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If there’s a will, there’s Wilyer — Wilyer Abreu thread
shagworthy
Veteran
My neckbeard game is on point.
Posts: 1,838
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Post by shagworthy on Aug 5, 2024 16:12:31 GMT -5
Anthony is 20, and still so many steps away from the majors. Am I pulling for him? Sure, he has the tools everyone fawns over, but I am not ready to put the cart before the horse. There is no reason to rush him (Anthony) until he beats down the door. Especially considering the talent we have currently at hand. Let him earn it beyond a shadow of a doubt, and even then, be willing to deal with the growing pains that most if not all players go through.
Which is a long-winded way of saying, I wouldn't immediately trade anyone in the offseason from our OF to make room for any of our prospects, not at this moment.
We're stuck with Story's money, but I wouldn't count on him to be a real contributor for the remainder of his deal. We have so much middle infield depth that I would anticipate that is the place where we could cull from even further. Valdez, Hamilton, Meidroth, Zanatello, Romero, Sogard et all, those are the pieces to shop. As well as Jordan, who doesn't survive r5 any way you hack it. On the pitching side, Wileman, Drohan, Fitts...
Next offseason (2025) maybe the story is different, but from now I think we need a little Kenny Rogers wisdom.
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Post by keninten on Aug 5, 2024 17:11:23 GMT -5
I don`t want to trade Abreu because of anyone on the farm. Although it is nice we have some prospects down there. I want some young pitching. Similar to the Yorke for Priester, but MLB players instead.
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Post by carl4sox on Aug 5, 2024 17:29:26 GMT -5
I love Wilyer. Not interested in trading him for anyone, yet. Let's see next year.
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Post by Darwin's Curve on Aug 5, 2024 17:38:10 GMT -5
Sorry for not being clearer, I'm just trying to say with all the "trade Abreu" narrative popping up that if you look at what Abreu has been and take it at face value (before assuming improvements with age and experience through his sophomore season) that Anthony, as good as he is, would be lucky to be the better player. From a wider view we've started to enter a window of contention (and with better health would seemingly be firmly in one), it doesn't make sense to trade established major league talent to hope Anthony (or any other top prospect) can put up this kind of MLB production 2 years from now. Theoretically we'd be trading him *for* something. And we'd still have an OF of Duran and CR for 2025, so CF is covered, plus one other spot. But where do the other OF innings come from after them? Romy? Yoshida? If we traded Abreu we'd likely need to acquire an OF with an arm for RF, which is basically Abreu's profile. We could probably resign Refsnyder as a very serviceable 4th OF and platoon(?) bat. But even so we'd need another OF acquisition, with Anthony a year or more away. All that to say it makes more sense to keep him - the 2025 OF is not quite a glut of players once O'Neill is out of the picture. At that point if Anthony is tearing the cover off the ball and we have other in-house depth, maybe it makes sense to trade one of the OFs. But it's not exactly a log-jam that we have to clear.
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Post by strike23 on Aug 5, 2024 18:25:31 GMT -5
I think we're on the same page and I know we'd get something in return but what do you even trade him for at this point? He's not getting you a top SP on his own (and they should probably address that through FA anyway given the current team comp and lack of other places to spend money), under no circumstances should we be moving a 3-4 WAR RF for a relief arm and then if you do move him you still need to backfill his spot until Anthony is (hopefully) ready, trading your 3rd or 4th best position player just isn't usually a good way to improve the team.
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Aug 5, 2024 18:30:00 GMT -5
If Anthony forces his way on to the roster. Which he probably will at some point next year. Just rotate the 4 with one of em dh’ing. Try to move Masa’s contract. Will only have 2 1/2 years left on his deal when this all goes down next summer.
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Post by finaliz3d on Aug 5, 2024 19:25:29 GMT -5
I guess where I'm at, is that if there's a good SP (like we're talking top of the rotation guy, young, controllable) and they want Abreu as the best piece in that deal, I would do that in a heartbeat.
I think it's prudent to take calls on Abreu given his value right now, but if we didn't trade him this offseason I would also be perfectly fine with that. I think the offseason after that is more likely the time.
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Post by keninten on Aug 5, 2024 19:42:12 GMT -5
First off I wouldn`t trade him until the off season. How valuable is a package of Wilyer, Blaze or Valdez, and a pitcher like Priester or Fitts? Or what would be a fair price we would pay for a pitcher like Crochet?
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Aug 6, 2024 0:45:42 GMT -5
First off I wouldn`t trade him until the off season. How valuable is a package of Wilyer, Blaze or Valdez, and a pitcher like Priester or Fitts? Or what would be a fair price we would pay for a pitcher like Crochet? Well, they can't trade him until the offseason, unless he clears waivers I guess. I don't think Blaze or Valdez is going to be a significant part of a trade for Crochet or anyone of that wattage. I'd also be pretty surprised if CB2 moved Priester that quickly after targeting him last week. I think you're looking at Wilyer plus one of your top ten prospects. Either that or a 3 plus two of your top 20. Any trade like that is going to be bittersweet.
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Post by lronhoyabembe on Aug 6, 2024 6:26:55 GMT -5
I think it's far more likely Anthony gets traded than Abreu at this point. I'm not sure why you'd want to trade Abreu anyways. He has been one of their best players, is under team control forever, and doesn't cost any money.
Further, the Red Sox are looking to win now; Abreu is here now. From the other team's perspective, if they are trading the major league pitching the Red Sox would be targeting, they likely don't have much use for Abreu.
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Post by puzzler on Aug 6, 2024 7:02:55 GMT -5
I think it's far more likely Anthony gets traded than Abreu at this point. I'm not sure why you'd want to trade Abreu anyways. He has been one of their best players, is under team control forever, and doesn't cost any money. Further, the Red Sox are looking to win now; Abreu is here now. From the other team's perspective, if they are trading the major league pitching the Red Sox would be targeting, they likely don't have much use for Abreu. No this is too black or white. I'd say they are equally likely to be traded at all but Abreu is more likely to be traded this offseason. But anything could happen. If say the Mariners wanted to further upgrade their outfield they'd be much more interested in Abreu than Anthony. Or if the Red Sox want Crochet, the White Sox would surely want Anthony. But not as many prospects get traded in the offseason because more teams are looking to win 'now' than not in the offseason.
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Post by crossedsabres8 on Aug 6, 2024 8:12:42 GMT -5
It always makes me kind of laugh when people say stuff like "he's really good, why would we trade him?"
Well... because other teams also think he's really good and would give us a really good player(s) in return.
It's more about dealing from positions you have extra depth in, you can only start 9 guys and only 3 OFers.
That being said, I don't think there is actually extraneous value in the outfield yet. Anthony is not in the MLB, Abreu is significantly outperforming his x stats, Rafaela hasn't entrenched himself as a CFer, Duran might be peaking now (although admittedly he's the most sure thing).
Considering potential injuries, Rafaela's value in a utility role, and the DH position, I don't think they need to move anyone at all right now.
Now, if they went out and signed Soto...
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Post by lronhoyabembe on Aug 6, 2024 9:02:04 GMT -5
It's not just about depth either. My point is that, given where the Red Sox are in their competitive cycle, it makes more sense to keep the current production of Abreu, and cash a guy like Anthony in for pitching. With the emergence of Duran, and Abreu to a lesser extent, they don't need to gamble on Anthony becoming a star. They can let another team take that gamble and lock in an addition to the major league roster in a different area.
Abreu is very valuable to a competitive team because he is good, now, and cheap as free. A team looking to acquire him will want to exchange prospects (future production for current) or equal/greater major league talent on expensive or expiring contracts (current production for financial flexibility). Neither of these should particularly interest the Red Sox right now, which is why I don't think they should be trying to move Abreu.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Aug 6, 2024 11:58:59 GMT -5
It always makes me kind of laugh when people say stuff like "he's really good, why would we trade him?" Well... because other teams also think he's really good and would give us a really good player(s) in return. My version of this is getting the question "should they keep him or trade him?" with the clear implication being "will he be good or not?" Just not really how it works.
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Post by awalkinthepark on Aug 6, 2024 13:22:50 GMT -5
It always makes me kind of laugh when people say stuff like "he's really good, why would we trade him?" Well... because other teams also think he's really good and would give us a really good player(s) in return. It's more about dealing from positions you have extra depth in, you can only start 9 guys and only 3 OFers. That being said, I don't think there is actually extraneous value in the outfield yet. Anthony is not in the MLB, Abreu is significantly outperforming his x stats, Rafaela hasn't entrenched himself as a CFer, Duran might be peaking now (although admittedly he's the most sure thing). Considering potential injuries, Rafaela's value in a utility role, and the DH position, I don't think they need to move anyone at all right now. Now, if they went out and signed Soto... Right the missing piece here is what you can return in a trade. If the Red Sox FO is doing its job they shouldn't be losing any value, regardless of who they trade. They should be getting the equivalent value back. If Anthony is going to be a better all around player than Abreu, then in theory he should return more in a trade. This is an enormous oversimplification, but the question isn't 'Would you rather trade Abreu or Anthony for Crochet', it's something more along the lines of 'Would you rather have Abreu and Crochet or Anthony and Reid Detmers'?
It's easier said than done obviously because the trade market isn't all that efficient, but trades are about moving value around not losing/gaining it.
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Post by jchang on Aug 6, 2024 14:23:16 GMT -5
right now, Wilyer is our third best bWAR at 2.4, though O'Neil and Wong are close at 2.3 and 2.2. Wilyer is 5th best be OPS+ with O'Neil and Refsnyder being ahead on OPS+ but less on bWAR. We don't have anyone in AAA who projects to be an average OF. Roman might make an appearance next year, but is really a 26 target. Bleis and Montgomery are a 27 targets. If all three develop on schedule, a big if, then this is really a 27 topic, assuming Duran and Rafaela are locks O'Neil is only signed for this year, but maybe he can be retained for the next couple of years?
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Post by keninten on Aug 6, 2024 15:09:30 GMT -5
Duran, Rafaela, Refsnyder, Romy, and Sogard. I`d rather have another SP. Giolito, Houck, Crawford, Bello, Whitlock, Criswell, Fitts, and Priester. We have a bigger need for a SP.
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Post by geostorm on Aug 6, 2024 17:18:40 GMT -5
(for the "trading high" folks ) Always great to compare what a 24-25YO rookie does in his first half season with what a bunch of famous guys did when they were 20-22. with AI facilitating, yes, there are a lot more random sport (& non-sport) factoids being generated, same as this one...
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Aug 6, 2024 23:01:36 GMT -5
Duran, Rafaela, Refsnyder, Romy, and Sogard. I`d rather have another SP. Giolito, Houck, Crawford, Bello, Whitlock, Criswell, Fitts, and Priester. We have a bigger need for a SP. Agreed. For one thing, I can't imagine Whitlock will be a starter again. Criswell is hardly a lock for anything. SP is a need, and the higher up the ladder the better. One wild card is whether the Breslow-Bailey Academy of Hurling acquires a couple of guys completely off our collective radar (raise your hand if you had Priester coming at the deadline) and try to alchemize them. Makes more sense that they'd do that *and* acquire a surer thing. EDIT: Love Wilyer. Toolsy, continues to improve, trying like hell to learn English while he's battled personal losses and his home country is in chaos. Easy kid to root for.
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