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Will the Red Sox add a front line starter for 2025?
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Post by alexcorahomevideo on Aug 20, 2024 5:49:06 GMT -5
I`d only trade for Miller thinking of him as a SP. Which is a completely different debate. Oakland will probably put him in the rotation next year to increase his value. So I don`t think he`ll be traded this winter unless it`s for an outrageous price. I don’t see how they get Miller without moving one of their top 5 prospects, however he has great stuff and the Sox might view him as a starter which he was last year.
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Post by alexcorahomevideo on Aug 20, 2024 5:56:04 GMT -5
Maybe I'm wrong but as a fan I 100 percent expect they at least spend as much in 2025 as they did in 2024. If that's the case that gives them 60-70M to spend. I could argue they don't need much if any offensive players other than an O'Neill replacement. I'd say they can probably get one of those for 10ish million. So that leaves 50-60M to spend on pitching and possibly extensions. Throw 35-40 of that at burnes or fried and then go get bullpen help with the rest. That's just my opinion/recipe for them to jump into the tier of true contender instead of fringe contender. You’d think that. Jansen is gone, Martin is gone, Sale’s money off the books, the Turner money etc…so that helps. It depends if they feel like the youngsters are better than what they can get on the open market. They need to do more, they need more talent on this team.
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Post by awalkinthepark on Aug 20, 2024 6:44:28 GMT -5
Maybe I'm wrong but as a fan I 100 percent expect they at least spend as much in 2025 as they did in 2024. If that's the case that gives them 60-70M to spend. I could argue they don't need much if any offensive players other than an O'Neill replacement. I'd say they can probably get one of those for 10ish million. So that leaves 50-60M to spend on pitching and possibly extensions. Throw 35-40 of that at burnes or fried and then go get bullpen help with the rest. That's just my opinion/recipe for them to jump into the tier of true contender instead of fringe contender. You’d think that. Jansen is gone, Martin is gone, Sale’s money off the books, the Turner money etc…so that helps. It depends if they feel like the youngsters are better than what they can get on the open market. They need to do more, they need more talent on this team. With all the money coming off the books but this years free agent class being pretty weak, I wonder if the Red Sox try to sign any of Mayer, Anthony or Teel to an extension this offseason. We saw it with Chourio and Colt Keith last year. I don't think it's likely, but if they are sold on those guys going forward and they can lock in a team friendly deal, I could see it happening.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 20, 2024 6:47:03 GMT -5
I`d only trade for Miller thinking of him as a SP. Which is a completely different debate. Oakland will probably put him in the rotation next year to increase his value. So I don`t think he`ll be traded this winter unless it`s for an outrageous price. I don’t see how they get Miller without moving one of their top 5 prospects, however he has great stuff and the Sox might view him as a starter which he was last year. It would cost them dearly and I woukdnt trade anh of them for a closer nor would I trade any of them for Millee as a converted starter. Just because Millee is a dominant closer doesnt mean Miller would make a dominant starter or necessarily even a good one. You'd be trading at least one of your core prospects to gamble that Miller could convert into being a great starter. No thanks to that risk.
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Aug 20, 2024 8:58:30 GMT -5
We should probably start a new thread. Will the Red Sox build a good bullpen in 2025? We have more talent coming back in the rotation than the pen.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Aug 20, 2024 21:04:29 GMT -5
We should probably start a new thread. Will the Red Sox build a good bullpen in 2025? We have more talent coming back in the rotation than the pen. It's a good idea for a thread but I don't know how much more talent there is coming back in the rotation. Go back and have a look at the opening post of this thread; basically, the #1 and #5 spots are huge question marks. There are a lot of existing candidates for #5 but I think it would be hard to argue that a genuine #1 is currently in the org (hence this thread).
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Post by jphelan on Aug 23, 2024 9:01:48 GMT -5
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Post by dirtywaterinla on Aug 23, 2024 13:05:23 GMT -5
It’s been chatted about in the trade forum, but I think Craig trades for Luis Castillo. Personally, I prefer him over Burnes or Fried as he only has 3 years left @ $25 mil/season (4th year vesting option) and has almost a nearly identical line the past few years as Burnes.
To me, I think it’s a foregone conclusion that Burnes signs with the Orioles for $32-35 mil/season for 6-8 years. That’s too rich for my blood personally. Fried on the other hand has some injury concerns.
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asm18
Veteran
Posts: 2,524
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Post by asm18 on Aug 23, 2024 13:30:12 GMT -5
It’s been chatted about in the trade forum, but I think Craig trades for Luis Castillo. Personally, I prefer him over Burnes or Fried as he only has 3 years left @ $25 mil/season (4th year vesting option) and has almost a nearly identical line the past few years as Burnes. To me, I think it’s a foregone conclusion that Burnes signs with the Orioles for $32-35 mil/season for 6-8 years. That’s too rich for my blood personally. Fried on the other hand has some injury concerns. Hmm. That would be kinda interesting. We talk about the Seattle guys all the time but Castillo is older and more expensive for a Seattle ownership group whose desire for spending isn’t super clear, and whose front office is a wild card when it comes to trades. That might be the guy THEY would prefer to move, compared to Gilbert/Kirby/etc
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Aug 23, 2024 14:46:51 GMT -5
Blake Snell will surely opt out. Can’t imaging he’ll get a crazy long contract. But, trading for Castillo and signing Snell would be a great off-season. Abreu + Kutter for Castillo?
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Post by dirtywaterinla on Aug 23, 2024 14:59:44 GMT -5
Blake Snell will surely opt out. Can’t imaging he’ll get a crazy long contract. But, trading for Castillo and signing Snell would be a great off-season. Abreu + Kutter for Castillo? Personally I think Abreu and Wong would get it done. Mariners are pretty set on their young SP staff.
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Post by ematz1423 on Aug 23, 2024 15:07:46 GMT -5
Blake Snell will surely opt out. Can’t imaging he’ll get a crazy long contract. But, trading for Castillo and signing Snell would be a great off-season. Abreu + Kutter for Castillo? Personally I think Abreu and Wong would get it done. Mariners are pretty set on their young SP staff. They're also set at C with Raleigh so don't see them having much interest in Wong.
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Post by wanderingdude on Aug 23, 2024 15:19:47 GMT -5
For what it’s worth Abreu and Castillo have the same exact FWAR this year. The Red Sox undoubtedly need to add a frontline starter but at first glance Abreu + feels like an overpay for Castillo.
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Post by ematz1423 on Aug 23, 2024 15:29:52 GMT -5
For what it’s worth Abreu and Castillo have the same exact FWAR this year. The Red Sox undoubtedly need to add a frontline starter but at first glance Abreu + feels like an overpay for Castillo. Honestly if anything with Castillo's contract and Abreu's cheap control I'd say the M's would need to throw something in or pay some of the contract to make it more fair, but that's probably getting too far down an actual trade idea rabbit hole.
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Post by 0ap0 on Aug 23, 2024 15:31:09 GMT -5
I feel we should be open to (reasonable) overpays to acquire quality pitching.
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Post by dirtywaterinla on Aug 23, 2024 15:46:02 GMT -5
I feel we should be open to (reasonable) overpays to acquire quality pitching. Precisely. With a backlog of young OF talent, we need to accept some degree of “overpays” here. Also, Abreu might have a higher fWAR this season, but he’s not an frontline SP with a stellar track record. At a certain point, you need to value what your most pressing needs over who’s got a higher WAR. In all, I think an Abreu for Castillo swap is an immensely fair trade for both sides.
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Post by wanderingdude on Aug 23, 2024 15:50:21 GMT -5
Yeah they’ll need to make a painful trade eventually. I just don’t like Castillo all that much, he’ll be 32 and his underlying metrics have declined pretty much every year since 2020 and he’s losing velocity. I would much rather try to go younger with more upside if we’re going the trade route, especially if the cost is that much.
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Post by dirtywaterinla on Aug 23, 2024 16:06:09 GMT -5
Yeah they’ll need to make a painful trade eventually. I just don’t like Castillo all that much, he’ll be 32 and his underlying metrics have declined pretty much every year since 2020 and he’s losing velocity. I would much rather try to go younger with more upside if we’re going the trade route, especially if the cost is that much. Who is that younger SP with upside though? Someone like Skubal, Kirby or Gilbert would cost you at least Anthony, Mayer and then some. Do you also want to give someone like Burnes 8 years/$300+ million that would take him to his age 38 season? Sure, Castillo has lost a tad off of his prime stuff, but he’s still very good. And it’s only 3 years left. This is ideal timing to allow SP in the minors like Sandlin, Valera, Perales, Monegro and Dobbins to thoroughly develop and hopefully become controllable pieces that makes a long term FA signing irrelevant.
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Post by tjb21 on Aug 23, 2024 19:03:36 GMT -5
Yeah they’ll need to make a painful trade eventually. I just don’t like Castillo all that much, he’ll be 32 and his underlying metrics have declined pretty much every year since 2020 and he’s losing velocity. I would much rather try to go younger with more upside if we’re going the trade route, especially if the cost is that much. Who is that younger SP with upside though? Someone like Skubal, Kirby or Gilbert would cost you at least Anthony, Mayer and then some. Do you also want to give someone like Burnes 8 years/$300+ million that would take him to his age 38 season? Sure, Castillo has lost a tad off of his prime stuff, but he’s still very good. And it’s only 3 years left. This is ideal timing to allow SP in the minors like Sandlin, Valera, Perales, Monegro and Dobbins to thoroughly develop and hopefully become controllable pieces that makes a long term FA signing irrelevant. I know this has been said before but where is the $300+ million number coming from? Doesn’t seem like he will get more than Nola, which is miles away from 300M.
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Post by finaliz3d on Aug 23, 2024 19:27:08 GMT -5
Who is that younger SP with upside though? Someone like Skubal, Kirby or Gilbert would cost you at least Anthony, Mayer and then some. Do you also want to give someone like Burnes 8 years/$300+ million that would take him to his age 38 season? Sure, Castillo has lost a tad off of his prime stuff, but he’s still very good. And it’s only 3 years left. This is ideal timing to allow SP in the minors like Sandlin, Valera, Perales, Monegro and Dobbins to thoroughly develop and hopefully become controllable pieces that makes a long term FA signing irrelevant. I know this has been said before but where is the $300+ million number coming from? Doesn’t seem like he will get more than Nola, which is miles away from 300M. I mean, idk how much Burnes will get but there are comparable situations. Gerrit Cole hadn't won a Cy Young and got 9y/324m at age 29. Burnes will be 30 when he signs so that's not far off. He's also won a Cy Young, and has finished top 10 in his last four seasons and probably finishes high again in the voting this year.
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Post by incandenza on Aug 23, 2024 20:31:38 GMT -5
I know this has been said before but where is the $300+ million number coming from? Doesn’t seem like he will get more than Nola, which is miles away from 300M. I mean, idk how much Burnes will get but there are comparable situations. Gerrit Cole hadn't won a Cy Young and got 9y/324m at age 29. Burnes will be 30 when he signs so that's not far off. He's also won a Cy Young, and has finished top 10 in his last four seasons and probably finishes high again in the voting this year. In the previous two seasone Cole had an ERA/FIP/xFIP of 2.68/2.67/2.75. He had just turned 29 and was trending up.
In the last two seasons Burnes has an ERA/FIP/xFIP of 3.34/3.71/3.71. He'll have just turned 30 and is trending down.
I think there really is about a $150 million difference between those two profiles. Not to mention that Cole was probably overpaid as it is; he's kind of falling apart in the 5th year of a 9 year deal amd so far he's given the Yankees only 16 WAR.
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Post by ematz1423 on Aug 23, 2024 20:34:16 GMT -5
I think burnes gets 7 years 210M or there abouts. I'd still probably be okay with them taking that plunge but also could completely understand why they might not. 300 is probably out of reach.
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Post by incandenza on Aug 23, 2024 20:44:13 GMT -5
Burnes since the all-star break: 6 GS, 5.75 ERA, 4.25 FIP, 4.25 xFIP, 8.0 K/9.
He's a good pitcher, but I do not think he is the same pitcher he was in 2021.
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Post by tjb21 on Aug 23, 2024 21:25:01 GMT -5
Burnes since the all-star break: 6 GS, 5.75 ERA, 4.25 FIP, 4.25 xFIP, 8.0 K/9. He's a good pitcher, but I do not think he is the same pitcher he was in 2021. Think I would prefer Snell at this point.
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Post by fooltook on Aug 25, 2024 8:21:03 GMT -5
A top line ace is what we clearly need. Houck becoming the #2 has put them back in contention but they need the true number 1. To me, it has to be a trade to acquire it ala the Sale deal. However they have so many avenues to do it with.
In AAA and MLB they have an abundance of OF and MIF players. I think the trade comes from there. Breslow needs to decide who he wants those people to be next year and for the next 3-5. Duran, Rafaela, Anthony, Abreu in the OF and Story, Rafaela, Campbell, Mayer in the MIF. Whichever players get them the most talent while also gives them the most talent. If a combo of these players plus some of other prospects can get them a Gilbert, Kirby, Crochet, I'd say they should jump all over it!
Ive racked my brain with who to keep and who to trade, if they can Id love to see them keep Anthony and Campbell. I wonder if they'd be willing to trade Duran/think this is his max value with Roman on the way.
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