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If there’s a will, there’s Wilyer — Wilyer Abreu thread
TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,938
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Post by TearsIn04 on Aug 4, 2024 20:26:02 GMT -5
At a point the Red Sox are going to have to move an OFer. There won't be room for Wilyer, Duran, Little Raffy and Roman Anthony. It's not like they'll be able to move Little Raffy to SS full-time because they have Story (or perhaps I should say they have the Story contract) and by 2026 they'll have MM ready to start, barring an MM trade.
But for next year, I look forward to a batting order with alternating stud LHH in the 1,3,5 and 7 spots: Duran leadoff, Big Raffy 3rd, Casas 5th and Wilyer 7th. Throw in a healthy Grissom, either TON or Pete Alonso at DH and Connor Wong at C and you have some balance.
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Post by keninten on Aug 4, 2024 20:32:11 GMT -5
Love Wilyer but I think he is a trade high guy. This winter I hope we go for Crochet or someone similar. Wilyer would be a good piece. Got to give to get.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Aug 4, 2024 21:14:56 GMT -5
How do you know that wouldn't be trading low?
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Post by manfred on Aug 4, 2024 21:55:27 GMT -5
I am the opposite: I have not loved him and thought he’d be AAAA. Now I am thinking I was wrong. He looks like he could be somethibg real.
This outfield has guts.
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Post by keninten on Aug 4, 2024 22:28:06 GMT -5
How do you know that wouldn't be trading low? You never know. I`m just looking for pieces to trade for a young pitcher. With what he has done so far. I think he could be a part of the price for a good young pitcher. I`d rather keep the kids on the farm more. I don`t know what it would cost for someone like Crochet but I`m sure it will be high. Especially if Getz is still running the White Sox.
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Post by awalkinthepark on Aug 4, 2024 23:51:27 GMT -5
I am really interested to see how Duran/Rafaela/Abreu/Anthony plays out. There are a whole lot of different direction Breslow could go in, especially if they believe Abreu is capable of holding down a starting RF job.
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Post by dirtywaterinla on Aug 4, 2024 23:57:05 GMT -5
How do you know that wouldn't be trading low? You never know. I`m just looking for pieces to trade for a young pitcher. With what he has done so far. I think he could be a part of the price for a good young pitcher. I`d rather keep the kids on the farm more. I don`t know what it would cost for someone like Crochet but I`m sure it will be high. Especially if Getz is still running the White Sox. If it ain’t Gilbert, Kirby or Skubal, I ain’t interested.
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Post by keninten on Aug 5, 2024 0:43:10 GMT -5
You never know. I`m just looking for pieces to trade for a young pitcher. With what he has done so far. I think he could be a part of the price for a good young pitcher. I`d rather keep the kids on the farm more. I don`t know what it would cost for someone like Crochet but I`m sure it will be high. Especially if Getz is still running the White Sox. If it ain’t Gilbert, Kirby or Skubal, I ain’t interested. Isn`t that going to cost at least a big 3?
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Post by dirtywaterinla on Aug 5, 2024 1:25:43 GMT -5
If it ain’t Gilbert, Kirby or Skubal, I ain’t interested. Isn`t that going to cost at least a big 3? Likely. Just throwing it out there that if you’re trading Wilyer, you better be getting back a #1 or #2 controllable SP. Crochet still gives me anxiety.
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Post by keninten on Aug 5, 2024 2:39:24 GMT -5
Isn`t that going to cost at least a big 3? Likely. Just throwing it out there that if you’re trading Wilyer, you better be getting back a #1 or #2 controllable SP. Crochet still gives me anxiety. Agreed. I`m a top prospect hoarder though.
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Post by finaliz3d on Aug 5, 2024 4:16:25 GMT -5
I like Wilyer, but his splits this season are a little scary and I think whether it's this offseason or next offseason it makes too much sense to trade him, he currently has a .559 OPS vs LHP/.913 OPS vs RHP... like... that's a steep drop-off. Maybe it's just a small sample size, but I really wonder how much other teams will value him in a trade.
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Post by scottysmalls on Aug 5, 2024 6:43:19 GMT -5
I like Wilyer, but his splits this season are a little scary and I think whether it's this offseason or next offseason it makes too much sense to trade him, he currently has a .559 OPS vs LHP/.913 OPS vs RHP... like... that's a steep drop-off. Maybe it's just a small sample size, but I really wonder how much other teams will value him in a trade. The Red Sox do have the perfect platoon partner for him in Refsnyder though, and maybe this is an improbable area. I still agree I’d explore what his trade value is with Anthony on the horizon and Rafaela/Duran on the team, but he might just end up the best player of the group (Duran excluded)
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 11,495
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Post by nomar on Aug 5, 2024 8:04:31 GMT -5
I like Wilyer, but his splits this season are a little scary and I think whether it's this offseason or next offseason it makes too much sense to trade him, he currently has a .559 OPS vs LHP/.913 OPS vs RHP... like... that's a steep drop-off. Maybe it's just a small sample size, but I really wonder how much other teams will value him in a trade. The Red Sox do have the perfect platoon partner for him in Refsnyder though, and maybe this is an improbable area. I still agree I’d explore what his trade value is with Anthony on the horizon and Rafaela/Duran on the team, but he might just end up the best player of the group (Duran excluded) Duran will be 28 in a month too. Speed and athleticism are a huge part of his game so it’s hard to know how long his peak will last. I wouldn’t be 100% against trading Rafaela this offseason, but as long as you’re relying on Story at SS there’s a good chance Rafaela will have to play a lot there. I don’t see the need to trade any of these guys in the coming year unless a great trade presents itself.
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Post by dcb26 on Aug 5, 2024 8:30:52 GMT -5
I'm beginning to believe that it would be malpractice to trade Abreu before they at least know what they have in Anthony at the MLB level.
Also, it might be time to start wondering if Abreu has reached the level of what you can realistically hope for from Anthony - I don't think he's quite there yet, but not far off, and still getting better.
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Post by trotnixon7 on Aug 5, 2024 8:31:26 GMT -5
The Red Sox do have the perfect platoon partner for him in Refsnyder though, and maybe this is an improbable area. I still agree I’d explore what his trade value is with Anthony on the horizon and Rafaela/Duran on the team, but he might just end up the best player of the group (Duran excluded) Duran will be 28 in a month too. Speed and athleticism are a huge part of his game so it’s hard to know how long his peak will last. I wouldn’t be 100% against trading Rafaela this offseason, but as long as you’re relying on Story at SS there’s a good chance Rafaela will have to play a lot there. I don’t see the need to trade any of these guys in the coming year unless a great trade presents itself. I think it's to the point where they to look at story in that whatever he does has to be seen as a bonus and flat out not have expectations. Id personally baby him. Maybe max him out at 100 games. That way a big chunk of his games will be against LHP if it all worked out.
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Post by geostorm on Aug 5, 2024 9:54:28 GMT -5
I like Wilyer, but his splits this season are a little scary and I think whether it's this offseason or next offseason it makes too much sense to trade him, he currently has a .559 OPS vs LHP/.913 OPS vs RHP... like... that's a steep drop-off. Maybe it's just a small sample size, but I really wonder how much other teams will value him in a trade. The Red Sox do have the perfect platoon partner for him in Refsnyder though, and maybe this is an improbable area. I still agree I’d explore what his trade value is with Anthony on the horizon and Rafaela/Duran on the team, but he might just end up the best player of the group (Duran excluded) (for the "trading high" folks )
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Post by bettsonmookie on Aug 5, 2024 11:16:42 GMT -5
Wilyer's career line:
112 games 338 AB's .284/.348/.509 (.857 OPS) 14 HR 10 SB 3.1 bWAR
This is a 4+ bWAR rookie with a full-season's worth of AB's.
For reference, Kyle Tucker's best season EVER is 5.7 bWAR.
Is Wilyer the most underrated player in MLB? _________________________________________________
EDIT: This prompted me to check my fantasy league just for fun.
Kyle Tucker was drafted 10th overall in my league.
Wilyer Abreu is currently owned in 10% of leagues.
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Post by awalkinthepark on Aug 5, 2024 11:34:58 GMT -5
Wilyer's career line: 112 games 338 AB's .284/.348/.509 (.857 OPS) 14 HR 10 SB 3.1 bWAR This is a 4+ bWAR rookie with a full-season's worth of AB's. For reference, Kyle Tucker's best season EVER is 5.7 bWAR. Is Wilyer the most underrated player in MLB? _________________________________________________ EDIT: This prompted me to check my fantasy league just for fun. Kyle Tucker was drafted 10th overall in my league. Wilyer Abreu is currently owned in 10% of leagues.
The problem with this is that Cora is intentionally sitting him vs. lefties, so you can't just extrapolate out his stats over a full season. So far this year ~85% of his plate appearances have been against righties, which he's crushing. If he was an everyday player that is closer to 75%, and his overall numbers would (likely) drop.
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Post by strike23 on Aug 5, 2024 11:37:22 GMT -5
I'm beginning to believe that it would be malpractice to trade Abreu before they at least know what they have in Anthony at the MLB level. Also, it might be time to start wondering if Abreu has reached the level of what you can realistically hope for from Anthony - I don't think he's quite there yet, but not far off, and still getting better. I started down this line of thought before his injury and its getting close, I think Anthony definitely has a higher ceiling but as far as expected outcome it depends on your view of Abreu. In terms of fWAR Abreu has put up 3 WAR in about a year even with time lost to injury (so only 113 games). You can certainly nitpick his splits or peripherals but his on field results would probably be about a 70% outcome for Anthony. I saw an MLB analysis of their historical top rankings and even the annual average of their top prospects (1-3) is only 2.5-2.7 WAR/yr.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Aug 5, 2024 12:18:46 GMT -5
I'm beginning to believe that it would be malpractice to trade Abreu before they at least know what they have in Anthony at the MLB level. Also, it might be time to start wondering if Abreu has reached the level of what you can realistically hope for from Anthony - I don't think he's quite there yet, but not far off, and still getting better. I started down this line of thought before his injury and its getting close, I think Anthony definitely has a higher ceiling but as far as expected outcome it depends on your view of Abreu. In terms of fWAR Abreu has put up 3 WAR in about a year even with time lost to injury (so only 113 games). You can certainly nitpick his splits or peripherals but his on field results would probably be about a 70% outcome for Anthony. I saw an MLB analysis of their historical top rankings and even the annual average of their top prospects (1-3) is only 2.5-2.7 WAR/yr. Abreu is actually in MLB, and Anthony isn't. He's already had a real and positive outcome. Projecting him as 70% of a player who's still in AA... not so sure about that.
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Post by seamus on Aug 5, 2024 12:24:47 GMT -5
I think he means that Anthony being what Wilyer is now would be a 70th percentile outcome for Anthony.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Aug 5, 2024 12:44:17 GMT -5
I think he means that Anthony being what Wilyer is now would be a 70th percentile outcome for Anthony. My misunderstanding, then. Easier just to say that Anthony should be a 5-6 win player, at least at Abreu's current pace. Since the latter is only 25, he's likely to push that even higher.
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Post by strike23 on Aug 5, 2024 13:17:47 GMT -5
I think he means that Anthony being what Wilyer is now would be a 70th percentile outcome for Anthony. My misunderstanding, then. Easier just to say that Anthony should be a 5-6 win player, at least at Abreu's current pace. Since the latter is only 25, he's likely to push that even higher. Sorry for not being clearer, I'm just trying to say with all the "trade Abreu" narrative popping up that if you look at what Abreu has been and take it at face value (before assuming improvements with age and experience through his sophomore season) that Anthony, as good as he is, would be lucky to be the better player. From a wider view we've started to enter a window of contention (and with better health would seemingly be firmly in one), it doesn't make sense to trade established major league talent to hope Anthony (or any other top prospect) can put up this kind of MLB production 2 years from now.
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jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 4,107
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Post by jimoh on Aug 5, 2024 15:40:17 GMT -5
The Red Sox do have the perfect platoon partner for him in Refsnyder though, and maybe this is an improbable area. I still agree I’d explore what his trade value is with Anthony on the horizon and Rafaela/Duran on the team, but he might just end up the best player of the group (Duran excluded) (for the "trading high" folks ) Always great to compare what a 24-25YO rookie does in his first half season with what a bunch of famous guys did when they were 20-22.
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Post by seamus on Aug 5, 2024 15:52:35 GMT -5
I think he means that Anthony being what Wilyer is now would be a 70th percentile outcome for Anthony. My misunderstanding, then. Easier just to say that Anthony should be a 5-6 win player, at least at Abreu's current pace. Since the latter is only 25, he's likely to push that even higher. It's not that Abreu's current performance is 70% of what we'd expect from Anthony, but rather that Abreu is currently as good as what Anthony would be if achieves his 70th percentile outcome. As in, Anthony has only a 30% chance of being better than Abreu is right, so people ready to trade Abreu you to make room for Anthony are jumping the gun. Not sure if I totally agree with that assessment, and I think it's clear that Anthony's ceiling is superstar while Abreu may already be at his best, but Abreu is definitely the "bird in hand."
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