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If there’s a will, there’s Wilyer — Wilyer Abreu thread
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Post by wcsoxfan on Mar 5, 2024 11:30:03 GMT -5
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Post by greatscottcooper on Mar 5, 2024 12:23:59 GMT -5
I've been sort of a late bloomer on the Wilyer Abreu boat. I've seen athletes go pro who performed better than their amateur counterparts (who outperformed them) because they just had that "step up" factor. It's hard to quantify someone's ability to grow mentally and how that meshes with their determination and hard work. Physical tools are so much easier to evaluate.
I like Wilyer, I'm hoping he can be a .780-.800 OPS guy who plays above average defense in RF. I know he has platoon concerns, but I'm really rooting for him now to prove himself as an everday player. I think he's at the very least been playing his way into getting an opportunity.
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Post by orion09 on Mar 11, 2024 2:27:00 GMT -5
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Post by LoneStarSox on Mar 11, 2024 18:08:21 GMT -5
Anyone venture a guess whose stats these were in 2023? PA 2B HR RBI BB K BA OBP SLG OPS+602 37 13 54 45 93 .264 .324 .421 100
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Post by notstarboard on Mar 11, 2024 18:13:41 GMT -5
Anyone venture a guess whose stats these were in 2023? PA 2B HR RBI BB K BA OBP SLG OPS+602 37 13 54 45 93 .264 .324 .421 100 I hear he looks weird without a beard
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Post by orion09 on Mar 11, 2024 19:06:23 GMT -5
Anyone venture a guess whose stats these were in 2023? PA 2B HR RBI BB K BA OBP SLG OPS+602 37 13 54 45 93 .264 .324 .421 100 Yeah, interesting comp. Verdugo’s line wound up netting out to 98 wRC+. (The 17 pt difference is OBP is significant.) Which, with slightly above average defense and slightly below average baserunning, came out to 2.0 fWAR in 602 PA. So if that’s who Abreu is, that’s a very nice regular, especially at league minimum. Based on what Law said, it sounds like there might be even more offensive upside, though of course downside risk as well - he might not hit at all.
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Post by julyanmorley on Mar 11, 2024 19:09:50 GMT -5
Would be ecstastic if Abreu gives us Verdugo's Red Sox career
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Post by Oregon Norm on Mar 11, 2024 19:34:04 GMT -5
He's got a very different swing and more patience & power than Verdugo (though he's not fielding or hitting in the rightfield playpen at Yankee Stadium).
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Post by notstarboard on Mar 12, 2024 0:23:00 GMT -5
Would be ecstastic if Abreu gives us Verdugo's Red Sox career Especially since Vazquez was below replacement level over 108 PA for Houston in 2022. Usually we have to trade Mookie Betts to get guys like Verdugo (It's a joke, please do not @ me about the Mookie trade y'all)
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Mar 13, 2024 8:57:15 GMT -5
Would be ecstastic if Abreu gives us Verdugo's Red Sox career Especially since Vazquez was below replacement level over 108 PA for Houston in 2022. Usually we have to trade Mookie Betts to get guys like Verdugo (It's a joke, please do not @ me about the Mookie trade y'all) Totally agree that two month of below replacement Vazquez for Abreu and Valdez (at minimum and with controllability) was an absolute theft. Those two will start a lot of games in 2024. I hope they can produce the upside we have seen in them.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Mar 13, 2024 10:34:44 GMT -5
For all the talk about Abreu's platoon splits (in all of 10 MLB PAs) here's Verdugo's line against lefthanders last year: .220/.311/.298!
When the Sox traded for him he had very good platoon numbers. That really changed in his years with the team. It won't take much for Abreu to prove at least as valuable, and he has a better arm, a cannon for those throws from deep in the rightfield corner.
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nomar
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Posts: 11,497
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Post by nomar on Mar 13, 2024 11:31:50 GMT -5
For all the talk about Abreu's platoon splits (in all of 10 MLB PAs) here's Verdugo's line against lefthanders last year: .220/.311/.298! When the Sox traded for him he had very good platoon numbers. That really changed in his years with the team. It won't take much for Abreu to prove at least as valuable, and he has a better arm, a cannon for those throws from deep in the rightfield corner. Yeah in my eyes the big variable will be the K rate. If it’s above 25%, that’s not good. If it’s closer to 20%, I think he can be a really nice piece. The good news is that it seems like his glove will also be worth something. We’ll see, but he’s one of the players I’m most interested in watching this year.
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Post by DesignatedForAssignment on Mar 14, 2024 21:42:50 GMT -5
Abreu: option him to AAA. Solves any roster issues.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Mar 15, 2024 0:25:11 GMT -5
Abreu: option him to AAA. Solves any roster issues. What roster issue? They're going with 4 reserves, assuming 13 pitchers. So McGuire is the backup catcher. Pablo Reyes is the utility infielder. Either Cron or Dalbec get a spot. Both wont get a spot. That leaves a spot for a backup outfielder. If they do indeed go Duran in LF, Rafaela in CF, and O'Neill in RF with Yoshida DHing,the backup OF spot would normally go to Refsnyder but he's hurt so even with his struggles Abreu would get the spot. What other candidate would there be?
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Post by incandenza on Apr 26, 2024 11:38:02 GMT -5
Abreu is a comically consistent OBP machine:
2022 (HOU, AA): .399 2022 (BOS, AA): .399 2023 (BOS, AAA): .391 2023 (BOS, MLB): .388 2024 (BOS, MLB): .389
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Post by itinerantherb on Apr 26, 2024 12:03:13 GMT -5
Abreu is a comically consistent OBP machine:
2022 (HOU, AA): .399 2022 (BOS, AA): .399 2023 (BOS, AAA): .391 2023 (BOS, MLB): .388 2024 (BOS, MLB): .389
His MLB career is off to a torrid start. Elite discipline, strong barrel and hard hit rates, and very good RF defense that all adds up 2 WAR in about a third of a season's worth of ABs, even with a very high whiff %. There seems to be some luck involved, as he's not going to maintain the career .415 BABIP. But depending on where he settles in, I'm increasingly hopeful that he's a legitimate starting-caliber player.
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Post by manfred on Apr 26, 2024 12:04:01 GMT -5
Abreu is a comically consistent OBP machine:
2022 (HOU, AA): .399 2022 (BOS, AA): .399 2023 (BOS, AAA): .391 2023 (BOS, MLB): .388 2024 (BOS, MLB): .389
Declining!!! (Kidding)
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Post by vokuhila on Apr 26, 2024 12:29:44 GMT -5
Abreu is a comically consistent OBP machine:
2022 (HOU, AA): .399 2022 (BOS, AA): .399 2023 (BOS, AAA): .391 2023 (BOS, MLB): .388 2024 (BOS, MLB): .389
His MLB career is off to a torrid start. Elite discipline, strong barrel and hard hit rates, and very good RF defense that all adds up 2 WAR in about a third of a season's worth of ABs, even with a very high whiff %. There seems to be some luck involved, as he's not going to maintain the career .415 BABIP. But depending on where he settles in, I'm increasingly hopeful that he's a legitimate starting-caliber player. There definitively is: .306 BA vs .233 xBA .516 SLG vs .391 xSLG .396 wOBA vs. .316 xwOBA
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Post by julyanmorley on Apr 26, 2024 12:45:40 GMT -5
.316 wOBA would work for me too.
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Post by scottysmalls on Apr 26, 2024 12:58:25 GMT -5
FWIW his xwOBA has been trending up, he was horrible to start the year but his rolling 50 PA xwOBA is at .364 right now
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asm18
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Post by asm18 on Apr 26, 2024 13:08:18 GMT -5
FWIW his xwOBA has been trending up, he was horrible to start the year but his rolling 50 PA xwOBA is at .364 right now Yeah he was striking like legit 50% of the time to start the year - that Statcast page might be blue for a teeny bit longer while he overcomes that rough beginning
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Post by incandenza on Apr 26, 2024 13:11:56 GMT -5
His MLB career is off to a torrid start. Elite discipline, strong barrel and hard hit rates, and very good RF defense that all adds up 2 WAR in about a third of a season's worth of ABs, even with a very high whiff %. There seems to be some luck involved, as he's not going to maintain the career .415 BABIP. But depending on where he settles in, I'm increasingly hopeful that he's a legitimate starting-caliber player. There definitively is: .306 BA vs .233 xBA .516 SLG vs .391 xSLG .396 wOBA vs. .316 xwOBA That's for this season. (For his career - still only 147 PAs - his xwOBA is .338.) But within this season he's had two very distinct chunks. First 20 PAs: .111/.200/.111, 10% BB rate, 45% K rate
Last 52 PAs: .386/.462/.682, 13.5% BB rate, 17.3% K rate
In those first 20 PAs, 3 of his 8 appearances were as a pinch hitter, and in those games he went 0-6 with 4 Ks. In his last 52 PAs he's only appeared as a pinch hitter once (2 PAs, 1 BB, 1 K).
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Post by itinerantherb on Apr 26, 2024 13:26:31 GMT -5
There definitively is: .306 BA vs .233 xBA .516 SLG vs .391 xSLG .396 wOBA vs. .316 xwOBA That's for this season. (For his career - still only 147 PAs - his xwOBA is .338.) But within this season he's had two very distinct chunks. First 20 PAs: .111/.200/.111, 10% BB rate, 45% K rate
Last 52 PAs: .386/.462/.682, 13.5% BB rate, 17.3% K rate
In those first 20 PAs, 3 of his 8 appearances were as a pinch hitter, and in those games he went 0-6 with 4 Ks. In his last 52 PAs he's only appeared as a pinch hitter once (2 PAs, 1 BB, 1 K).
Wait, distinct chunks and a single point in time marking a dramatic and presumably lasting shift in performance? ericmvann, have you hacked incandenza's SP account?
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Post by incandenza on Apr 26, 2024 13:53:04 GMT -5
That's for this season. (For his career - still only 147 PAs - his xwOBA is .338.) But within this season he's had two very distinct chunks. First 20 PAs: .111/.200/.111, 10% BB rate, 45% K rate
Last 52 PAs: .386/.462/.682, 13.5% BB rate, 17.3% K rate
In those first 20 PAs, 3 of his 8 appearances were as a pinch hitter, and in those games he went 0-6 with 4 Ks. In his last 52 PAs he's only appeared as a pinch hitter once (2 PAs, 1 BB, 1 K).
Wait, distinct chunks and a single point in time marking a dramatic and presumably lasting shift in performance? ericmvann, have you hacked incandenza's SP account? And microscopic sample sizes no less! Makes you wonder...
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Post by wcsoxfan on May 5, 2024 21:01:32 GMT -5
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