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If there’s a will, there’s Wilyer — Wilyer Abreu thread
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 10, 2023 23:28:13 GMT -5
We dont even know if Abreu will have enough of a hit tool for his plate discipline to be impactful. I honestly dont think either one should be traded. There's room and a need for both players who do different things that help a team win. I'm not convinced that this is as good as Dursn can do. He already made amazing strides. I dont think .300 hitting leadoff men with 70 stolen base potential, especially on a slow team, should be discarded. Duran won`t steal 70 bases. He turns too many singles into doubles. He could always steal 3b
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radiohix
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Post by radiohix on Sept 11, 2023 11:22:15 GMT -5
Abreu has the superior plate discipline, like it’s not even close. I don’t know about you but I’ll always bet on the hitters with the better strike zone awareness, they’ll get on base even when the BABIP gods don’t show them any love. Abreu is at least playable in RF because of his arm strength, Duran’s a LF only glove. Duran’s a faster and that’s the only aspect that he compares favorably to Abreu. We dont even know if Abreu will have enough of a hit tool for his plate discipline to be impactful. I honestly dont think either one should be traded. There's room and a need for both players who do different things that help a team win. I'm not convinced that this is as good as Dursn can do. He already made amazing strides. I dont think .300 hitting leadoff men with 70 stolen base potential, especially on a slow team, should be discarded. My point was about who’s more expandable of these 2, if the team tries to trade for a pitcher this winter and shops one of its young OFer, I’ll want them to keep: - The younger one with more team control (He’s 3 years younger than Duran) - The better fielder with the arm strength for RF - The one who works counts and gets on base via walks. Duran’s is a BABIP merchant ( His wOBA is WAY higher than his xwOBA) who didn’t change that much from the hitter he was last year besides making a little more contact with pitches in the zone. In 2022 he walked at a mediocre clip of 6.3%, this year it was 6.6%. His chase rate remained basically the same 34.1% (2022) to 34.5% (2023). I want the offense to be built around grinders who drive the opposing pitchers pitch counts and are not reliant on bloopers falling in, Abreu gives me that and Duran doesn’t.
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Post by chaimtime on Sept 11, 2023 11:52:38 GMT -5
We dont even know if Abreu will have enough of a hit tool for his plate discipline to be impactful. I honestly dont think either one should be traded. There's room and a need for both players who do different things that help a team win. I'm not convinced that this is as good as Dursn can do. He already made amazing strides. I dont think .300 hitting leadoff men with 70 stolen base potential, especially on a slow team, should be discarded. My point was about who’s more expandable of these 2, if the team tries to trade for a pitcher this winter and shops one of its young OFer, I’ll want them to keep: - The younger one with more team control (He’s 3 years younger than Duran) - The better fielder with the arm strength for RF - The one who works counts and gets on base via walks. Duran’s is a BABIP merchant ( His wOBA is WAY higher than his xwOBA) who didn’t change that much from the hitter he was last year besides making a little more contact with pitches in the zone. In 2022 he walked at a mediocre clip of 6.3%, this year it was 6.6%. His chase rate remained basically the same 34.1% (2022) to 34.5% (2023). I want the offense to be built around grinders who drive the opposing pitchers pitch counts and are not reliant on bloopers falling in, Abreu gives me that and Duran doesn’t. Duran’s wOBA is way higher than his xwOBA because of his speed. He’ll reach base on grounders that other guys would thrown out on, and he’s able to turn singles into doubles. That gets captured in batting value rather than baserunning value. Unless you don’t buy that his speed is a real skill and that he’ll be able to continue doing so, there’s no reason to believe he won’t continue to out-perform his expected numbers. And for what it’s worth, making more contact with pitches in the zone is not a trivial improvement. In-zone contact rate is one of the most important metrics in baseball, and it’s a very good sign when a boost in zone contact is combined with a significant jump in hard-hit rate.
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radiohix
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Post by radiohix on Sept 11, 2023 12:25:50 GMT -5
My point was about who’s more expandable of these 2, if the team tries to trade for a pitcher this winter and shops one of its young OFer, I’ll want them to keep: - The younger one with more team control (He’s 3 years younger than Duran) - The better fielder with the arm strength for RF - The one who works counts and gets on base via walks. Duran’s is a BABIP merchant ( His wOBA is WAY higher than his xwOBA) who didn’t change that much from the hitter he was last year besides making a little more contact with pitches in the zone. In 2022 he walked at a mediocre clip of 6.3%, this year it was 6.6%. His chase rate remained basically the same 34.1% (2022) to 34.5% (2023). I want the offense to be built around grinders who drive the opposing pitchers pitch counts and are not reliant on bloopers falling in, Abreu gives me that and Duran doesn’t. Duran’s wOBA is way higher than his xwOBA because of his speed. He’ll reach base on grounders that other guys would thrown out on, and he’s able to turn singles into doubles. That gets captured in batting value rather than baserunning value. Unless you don’t buy that his speed is a real skill and that he’ll be able to continue doing so, there’s no reason to believe he won’t continue to out-perform his expected numbers. And for what it’s worth, making more contact with pitches in the zone is not a trivial improvement. In-zone contact rate is one of the most important metrics in baseball, and it’s a very good sign when a boost in zone contact is combined with a significant jump in hard-hit rate. Re: the zone contact rates: it’s a slight improvement from last year, like 1.8% improvement. He went from 87.5% to 89.3%. To my untrained eye, he still struggles to catch up to the fastballs up in the zone. I just don’t see a much improved hitter from the calamity he was a year ago: He’s putting better numbers this year on the surface but the deeper numbers tells a different story, he’s still chasing at the same clip. He’s having better hard hit percentages but but the exit velos are basically the same AND he’s barreling balls less (He went from 7.7% to 5.3%). I just don’t see it and I don’t think he can maintain a .380 BABIP for a whole season to be productive.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Sept 11, 2023 13:05:29 GMT -5
Duran’s wOBA is way higher than his xwOBA because of his speed. He’ll reach base on grounders that other guys would thrown out on, and he’s able to turn singles into doubles. That gets captured in batting value rather than baserunning value. Unless you don’t buy that his speed is a real skill and that he’ll be able to continue doing so, there’s no reason to believe he won’t continue to out-perform his expected numbers. And for what it’s worth, making more contact with pitches in the zone is not a trivial improvement. In-zone contact rate is one of the most important metrics in baseball, and it’s a very good sign when a boost in zone contact is combined with a significant jump in hard-hit rate. Re: the zone contact rates: it’s a slight improvement from last year, like 1.8% improvement. He went from 87.5% to 89.3%. To my untrained eye, he still struggles to catch up to the fastballs up in the zone. I just don’t see a much improved hitter from the calamity he was a year ago: He’s putting better numbers this year on the surface but the deeper numbers tells a different story, he’s still chasing at the same clip. He’s having better hard hit percentages but but the exit velos are basically the same AND he’s barreling balls less (He went from 7.7% to 5.3%). I just don’t see it and I don’t think he can maintain a .380 BABIP for a whole season to be productive. And his control makes him more valuable than Verdugo assuming you believe in him as a player. I think one of those two had to get traded, and I’m curious to see which one goes.
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Post by chaimtime on Sept 11, 2023 14:36:59 GMT -5
Duran’s wOBA is way higher than his xwOBA because of his speed. He’ll reach base on grounders that other guys would thrown out on, and he’s able to turn singles into doubles. That gets captured in batting value rather than baserunning value. Unless you don’t buy that his speed is a real skill and that he’ll be able to continue doing so, there’s no reason to believe he won’t continue to out-perform his expected numbers. And for what it’s worth, making more contact with pitches in the zone is not a trivial improvement. In-zone contact rate is one of the most important metrics in baseball, and it’s a very good sign when a boost in zone contact is combined with a significant jump in hard-hit rate. Re: the zone contact rates: it’s a slight improvement from last year, like 1.8% improvement. He went from 87.5% to 89.3%. To my untrained eye, he still struggles to catch up to the fastballs up in the zone. I just don’t see a much improved hitter from the calamity he was a year ago: He’s putting better numbers this year on the surface but the deeper numbers tells a different story, he’s still chasing at the same clip. He’s having better hard hit percentages but but the exit velos are basically the same AND he’s barreling balls less (He went from 7.7% to 5.3%). I just don’t see it and I don’t think he can maintain a .380 BABIP for a whole season to be productive. He’s hitting the ball hard more often, and Major League Baseball changed the rules of the game to benefit players like him in particular. He’s not hitting balls into the shift anymore, he’s striking out a lot less, and he’s making solid contact much more often. Sounds like he’s made strides as a hitter to me. Even if you ignore the increase in hard hit rate—and I’m not sure why you’d discount an 8 percentage point increase in balls hit 95+ just because the mean EV numbers have taken a more moderate increase, especially when you’re not talking about a home run hitter—he doesn’t need to change a ton from the hitter he was before to be a lot more productive than he was last year. I’m not particularly bothered that he’s not hitting as many fly balls, which is the source of the drop in barrel rate. And it’s not like his chase/whiff/walk/K numbers are bad, they’re just mediocre. Yeah, he’s not gonna be a middle of the order thumper who walks 15% of the time, because that’s not his game. He’s a speed guy who sprays hard contact all over the field and uses his elite speed to get more production out of that. Just because he isn’t a three-true-outcomes guy doesn’t mean he stinks—and again, MLB is doing their best to move the game away from TTO guys anyway, because chaos and randomness make for a more enjoyable product. I’m not even saying he’s a lock to be better than Abreu, who’s looking like a solid player in his own right. It’s just that every person I see who’s convinced that Duran is about to turn back into a pumpkin seem to be basing it mostly on his K/BB rates, which does not make any sense to me.
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Post by soxfanatic on Sept 13, 2023 5:23:47 GMT -5
Very small sample size applies, but Wilyer ranks first in Outside Zone Swing %: 17.3% (min. 40 PA) And...8th in hard hit %.
Super impressive showing so far!
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Post by greatscottcooper on Sept 13, 2023 5:47:22 GMT -5
If the Sox traded away Dugo, I would not hate an Abreu/Refsnyder platoon in the outfield.
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Sept 13, 2023 6:33:11 GMT -5
If the Sox traded away Dugo, I would not hate an Abreu/Refsnyder platoon in the outfield. I'm perhaps slowly coming around on the idea Abreu is a real option to log a lot of PT in the OF next year, that being said if they were to trade Verdugo I would want a better platoon mate than Refsnyder to hedge their bets for possible rookie struggle/coming down to earth for Abreu.
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Post by terriblehondo on Sept 13, 2023 9:18:13 GMT -5
If the Sox traded away Dugo, I would not hate an Abreu/Refsnyder platoon in the outfield. I'm perhaps slowly coming around on the idea Abreu is a real option to log a lot of PT in the OF next year, that being said if they were to trade Verdugo I would want a better platoon mate than Refsnyder to hedge their bets for possible rookie struggle/coming down to earth for Abreu. If you trade Verdugo. At this point in time that would be an outfield of what? Masa, Duran, Abreu, Refsnyder and Rafaela. Man that would be scary when I think of how bad that could turn out.
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Sept 13, 2023 9:24:21 GMT -5
I'm perhaps slowly coming around on the idea Abreu is a real option to log a lot of PT in the OF next year, that being said if they were to trade Verdugo I would want a better platoon mate than Refsnyder to hedge their bets for possible rookie struggle/coming down to earth for Abreu. If you trade Verdugo. At this point in time that would be an outfield of what? Masa, Duran, Abreu, Refsnyder and Rafaela. Man that would be scary when I think of how bad that could turn out. Yes, probably would be looking at Duran/Rafaela/Abreu with Refsnyder as a 5th OF and try and bring back Duvall or someone of that ilk so Duran/Rafaela/Abreu/Duvall/Refsnyder. I'm with you I don't love the thought, it has plenty of upside but the downside is one of the worst offensive OFs in the league. Defensively it could be one of the better OFs though. With that being the case I don't see a Verdugo trade happening.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Sept 14, 2023 7:06:22 GMT -5
If you trade Verdugo. At this point in time that would be an outfield of what? Masa, Duran, Abreu, Refsnyder and Rafaela. Man that would be scary when I think of how bad that could turn out. Yes, probably would be looking at Duran/Rafaela/Abreu with Refsnyder as a 5th OF and try and bring back Duvall or someone of that ilk so Duran/Rafaela/Abreu/Duvall/Refsnyder. I'm with you I don't love the thought, it has plenty of upside but the downside is one of the worst offensive OFs in the league. Defensively it could be one of the better OFs though. With that being the case I don't see a Verdugo trade happening. This and your last response to my post is pretty much my exact line of thinking. I'm just going by what we have on the roster and taking into consideration that Ref is under contract. Abreu doesn't really have much of a spot on the roster with Duran/Verdugo out there, although he would be a nice depth piece to come up if one of them went down. The more I think about it, the more I'm on board with keeping Verdugo. The free agent market in the outfield is just too thin and if resources are to be spent, they're better spent on pitching. Abreu's future certainly intrigues me. To be honest, he has kind of been an afterthought as a prospect to me until recently. Certainly not the sexiest profile but there's obviously a real MLBer in there in some capacity.
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pd
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Post by pd on Sept 14, 2023 8:20:40 GMT -5
Duran-Rafaela-Abreu this is the way Roman Anthony says not for long.
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radiohix
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Post by radiohix on Sept 14, 2023 8:58:03 GMT -5
If Justin Turner leaves this winter, the lineup will be composed of too many free swingers beside Casas, I believe Yoshida’s walk rate will improve next year and maybe they keep Urias but after these 3? Oh boy! Story and Wong swinging at sliders that bounce in front of the plate, Devers chasing neck high fastballs and Duran who will swing at anything inside even if it hits him? The horror. I’m cool with 2-3 agressive hitters in my lineup if they’re good at the other aspects of the game but you can’t have a lineup of 5-6 of the likes of Duval. I need my Venezuelan king of walks playing every day.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 15, 2023 9:43:33 GMT -5
Abreu Statctast, Expected top line, actual beneath:
.299 / .375 / .513 = .384 wOBA (55 PA)
.367 / .411 / .510 = .411
Since 8/22 when he made his debut, there are 250 players with 50+ PA. Abreu ranks 38th in xwOBA and 27th in wOBA, 85th and 89th percentile respectively.
He has a -2% Success Rate Added in CF, which puts him 99th out of 123, but he's 0 overall, which means he's been very good in LF in too small a sample size to show up in the rankings. The CF numbers, which aren't awful, translate to plus defense in LF.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Sept 15, 2023 9:51:11 GMT -5
It’s hard to get a good feel for these outfielders from Worcester this year because they’ve all had some crazy high BABIPs after getting the call up. I do think the patience and power combo will serve Abreu well long term, though. His LD% is unsustainable so far, but he avoids GBs really well which I also love long term.
Next year I think Yoshida, Abreu, Duran, and Rafaela all would be significant risks if you assume they’ll hit enough to start in the OF or DH in Yoshida’s case.
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radiohix
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Post by radiohix on Sept 15, 2023 9:54:27 GMT -5
It’s hard to get a good feel for these outfielders from Worcester this year because they’ve all had some crazy high BABIPs after getting the call up. Forget the BABIP and the look at the approach (using the whole field aka hit the ball where it’s pitched) and the swing decisions. It’s clear to me that Abreu is the best hitting OFer we have.
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Post by fenwaydouble on Sept 15, 2023 10:00:54 GMT -5
It’s hard to get a good feel for these outfielders from Worcester this year because they’ve all had some crazy high BABIPs after getting the call up. I do think the patience and power combo will serve Abreu well long term, though. His LD% is unsustainable so far, but he avoids GBs really well which I also love long term. Next year I think Yoshida, Abreu, Duran, and Rafaela all would be significant risks if you assume they’ll hit enough to start in the OF or DH in Yoshida’s case. Agreed. Things are looking up overall, but the team is in a weird spot going into next year. Too many guys who have too much potential to replace but are too unproven to feel totally confident in.
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Post by manfred on Sept 15, 2023 10:07:09 GMT -5
If the Sox traded away Dugo, I would not hate an Abreu/Refsnyder platoon in the outfield. I think they may have squeezed Refsnyder’s value out of him. I don’t think he is a legit starter, even as a platoon player.
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Post by julyanmorley on Sept 15, 2023 10:07:18 GMT -5
It’s hard to get a good feel for these outfielders from Worcester this year because they’ve all had some crazy high BABIPs after getting the call up. Forget the BABIP and the look at the approach (using the whole field aka hit the ball where it’s pitched) and the swing decisions. It’s clear to me that Abreu is the best hitting OFer we have. FWIW the Red Sox director of hitting development's philosophy is that the most important things for a batter are:
1) Bat speed 2) Smash factor (big gap) 3) Swing decisions
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Post by pk on Sept 15, 2023 10:10:02 GMT -5
It’s hard to get a good feel for these outfielders from Worcester this year because they’ve all had some crazy high BABIPs after getting the call up. I do think the patience and power combo will serve Abreu well long term, though. His LD% is unsustainable so far, but he avoids GBs really well which I also love long term. Next year I think Yoshida, Abreu, Duran, and Rafaela all would be significant risks if you assume they’ll hit enough to start in the OF or DH in Yoshida’s case. Eternal optimist in me, but an outfield of Duvall (re-signed), Duran, Abreu, Rafaela, and Ref would not worry me. High floor with solid defense, good speed, significant upside, and low cost. Allows for money to be spent on starting pitching. Yoshida primarily DH, and Anthony a year or two away. If we could keep Turner (I would be nervous about losing his leadership), then Yoshida rotating into the outfield and Rafaela spelling second/short/CF.
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Post by incandenza on Sept 15, 2023 10:25:21 GMT -5
If the Sox traded away Dugo, I would not hate an Abreu/Refsnyder platoon in the outfield. I think they may have squeezed Refsnyder’s value out of him. I don’t think he is a legit starter, even as a platoon player. He has a .432 OBP against lefties and a 135 wRC+. What exactly is your standard for the weak side of a platoon?
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Post by manfred on Sept 15, 2023 10:32:10 GMT -5
I think they may have squeezed Refsnyder’s value out of him. I don’t think he is a legit starter, even as a platoon player. He has a .432 OBP against lefties and a 135 wRC+. What exactly is your standard for the weak side of a platoon? He has been unimpressive of late, and he is so vulnerable that — especially in the age of openers — he’s too easy to flip on early. Broadly, I think a huge problem these past years has been trying to be too cute with stats… splits, situational stuff, etc. You get a bench of specialists — when you need generalists. One thing I like about Abreu in the little I’ve seen is he doesn’t look *bad* at anything. He fields decently, throws well, makes good contact, has a good eye. So many of the OF have a glaring weakness that has been really damaging (e.g. Yoshida’s glove). I hope Duran has ironed out some of his weak spots. But I want to see an OF of 3 guys we expect to play 145-150 games.
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Post by incandenza on Sept 15, 2023 11:18:03 GMT -5
He has a .432 OBP against lefties and a 135 wRC+. What exactly is your standard for the weak side of a platoon? He has been unimpressive of late, and he is so vulnerable that — especially in the age of openers — he’s too easy to flip on early. Broadly, I think a huge problem these past years has been trying to be too cute with stats… splits, situational stuff, etc. You get a bench of specialists — when you need generalists. One thing I like about Abreu in the little I’ve seen is he doesn’t look *bad* at anything. He fields decently, throws well, makes good contact, has a good eye. So many of the OF have a glaring weakness that has been really damaging (e.g. Yoshida’s glove). I hope Duran has ironed out some of his weak spots. But I want to see an OF of 3 guys we expect to play 145-150 games. We're talking about a 5th outfielder, though, making $1.85 million next season. You might get a "generalist" for that role but they're not going to be a very good one. They're certainly not likely to be second on the team in OBP.
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Post by bojacksoxfan on Sept 15, 2023 11:22:08 GMT -5
Forget the BABIP and the look at the approach (using the whole field aka hit the ball where it’s pitched) and the swing decisions. It’s clear to me that Abreu is the best hitting OFer we have. FWIW the Red Sox director of hitting development's philosophy is that the most important things for a batter are:
1) Bat speed 2) Smash factor (big gap) 3) Swing decisions
Do you have a source for that? I’m very curious what smash factor means or how it’s measured.
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