think it's wise to subtract from a team trying to push to make the playoffs. Kenley has turned a corner again and seems fully invested to winning here. Who knows maybe he even comes back! The only way I'm selling this year is if we then take the prospects we get and move them for other pieces that can help us win. The players on the team are not just robots. They are professionals and great professionals, but imagine being Devers and basically pleading for help the last two deadlines, and this year the FO says they're going to help only to sell the day of? Why piss off your franchise player and your re-signed manager? Why give up on this season when the players are fully invested and many have taken great strides forward? Give them help, don't blow up the farm but this is what the farm is for. Idk, if I was looking at the ~25% playoff odds they had in years past I would understand the team not buying, but maybe that's just me. Of course players are going to want reinforcements, but that doesn't mean they don't understand context. Especially Devers, whose future teams will benefit from any prospects acquired, should be able to understand that. This year buying on the aggregate makes sense to me, but if another team is willing to overpay for a guy who is gone after the season and who you won't be much worse without this year, I still think they should do it. You definitely don't move a guy like Pivetta unless the return is nice à la Kikuchi, though. That's fine, as I mentioned the Pivetta thing is interesting but also very tricky. He is considered a clubhouse leader, as is Kenley. When you are in the middle of a playoff run, it is not very wise to move from those guys. I think we need to realize that. This is more than just numbers and playoff odds: What were the playoff odds at the beginning of the season vs. now? Sooner or later you have to take math out of this and put on your human hat. I think this is where Bloom got some areas wrong with his trade deadlines: he couldn't balance both sides. I think we need to factor in the eye test and the "it" factor of this team, make some moves that improve the squad, and keep our top 5 prospects (now including Montgomery) in place. I'm not for blowing up the farm but I am for improving this team in the now to try and get into the playoffs where literally anything can happen.
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asm18
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Post by asm18 on Jul 30, 2024 8:53:48 GMT -5
Probably a good list of shiny objects who could be moved:
Apparently the buzz is Snell might not get moved, but who knows. The Giants cannot QO him and as discussed at length they bare risk for him getting hurt and paying him his player option - but it’s been a rough few years in San Fran and they’re 4 games out of a WC spot. Maybe their GM is focused on how he spins things to his bosses than the best trade return and logical move 🤷♂️
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Post by soxpatsceltics on Jul 30, 2024 8:56:34 GMT -5
Look how full Fenway has been recently. It’s been a while. I think you absolutely can’t sell off major pieces at this point - major defined as players they’re obviously unable to replace in house. What message does that send to the fans at large, as well as a clubhouse full of a lot of players who are expected to be around for subsequent playoff runs. There is meaningful value to playoff appearances, even in years where you don’t have a perceived juggernaut. Lots of examples of that type of team getting bounced, too. All due respect to Nick Pivetta, but if fans start not showing up because he's traded then those aren't real fans. I guess the closest comparison you could make to Pivetta would be the Vazquez trade... and Vazquez was a much bigger part of both the team and clubhouse than Pivetta. If I could get 2 45 FV guys similar to what Vazquez got in Abreu and Valdez then I take that trade every day. For me the line between hoarding too many prospects and where prospects coming in reaches a diminishing return is that 45 FV line... I would not trade Pivetta for a handful of 40 guys, 45 or higher guys, especially at positions of need (pitching)or close to the majors will have an impact no matter what. Even Valdez who we could consider as a 45 guy that hasn't especially worked out has real value, it seems like he was almost used as a 1 for 1 to get a reclamation former top 50 prospect.
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Post by incandenza on Jul 30, 2024 8:58:04 GMT -5
Nestor Cortes?
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Post by threeifbaerga on Jul 30, 2024 9:01:35 GMT -5
I would -love- that. He's so fun to watch and easy to root for.
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asm18
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Post by asm18 on Jul 30, 2024 9:04:03 GMT -5
There were rumors by several reporters yesterday Yankees were trying to flip him and get an upgrade. Aka the “2022 Jordan Montgomery.”
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Post by incandenza on Jul 30, 2024 9:05:52 GMT -5
I would -love- that. He's so fun to watch and easy to root for. But why would he be available, was the reason for my question mark. But I googled it up real quick and it turns out that the Yankees may be INDECISIVE at the trade deadline (i.e., open to a savvy balance of buying and selling to make their team better both now and in the future).
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Post by sxfan on Jul 30, 2024 9:08:36 GMT -5
I'm at the opposite end of the rentals, Jack Flaherty would really interest me if I'm Breslow. It would be up behoove the Sox to get a guy like him and use a 6 man rotation in August. Give Kutter and Houck extra rest, and put someone in the bullpen due to performance or an injury by September. I don't know how much I trust Paxton at this point either. As long as the cost isn't prohibitive, like a Fitts headlined package, I'd be good with that. He’s been pitching better than Kikuchi, probably not getting him for a package headlined by Fitts We'll have to see. There's going to be some team left without a seat, and they'll have to take best package available. Astros got desperate and didn't want to get shut out, but who knows what other team wants to do that? Fitts plus package is better than a QO, so that's what I was basing my rational on.
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jdb
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Post by jdb on Jul 30, 2024 9:10:37 GMT -5
Kiner Falefa is a guy I’d like. Would add some defensive stability in the middle of the infield.
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asm18
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Post by asm18 on Jul 30, 2024 9:14:24 GMT -5
Rosenthal was saying the Sox are targeting a right handed hitter (infielder?), relief help, and a starter. He also said they’ve checked in on Garrett Crochet, I assume in the same way I’ve checked the prices on an Aston Martin
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 30, 2024 9:52:39 GMT -5
Rosenthal was saying the Sox are targeting a right handed hitter (infielder?), relief help, and a starter. He also said they’ve checked in on Garrett Crochet, I assume in the same way I’ve checked the prices on an Aston Martin Connecting the dots I'm guessing Rengifo from the Angels if the plan is to let Grissom stay in AAA. Maybe Luis Garcia from the Angels. Maybe Valdez plus Wiki plus a lower level prospect that might not be somebody a lot of us would want to see go like am Allan Castro?
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Post by notstarboard on Jul 30, 2024 9:53:16 GMT -5
I don't understand the Sox need for a starter at this point. Is this yearning for another frontline starter, or worry about guys like Houck and Crawford being shut down with workload concerns, or worry about the potential impact of injuries? Houck, Crawford, Pivetta, Bello, and Paxton is a decent rotation. Criswell has done admirably in the 6 slot, and now Priester is in the system as the presumptive #7 guy. If guys are running into workload concerns, I'd opine that they should probably be moved to the pen to reduce their workload while still helping the squad rather than being ridden into the ground in the rotation until they have to be shut down outright. This would necessitate signing a starter, but it would simultaneously eliminate the need for a reliever, so I don't really understand why there would be a need to sign both a starter and a reliever. And if being shut down due to workload isn't a realistic concern, why is a starter needed in the first place? Does this imply they intend to target a high-end guy and really push some chips in? I actually don't see them signing a RH infielder unless it's a decent value. Romy has provided solid offensive production with batted ball data to match, and he'll be free to play up the middle once Casas returns. That's already a huge upgrade on Westbrook, and there aren't many guys out there likely to be a big upgrade on Romy unless he falls off. I don't think they want to bring up a guy like Meidroth yet so as to leave him off the 40, but that would be another option if they find they need more help for whatever reason.
I see them making a move for a Tanner Scott type and then staying pat.
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Post by rhswanzey on Jul 30, 2024 9:55:43 GMT -5
Look how full Fenway has been recently. It’s been a while. I think you absolutely can’t sell off major pieces at this point - major defined as players they’re obviously unable to replace in house. What message does that send to the fans at large, as well as a clubhouse full of a lot of players who are expected to be around for subsequent playoff runs. There is meaningful value to playoff appearances, even in years where you don’t have a perceived juggernaut. Lots of examples of that type of team getting bounced, too. All due respect to Nick Pivetta, but if fans start not showing up because he's traded then those aren't real fans. I guess the closest comparison you could make to Pivetta would be the Vazquez trade... and Vazquez was a much bigger part of both the team and clubhouse than Pivetta. If I could get 2 45 FV guys similar to what Vazquez got in Abreu and Valdez then I take that trade every day. For me the line between hoarding too many prospects and where prospects coming in reaches a diminishing return is that 45 FV line... I would not trade Pivetta for a handful of 40 guys, 45 or higher guys, especially at positions of need (pitching)or close to the majors will have an impact no matter what. Even Valdez who we could consider as a 45 guy that hasn't especially worked out has real value, it seems like he was almost used as a 1 for 1 to get a reclamation former top 50 prospect. It’s just asking for the public relations fail that “Full Throttle” was, plastered over all coverage throughout a modest offseason. There is momentum here with the Sox’ excellent play mid May thru mid July, the Cora extension, heck, an all star game MVP. It’s about Nick Pivetta, but it’s not really about Pivetta at all. It’s are you serious about being competitive most years or not? They can’t keep punting on seasons, and they are better positioned organizationally than they were during the prior three seasons. Another intangible consideration - there are cameras following this club around all year, another opportunity to rebrand and generate enthusiasm/rebuild goodwill heading into the “real window”. You’re going to watch that first half and trade the only rotation member who doesn’t have workload concerns? I just don’t see it
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asm18
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Post by asm18 on Jul 30, 2024 9:57:08 GMT -5
At this point even if the Sox want another starter the number of choices have narrowed considerably - and teams like the Dodgers and Padres haven’t gotten theirs yet
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