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If there’s a will, there’s Wilyer — Wilyer Abreu thread
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Post by pappyman99 on May 5, 2024 21:10:04 GMT -5
1.1 WAR through 100 PAs is very nice
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Post by bettsonmookie on May 6, 2024 18:37:24 GMT -5
1.1 WAR through 100 PAs is very nice With 2 HR’s no less. If you project that across a 600 PA sample, it’s a 12 HR rate. He is clearly capable of more than that. Duran @ 1.1 as well. Those contracts will be very valuable moving forward.
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Post by Foulke_In_Athol on May 6, 2024 22:10:19 GMT -5
I'm glad that he sees that being on time should be a top priority... Unfortunately our last Right Fielder felt differently 🛢️ So that's an upgrade.
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Post by trotman on May 7, 2024 10:19:03 GMT -5
MLB.com updated the ROY after the first month and Wilyer is coming in at #5. Ceddanne also got a vote. The frightening Mason Miller comes in at #2. I can't recall a RP ever winning ROY but Miller could be the first. Would love for one of the Sox rookies to sneak into the top 2 but there are so many young studs in the game.
1. Cowser - 17 2. Mason Miller - 14 3. Evan Carter - 5 4. Wyatt Langford - 2
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Post by ematz1423 on May 7, 2024 10:25:05 GMT -5
MLB.com updated the ROY after the first month and Wilyer is coming in at #5. Ceddanne also got a vote. The frightening Mason Miller comes in at #2. I can't recall a RP ever winning ROY but Miller could be the first. Would love for one of the Sox rookies to sneak into the top 2 but there are so many young studs in the game. 1. Cowser - 17 2. Mason Miller - 14 3. Evan Carter - 5 4. Wyatt Langford - 2 Evan Carter and Wyatt Langford aren't even doing particularly well, especially Langford. He's honestly been bad. .224/.295/.293 slash line and a -.4 fWAR, he doesn't deserve any votes for AL ROY at this juncture. Carter is .225/.320/.450 so he's holding his own with a .7 fWAR. Still Carter is not doing as well as Abreu right now .297/.381/.473 1.1 fWAR. Cowser and Mason Miller do seem to be easy choices for 1 and 2 at this point in time though.
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Post by scottysmalls on May 7, 2024 10:27:31 GMT -5
I'd argue that as it is right now Mason Miller being the best RP in baseball he should be the clear number one in the ROY race, even with how awesome Cowser has been.
Add: though since this is the Wilyer Abreu thread I'll add how incredible he's been in MLB so far: 5.4 wins per 600 PAs. He's been way outperforming his xwOBA but a lot of that was early in the season, he's been hitting great for a while now.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 7, 2024 11:19:38 GMT -5
MLB.com updated the ROY after the first month and Wilyer is coming in at #5. Ceddanne also got a vote. The frightening Mason Miller comes in at #2. I can't recall a RP ever winning ROY but Miller could be the first. Would love for one of the Sox rookies to sneak into the top 2 but there are so many young studs in the game. 1. Cowser - 17 2. Mason Miller - 14 3. Evan Carter - 5 4. Wyatt Langford - 2 Relievers who've won rookie of the year: 2020: Devin Williams 2011: Craig Kimbrel 2010: Neftali Feliz 2009: Andrew Bailey 2005: Huston Street 2000: Kaz Sasaki 1999: Scott Williamson 1989: Gregg Olson 1986: Todd Worrell 1980: Steve Howe ... Etc. Etc.
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Post by bojacksoxfan on May 7, 2024 11:34:42 GMT -5
I'd argue that as it is right now Mason Miller being the best RP in baseball he should be the clear number one in the ROY race, even with how awesome Cowser has been. Add: though since this is the Wilyer Abreu thread I'll add how incredible he's been in MLB so far: 5.4 wins per 600 PAs. He's been way outperforming his xwOBA but a lot of that was early in the season, he's been hitting great for a while now. Pro-rated per 600 AB stats are always going to overrate platoon players. Abreu has 164 PA vR and just 26 vL. wRC+ is 152 and 44. Just to do a quick comparison Devers has 30% of career PA vL whereas Abreu is at 14%. Bring Abreu's playing time vL up to 30% and his stats would look a lot worse.
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Post by Smittyw on May 7, 2024 11:47:37 GMT -5
MLB.com updated the ROY after the first month and Wilyer is coming in at #5. Ceddanne also got a vote. The frightening Mason Miller comes in at #2. I can't recall a RP ever winning ROY but Miller could be the first. Would love for one of the Sox rookies to sneak into the top 2 but there are so many young studs in the game. 1. Cowser - 17 2. Mason Miller - 14 3. Evan Carter - 5 4. Wyatt Langford - 2 Our own pitching coach might have something to say about that.. 🙂
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Post by scottysmalls on May 7, 2024 11:48:38 GMT -5
I'd argue that as it is right now Mason Miller being the best RP in baseball he should be the clear number one in the ROY race, even with how awesome Cowser has been. Add: though since this is the Wilyer Abreu thread I'll add how incredible he's been in MLB so far: 5.4 wins per 600 PAs. He's been way outperforming his xwOBA but a lot of that was early in the season, he's been hitting great for a while now. Pro-rated per 600 AB stats are always going to overrate platoon players. Abreu has 164 PA vR and just 26 vL. wRC+ is 152 and 44. Just to do a quick comparison Devers has 30% of career PA vL whereas Abreu is at 14%. Bring Abreu's playing time vL up to 30% and his stats would look a lot worse. totally valid point, I didn’t realize he had so few PA against lefties
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Post by Foulke_In_Athol on May 7, 2024 12:03:41 GMT -5
If I'm Wilyer right now I do everything I can to improve against lefties, because he's going to be a full time player, he simply has the tools. I loved Trot Nixon, but it always kinda bugged me that he never improved vs. LHP. Now Id gladly take Trots career in Boston as an outcome for Wilyer, but it just seems Wilyer is more of a sponge, working to improve his weaknesses as he progresses since the trade. Where from most accounts Trot wasn't the most coachable/open to change.It'd be a waste of Wilyer didn't at least, get to be average-ish. Of course if he figures out lefties he's probably an all-star level RF.
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Post by bojacksoxfan on May 7, 2024 12:06:48 GMT -5
I should have added - still really good though for a guy acquired for Cristian Vazquez!
It's a good time to point out though that teams operate on a continuum even though GMs have discrete tenures. My biggest problem with Bloom was his inability to bring impact players onto the roster. I've always used 3+ WAR as a loose definition of impact. One 3 WAR player is more impactful than 4 1 WAR players just because you need to concentrate WAR into a limited number of roster spots. Off the top of my head I think Kiké's first year is currently the only 3+ WAR player season that Bloom brought to the Sox. If Abreu can keep it up, even with a pretty strict platoon, he can be the second and in theory much more repeatable than Kiké.
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Post by trotman on May 7, 2024 12:21:10 GMT -5
MLB.com updated the ROY after the first month and Wilyer is coming in at #5. Ceddanne also got a vote. The frightening Mason Miller comes in at #2. I can't recall a RP ever winning ROY but Miller could be the first. Would love for one of the Sox rookies to sneak into the top 2 but there are so many young studs in the game. 1. Cowser - 17 2. Mason Miller - 14 3. Evan Carter - 5 4. Wyatt Langford - 2 Relievers who've won rookie of the year: 2020: Devin Williams 2011: Craig Kimbrel 2010: Neftali Feliz 2009: Andrew Bailey 2005: Huston Street 2000: Kaz Sasaki 1999: Scott Williamson 1989: Gregg Olson 1986: Todd Worrell 1980: Steve Howe ... Etc. Etc. I would like to apologize to Andrew Bailey and his entire family for my cruel oversight and to all relief pitchers. I don't know what I was thinking. Edit: It's not my day. I can't even spell correctly.
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Post by foreverred9 on May 7, 2024 21:01:28 GMT -5
MLB.com updated the ROY after the first month and Wilyer is coming in at #5. Ceddanne also got a vote. The frightening Mason Miller comes in at #2. I can't recall a RP ever winning ROY but Miller could be the first. Would love for one of the Sox rookies to sneak into the top 2 but there are so many young studs in the game. 1. Cowser - 17 2. Mason Miller - 14 3. Evan Carter - 5 4. Wyatt Langford - 2 Relievers who've won rookie of the year: 2020: Devin Williams 2011: Craig Kimbrel 2010: Neftali Feliz 2009: Andrew Bailey 2005: Huston Street 2000: Kaz Sasaki 1999: Scott Williamson1989: Gregg Olson 1986: Todd Worrell 1980: Steve Howe ... Etc. Etc. Flashbacks to "Timlin in the 8th, Williamson in the 9th".
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Post by Foulke_In_Athol on May 7, 2024 21:26:21 GMT -5
Relievers who've won rookie of the year: 2020: Devin Williams 2011: Craig Kimbrel 2010: Neftali Feliz 2009: Andrew Bailey 2005: Huston Street 2000: Kaz Sasaki 1999: Scott Williamson1989: Gregg Olson 1986: Todd Worrell 1980: Steve Howe ... Etc. Etc. Flashbacks to "Timlin in the 8th, Williamson in the 9th". That's the first thing I thought of too when I saw Williamson's name... We were so silly back in those days, and Gump managing. Thank God for 2004
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Post by trotman on May 9, 2024 7:23:07 GMT -5
Jim Bowden put out his top 10 AL Rookies with 3 Red Sox on it. Our boy Wilyer coming in at #4. Mason Miller rightfully is #1. Cooper Criswell is above both Rangers outfielders as we all expected.
1. Mason Miller 2. Colton Cowser 3. Luis Gil 4. Wilyer Abreu 5. Wenceel Perez 6. Simeon Woods Richards 7. Cooper Criswell!! 8. Evan Carter 9. Ceddanne Rafaela 10. Wyatt Langford
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Post by 1toolplayer on May 9, 2024 8:01:07 GMT -5
Jim Bowden put out his top 10 AL Rookies with 3 Red Sox on it. Our boy Wilyer coming in at #4. Mason Miller rightfully is #1. Cooper Criswell is above both Rangers outfielders as we all expected. 1. Mason Miller 2. Colton Cowser 3. Luis Gil 4. Wilyer Abreu 5. Wenceel Perez 6. Simeon Woods Richards 7. Cooper Criswell!! 8. Evan Carter 9. Ceddanne Rafaela 10. Wyatt Langford Refreshing to see a few "post hype" guys on this list. Does it seem to anyone else that the industry has seemed to trend towards being first on a lot of the lower level breakouts than ever before? I feel like we overlook the guys who were those lower-level breakouts, bc they weren't in the big leagues at 21. Take Perez for example, he was a top 100 guy at one point, and this year he was 27th on BA's Top 30, and 20th on MLB's, and you look at his age 23 season where he got to AAA and produced, where as Leo De Vries (who I realize was the top international guy) is a top 100 guy at 17 before a professional AB. I get ceiling and projection play a big part in this, but I think we are leaning a little bit too early. I had a similar thought to Wilyer coming into this year, where hey, he played really well in Sept in the big leagues, this guy should be getting more hype (even Tom Werner at the Winterfest said as much). Then you look at Matt Mclain's rookie year coming from AA, and he puts up better numbers in the big leagues. It's all just a nice reminder of why following player development is a great joy.
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Post by wkdbigsoxfan on May 9, 2024 10:59:21 GMT -5
Is Abreu eligible for draft pick compensation?
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Post by julyanmorley on May 9, 2024 11:03:28 GMT -5
Nope, you need to be on top 100 lists and he was not
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nomar
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Post by nomar on May 9, 2024 12:43:20 GMT -5
Nope, you need to be on top 100 lists and he was not Wow that’s crazy arbitrary and if anything you’d think rewarding a team for exceeding all expectations developing talent makes more sense.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 9, 2024 13:10:51 GMT -5
Nope, you need to be on top 100 lists and he was not Wow that’s crazy arbitrary and if anything you’d think rewarding a team for exceeding all expectations developing talent makes more sense. The point is to keep teams from holding down top prospects to game service time and team control, not to reward player development. Through that lens it makes plenty of sense, imo. Would be nice to have a better mechanism to establish the list though.
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Post by seamus on May 9, 2024 13:23:24 GMT -5
Limiting it just the top prospects makes sense in that it's meant to protect them, but it honestly seems unnecessary. What's the harm in extending that same type of protection to all prospects, especially given that the top prospects are obviously the most likely to actually achieve the targets to actually trigger the rewards?
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on May 9, 2024 13:30:46 GMT -5
Limiting it just the top prospects makes sense in that it's meant to protect them, but it honestly seems unnecessary. What's the harm in extending that same type of protection to all prospects, especially given that the top prospects are obviously the most likely to actually achieve the targets to actually trigger the rewards? Well I think the incentive exists because top prospects are much more likely to be victims of service time manipulation. A good, pertinent example of this would be that there was a pretty solid amount of discussion this past offseason on this board of what to do with Rafaela and the Opening Day roster from a service time perspective, whereas I don't think many of us, if any, were particular concerned about the service time implications of Abreu's arrival to the team. I think, to directly answer your question, "the harm" in extending it to all prospects is it completely misrepresents the point of the incentive.
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Post by ematz1423 on May 9, 2024 13:33:16 GMT -5
Limiting it just the top prospects makes sense in that it's meant to protect them, but it honestly seems unnecessary. What's the harm in extending that same type of protection to all prospects, especially given that the top prospects are obviously the most likely to actually achieve the targets to actually trigger the rewards? Well I think the incentive exists because top prospects are much more likely to be victims of service time manipulation. A good, pertinent example of this would be that there was a pretty solid amount of discussion this past offseason on this board of what to do with Rafaela and the Opening Day roster from a service time perspective, whereas I don't think many of us, if any, were particular concerned about the service time implications of Abreu's arrival to the team. I think, to directly answer your question, "the harm" in extending it to all prospects is it completely misrepresents the point of the incentive. In fairness to the argument of abreu and Rafaela's service time out of ST. Abreu had already been in the MLB and accrued service time. It'd have been pretty hard to justify keeping him down for the 2 months or so of time vs the 1 month or so that Rafaela would have needed for the extra year. Edit: I stand corrected, for some reason I did not recall that Rafaela was called up at all last season. My point is null and void, my bad.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 9, 2024 14:02:14 GMT -5
Well I think the incentive exists because top prospects are much more likely to be victims of service time manipulation. A good, pertinent example of this would be that there was a pretty solid amount of discussion this past offseason on this board of what to do with Rafaela and the Opening Day roster from a service time perspective, whereas I don't think many of us, if any, were particular concerned about the service time implications of Abreu's arrival to the team. I think, to directly answer your question, "the harm" in extending it to all prospects is it completely misrepresents the point of the incentive. In fairness to the argument of abreu and Rafaela's service time out of ST. Abreu had already been in the MLB and accrued service time. It'd have been pretty hard to justify keeping him down for the 2 months or so of time vs the 1 month or so that Rafaela would have needed for the extra year. FYI, entering the year, Abreu had 41 days of ST and Rafaela had 35. They were in the same service time situation. As for limiting the PPI eligibility, keep in mind this was collectively bargained. This wasn't MLB saying, "hey, y'know what would be cool?" The union is interested in protecting the players most likely to be victims of service time manipulation and got this concession. If they wanted more, they probably would've needed to give up more. The point isn't to reward a team with a pick that's getting awarded every year. The point was to get rid of the Kris Bryant "he needs to go work on his fielding so he's starting in AAA" thing from happening. That's way more likely with a top prospect than an off-the-radar type.
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