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If there’s a will, there’s Wilyer — Wilyer Abreu thread
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Post by itinerantherb on May 30, 2024 8:53:51 GMT -5
Mason Miller for Wilyer Abreu, straight up: Who hangs up? I know it's an award for one season of performance but they both have essentially the same contract and amount of control. Just one way to look at it. You can argue that it's a bad analogy because of year-to-year differences in consistency between RPs vs position players and how WAR works for RPs vs position players but when you reach a certain level, those issues kind of go away for RPs. Love Wilyer but I know my answer. If Miller continues on his recent pace and ends up having an historic RP season--say, 2006 Papelbon or 2003 Gagne--I wouldn't mind him winning ROY even if Wilyer or someone else ends up with substantially more WAR. But in terms of straight-up value over the next 5.75 years, I'd take Wilyer in a heartbeat. It's not hard to imagine Wilyer putting up 20 or even 25 WAR over that period. I'd be surprised if an RP has ever put up anything approaching that over a six-year period. I get that WAR is a questionable measure of RP value, but in terms of overall impact on a team's season, 60 or so IP, no matter how outstanding, just can't approach 150 games of middle of the order hitting and plus RF defense.
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Post by manfred on May 30, 2024 9:26:57 GMT -5
Mason Miller for Wilyer Abreu, straight up: Who hangs up? I know it's an award for one season of performance but they both have essentially the same contract and amount of control. Just one way to look at it. You can argue that it's a bad analogy because of year-to-year differences in consistency between RPs vs position players and how WAR works for RPs vs position players but when you reach a certain level, those issues kind of go away for RPs. Love Wilyer but I know my answer. If Miller continues on his recent pace and ends up having an historic RP season--say, 2006 Papelbon or 2003 Gagne--I wouldn't mind him winning ROY even if Wilyer or someone else ends up with substantially more WAR. But in terms of straight-up value over the next 5.75 years, I'd take Wilyer in a heartbeat. It's not hard to imagine Wilyer putting up 20 or even 25 WAR over that period. I'd be surprised if an RP has ever put up anything approaching that over a six-year period. I get that WAR is a questionable measure of RP value, but in terms of overall impact on a team's season, 60 or so IP, no matter how outstanding, just can't approach 150 games of middle of the order hitting and plus RF defense. It is a little hard to see 25 WAR in under 6 years, all due respect to Wilyer. That is a legit star player, well beyond developmental wildest dreams. Here’s hoping…
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Post by incandenza on May 30, 2024 9:46:20 GMT -5
"The Red Sox' 5-tool star who came out of nowhere and is on pace for 5+ WAR in his rookie season is an exciting and dynamic player who deserves ROY" is proving to be a surprisingly hard sell around these parts.
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Post by manfred on May 30, 2024 10:05:59 GMT -5
"The Red Sox' 5-tool star who came out of nowhere and is on pace for 5+ WAR in his rookie season is an exciting and dynamic player who deserves ROY" is proving to be a surprisingly hard sell around these parts. I am fine with this. I am not sure he is going to amass 25 WAR through 5 seasons, though. That seems wildly optimistic.
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nomar
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Posts: 11,495
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Post by nomar on May 30, 2024 10:08:19 GMT -5
Mason Miller for Wilyer Abreu, straight up: Who hangs up? I know it's an award for one season of performance but they both have essentially the same contract and amount of control. Just one way to look at it. You can argue that it's a bad analogy because of year-to-year differences in consistency between RPs vs position players and how WAR works for RPs vs position players but when you reach a certain level, those issues kind of go away for RPs. Love Wilyer but I know my answer. If Miller continues on his recent pace and ends up having an historic RP season--say, 2006 Papelbon or 2003 Gagne--I wouldn't mind him winning ROY even if Wilyer or someone else ends up with substantially more WAR. But in terms of straight-up value over the next 5.75 years, I'd take Wilyer in a heartbeat. It's not hard to imagine Wilyer putting up 20 or even 25 WAR over that period. I'd be surprised if an RP has ever put up anything approaching that over a six-year period. I get that WAR is a questionable measure of RP value, but in terms of overall impact on a team's season, 60 or so IP, no matter how outstanding, just can't approach 150 games of middle of the order hitting and plus RF defense. Also Miller has an exponentially higher injury risk
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Post by itinerantherb on May 30, 2024 10:21:36 GMT -5
6 x 3 = 18 6 x 4 = 24
Based on his first 250 PA, something in that range is probably a tad bullish but not unrealistic.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on May 30, 2024 10:35:56 GMT -5
"The Red Sox' 5-tool star who came out of nowhere and is on pace for 5+ WAR in his rookie season is an exciting and dynamic player who deserves ROY" is proving to be a surprisingly hard sell around these parts. I don't know, there are people pushing back on trading him straight up for a guy who looks like the Next Great Closer. To answer my own question, the A's definitely hang up. They'll get a lot more than Wilyer from a contender. I can see Cashman pushing hard for him. Fortunately, he already gutted their system for one year of Soto and Verdugo. Again, I love Wilyer and have been excited about him since the trade but he's not quite the phenomenon that Miller is. It would also be nice if he would start to hit LHP.
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Post by greatscottcooper on May 30, 2024 10:51:19 GMT -5
It would almost seem fitting if the prospect the Sox lost due to penalties in the IFA market comes back to them in a trade and nets them a pick by winning ROY?
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 11,495
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Post by nomar on May 30, 2024 10:55:14 GMT -5
It would almost seem fitting if the prospect the Sox lost due to penalties in the IFA market comes back to them in a trade and nets them a pick by winning ROY? This was pointed out to me recently. The only players that net a draft pick for ROY wins are PPI eligible players, which are players that appear on at least two of the three top 100 prospect rankings released by MLB Pipeline, Baseball America, or ESPN before the season. Abreu doesn’t qualify, and I’m not sure even Cowser or Westburg do either.
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Post by incandenza on May 30, 2024 11:23:00 GMT -5
"The Red Sox' 5-tool star who came out of nowhere and is on pace for 5+ WAR in his rookie season is an exciting and dynamic player who deserves ROY" is proving to be a surprisingly hard sell around these parts. I am fine with this. I am not sure he is going to amass 25 WAR through 5 seasons, though. That seems wildly optimistic. What should we expect at this point? Since last season I had been pegging him for 2 WAR/600 PA in a strong platoon role. But that seems low to me now.
The bull case: players who run well, play good defense, and get on base pile up the WAR in a hurry. And he has a little power to add to the mix. This is how he's on a 5+ WAR pace. Plus he has a 138 wRC+ in 259 career PAs, which is still not a huge sample but we can at least say the league hasn't made some deadly adjustment to leave him lost at the plate.
The bear case: He is not hitting lefties *at all*. I didn't even realize it was this bad, but he's at just .174/.240/.217 this season. Only 23 PAs, but that's part of it too - they're still protecting him against lefties, which means his offensive numbers are inflated relative to what they'd be if he were a full-time player. If he doesn't learn to hit lefties it's hard to see him as a star. Also he's got a .056 wOBA-xwOBA gap.
Put that all together and I could maybe see him as a 3-4 WAR/600 PA player? Very unshabby. Though he'll probably have to figure out how to handle lefties to really maintain an all-star type level.
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Post by manfred on May 30, 2024 12:18:22 GMT -5
I am fine with this. I am not sure he is going to amass 25 WAR through 5 seasons, though. That seems wildly optimistic. What should we expect at this point? Since last season I had been pegging him for 2 WAR/600 PA in a strong platoon role. But that seems low to me now.
The bull case: players who run well, play good defense, and get on base pile up the WAR in a hurry. And he has a little power to add to the mix. This is how he's on a 5+ WAR pace. Plus he has a 138 wRC+ in 259 career PAs, which is still not a huge sample but we can at least say the league hasn't made some deadly adjustment to leave him lost at the plate.
The bear case: He is not hitting lefties *at all*. I didn't even realize it was this bad, but he's at just .174/.240/.217 this season. Only 23 PAs, but that's part of it too - they're still protecting him against lefties, which means his offensive numbers are inflated relative to what they'd be if he were a full-time player. If he doesn't learn to hit lefties it's hard to see him as a star. Also he's got a .056 wOBA-xwOBA gap.
Put that all together and I could maybe see him as a 3-4 WAR/600 PA player? Very unshabby. Though he'll probably have to figure out how to handle lefties to really maintain an all-star type level.
Well, you pretty much make my case for why 25 WAR is badly inflated. If you are 3-4 WAR/600 — but as a platoon-y player… then that 600 comes in closer to a season and a half. So closer to 16 WAR in 6 seasons? I’m not pooh-poohing him. He and Duran are the most encouraging OFers in forever. I was just responding to one very specific projection above.
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Post by scottysmalls on May 30, 2024 12:20:19 GMT -5
I'm on the side of Miller winning ROY if things continue as they are, but I think the Red Sox would hang up in a heartbeat on a proposed 1-for-1 swap.
Position players are so much more stable, less of an injury risk, and Wilyer looks like a legit 3 WAR guy (25 in 5 years would make him a top 10 player in baseball, so I think we need to reign that one in a little bit).
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Post by ematz1423 on May 30, 2024 12:27:38 GMT -5
I would not trade Abreu for Miller or pretty much any RP. Sure Miller maybe can be converted to a SP and everyone loves a fireballer but chances are the way things are these days with pitcher injuries you miss out on a year or two due to injury. Where that isn't as likely a concern with Abreu. I think Abreu is probably a decent bet to be a 3 WAR guy for the rest of his controlled years with obviously a ceiling for more.
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Post by crossedsabres8 on May 30, 2024 12:28:55 GMT -5
Joc Pederson with better defense?
That's a very very good player that could put up 3-4 WAR a year when healthy.
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Post by greatscottcooper on May 30, 2024 12:40:42 GMT -5
It would almost seem fitting if the prospect the Sox lost due to penalties in the IFA market comes back to them in a trade and nets them a pick by winning ROY? This was pointed out to me recently. The only players that net a draft pick for ROY wins are PPI eligible players, which are players that appear on at least two of the three top 100 prospect rankings released by MLB Pipeline, Baseball America, or ESPN before the season. Abreu doesn’t qualify, and I’m not sure even Cowser or Westburg do either. Ughhh, I had previously known this but had completely forgotten. Feels a little unfair, perhaps Abreu winning it could stir up that conversation.
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Post by incandenza on May 30, 2024 12:42:18 GMT -5
What should we expect at this point? Since last season I had been pegging him for 2 WAR/600 PA in a strong platoon role. But that seems low to me now.
The bull case: players who run well, play good defense, and get on base pile up the WAR in a hurry. And he has a little power to add to the mix. This is how he's on a 5+ WAR pace. Plus he has a 138 wRC+ in 259 career PAs, which is still not a huge sample but we can at least say the league hasn't made some deadly adjustment to leave him lost at the plate.
The bear case: He is not hitting lefties *at all*. I didn't even realize it was this bad, but he's at just .174/.240/.217 this season. Only 23 PAs, but that's part of it too - they're still protecting him against lefties, which means his offensive numbers are inflated relative to what they'd be if he were a full-time player. If he doesn't learn to hit lefties it's hard to see him as a star. Also he's got a .056 wOBA-xwOBA gap.
Put that all together and I could maybe see him as a 3-4 WAR/600 PA player? Very unshabby. Though he'll probably have to figure out how to handle lefties to really maintain an all-star type level.
Well, you pretty much make my case for why 25 WAR is badly inflated. If you are 3-4 WAR/600 — but as a platoon-y player… then that 600 comes in closer to a season and a half. So closer to 16 WAR in 6 seasons? I’m not pooh-poohing him. He and Duran are the most encouraging OFers in forever. I was just responding to one very specific projection above. Yes, I wasn't disagreeing with you. Even itinerantherb walked back the 25 WAR idea. But having said that, he has 2.4 WAR in the first 77 games of his career; Keith Law, for one, has talked about him as a potential 4 WAR player; and my bear case above leans heavily on his not being able to hit lefties, so if he accomplishes the not-unheard-of feat of learning to hit lefties, 25 WAR over 6 years is not inconceivable. A 95th percentile outcome, maybe, but not like a one-in-a-million proposition.
People are saying he's not that dynamic, or not as exciting as the newest Craig Kimbrel Josh Hader Edwin Diaz; and these are sort of aesthetic judgments, so fair enough. But I do think the completeness of his game is being underrated in this discussion.
Coincidentally, the best comp here might be... Bobby Abreu. Did nothing superlatively but did a lot of stuff really, really well, and as a result averaged nearly 6 WAR a year over 7 seasons. That's like near-MVP level stuff, though people don't really think of him that way. I'm not saying Wilyer's ceiling is that high, but I could see him as a poor man's version.
ADD: Or like a faster Trot Nixon, come to think of it?
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0ap0
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Post by 0ap0 on May 30, 2024 12:51:52 GMT -5
ADD: Or like a faster Trot Nixon, come to think of it?
Canter Nixon?
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Post by manfred on May 30, 2024 13:09:57 GMT -5
Well, you pretty much make my case for why 25 WAR is badly inflated. If you are 3-4 WAR/600 — but as a platoon-y player… then that 600 comes in closer to a season and a half. So closer to 16 WAR in 6 seasons? I’m not pooh-poohing him. He and Duran are the most encouraging OFers in forever. I was just responding to one very specific projection above. Yes, I wasn't disagreeing with you. Even itinerantherb walked back the 25 WAR idea. But having said that, he has 2.4 WAR in the first 77 games of his career; Keith Law, for one, has talked about him as a potential 4 WAR player; and my bear case above leans heavily on his not being able to hit lefties, so if he accomplishes the not-unheard-of feat of learning to hit lefties, 25 WAR over 6 years is not inconceivable. A 95th percentile outcome, maybe, but not like a one-in-a-million proposition.
People are saying he's not that dynamic, or not as exciting as the newest Craig Kimbrel Josh Hader Edwin Diaz; and these are sort of aesthetic judgments, so fair enough. But I do think the completeness of his game is being underrated in this discussion.
Coincidentally, the best comp here might be... Bobby Abreu. Did nothing superlatively but did a lot of stuff really, really well, and as a result averaged nearly 6 WAR a year over 7 seasons. That's like near-MVP level stuff, though people don't really think of him that way. I'm not saying Wilyer's ceiling is that high, but I could see him as a poor man's version.
ADD: Or like a faster Trot Nixon, come to think of it?
That would be great. But Bobby A slashed .272/.360/.389 career vs. lefties. Willy A is at .182/.229/.212. That is in 35 PAs, of course! I guess I still fall in the we-shall-see camp. He could be a 4-5 WAR/year guy, or he might not be in the Sox’ OF in 3 years.
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Post by itinerantherb on May 30, 2024 13:27:06 GMT -5
Yeah, my original WAR range didn't really account for his current platoon-ness. Honestly, I didn't realize that he'd been *that* bad against lefties (albeit in very limited opportunities). I imagine that improving against lefties is near the top of Wilyer and the development staff's to do list. But even if he *only* the strong side of a RF platoon and gets maybe 450 PAs/season, I don't think it's unreasonable to think that he's a 3+ WAR player. So 20 WAR in six seasons feels rationally optimistic, which is kind of how I roll.
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Post by LoneStarSox on Jun 4, 2024 14:07:01 GMT -5
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Post by orion09 on Jun 4, 2024 14:35:35 GMT -5
Getting a specialist involved doesn’t sound promising. Tough injury luck this year.
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Post by soxfansince67 on Jun 4, 2024 15:01:17 GMT -5
Good grief...
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Post by Oregon Norm on Jun 4, 2024 15:28:39 GMT -5
Albert King is here to offer his thoughts... Also gives me a chance to talk up the HBO series about the great largely forgotten record company:
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Post by bettsonmookie on Jul 2, 2024 18:25:56 GMT -5
Wilyer now has approximately half a season's worth of AB's at the MLB level.
Before tonight's game ('23/'24 combined):
267 AB's .285/.354/.472 (.825) 8 HR's & 10 SB's
2.5 WAR
Impressive work. Wilyer/Refsnyder is a heck of a platoon.
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radiohix
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'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
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Post by radiohix on Jul 3, 2024 6:22:59 GMT -5
Call me too optimistic but I think there's another gear he can tap into by chasing less and I believe he will.
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