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If there’s a will, there’s Wilyer — Wilyer Abreu thread
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Post by bluechip on Sept 10, 2023 8:16:11 GMT -5
Great start to his career. Obviously he will cool off. Hopefully the hit streak continues through the stretch run. Still going strong. Really should be playing everyday as he remains hot.
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radiohix
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'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,581
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Post by radiohix on Sept 10, 2023 8:46:52 GMT -5
I have no doubt in my mind that Abreu is better than Duran and if one of them should be traded, it should be Duran.
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Post by cba82 on Sept 10, 2023 8:48:17 GMT -5
It’s going to be a crowded outfield in 2024. Something needs to give.
Fortunately, the Sox will be dealing from a position of strength.
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nomar
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Posts: 11,497
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Post by nomar on Sept 10, 2023 8:53:30 GMT -5
I have no doubt in my mind that Abreu is better than Duran and if one of them should be traded, it should be Duran. I wouldn’t say I have no doubt but I think this offseason would be a good time to capitalize on the value he has built for himself and might lose. He’d be a great chip in a trade for a controllable pitcher
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radiohix
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'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,581
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Post by radiohix on Sept 10, 2023 8:57:34 GMT -5
I have no doubt in my mind that Abreu is better than Duran and if one of them should be traded, it should be Duran. I wouldn’t say I have no doubt but I think this offseason would be a good time to capitalize on the value he has built for himself and might lose. He’d be a great chip in a trade for a controllable pitcher It should be Duran who gets moved then capitalizing on the value he has built 😉
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Post by manfred on Sept 10, 2023 9:00:58 GMT -5
I am 100% against moving Duran to make room for Abreu. First, it seems unnecessary. Second, Duran was great this year, has a better pedigree, and provides massive value with his speed. Abreu has looked good in the briefest stop, but the jury is out.
It doesn’t seem necessary, again, to do anything, since they are both cheap and controlled.
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radiohix
Veteran
'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,581
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Post by radiohix on Sept 10, 2023 9:17:10 GMT -5
I am 100% against moving Duran to make room for Abreu. First, it seems unnecessary. Second, Duran was great this year, has a better pedigree, and provides massive value with his speed. Abreu has looked good in the briefest stop, but the jury is out. It doesn’t seem necessary, again, to do anything, since they are both cheap and controlled. Abreu has the superior plate discipline, like it’s not even close. I don’t know about you but I’ll always bet on the hitters with the better strike zone awareness, they’ll get on base even when the BABIP gods don’t show them any love. Abreu is at least playable in RF because of his arm strength, Duran’s a LF only glove. Duran’s a faster and that’s the only aspect that he compares favorably to Abreu.
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Post by rhswanzey on Sept 10, 2023 9:20:21 GMT -5
Duran’s been out for almost a month and is still only three doubles behind the league leader.
I think an emerging Abreu is worse news for Verdugo than Duran. He has a big time arm you can park in RF and both are LHH. I feel I’m in the minority as far as not being thrilled about potentially moving on from Verdugo - we have so few players who are positives on offense and defense. He also runs one of the lowest strikeout rates in the league. It’d be really aggressive turning RF over to Abreu after a good month, especially without much of a backup plan in tow. But it’s possible it could happen.
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 11,497
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Post by nomar on Sept 10, 2023 9:24:50 GMT -5
I wouldn’t say I have no doubt but I think this offseason would be a good time to capitalize on the value he has built for himself and might lose. He’d be a great chip in a trade for a controllable pitcher It should be Duran who gets moved then capitalizing on the value he has built 😉 Thats what I meant. Duran has established himself and has much more trade value, so he can actually be a huge part of a trade for a starting pitcher IMO. But I don’t think you can assume Abreu will be ready to be an everyday player next April. There might be a solid chance that he could be, but I think they’d want the depth again (so they’d bring Duvall back in this scenario IMO)
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Sept 10, 2023 9:35:35 GMT -5
I have no doubt in my mind that Abreu is better than Duran and if one of them should be traded, it should be Duran. Would it not make more sense to trade one year left of arbitration of Verdugo, whose value is so much more established and who the Sox would let walk after the season even if he was not traded? 2024-Outfield Duran in LF, Rafaele in CF, Duvala / Abreu in RF. Duvala resigned as they need to attempt to keep some RH power. Duvala backs up CF, Abreu backs up LF and Refsnyder is the fifth OF'er for depth. Why does anyone believe the Red Sox do not intend to start Rafaele in CF next year? Due to his D his basement is solid but his upside still needs to be seen.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Sept 10, 2023 10:18:48 GMT -5
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Post by kevfc89 on Sept 10, 2023 10:23:46 GMT -5
“The plate discipline he has, it’s like (Triston) Casas,” Devers said through translator Carlos Villoria Benítez. “They are really good at their plate discipline and the pitches that they swing (at). And that swing that he has is really amazing and he’s going to be a good player.”
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Post by wcsoxfan on Sept 10, 2023 10:53:48 GMT -5
A few interesting bits regarding Abreu's defense from the early statcast information. Please note that some of these sample sizes are very small and wouldn't be considered statistically relevant by most qualifiers.
98.9 max arm strength: would place him 22nd of 184 OFers with 50+ attempts if he qualified. For comparison: JBJ is 98.6, Hunter Renfroe is 98.5 and Verdugo is 97.9.
Baserunners have attempted 7 advances in 22 opportunities. That's 4% above expected in holding runners but he hasn't thrown anyone out yet.
-1 OAA. Catch success is 1% above expected (4 attempts) in the corners but 2% below expected (13 attempts) in center.
26.7 ft/sec (35th percentile) sprint speed as a baserunner. 2 for 8 on advance opportunities.
Not much to be made from his defensive success (catches or throwing out baserunners) but he has 10 outfield assists (all from the corners) and only 1 error in 652.1 AAA innings this season; so there's reason for optimism.
His max arm strength places him over the 90th percentile. Given that max arm strength is based off a single throw, he appears to have plus pure arm strength. That doesn't mean he's consistent or accurate (so not necessarily a plus arm), but again gives reason for optimism.
Sprint speed stabilizes fairly early, so it's likely he's in the fringe-average to average range - this coincides with his SP scouting report of "average speed" and "has already started to slow down".
Many reasons for optimism for Abreu but early statcast results have me agreeing with the SP scouting report: "Could be an above-average defender in right field, but projects as fringe-average in center field."
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Post by incandenza on Sept 10, 2023 11:13:36 GMT -5
A few interesting bits regarding Abreu's defense from the early statcast information. Please note that some of these sample sizes are very small and wouldn't be considered statistically relevant by most qualifiers. 98.9 max arm strength: would place him 22nd of 184 OFers with 50+ attempts if he qualified. For comparison: JBJ is 98.6, Hunter Renfroe is 98.5 and Verdugo is 97.9. Baserunners have attempted 7 advances in 22 opportunities. That's 4% above expected in holding runners but he hasn't thrown anyone out yet. -1 OAA. Catch success is 1% above expected (4 attempts) in the corners but 2% below expected (13 attempts) in center.26.7 ft/sec (35th percentile) sprint speed as a baserunner. 2 for 8 on advance opportunities. Not much to be made from his defensive success (catches or throwing out baserunners) but he has 10 outfield assists (all from the corners) and only 1 error in 652.1 AAA innings this season; so there's reason for optimism. His max arm strength places him over the 90th percentile. Given that max arm strength is based off a single throw, he appears to have plus pure arm strength. That doesn't mean he's consistent or accurate (so not necessarily a plus arm), but again gives reason for optimism. Sprint speed stabilizes fairly early, so it's likely he's in the fringe-average to average range - this coincides with his SP scouting report of "average speed" and "has already started to slow down". Many reasons for optimism for Abreu but early statcast results have me agreeing with the SP scouting report: "Could be an above-average defender in right field, but projects as fringe-average in center field." I have to imagine that one bonehead play in Tampa is entirely responsible for the negative rating in CF. (In fact I don't know how he could possibly be only -2% on 13 attempts when one of those 13 was an almost automatic out that he botched.)
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Post by terriblehondo on Sept 10, 2023 11:43:00 GMT -5
A few interesting bits regarding Abreu's defense from the early statcast information. Please note that some of these sample sizes are very small and wouldn't be considered statistically relevant by most qualifiers. 98.9 max arm strength: would place him 22nd of 184 OFers with 50+ attempts if he qualified. For comparison: JBJ is 98.6, Hunter Renfroe is 98.5 and Verdugo is 97.9. Baserunners have attempted 7 advances in 22 opportunities. That's 4% above expected in holding runners but he hasn't thrown anyone out yet. -1 OAA. Catch success is 1% above expected (4 attempts) in the corners but 2% below expected (13 attempts) in center.26.7 ft/sec (35th percentile) sprint speed as a baserunner. 2 for 8 on advance opportunities. Not much to be made from his defensive success (catches or throwing out baserunners) but he has 10 outfield assists (all from the corners) and only 1 error in 652.1 AAA innings this season; so there's reason for optimism. His max arm strength places him over the 90th percentile. Given that max arm strength is based off a single throw, he appears to have plus pure arm strength. That doesn't mean he's consistent or accurate (so not necessarily a plus arm), but again gives reason for optimism. Sprint speed stabilizes fairly early, so it's likely he's in the fringe-average to average range - this coincides with his SP scouting report of "average speed" and "has already started to slow down". Many reasons for optimism for Abreu but early statcast results have me agreeing with the SP scouting report: "Could be an above-average defender in right field, but projects as fringe-average in center field." I have to imagine that one bonehead play in Tampa is entirely responsible for the negative rating in CF. (In fact I don't know how he could possibly be only -2% on 13 attempts when one of those 13 was an almost automatic out that he botched.) He is not a CF he is a guy you can throw out there when you are in a bind. Just like Duvall, if you want below average defense in center he can play it. You sure as hell don't want that playing next to Masa.
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Post by nonothing on Sept 10, 2023 18:23:21 GMT -5
Ty all re: defense. He is certainly making a good case for at least a 4th OF role next year. I still think it would be best to assume one of Abreu or Rafaela are on the team and the other starts in AAA and comes up when injuries occur. Just seems like a blow to depth to assume both make it. But this is fun to watch and it opens flexibility re: potential trades for controllable SP.
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cdj
Veteran
Posts: 15,636
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Post by cdj on Sept 10, 2023 19:00:22 GMT -5
Duran-Rafaela-Abreu
this is the way
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Post by jbuttah on Sept 10, 2023 19:19:16 GMT -5
Duran-Rafaela-Abreu this is the way Yes. Let Turner go. Yoshida is the DH. Verdugo traded. I think when he's not going well, he's just a downer in the clubhouse.
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Post by RedSoxStats on Sept 10, 2023 19:20:37 GMT -5
Duran-Rafaela-Abreu this is the way While I like all of them in their own ways, it feels like relying on that group has way too much of a chance to go spectacularly poorly, imo.
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cdj
Veteran
Posts: 15,636
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Post by cdj on Sept 10, 2023 19:23:26 GMT -5
Duran-Rafaela-Abreu this is the way While I like all of them in their own ways, it feels like relying on that group has way too much of a chance to go spectacularly poorly, imo. Oh it can be absolutely horrific if it goes awry, very boom or bust. I do think Duvall is the perfect guy to add to that mix for insurance. Best case scenario he ends up with 300-400 AB’s and the kids play well, worst case he’s basically out there every night Tough to punt on Verdugo though, the rare + bat/+ glove on this team
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Post by bettsonmookie on Sept 10, 2023 20:01:28 GMT -5
While I like all of them in their own ways, it feels like relying on that group has way too much of a chance to go spectacularly poorly, imo. Oh it can be absolutely horrific if it goes awry, very boom or bust. I do think Duvall is the perfect guy to add to that mix for insurance. Best case scenario he ends up with 300-400 AB’s and the kids play well, worst case he’s basically out there every night Tough to punt on Verdugo though, the rare + bat/+ glove on this team I like the upside of a career best season from Verdugo in 2024. He is going to be playing for the next contract, and motivation/makeup has now been called into question. I expect him to bring the best he has to offer in '24 and want that upside transpiring in Boston. Also, if he does play well in his walk year, it could set up a possible draft compensation situation. The QO is not much higher for 1 year than most have assumed Verdugo will be able to get for AAV across a 4-5 year deal once he reaches the open market.
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Post by oldfaithful2019 on Sept 10, 2023 20:45:52 GMT -5
While I like all of them in their own ways, it feels like relying on that group has way too much of a chance to go spectacularly poorly, imo. Oh it can be absolutely horrific if it goes awry, very boom or bust. I do think Duvall is the perfect guy to add to that mix for insurance. Best case scenario he ends up with 300-400 AB’s and the kids play well, worst case he’s basically out there every night Tough to punt on Verdugo though, the rare + bat/+ glove on this team A trade of Verdugo would need to either make the team better defensively as a result of the trade return or improve, substantially, the 2024 starting pitching. If not, hard no.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 10, 2023 22:43:23 GMT -5
I am 100% against moving Duran to make room for Abreu. First, it seems unnecessary. Second, Duran was great this year, has a better pedigree, and provides massive value with his speed. Abreu has looked good in the briefest stop, but the jury is out. It doesn’t seem necessary, again, to do anything, since they are both cheap and controlled. Abreu has the superior plate discipline, like it’s not even close. I don’t know about you but I’ll always bet on the hitters with the better strike zone awareness, they’ll get on base even when the BABIP gods don’t show them any love. Abreu is at least playable in RF because of his arm strength, Duran’s a LF only glove. Duran’s a faster and that’s the only aspect that he compares favorably to Abreu. We dont even know if Abreu will have enough of a hit tool for his plate discipline to be impactful. I honestly dont think either one should be traded. There's room and a need for both players who do different things that help a team win. I'm not convinced that this is as good as Dursn can do. He already made amazing strides. I dont think .300 hitting leadoff men with 70 stolen base potential, especially on a slow team, should be discarded.
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Post by rhswanzey on Sept 10, 2023 22:48:20 GMT -5
Oh it can be absolutely horrific if it goes awry, very boom or bust. I do think Duvall is the perfect guy to add to that mix for insurance. Best case scenario he ends up with 300-400 AB’s and the kids play well, worst case he’s basically out there every night Tough to punt on Verdugo though, the rare + bat/+ glove on this team A trade of Verdugo would need to either make the team better defensively as a result of the trade return or improve, substantially, the 2024 starting pitching. If not, hard no. How about trading him for an older, worse, more expensive player who plays the same position, and a couple of fringe prospects who don’t pitch
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Post by keninten on Sept 10, 2023 22:54:17 GMT -5
Abreu has the superior plate discipline, like it’s not even close. I don’t know about you but I’ll always bet on the hitters with the better strike zone awareness, they’ll get on base even when the BABIP gods don’t show them any love. Abreu is at least playable in RF because of his arm strength, Duran’s a LF only glove. Duran’s a faster and that’s the only aspect that he compares favorably to Abreu. We dont even know if Abreu will have enough of a hit tool for his plate discipline to be impactful. I honestly dont think either one should be traded. There's room and a need for both players who do different things that help a team win. I'm not convinced that this is as good as Dursn can do. He already made amazing strides. I dont think .300 hitting leadoff men with 70 stolen base potential, especially on a slow team, should be discarded. Duran won`t steal 70 bases. He turns too many singles into doubles.
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