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8/5-8/7 Red Sox @ Royals Series Thread
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Post by scottysmalls on Aug 5, 2024 22:47:48 GMT -5
Baseball game outcomes should be determined by expected runs not runs. but you know this is not the point anyone is making. The point is just that in general for most pitchers if you want to predict how many runs they will allow in the future essentially every other pitching stat is better than ERA
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asm18
Veteran
Posts: 2,524
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Post by asm18 on Aug 5, 2024 22:54:53 GMT -5
James Paxton tonight:
41 curveballs 28 sinkers 18 four seamers 3 changeups (pretty sure these were all in the 6th inning)
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Post by notstarboard on Aug 5, 2024 23:00:54 GMT -5
I disagree that it's a skill for the vast majority of people. Why do you think it is? For example, Singer's xERA was greater than his ERA in '22 and '24 and lower in '20 (pretty small sample, and not that much lower), '21, and '23. If he can't even outperform his xERA year after year, how is doing so this year somehow a skill?
ERA is a borderline useless stat, despite more directly tracking the outcome people care most about, because it is horribly dependent on park factors, defense, luck, scoring decisions, bullpen quality / managerial decisions, and other things entirely out of the pitcher's control. I don't care who has allowed earned runs at the lowest rate so far this year. I care who is more likely to allow fewer earned runs tomorrow. That is how you define which pitcher is actually better, and that guy for KC is Ragans. I don't care much if xERA, FIP, xFIP, SIERA, etc. is your stat of choice; Ragans basically sweeps them all.
No stat predicts future ERA very well but xERA is noticeably better at it than regular ERA. SIERA does the best job but still not a very good one I've read an article looking into this, and my takeaway was, "why are we trying to predict ERA at all?" ERA is just a fundamentally flawed stat, to the point where I don't think there's much of any value in trying to predict it. ERA seems closer to what you actually want if you don't think about it hard, since ERA sounds like the runs the pitcher directly caused not caused by defensive gaffes, but given all the aforementioned problems with the stat, that isn't really what it's telling us. Advanced pitching stats are generally designed to cut through the noise and get at exactly how well a pitcher was actually throwing. I would rather trust these to paint a picture of performance themselves without mapping back to ERA. At the end of the day, runs are all that matter. But why blame the pitcher for runs that were actually the fault of the manager for putting in a crappy reliever who allowed all inherited runners to score, or the defense for having terrible range and not getting to some balls that should have been outs, or the ballpark for giving the opponents cheap homers on poorly hit balls that would have been outs anywhere else, or even the scorer for making a questionable hit/error decision? I'd prefer to blame or credit the pitcher for what they can actually control, irrespective of these factors.
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Post by scottysmalls on Aug 5, 2024 23:09:21 GMT -5
No stat predicts future ERA very well but xERA is noticeably better at it than regular ERA. SIERA does the best job but still not a very good one I've read an article looking into this, and my takeaway was, "why are we trying to predict ERA at all?" ERA is just a fundamentally flawed stat, to the point where I don't think there's much of any value in trying to predict it. ERA seems closer to what you actually want if you don't think about it hard, since ERA sounds like the runs the pitcher directly caused not caused by defensive gaffes, but given all the aforementioned problems with the stat, that isn't really what it's telling us. Advanced pitching stats are generally designed to cut through the noise and get at exactly how well a pitcher was actually throwing. I would rather trust these to paint a picture of performance themselves without mapping back to ERA. At the end of the day, runs are all that matter. But why blame the pitcher for runs that were actually the fault of the manager for putting in a crappy reliever who allowed all inherited runners to score, or the defense for having terrible range and not getting to some balls that should have been outs, or the ballpark for giving the opponents cheap homers on poorly hit balls that would have been outs anywhere else, or even the scorer for making a questionable hit/error decision? I'd prefer to blame or credit the pitcher for what they can actually control, irrespective of these factors. I pretty much agree with this my point was more in reaction to philsbosox saying that gaps between xERA and ERA are showing a skill, if that was the case then it follows that ERA would predict itself better than xERA does but this is not the case
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Aug 5, 2024 23:15:27 GMT -5
Chris Martin presumably takes Criswell’s spot? Tough one, isn't it? Criswell can start and eat innings. But all of a sudden all the current arms are useful. Not sure what they will do. DL Crawford (tired shoulder) for a couple weeks R&R.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Aug 5, 2024 23:16:12 GMT -5
Baseball game outcomes should be determined by expected runs not runs. but you know this is not the point anyone is making. The point is just that in general for most pitchers if you want to predict how many runs they will allow in the future essentially every other pitching stat is better than ERA I don't disagree with that, I disagree with who the staff ace has been as posted in the original post. On the other hand, one game, season is on the line for KC and all things otherwise equal. Lugo would be my starter. Ragans 3rd choice.
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Post by marrcus on Aug 5, 2024 23:19:13 GMT -5
Had their hitting shoes on last night (Romy blast wow), as Devers proceeds on way to a 1.0 OPS. Hope they remain hot...
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Post by bluechip on Aug 5, 2024 23:41:36 GMT -5
Kinda shocking no one won 500 games between Pinky Higgins and Francona m: that was a 40 year gap, when there were periods of very good teams. Also kind of shocking no one won five hundred games in the 35 years before Cronin, again when there were periods of good teams. Frankly it’s even shocking that Pinky Higgins, presiding over a chunk of the least successful period in franchise history, had that many wins.
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Post by keninten on Aug 6, 2024 0:22:49 GMT -5
Houston and Atlanta dropping fast.
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Post by dirtywaterinla on Aug 6, 2024 0:42:31 GMT -5
Chris Martin presumably takes Criswell’s spot? I hope not. They need a long man/spot starter. Tough call, but likely Winck or Kelly unless Bernie implodes again in his next appearance.
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Post by okin15 on Aug 6, 2024 4:47:52 GMT -5
You’re all wrong on announcer-gate Merloni-Monaco full time is the only right answer Am I the only one who likes Youk?? Not at all. Love him as much as an announcer as I did as a player. I used to love DOB and think he’s the second best radio guy I’ve ever heard behind Castig. I did like Monaco though, and the variety in the second chair this season has been lots of fun.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Aug 6, 2024 5:48:28 GMT -5
The KC announcers, whoever they were are decent. They seemed to have a decent grasp of the Sox, especially the rookies with graphics. Highly complimentary of Rafaela's catch.
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Post by okin15 on Aug 6, 2024 5:48:29 GMT -5
Chris Martin presumably takes Criswell’s spot? I hope not. They need a long man/spot starter. Tough call, but likely Winck or Kelly unless Bernie implodes again in his next appearance. Debby could factor into their decision as they may well be playing two on Sunday. They might also need to play Thursday if possible or a home game next week while they’re in Houston. Friday and Saturday both look wet at best.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 6, 2024 6:16:03 GMT -5
Kinda shocking no one won 500 games between Pinky Higgins and Francona m: that was a 40 year gap, when there were periods of very good teams. Also kind of shocking no one won five hundred games in the 35 years before Cronin, again when there were periods of good teams. Frankly it’s even shocking that Pinky Higgins, presiding over a chunk of the least successful period in franchise history, had that many wins. The Red Sox simply changed managers a lot. 3 - 4 years seemed to be a consistent shelf life, win or lose, so the list of Sox managers with 500 wins or more is low. A bigot like Higgins made the list because by then Yawkey was so far gone into his alcohol days at that point, that the GM chair changed more often and Higgins was the only constant at that point. It wasn't until Dick O'Connell finally assumed control as Yawkey was drying out, that Higgins was finally booted. With Cronin, he was Yawkey's guy from the get go. Only when he got kicked upstairs, like Higgins, did his managerial tenure end (in Higgins case he managed the Sox twice with the break being less than a year, sort of like Cora, lol). But everybody else didnt manage the Sox particularly long. Even in their glory days they cycled thru Jake Stahl who left after their best year, 1912, Bill Carrigan (Carrigan returned to manage the Sox years later, briefly, when they were awful), who like Stahl, found a business vocation he preferred, in his case banking, Jack Barry for a year before he wound up fighting in WW1, and Ed Barrow in 1918, who lasted another season and joined and hastened the mass exodus to the Yankees. All it seems to take is a disappointing season and the manager is in jeopardy, for the most part. Dick William's the hero in 67 gets into it with an unimpressed Yawkey, pops off after a perceived sleight. And is fired. Darrell Johnson gets them to the series in 75, loses control of the bottle, and is replaced by Zimmer. Zim has a gaudy winning pct but blows 2 pennant races and is pretty much mocked and reviled by everybody during his tenure until hes canned after 4 season. Houck has 4 full seasons and like his other teams, was never fired. He just simply retired. McNamara screws up the 86 Series. Mrs. Yawkey (rightfully) blames him and hes gone by midseason. Walpole Joe gives them 3.5 good years and the brass decides Butch Hobson is too good a managerial candidate to lose to another organization so they dump Morgan to promote Hobson. Morgan tells the brass the team isnt as good as they think it is...and hes proven right. Keven Kennedy leads the Sox to an unexpected division title in 95 and rankles Duquette to the point hes gone after 96. It takes Jim Williams longer to rankle Duquette but he does repeatedly and despite having surprising success Duquette finally dumps him for Joe Kerrigan in 2001 and the team responded by sinking like a stone. So in comes new ownership and Grady Little, the non analytical guy, and we know the reasons why he was fired. And we all know what followed. Managers in Boston have a short shelf life. Cora is the rare one that's highly regarded by ownership (and in my opinion that might be unpopular, rightfully so). Congrats on 500 AC.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Aug 6, 2024 6:44:20 GMT -5
in case you missed it: Aug. 5: RHP Chris Martin could skip rehab and be activated Wednesday The original plan for trusted setup man Martin was that he would make one Minor League rehab appearance on Wednesday. However, Red Sox manager Alex Cora said both Sunday in Texas and Monday in Kansas City that Martin could be activated Wednesday instead. Cora said the club will learn more about how Martin is feeling either late Monday night or Tuesday. Martin has been out since July 4 with right elbow inflammation. Aug. 5: OF Tyler O'Neill out of lineup again due to illness For the third straight day, O'Neill's big bat was not in the lineup for Boston as the outfielder was still recovering from an illness. Red Sox manager Alex Cora said that O'Neill was feeling better and is still available off the bench, but the expectation is that he won't return to the lineup until Wednesday, at the earliest. www.mlb.com/news/red-sox-injuries-and-roster-moves
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Aug 6, 2024 6:51:52 GMT -5
My five cents (US inflation)..
Antonellis is my favorite announcer in the Sox organization and has been ever since Lefler left Salem to become obscure announcing frisbee matches. Monaco second.
Special tip of the hat to Ed Jenson (RIP) who had a voice that made you think he looked like Harry Carey but was actually athletic looking. He was always interesting and would get my pick for announcer who I would have liked to have had a beer with.
ADD: I don't expect to get old enough to ever think Tito was my favorite manager.
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Post by ematz1423 on Aug 6, 2024 7:51:24 GMT -5
Going to continue with the don't get greedy mindset, win one of the next two and leave KC closer in the standings to that 3rd WC spot than they entered.
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Post by kwodes on Aug 6, 2024 8:23:09 GMT -5
Going to continue with the don't get greedy mindset, win one of the next two and leave KC closer in the standings to that 3rd WC spot than they entered. feels like tonight is a "must win". Don't want to need tomorrow's game with Ragans pitching. We want tomorrow to be the "playing with house money" game.
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 11,497
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Post by nomar on Aug 6, 2024 9:11:49 GMT -5
They got to Lugo for 10H (only team to do so this year) and 5R last time. He should be on his heels and the Sox foot should be on the gas. Keep him uncomfortable
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Post by LoneStarSox on Aug 6, 2024 10:02:22 GMT -5
They got to Lugo for 10H (only team to do so this year) and 5R last time. He should be on his heels and the Sox foot should be on the gas. Keep him uncomfortable since that game he followed it up with a complete game (1 ER) against the CWS, 6 innings and 6 ER against the cubbies and then 8 innings of 1 run ball against the scuffling tigers. Let’s hope that up and down trend continues tonight.
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Post by wvusox on Aug 6, 2024 10:30:51 GMT -5
After yesterday's 9-run, 16-hit onslaught, the Sox offense now leads MLB in: OPS, .776 over #2 BAL's .774 2B, 228 over #2 MIN's 224 Hits, 1023 over SD's 1014 despite playing (2) fewer games
Sox are 2nd in MLB: SLG, .446 AVG, mere percentage pts behind SD (.26365 vs .26359) AB, 2nd to BAL (3903 vs 3881) despite playing (2) fewer games
Other Categories: T-3rd in 3B, despite playing (2) fewer games than both teams ranked above us 4th in OBP, .330 5th in Runs despite playing (2) fewer games than all 4 teams ranked above us 5th in RBI despite playing (2) fewer games than all 4 teams ranked above us 6th in HR, despite playing 1-3 fewer games than all 5 teams ranked above us 6th in SB T-14th in Walks (need to do better here) T-25th in Games Played
Only negative: 4th in SO despite playing 2-3 fewer games than the team ranked ahead of us, will definitely surpass OAK but should stay behind SEA & COL
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Aug 6, 2024 11:14:18 GMT -5
They got to Lugo for 10H (only team to do so this year) and 5R last time. He should be on his heels and the Sox foot should be on the gas. Keep him uncomfortable since that game he followed it up with a complete game (1 ER) against the CWS, 6 innings and 6 ER against the cubbies and then 8 innings of 1 run ball against the scuffling tigers. Let’s hope that up and down trend continues tonight. Just look at the competition. The Royals are 19-4 vs. CHW and DET; under .500 vs the rest of the league. Intra-division record better not be the second tiebreaker...
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Aug 6, 2024 11:15:58 GMT -5
Going to continue with the don't get greedy mindset, win one of the next two and leave KC closer in the standings to that 3rd WC spot than they entered. I have a feeling that AC is going to be managing with a Game 7 mindset in order to try to clinch the season series over KC. Hope we get good Bello tonight...
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Aug 6, 2024 11:21:43 GMT -5
James Paxton tonight: 41 curveballs 28 sinkers 18 four seamers 3 changeups (pretty sure these were all in the 6th inning) I wonder if this was a KC-specific strategy or if this is the result of getting him into the lab after his first start back. Wong was asked after the game if this was a strategy going in or did Paxton just have a great feel for the curve and Connor replied, "A little of both," with a look on his face like he knew he had said too much. Prior to this start, Paxton was >50% 4SFB.
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asm18
Veteran
Posts: 2,524
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Post by asm18 on Aug 6, 2024 12:47:07 GMT -5
James Paxton tonight: 41 curveballs 28 sinkers 18 four seamers 3 changeups (pretty sure these were all in the 6th inning) I wonder if this was a KC-specific strategy or if this is the result of getting him into the lab after his first start back. Wong was asked after the game if this was a strategy going in or did Paxton just have a great feel for the curve and Connor replied, "A little of both," with a look on his face like he knew he had said too much. Prior to this start, Paxton was >50% 4SFB. Paxton had a cutter/slider thing he used to good effect last year, which the Dodgers had him lower the usage of (and which was getting hit hard in LA). Do wonder if he loses feel for the curve at all if that makes a comeback
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