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If there’s a will, there’s Wilyer — Wilyer Abreu thread
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Post by manfred on Sept 15, 2023 11:22:42 GMT -5
He has been unimpressive of late, and he is so vulnerable that — especially in the age of openers — he’s too easy to flip on early. Broadly, I think a huge problem these past years has been trying to be too cute with stats… splits, situational stuff, etc. You get a bench of specialists — when you need generalists. One thing I like about Abreu in the little I’ve seen is he doesn’t look *bad* at anything. He fields decently, throws well, makes good contact, has a good eye. So many of the OF have a glaring weakness that has been really damaging (e.g. Yoshida’s glove). I hope Duran has ironed out some of his weak spots. But I want to see an OF of 3 guys we expect to play 145-150 games. We're talking about a 5th outfielder, though, making $1.85 million next season. You might get a "generalist" for that role but they're not going to be a very good one. They're certainly not likely to be second on the team in OBP.
I was responding to RR starting in a platoon. That is not good enough. You want him as a backup/ pinch hitter? No problem.
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Post by julyanmorley on Sept 15, 2023 11:34:02 GMT -5
FWIW the Red Sox director of hitting development's philosophy is that the most important things for a batter are:
1) Bat speed 2) Smash factor (big gap) 3) Swing decisions
Do you have a source for that? I’m very curious what smash factor means or how it’s measured.
It is mentioned in this podcast. Smash factor is bat speed divided by exit velo
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Post by bojacksoxfan on Sept 15, 2023 11:50:36 GMT -5
Do you have a source for that? I’m very curious what smash factor means or how it’s measured.
It is mentioned in this podcast. Smash factor is bat speed divided by exit velo
Neat. Thanks.
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Post by benogliviesbrother on Sept 15, 2023 12:37:51 GMT -5
I think they may have squeezed Refsnyder’s value out of him. I don’t think he is a legit starter, even as a platoon player. He has a .432 OBP against lefties and a 135 wRC+. What exactly is your standard for the weak side of a platoon? My only issue with him is when he is in to face a lefty, either as a starter or a sub/ph, and the matchup is changed by the opposing team and he's left in the game to poor result. This happens frequently, sometimes unavoidably, but often in preventable higher leverage situations. So my complaint is not about the player but his deployment by the manager. Maybe others feel similar?
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Sept 15, 2023 12:42:06 GMT -5
Forget the BABIP and the look at the approach (using the whole field aka hit the ball where it’s pitched) and the swing decisions. It’s clear to me that Abreu is the best hitting OFer we have. FWIW the Red Sox director of hitting development's philosophy is that the most important things for a batter are:
1) Bat speed 2) Smash factor (big gap) 3) Swing decisions
They love them some Ceddanne then based on the first 2 being emphasized Abreu seems to have all 3 of those things
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Post by dcsoxfan15 on Sept 15, 2023 13:26:14 GMT -5
He has a .432 OBP against lefties and a 135 wRC+. What exactly is your standard for the weak side of a platoon? My only issue with him is when he is in to face a lefty, either as a starter or a sub/ph, and the matchup is changed by the opposing team and he's left in the game to poor result. This happens frequently, sometimes unavoidably, but often in preventable higher leverage situations. So my complaint is not about the player but his deployment by the manager. Maybe others feel similar? Yes.
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Post by incandenza on Sept 15, 2023 13:31:02 GMT -5
He has a .432 OBP against lefties and a 135 wRC+. What exactly is your standard for the weak side of a platoon? My only issue with him is when he is in to face a lefty, either as a starter or a sub/ph, and the matchup is changed by the opposing team and he's left in the game to poor result. This happens frequently, sometimes unavoidably, but often in preventable higher leverage situations. So my complaint is not about the player but his deployment by the manager. Maybe others feel similar? Fair concern, but his overall numbers included a .363 OBP and a .344 xwOBA (which is wOBA is undershooting by 30 points - in his case probably just poor luck). Since coming to Boston he has a 115 wRC+ and 1.5 WAR in 405 PAs. Not at all bad for a $2 million role player.
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tedf
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Post by tedf on Sept 16, 2023 12:34:19 GMT -5
I have no doubt in my mind that Abreu is better than Duran and if one of them should be traded, it should be Duran. That's pretty high praise, as Duran is solidly competent. Bet they could get more for Duran.
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Post by rickasadoorian on Sept 16, 2023 13:33:23 GMT -5
Duran’s wOBA is way higher than his xwOBA because of his speed. He’ll reach base on grounders that other guys would thrown out on, and he’s able to turn singles into doubles. That gets captured in batting value rather than baserunning value. Unless you don’t buy that his speed is a real skill and that he’ll be able to continue doing so, there’s no reason to believe he won’t continue to out-perform his expected numbers. And for what it’s worth, making more contact with pitches in the zone is not a trivial improvement. In-zone contact rate is one of the most important metrics in baseball, and it’s a very good sign when a boost in zone contact is combined with a significant jump in hard-hit rate. Re: the zone contact rates: it’s a slight improvement from last year, like 1.8% improvement. He went from 87.5% to 89.3%. To my untrained eye, he still struggles to catch up to the fastballs up in the zone. I just don’t see a much improved hitter from the calamity he was a year ago: He’s putting better numbers this year on the surface but the deeper numbers tells a different story, he’s still chasing at the same clip. He’s having better hard hit percentages but but the exit velos are basically the same AND he’s barreling balls less (He went from 7.7% to 5.3%). I just don’t see it and I don’t think he can maintain a .380 BABIP for a whole season to be productive. I'm late to the conversation, but he wouldn't need a .380 BAbip to be productive. If his BAbip was .330 this year (which I think is maintainable), he'd be slashing .259/.313/.446. With his speed and averageish defense, he'd have plenty of value. For reference, Xander Bogaerts career BAbip is .333. Rogers Hornsby has the highest career BAbip at .377. edit: With an average (.300 BAbip), Duran's slash line would be .235/.290/.422. If he can maintain an ISO close to .200, he's going to have some value. Whether he can is definitely in doubt.
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Post by terriblehondo on Sept 17, 2023 7:17:35 GMT -5
So what is the deal with Abreu are we just seeing a guy that is on an extended hot streak? He was smoking hot when he was brought up. Did his hit tool improve in the minors this year? Did a switch flip because to me he looks like an everyday outfielder. Then I go and look at his minor league stats and say there is no way he is this good of a hitter.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Sept 21, 2023 8:48:22 GMT -5
Imagine having to rank him in a few weeks....
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 21, 2023 19:54:58 GMT -5
This is a bit worrisome:
He's faced 37 pitchers for the first time in his life and is .457 / .514 / .657.
He's had 25 PA against pitchers who have already seen him (including 2 relievers who saw him the day before) and is .200 / .360 / .250.
(And he had a BB and 1B against the two relievers, so I'm not fudging to get better numbers by not simply taking times faced in game.)
If he were a hyped prospect and this was earlier in the season where almost every team values every win, I'd think fluke. But you have to wonder if some pitchers are going in in with no scouting report at all, and he's taking advantage of that.
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Post by rhswanzey on Sept 23, 2023 12:22:02 GMT -5
This is a bit worrisome:
He's faced 37 pitchers for the first time in his life and is .457 / .514 / .657.
He's had 25 PA against pitchers who have already seen him (including 2 relievers who saw him the day before) and is .200 / .360 / .250.
(And he had a BB and 1B against the two relievers, so I'm not fudging to get better numbers by not simply taking times faced in game.)
If he were a hyped prospect and this was earlier in the season where almost every team values every win, I'd think fluke. But you have to wonder if some pitchers are going in in with no scouting report at all, and he's taking advantage of that.
42 of his 62 PA have been against HOU, TEX, TOR, TB and BAL
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Post by pappyman99 on Sept 23, 2023 12:58:34 GMT -5
I think Verdugo had to be traded and just start Abreu. His Walk rates have always been very good, he has an arm, and power
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Oct 16, 2023 2:51:11 GMT -5
Boston Strong @bostonstrong_34 · 4h Eddie Romero says that since 2015 the Red Sox have been looking at Wilyer Abreu and they were excited to finally get him last year via the Vazquez trade. They have important plans for him in 2024.
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Post by orion09 on Oct 16, 2023 4:16:25 GMT -5
Boston Strong @bostonstrong_34 · 4h Eddie Romero says that since 2015 the Red Sox have been looking at Wilyer Abreu and they were excited to finally get him last year via the Vazquez trade. They have important plans for him in 2024. This feels significant, not so much for Abreu but because it would appear that one of the best “Bloomian” trades was put together largely by the group that’s in place. Have to hope that’s a positive sign. As far as Abreu, not completely convinced his breakout is for real, but maybe he can be a 1-1.5 WAR role player type. Would obviously be thrilled if he was more than that.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Oct 16, 2023 6:18:44 GMT -5
Boston Strong @bostonstrong_34 · 4h Eddie Romero says that since 2015 the Red Sox have been looking at Wilyer Abreu and they were excited to finally get him last year via the Vazquez trade. They have important plans for him in 2024. This feels significant, not so much for Abreu but because it would appear that one of the best “Bloomian” trades was put together largely by the group that’s in place. Have to hope that’s a positive sign. As far as Abreu, not completely convinced his breakout is for real, but maybe he can be a 1-1.5 WAR role player type. Would obviously be thrilled if he was more than that. At this year's pace, likely not but, he's for real.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Oct 16, 2023 6:22:03 GMT -5
LOL, I am glad I don't have to rank him, major face egg potential. Damned if you do, damned if you don't.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Oct 16, 2023 7:47:57 GMT -5
Boston Strong @bostonstrong_34 · 4h Eddie Romero says that since 2015 the Red Sox have been looking at Wilyer Abreu and they were excited to finally get him last year via the Vazquez trade. They have important plans for him in 2024. This is a reference to the fact, which Wilyer himself has mentioned, that the Red Sox were going to sign him in 2016 or so before they got hit with that damaging suspension that meant they could not sign international players in 2016-17.
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Post by asm19 on Oct 16, 2023 8:38:27 GMT -5
Boston Strong @bostonstrong_34 · 4h Eddie Romero says that since 2015 the Red Sox have been looking at Wilyer Abreu and they were excited to finally get him last year via the Vazquez trade. They have important plans for him in 2024. Thought it was noteworthy when Sam Kennedy was on a recent MassLive podcast earlier this month that he referenced Abreu as one of the young guys they might look to lock up: "We should be able to determine which players would qualify for longer-term extensions, whether it's Bello, whether it's Abreu, whether it's Duran or Casas. These are really important decisions that our baseball operations people have to make." - www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/red-sox-interested-in-long-term-extensions-for-young-players-including-triston-casas-and-brayan-bello/
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Post by pappyman99 on Oct 16, 2023 15:00:30 GMT -5
I like it.
He has the walk rates and power to play. If he keeps his k-rate at 25% or less I feel like he can be a 3-4 WAR player given 550+ PAs
If we come back next year with a whole new outfield
If LF: FA, CF: Rafaela, and RF: Abreu….. I wouldn’t be mad at all
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Oct 16, 2023 15:14:20 GMT -5
I like it. He has the walk rates and power to play. If he keeps his k-rate at 25% or less I feel like he can be a 3-4 WAR player given 550+ PAs If we come back next year with a whole new outfield If LF: FA, CF: Rafaela, and RF: Abreu….. I wouldn’t be mad at all I've found myself really liking abreu. I'm a sucker for a hitter who can take a walk. That being said it's tough to say an OF with both rafaela and abreu starting is going to be above average. There's a whole lot of unknown there.
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Post by kwodes on Oct 16, 2023 15:36:33 GMT -5
I like it. He has the walk rates and power to play. If he keeps his k-rate at 25% or less I feel like he can be a 3-4 WAR player given 550+ PAs If we come back next year with a whole new outfield If LF: FA, CF: Rafaela, and RF: Abreu….. I wouldn’t be mad at all I've found myself really liking abreu. I'm a sucker for a hitter who can take a walk. That being said it's tough to say an OF with both rafaela and abreu starting is going to be above average. There's a whole lot of unknown there. yup, I'm fine if they want to go youth movement, but that would mean a whole lot of volatility. An OF of Duran, Rafaela, Abreu with refsnyder as the backup would offer some good upside, but also a low floor. It does give them some good experience and growth opportunity while looking more towards 2025 if it doesn't play out well.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Feb 5, 2024 20:39:04 GMT -5
Wilyer Abreu was 19th in top 'ZiPS Gainers' among hitters for 2024 (vs 2023 projections) - he went from 1.8 fWAR to 6.6 fWAR (for 2024-2027). Don't look up who was 20th. Other notables:- Kiké dropped from 6.9 to 1.1 (15th largest drop among hitters) - Alex Binelas dropped from 7 to 1.4 (17th largest drop among hitters) - Adalberto Mondesi dropped from 7.2 to 2.2 (26th largest drop among hitters) - Thad Ward dropped from 3.3 to 0 (30th largest drop among pitchers) blogs.fangraphs.com/zips-2024-2027-movers-and-shakers/
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Feb 5, 2024 21:08:18 GMT -5
Hassell got to the nationals and completely unraveled
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