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8/5-8/7 Red Sox @ Royals Series Thread
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Post by strike23 on Aug 5, 2024 21:54:33 GMT -5
Singer xERA - ERA: 1.57 Lugo xERA - ERA: 1.28 Ragans xERA - ERA: -0.07 Ragans is the actual ace in Kansas City and it's not close. Singer and Lugo are also both RHP and Kutter has been getting nuked lately. Let's win the first two so game 3 can be gravy. So, I watched this game with this post in the back of my mind. xERA-ERA is obviously a skill, not just luck. Singer gave up 10 hits but only 2 runs. That doesn't just happen when it's pretty continuous. Baseball is about run prevention not expected run prevention. Ragans is at best the 3rd best pitcher on the staff and it's not close. Were we watching the same game? He got lucky on some extremely hard hit balls that ended up as outs
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Post by keninten on Aug 5, 2024 21:55:05 GMT -5
I like Youk. These guys are good, just a bit bland.
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Post by soxfansince67 on Aug 5, 2024 21:55:50 GMT -5
You’re all wrong on announcer-gate Merloni-Monaco full time is the only right answer Am I the only one who likes Youk?? I like Youk just fine. He, Middlebrooks, Merloni all work. Just Millar grates.
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Post by keninten on Aug 5, 2024 21:57:03 GMT -5
I`m gonna miss this game. Really fun.
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Post by soxfansince67 on Aug 5, 2024 21:57:12 GMT -5
Nice job by Booser. Just a fun game overall. HUGE win.
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Post by Guidas on Aug 5, 2024 21:57:12 GMT -5
Great Win!
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Post by soxfaninnj on Aug 5, 2024 21:57:26 GMT -5
Am I allowed to say Paxton looked good now?
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atzar
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Post by atzar on Aug 5, 2024 21:57:33 GMT -5
Very good important win.
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Aug 5, 2024 21:59:06 GMT -5
Hamilton throws out Renfroe, trade WON …..especially since the Red Sox traded Renfro to the Brewers….and that was how many teams ago for him ….I have lost count.
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Post by keninten on Aug 5, 2024 22:02:47 GMT -5
I may be the only one, but I like Millar. Not sure how it would play over 162, but I enjoy his energy on occasion. That`s the thing I have with him. He needs to shut up once in awhile. Over 162 games I think I would get sick of him. Was thinking today, I`m surprised Eck hasn`t been in the booth some. He seemed to enjoy being at Fenway. Or joining the booth on the west coast, especially Oakland.
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Post by sarasoxer on Aug 5, 2024 22:09:11 GMT -5
Gotta have it....
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Post by notstarboard on Aug 5, 2024 22:12:09 GMT -5
Singer xERA - ERA: 1.57 Lugo xERA - ERA: 1.28 Ragans xERA - ERA: -0.07 Ragans is the actual ace in Kansas City and it's not close. Singer and Lugo are also both RHP and Kutter has been getting nuked lately. Let's win the first two so game 3 can be gravy. So, I watched this game with this post in the back of my mind. xERA-ERA is obviously a skill, not just luck. Singer gave up 10 hits but only 2 runs (while he was in). That doesn't just happen when it's pretty continuous. Baseball is about run prevention not expected run prevention. Ragans is at best the 3rd best pitcher on the staff and it's not close. I disagree that it's a skill for the vast majority of people. Why do you think it is? For example, Singer's xERA was greater than his ERA in '22 and '24 and lower in '20 (pretty small sample, and not that much lower), '21, and '23. If he can't even outperform his xERA year after year, how is doing so this year somehow a skill?
ERA is a borderline useless stat, despite more directly tracking the outcome people care most about, because it is horribly dependent on park factors, defense, luck, scoring decisions, bullpen quality / managerial decisions, and other things entirely out of the pitcher's control. I don't care who has allowed earned runs at the lowest rate so far this year. I care who is more likely to allow fewer earned runs tomorrow. That is how you define which pitcher is actually better, and that guy for KC is Ragans. I don't care much if xERA, FIP, xFIP, SIERA, etc. is your stat of choice; Ragans basically sweeps them all.
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asm18
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Post by asm18 on Aug 5, 2024 22:22:26 GMT -5
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finaliz3d
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Post by finaliz3d on Aug 5, 2024 22:22:58 GMT -5
Look, I don't care how we beat Kansas City, just that we beat Kansas City. We're heading on a brutal stretch with Kansas City, Houston, Baltimore, Houston, Arizona. We need to be beating Kansas City and Houston especially, so 2 of 3 (ideally 3 of 3 obviously, but it's difficult to sweep), is necessary. Tonight was a great start, let's keep it going.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Aug 5, 2024 22:29:49 GMT -5
Look, I don't care how we beat Kansas City, just that we beat Kansas City. We're heading on a brutal stretch with Kansas City, Houston, Baltimore, Houston, Arizona. We need to be beating Kansas City and Houston especially, so 2 of 3 (ideally 3 of 3 obviously, but it's difficult to sweep), is necessary. Tonight was a great start, let's keep it going.
Important yes, necessary, no.
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asm18
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Post by asm18 on Aug 5, 2024 22:29:59 GMT -5
Kinda wonder how the trade deadline search for a starter pans out if the Red Sox don’t face James Paxton the day before he was DFA’d. Members of the org were reportedly surprised that it happened after he looked fairly solid against our (admittedly weak to LHP) lineup, compared to his results the rest of the year with LA. If they don’t see Paxton firsthand and like what they see, does he even end up here?
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Post by benogliviesbrother on Aug 5, 2024 22:36:48 GMT -5
You’re all wrong on announcer-gate Merloni-Monaco full time is the only right answer Am I the only one who likes Youk?? Nope. I prefer Youk to the others. Middlebrooks 2nd. I'm still bitter at Merloni for being a WEEI gasbag (Average AL my arse) all those years. Plus when he does the radio broadcast he never shuts up to let the game breathe. It's like he's getting paid by the word.
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Post by scottysmalls on Aug 5, 2024 22:37:43 GMT -5
So, I watched this game with this post in the back of my mind. xERA-ERA is obviously a skill, not just luck. Singer gave up 10 hits but only 2 runs (while he was in). That doesn't just happen when it's pretty continuous. Baseball is about run prevention not expected run prevention. Ragans is at best the 3rd best pitcher on the staff and it's not close. I disagree that it's a skill for the vast majority of people. Why do you think it is? For example, Singer's xERA was greater than his ERA in '22 and '24 and lower in '20 (pretty small sample, and not that much lower), '21, and '23. If he can't even outperform his xERA year after year, how is doing so this year somehow a skill?
ERA is a borderline useless stat, despite more directly tracking the outcome people care most about, because it is horribly dependent on park factors, defense, luck, scoring decisions, bullpen quality / managerial decisions, and other things entirely out of the pitcher's control. I don't care who has allowed earned runs at the lowest rate so far this year. I care who is more likely to allow fewer earned runs tomorrow. That is how you define which pitcher is actually better, and that guy for KC is Ragans. I don't care much if xERA, FIP, xFIP, SIERA, etc. is your stat of choice; Ragans basically sweeps them all.
No stat predicts future ERA very well but xERA is noticeably better at it than regular ERA. SIERA does the best job but still not a very good one
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Post by benogliviesbrother on Aug 5, 2024 22:39:01 GMT -5
Garcia has a much more lively arm than you’d expect for a journeyman 37 year old reliever Different arsenal but some Timlin vibe, who was older than 37 (81 games pitched in at age 40!). A very dependable guy when not overworked,
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Aug 5, 2024 22:39:34 GMT -5
Baseball game outcomes should be determined by expected runs not runs.
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Post by benogliviesbrother on Aug 5, 2024 22:40:50 GMT -5
I may be the only one, but I like Millar. Not sure how it would play over 162, but I enjoy his energy on occasion. By "energy" you mean like he's pulling from a flask every few pitches?
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 5, 2024 22:42:07 GMT -5
Big win tonight. Paxton and Yoshuda lead the way while Duran and Romy hit bombs.
While splitting or taking the next two games are ideal, even if they lost the final 2, it woukdnt be good, but a 3.5 game deficit isnt that tough to overcome.
What they couldn't afford was to get swept and theyve already avoided that scenario.
So far, so good.
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Post by keninten on Aug 5, 2024 22:42:18 GMT -5
Look, I don't care how we beat Kansas City, just that we beat Kansas City. We're heading on a brutal stretch with Kansas City, Houston, Baltimore, Houston, Arizona. We need to be beating Kansas City and Houston especially, so 2 of 3 (ideally 3 of 3 obviously, but it's difficult to sweep), is necessary. Tonight was a great start, let's keep it going.
Agree, If they don`t beat the other teams in the playoff hunt, they should be in the post season.
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Post by carmenfanzone on Aug 5, 2024 22:44:07 GMT -5
Win the next one and not only would the Sox win this series but also the season series against the Royals. That might have significant playoff implications, no?
I know it is a very, very short sample, but how could anyone think Westbrook was worth calling up over Sogard? If Sogard can keep this up, Grissom can stay in the minors for the rest of the season.
It would be nice if O'Neil could at least DH against the lefty on Wednesday.
Paxton isn't the young fireballer he once was, but he still seems to have a little left in the tank. Hoping he can help the rest of the way.
Rafaela made a great catch but somewhat overlooked was his big hit off the righty with 2 outs that gave Duran a chance for the go ahead double.
Kind of hope they send Martin for a short minor league rehab, even if only one game, before throwing him back in to the majors in a close race for the wild card. Don't want to lose a game because he wasn't ready.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Aug 5, 2024 22:44:29 GMT -5
By the way, I am pro inflating the KC staff ERAs over the entire series.
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