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Will the Red Sox add a front line starter for 2025?
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 29, 2024 14:48:43 GMT -5
All true, but Houck and Crawford wouldnt cost a Big 4 prospect, so pass. And still, he hasn't pitched anywhere enough innings to qualify for even an ERA title. Just because Houck and Crawford are now doing it doesn't mean that Crochet will succeed. Hes a gamble either way, not a proven commodity. If they could get him for Abreu plus lesser prospects I'd do it, but not for any of the top 4. I do wonder if this undervalues Abreu relative to the top 4. Abreu is already an above average starter who's on pace for 3.5 fWAR. (Granted, he has the platoon issue, which limits roster flexibility because you need a RRH to pair with him.) But what are the chances that, say, Mayer or Teel becomes that valuable? They might, but I'd put it at maybe 50%. I'm not saying that I wouldn't trade Abreu for Crochet, just that when you account for the real possibility that Mayer and Teel won't be above average regulars, I put them in roughly the same bucket, value-wise. (Personally, I think that Anthony is in a different category because of his age advancement.) I think the odds are better than 50-50 for Mayer and likely better for Teel, based on him being a catcher. Mayer certainly has the pedigree, a guy drafted high up in the draft in a draft class that wasnt particularly rated highly. I don't think his performance has done anything to change the opinions of what made him a highly rated draft pick. He is a SS with a good hit tool and some pop when healthy and at this point, the only concerning knock against him is his ability to stay off the IL, which may or not prove predictive. I've seen no reason not to see Mayer as an above average regular who can have an star game or 2 in his future. I dont expect Teel to produce as big of offensive numbers as the other top 3, buy I can see him batting 8th or 9th hitting .270 with some pop, which is hardly a black hole and would be considered above average for a catcher. Given their positions on the defensive spectrum I think that makes them more likely to be valuable than Abreu. Also, SS has been a revolving door since Xander left, and as Story has failed to stay healthy. If Mayer stays healthy then he's likely to put an end to that revolving door. With Story, who knows what he is once he comes back, if he stays healthy? His bat has been in decline. We just dont know to what extent. His fielding looked good, but he is on his 30s now. SS is generally for younger guys. Beyond Mayer, the only guy I see dislodging him down the road is Arias and he is a long way away. For Teel, I think he will ultimately be an improvement on Wong who I think is having a career year. His Bb/K ratio will catch up to him at some point and Teel will be the better bet going forward. The only catcher in the system who could challenge him down the road in my opinion is Jonafran Garcia, but hes really young and coming off an injury. I think the Sox need to keep Mayer and Teel around, too, in addition to Campbell and Anthony. The Sox biggest asset is their core going forward, a core that contains Teel behind the plate, an infield of Casas, Campbell, Mayer, and Devers, and an outfield that contains Duran, Rafaela, and Anthony. I'm not sure if Grissom is part of this going forward or not, but he along with everybody else not mentioned in my opinion should be available in a trade, with the caveats that Montgomery, Arias, and Cespedes should be tough to pry away in a deal. Frankly I wouldnt trade Montgomery, and I'd have to think hard about the other 2. Still leaves the Sox with plenty of quality pieces to get a quality pitcher along with a ton of money to use. |
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dcb26
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Post by dcb26 on Aug 29, 2024 14:50:12 GMT -5
The Red Sox are in a weird situation where they have prioritized acquiring position players for years with the rationale being that you can always trade for pitching, but trading for pitching is so inherently risky that everyone becomes gun shy when push comes to shove. If you aren't willing to part with Casas, Duran, Anthony, Mayer, Teel or Campbell for anyone but Paul Skenes, prioritizing position players doesn't really work. This I agree with - but as a counterpoint, I'll say that because the first 'wave' of prospects is really just starting to arrive, things are still pretty uncertain: is this really who Duran is? Will Anthony really be a middle-of-the-order bat? Can Abreu learn to hit LHP? Will Teel be able to handle the defense and workload as an everyday catcher? Can Mayer stay healthy? Can Casas stay healthy and sane? Does Campbell's swing play in the majors? Will Rafaela grow as a hitter? on and on. Because of that, I hope that they wait a *little* longer before starting to unload position players - it would be a shame not to maximize the value and surplus of the young players they have, but it would be a relative disaster to get these decisions wrong and suddenly not have a future core to build around. By waiting a bit (I'm thinking next trade deadline or next offseason) most of these players shouldn't have lost significant value (maybe even gained some) and the team hopefully has an even better idea if there really is a surplus to be used in trades. |
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Post by itinerantherb on Aug 29, 2024 15:37:11 GMT -5
I do wonder if this undervalues Abreu relative to the top 4. Abreu is already an above average starter who's on pace for 3.5 fWAR. (Granted, he has the platoon issue, which limits roster flexibility because you need a RRH to pair with him.) But what are the chances that, say, Mayer or Teel becomes that valuable? They might, but I'd put it at maybe 50%. I'm not saying that I wouldn't trade Abreu for Crochet, just that when you account for the real possibility that Mayer and Teel won't be above average regulars, I put them in roughly the same bucket, value-wise. (Personally, I think that Anthony is in a different category because of his age advancement.) I think the odds are better than 50-50 for Mayer and likely better for Teel, based on him being a catcher. Mayer certainly has the pedigree, a guy drafted high up in the draft in a draft class that wasnt particularly rated highly. I don't think his performance has done anything to change the opinions of what made him a highly rated draft pick. He is a SS with a good hit tool and some pop when healthy and at this point, the only concerning knock against him is his ability to stay off the IL, which may or not prove predictive. I've seen no reason not to see Mayer as an above average regular who can have an star game or 2 in his future. I dont expect Teel to produce as big of offensive numbers as the other top 3, buy I can see him batting 8th or 9th hitting .270 with some pop, which is hardly a black hole and would be considered above average for a catcher. Given their positions on the defensive spectrum I think that makes them more likely to be valuable than Abreu. Also, SS has been a revolving door since Xander left, and as Story has failed to stay healthy. If Mayer stays healthy then he's likely to put an end to that revolving door. With Story, who knows what he is once he comes back, if he stays healthy? His bat has been in decline. We just dont know to what extent. His fielding looked good, but he is on his 30s now. SS is generally for younger guys. Beyond Mayer, the only guy I see dislodging him down the road is Arias and he is a long way away. For Teel, I think he will ultimately be an improvement on Wong who I think is having a career year. His Bb/K ratio will catch up to him at some point and Teel will be the better bet going forward. The only catcher in the system who could challenge him down the road in my opinion is Jonafran Garcia, but hes really young and coming off an injury. I think the Sox need to keep Mayer and Teel around, too, in addition to Campbell and Anthony. The Sox biggest asset is their core going forward, a core that contains Teel behind the plate, an infield of Casas, Campbell, Mayer, and Devers, and an outfield that contains Duran, Rafaela, and Anthony. I'm not sure if Grissom is part of this going forward or not, but he along with everybody else not mentioned in my opinion should be available in a trade, with the caveats that Montgomery, Arias, and Cespedes should be tough to pry away in a deal. Frankly I wouldnt trade Montgomery, and I'd have to think hard about the other 2. Still leaves the Sox with plenty of quality pieces to get a quality pitcher along with a ton of money to use. Yeah, all that's totally reasonable and I get it. I think I'm just not as high on Mayer as you, both because of the injury question and his mediocre performance against LHP (which is, admittedly, still a relatively small sample). I might also put more stock in the fact that Wilyer is a proven quantity whereas prospects, even really good ones, carry a lot of uncertainty and risk. I'm glad it's not my job to make judgements about who to trade and who to hang on to.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Aug 29, 2024 22:13:43 GMT -5
Being able to pitch more than 4 innings in a start past June would certainly be a good start. I don't see how he has really put to bed any of the questions on his ability to be an effective starter deep into a season when he hasn't really been an effective starter past June. Now some of that is the ChiSox rightfully babying him but the question still remains in my head. I am not saying that I would not trade for Crochet, I think in a trade that doesn't cost any of the top 4 prospects on the Sox it could be very worthwhile. That's just where I personally draw the line on him. Whether or not you should trade for him is a separate question, he'll cost a lot and is obviously risky. I do think that Crochet is kind of on an island right now with his combination of age, stuff and availability though, usually it's pick 2 out of those 3. I'm with you, @awalk, but some guys just aren't going to go there, which is fine. They could be right. I'd bet money though that if Crochet's sox were already red, with a first-rounder's path blazed through Greenville and Portland, complete with an excruciating wait during his injury absence and a triumphant debut as a SP; the same people would never consider trading him, not even for two big-4 equivalents. I often wonder what would've happened if they held onto Margot and Moncada et al. No Sale, no Kimbrel, no 2018 greatest team ever? Sometimes trading your top prospects is the best thing you can do with them. As it stands now, with huge holes in the rotation and bullpen and a surplus of young position players, especially MIFs, can you afford to keep them all? @dcb argues for patience but isn't the most important job of the GM to figure out which kids to deal and which to keep before it becomes obvious to the whole world? DD had some brilliant strokes in this regard and I'd love to see CB2 make a similar bold move or two and prove he's got what it takes. We're in a similar spot as we were in 2015. LFG! |
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 29, 2024 23:07:21 GMT -5
Whether or not you should trade for him is a separate question, he'll cost a lot and is obviously risky. I do think that Crochet is kind of on an island right now with his combination of age, stuff and availability though, usually it's pick 2 out of those 3. I'm with you, @awalk, but some guys just aren't going to go there, which is fine. They could be right. I'd bet money though that if Crochet's sox were already red, with a first-rounder's path blazed through Greenville and Portland, complete with an excruciating wait during his injury absence and a triumphant debut as a SP; the same people would never consider trading him, not even for two big-4 equivalents. I often wonder what would've happened if they held onto Margot and Moncada et al. No Sale, no Kimbrel, no 2018 greatest team ever? Sometimes trading your top prospects is the best thing you can do with them. As it stands now, with huge holes in the rotation and bullpen and a surplus of young position players, especially MIFs, can you afford to keep them all? @dcb argues for patience but isn't the most important job of the GM to figure out which kids to deal and which to keep before it becomes obvious to the whole world? DD had some brilliant strokes in this regard and I'd love to see CB2 make a similar bold move or two and prove he's got what it takes. We're in a similar spot as we were in 2015. LFG! I never really thought Margot was that great a prospect though. I'd take the top 4 of now over him then. And I didnt really think he'd dislodge JBJ or br that irreplaceable. I think they had a kid named Jimenez or whatever that seemed like a similar player to Margot. I did like Moncada but at the time they did have Devers coming up and as far as I knew Pedroia was the 2b through 2021, and there were some off the field things that were a little eye brow raising (nothing horrendous). While we're at it I never pined away for Jalen Beeks either, lost in the Eovaldi deal. Full disclosure, I did whine about losing Anderson Espinoza for Drew Pomeranz, but it turned out Espinoza was the rare guy even more often injured than Poneranz. It's not that you never trade top prospects, but not all top prospects are equal to each other. Margot < Anthony. And now adays trading top prospects for pitching is even more risky given how often pitchers are getting seriously injured and how little innings they pike up throughout the season- they dint impact the way the 200 plus innings guy used to. Keep in mind they also dropped 210 million on a guy who should have at least been co-MVP in the 2018 World Series. Without him the greatest Red Sox team might not have won the Series. |
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 29, 2024 23:11:12 GMT -5
I think the odds are better than 50-50 for Mayer and likely better for Teel, based on him being a catcher. Mayer certainly has the pedigree, a guy drafted high up in the draft in a draft class that wasnt particularly rated highly. I don't think his performance has done anything to change the opinions of what made him a highly rated draft pick. He is a SS with a good hit tool and some pop when healthy and at this point, the only concerning knock against him is his ability to stay off the IL, which may or not prove predictive. I've seen no reason not to see Mayer as an above average regular who can have an star game or 2 in his future. I dont expect Teel to produce as big of offensive numbers as the other top 3, buy I can see him batting 8th or 9th hitting .270 with some pop, which is hardly a black hole and would be considered above average for a catcher. Given their positions on the defensive spectrum I think that makes them more likely to be valuable than Abreu. Also, SS has been a revolving door since Xander left, and as Story has failed to stay healthy. If Mayer stays healthy then he's likely to put an end to that revolving door. With Story, who knows what he is once he comes back, if he stays healthy? His bat has been in decline. We just dont know to what extent. His fielding looked good, but he is on his 30s now. SS is generally for younger guys. Beyond Mayer, the only guy I see dislodging him down the road is Arias and he is a long way away. For Teel, I think he will ultimately be an improvement on Wong who I think is having a career year. His Bb/K ratio will catch up to him at some point and Teel will be the better bet going forward. The only catcher in the system who could challenge him down the road in my opinion is Jonafran Garcia, but hes really young and coming off an injury. I think the Sox need to keep Mayer and Teel around, too, in addition to Campbell and Anthony. The Sox biggest asset is their core going forward, a core that contains Teel behind the plate, an infield of Casas, Campbell, Mayer, and Devers, and an outfield that contains Duran, Rafaela, and Anthony. I'm not sure if Grissom is part of this going forward or not, but he along with everybody else not mentioned in my opinion should be available in a trade, with the caveats that Montgomery, Arias, and Cespedes should be tough to pry away in a deal. Frankly I wouldnt trade Montgomery, and I'd have to think hard about the other 2. Still leaves the Sox with plenty of quality pieces to get a quality pitcher along with a ton of money to use. Yeah, all that's totally reasonable and I get it. I think I'm just not as high on Mayer as you, both because of the injury question and his mediocre performance against LHP (which is, admittedly, still a relatively small sample). I might also put more stock in the fact that Wilyer is a proven quantity whereas prospects, even really good ones, carry a lot of uncertainty and risk. I'm glad it's not my job to make judgements about who to trade and who to hang on to.
I liked that Mayer went out and was hitting over .300 in Portland. I dont think a lot of guys in that league were hitting .300 that would have qualified for the batting title. I took from that that his hit tool is pretty good, good enough that he could be a .280 hitter in the majors, which is quite good these days. Add some pop and that he plays a key defensive position, that's a reason why I like what I see from Mayer. |
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Post by ematz1423 on Aug 30, 2024 6:06:49 GMT -5
I'm starting to think the rotation really isn't as dire need as I once did. I'm pretty convinced houck, Bello and Crawford make up 3/5 of a viable rotation for years to come and cheap. 2025 they have Giolito coming back, maybe his rebuilt elbow gets him back to what he was a few years ago. They have Criswell for 6th starter long man role and depth at AAA in fitts, priester, dobbins etc. I could make the case that go out and sign burnes, fried, or maybe even eovaldi or Flaherty and that's a pretty solid rotation. Frankly the bullpen is what worries me more than the rotation for 2025.
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Post by kingstephanos on Aug 30, 2024 9:00:00 GMT -5
I'm starting to think the rotation really isn't as dire need as I once did. I'm pretty convinced houck, Bello and Crawford make up 3/5 of a viable rotation for years to come and cheap. 2025 they have Giolito coming back, maybe his rebuilt elbow gets him back to what he was a few years ago. They have Criswell for 6th starter long man role and depth at AAA in fitts, priester, dobbins etc. I could make the case that go out and sign burnes, fried, or maybe even eovaldi or Flaherty and that's a pretty solid rotation. Frankly the bullpen is what worries me more than the rotation for 2025. ematz, with xFIP you're not far off - as the BoSox are currently ranked 8th (3.95), which is surprising to me. Their FIP seems about right at 4.19 (ranked 18th) so far. What's been a problem for the starters is their HR/FB (13.5) which is at the bottom of the standings above only COL, CLE, and MIA. A follow-up thought would be, say, adding a very good ground ball pitcher - however our infield defense can be shaky at best. Particularly when Story isn't at SS, which is far too often these days. Fundamentally, having Casas on one side and Devers on the other engenders no good will to a prototypical sinker baller, for example. And imo, getting back into playoff contention starts with the pitching staff (offense production, and outfield defense) being consistently good in order to compensate for the infield gaffes and lower than average OAAs (UZRs, DRSs et al.). |
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Post by incandenza on Aug 30, 2024 9:14:35 GMT -5
I'm starting to think the rotation really isn't as dire need as I once did. I'm pretty convinced houck, Bello and Crawford make up 3/5 of a viable rotation for years to come and cheap. 2025 they have Giolito coming back, maybe his rebuilt elbow gets him back to what he was a few years ago. They have Criswell for 6th starter long man role and depth at AAA in fitts, priester, dobbins etc. I could make the case that go out and sign burnes, fried, or maybe even eovaldi or Flaherty and that's a pretty solid rotation. Frankly the bullpen is what worries me more than the rotation for 2025. ematz, with xFIP you're not far off - as the BoSox are currently ranked 8th (3.95), which is surprising to me. Their FIP seems about right at 4.19 (ranked 18th) so far. What's been a problem for the starters is their HR/FB (13.5) which is at the bottom of the standings above only COL, CLE, and MIA. A follow-up thought would be, say, adding a very good ground ball pitcher - however our infield defense can be shaky at best. Particularly when Story isn't at SS, which is far too often these days. Fundamentally, having Casas on one side and Devers on the other engenders no good will to a prototypical sinker baller, for example. And imo, getting back into playoff contention starts with the pitching staff (offense production, and outfield defense) being consistently good in order to compensate for the infield gaffes and lower than average OAAs (UZRs, DRSs et al.). Story at SS and Hamilton at 2B, or Mayer at SS and Story at 2B, or Mayer at SS and Hamilton at 2B, would make the infield defense pretty solid. And Casas has been much improved at 1B this year according to OAA and my eyeballs (but not DRS).
Campbell may figure in here too but the omerta on any reports about his defense makes it hard to say.
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Post by awalkinthepark on Aug 30, 2024 9:54:29 GMT -5
The Red Sox are in a weird situation where they have prioritized acquiring position players for years with the rationale being that you can always trade for pitching, but trading for pitching is so inherently risky that everyone becomes gun shy when push comes to shove. If you aren't willing to part with Casas, Duran, Anthony, Mayer, Teel or Campbell for anyone but Paul Skenes, prioritizing position players doesn't really work. This I agree with - but as a counterpoint, I'll say that because the first 'wave' of prospects is really just starting to arrive, things are still pretty uncertain: is this really who Duran is? Will Anthony really be a middle-of-the-order bat? Can Abreu learn to hit LHP? Will Teel be able to handle the defense and workload as an everyday catcher? Can Mayer stay healthy? Can Casas stay healthy and sane? Does Campbell's swing play in the majors? Will Rafaela grow as a hitter? on and on. Because of that, I hope that they wait a *little* longer before starting to unload position players - it would be a shame not to maximize the value and surplus of the young players they have, but it would be a relative disaster to get these decisions wrong and suddenly not have a future core to build around. By waiting a bit (I'm thinking next trade deadline or next offseason) most of these players shouldn't have lost significant value (maybe even gained some) and the team hopefully has an even better idea if there really is a surplus to be used in trades. And my counterpoint to this is that there are really high costs to being patient. While the Sox wait to see if Mayer/Casas can stay healthy, if Rafaela will be a good hitter, if Anthony/Teel/Campbell will become impact players...they've wasted an 8 WAR season from Duran (assuming they don't make the playoffs). Similar to how they wasted a 6 WAR season from Bogaerts and 5 WAR season from Devers in 2022. I'm playing devil's advocate here, but how would the last 3 years have played out if they had signed Freddie Freeman prior to 2022 and traded Casas for something?
It is sort of similar to the poker adage that most of the time you should either be raising or folding, not merely calling. You need to pick your lane and aggressively pursue it. My only major criticism of the Red Sox over the last 5 or so years is that they've been too passive, they are too comfortable operating in the middle of the pack. Even though the actual acquisitions the Sox made haven't worked out, I'm glad Breslow decided to clearly push some chips in at the deadline this year.
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dcb26
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Post by dcb26 on Aug 30, 2024 12:38:54 GMT -5
8 or 9 months ago I posted something along the lines of "it's great to talk about the 'window opening' but sometimes you have to go and open the window yourself" so I do agree with the overall point. I just think it's worth more to make the right calls with their young players than any trade they could realistically make this offseason (and the same or similar wouldn't be available the following off-season.)
Put another way, I'm confident this can be a top team just by keeping the right prospects and making a strategic FA signing or two. I'm not confident this can be a top team in the future by dealing their prospects right now.
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Post by ematz1423 on Aug 30, 2024 12:47:13 GMT -5
8 or 9 months ago I posted something along the lines of "it's great to talk about the 'window opening' but sometimes you have to go and open the window yourself" so I do agree with the overall point. I just think it's worth more to make the right calls with their young players than any trade they could realistically make this offseason (and the same or similar wouldn't be available the following off-season.) Put another way, I'm confident this can be a top team just by keeping the right prospects and making a strategic FA signing or two. I'm not confident this can be a top team in the future by dealing their prospects right now. Keeping the right prospects is what makes or breaks GMs IMO. DD seemed to have quite an ability to trade the "right" prospects at the right time. I do get the feeling we'll be seeing at least one major deal this offseason that's going to hurt us prospect watchers and if so hopefully Breslow is also able to pick the "right" prospects to hang on to and to trade from. I don't particularly want to see any of the big 4 traded but looking at it objectively chances are at least one of them does not pan out. Don't ask me to guess which one(s). |
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Post by dcb26 on Aug 30, 2024 17:05:11 GMT -5
8 or 9 months ago I posted something along the lines of "it's great to talk about the 'window opening' but sometimes you have to go and open the window yourself" so I do agree with the overall point. I just think it's worth more to make the right calls with their young players than any trade they could realistically make this offseason (and the same or similar wouldn't be available the following off-season.) Put another way, I'm confident this can be a top team just by keeping the right prospects and making a strategic FA signing or two. I'm not confident this can be a top team in the future by dealing their prospects right now. Keeping the right prospects is what makes or breaks GMs IMO. DD seemed to have quite an ability to trade the "right" prospects at the right time. I do get the feeling we'll be seeing at least one major deal this offseason that's going to hurt us prospect watchers and if so hopefully Breslow is also able to pick the "right" prospects to hang on to and to trade from. I don't particularly want to see any of the big 4 traded but looking at it objectively chances are at least one of them does not pan out. Don't ask me to guess which one(s). Yeah, I agree a trade is likely. I think it's mistake to deal a top prospect/young player right now just because there's a likely abundance of young players on the way. For the mythical "right" deal, sure, bus as you have said in other places, there's not too many "right" players to deal the top prospects for. I'm pretty sure you aren't saying this, but I've seen some variation of "just trade the prospects who are going to be busts" in too many places to be OK with the groupthink on this one. My only point in this discussion is that, while keeping some of them too long is not ideal, it's a lot better than making the wrong decisions about who to keep and who to trade, and I don't think another 6-12 months is "too long" anyway. |
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Post by ematz1423 on Aug 30, 2024 18:32:43 GMT -5
Keeping the right prospects is what makes or breaks GMs IMO. DD seemed to have quite an ability to trade the "right" prospects at the right time. I do get the feeling we'll be seeing at least one major deal this offseason that's going to hurt us prospect watchers and if so hopefully Breslow is also able to pick the "right" prospects to hang on to and to trade from. I don't particularly want to see any of the big 4 traded but looking at it objectively chances are at least one of them does not pan out. Don't ask me to guess which one(s). Yeah, I agree a trade is likely. I think it's mistake to deal a top prospect/young player right now just because there's a likely abundance of young players on the way. For the mythical "right" deal, sure, bus as you have said in other places, there's not too many "right" players to deal the top prospects for. I'm pretty sure you aren't saying this, but I've seen some variation of "just trade the prospects who are going to be busts" in too many places to be OK with the groupthink on this one. My only point in this discussion is that, while keeping some of them too long is not ideal, it's a lot better than making the wrong decisions about who to keep and who to trade, and I don't think another 6-12 months is "too long" anyway. Yes I'm not really on board with dealing any of em I just fear it's going to happen. Also yes the thought that oh let's pick the one out who will bust and deal him while good in theory if there was a baseball mind who had a 100 percent hit rate on trades then there wouldn't be a dollar amount too high to pay said GM. |
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asm18
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Post by asm18 on Sept 1, 2024 7:02:18 GMT -5
If the goal is a frontline starter, how many options on this free agent list are appetizing before it starts to get underwhelming? Tried to break it down by tiers: Bonafide Aces:Burnes Max Fried Snell* Going to the Dodgers:Roki Sasaki Midrotation-ish Starters:Jack Flaherty Eovaldi Kikuchi Sean Manaea Luis Severino Michael Wacha Nick Pivetta Andrew Heaney Elder Statesmen:
Verlander Kershaw Scherzer Charlie Morton High Name ID Reclamation Projects:Shane Bieber Jordan Montgomery Walker Buehler Frankie Montas #5 Starters/Depth/Retiring?Kyle Hendricks Wade Miley Michael Lorenzen James Paxton Alex Cobb Patrick Corbin Anthony DeSclafani Domingo Germán José Quintana Ross Stripling Alex Wood Spencer Turnbull “ A man so evil that Hell itself spat him back out”Martín Perez www.mlb.com/news/baseball-s-next-free-agent-classes?partnerID=mlbapp-iOS_article-share |
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 1, 2024 7:24:26 GMT -5
If the goal is a frontline starter, how many options on this free agent list are appetizing before it starts to get underwhelming? Tried to break it down by tiers: Bonafide Aces:Burnes Max Fried Snell* Going to the Dodgers:Roki Sasaki Midrotation-ish Starters:Jack Flaherty Eovaldi Kikuchi Sean Manaea Luis Severino Michael Wacha Nick Pivetta Andrew Heaney Elder Statesmen:
Verlander Kershaw Scherzer Charlie Morton High Name ID Reclamation Projects:Shane Bieber Jordan Montgomery Walker Buehler Frankie Montas #5 Starters/Depth/Retiring?Kyle Hendricks Wade Miley Michael Lorenzen James Paxton Alex Cobb Patrick Corbin Anthony DeSclafani Domingo Germán José Quintana Ross Stripling Alex Wood Spencer Turnbull “ A man so evil that Hell itself spat him back out”Martín Perez www.mlb.com/news/baseball-s-next-free-agent-classes?partnerID=mlbapp-iOS_article-shareI'd probably place Eovaldi and perhaps Flaherty higher up, not aces, but #2 starter type, rather then a 3 or 4 type starter. But yes, slim pickings. Then contrast that with the number of pitchers they could trade for without putting a dent into their system and that number gets smaller than what's out there in the free agent market. Even if you only count 3 - 5 starters that you classify as somebody you can impact the rotation, then I dont see why the Sox cant be one of the 3 - 5 teams that are most aggressive with their wallets to go and get one of those 3 - 5 pitchers. It's not like they're destitute. I dont see Skubal being moved if the Tigers are interested in winning over the next few years, which they should be given there is no dominant team in the division. As much as DiPoto loves to deal, I dont see Kirby or Gilbert going anywhere. Maybe Castillo or one of their younger kids get moved but it's always easier to find bats on the free agent market, so why trade away valuable pitching if they dont need to? But other than Crochet who will definitely be moved where else would this young pitching that is worth losing any of the big 4 for? I think it's just as rare as the free agent market. I'd rather they pay lots of money than lose one of their top 4 or Montgomery. |
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Post by incandenza on Sept 1, 2024 8:32:38 GMT -5
If the goal is a frontline starter, how many options on this free agent list are appetizing before it starts to get underwhelming? Tried to break it down by tiers: Bonafide Aces:Burnes Max Fried Snell* Going to the Dodgers:Roki Sasaki Midrotation-ish Starters:Jack Flaherty Eovaldi Kikuchi Sean Manaea Luis Severino Michael Wacha Nick Pivetta Andrew Heaney Elder Statesmen:
Verlander Kershaw Scherzer Charlie Morton High Name ID Reclamation Projects:Shane Bieber Jordan Montgomery Walker Buehler Frankie Montas #5 Starters/Depth/Retiring?Kyle Hendricks Wade Miley Michael Lorenzen James Paxton Alex Cobb Patrick Corbin Anthony DeSclafani Domingo Germán José Quintana Ross Stripling Alex Wood Spencer Turnbull “ A man so evil that Hell itself spat him back out”Martín Perez www.mlb.com/news/baseball-s-next-free-agent-classes?partnerID=mlbapp-iOS_article-shareAge in 2025 and in-season updated ZiPS ERA/FIP projection (as a proxy for "never mind their reputation, how good are they now"):
Burnes (30): 3.75/3.43
Fried (31): 3.46/3.46 Snell (32): 3.37/3.37 Flaherty (29): 4.37/4.07 Eovaldi (35): 4.00/3.96 Kikuchi (33): 3.41/3.94 Manaea (33): 4.43/4.00 Severino (31): 4.86/4.32 Wacha (33): 4.17/4.20 Pivetta (32): 4.59/4.30 Heaney (34): 4.46/4.33 Verlander (42): 4.04/4.38 Scherzer (40): 3.92/4.02 Morton (41): 4.33/4.35 Buehler (30): 4.01/4.05 Montas (32): 4.36/4.24
Now something depressing about each: - All of Burnes' core stats have been trending down for the last few years - Fried is going to be expensive but he's already on the wrong side of 30 - Snell is going to have yet another sub-130 IP season, as he has in all but two seasons of his career - Flaherty has been conspicuously better in Detroit's capacious ballpark than in any other place he's played in the last 5 years - Eovaldi is old and injury-prone, not a great combination - Kikuchi kind of stunk until 2023; not sure how sustainable his success is - Manaea's old and just has kind of meh vibes - Severino used to be a Yankee - Wacha is way overperforming his xERA, which probably has to do with the defense he plays in front of, and he is old - Pivetta is what he is and will likely never be what it seems like he could be but isn't - Heaney, Scherzer, Morton, Verlander: old, older, olderer, olderest - Buehler has basically two healthy seasons under his belt - Montas has basically nothing in his stat line that isn't below-average this year
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asm18
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Post by asm18 on Sept 1, 2024 10:06:50 GMT -5
Age in 2025 and in-season updated ZiPS ERA/FIP projection (as a proxy for "never mind their reputation, how good are they now"): Burnes (30): 3.75/3.43
Fried (31): 3.46/3.46 Snell (32): 3.37/3.37 Flaherty (29): 4.37/4.07 Eovaldi (35): 4.00/3.96 Kikuchi (33): 3.41/3.94 Manaea (33): 4.43/4.00 Severino (31): 4.86/4.32 Wacha (33): 4.17/4.20 Pivetta (32): 4.59/4.30 Heaney (34): 4.46/4.33 Verlander (42): 4.04/4.38 Scherzer (40): 3.92/4.02 Morton (41): 4.33/4.35 Buehler (30): 4.01/4.05 Montas (32): 4.36/4.24 If it was just a matter of throwing money at the best guy and not worrying about whether it was a smart investment, it’s those top 3 dudes (Burnes, Fried, Snell) easy. If we’re talking efficiently spending dollars and getting great return on your investment… yeah no clue. Not sure who the Seth Lugo/Imanaga is supposed to be in this class. |
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Post by trotnixon7 on Sept 1, 2024 10:18:19 GMT -5
Age in 2025 and in-season updated ZiPS ERA/FIP projection (as a proxy for "never mind their reputation, how good are they now"): Burnes (30): 3.75/3.43
Fried (31): 3.46/3.46 Snell (32): 3.37/3.37 Flaherty (29): 4.37/4.07 Eovaldi (35): 4.00/3.96 Kikuchi (33): 3.41/3.94 Manaea (33): 4.43/4.00 Severino (31): 4.86/4.32 Wacha (33): 4.17/4.20 Pivetta (32): 4.59/4.30 Heaney (34): 4.46/4.33 Verlander (42): 4.04/4.38 Scherzer (40): 3.92/4.02 Morton (41): 4.33/4.35 Buehler (30): 4.01/4.05 Montas (32): 4.36/4.24 If it was just a matter of throwing money at the best guy and not worrying about whether it was a smart investment, it’s those top 3 dudes (Burnes, Fried, Snell) easy. If we’re talking efficiently spending dollars and getting great return on your investment… yeah no clue. Not sure who the Seth Lugo/Imanaga is supposed to be in this class. Obviously it's always a balance between best player vs best value but Boston should be leaning more toward best players these days..obviously that doesn't mean you do anything out of this world crazy either but.. 3/5 of the rotation is making little, a big chunk of the lineup is making little etc. I'd like to see some actual aggression. |
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asm18
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Post by asm18 on Sept 1, 2024 10:31:00 GMT -5
If it was just a matter of throwing money at the best guy and not worrying about whether it was a smart investment, it’s those top 3 dudes (Burnes, Fried, Snell) easy. If we’re talking efficiently spending dollars and getting great return on your investment… yeah no clue. Not sure who the Seth Lugo/Imanaga is supposed to be in this class. Obviously it's always a balance between best player vs best value but Boston should be leaning more toward best players these days..obviously that doesn't mean you do anything out of this world crazy either but.. 3/5 of the rotation is making little, a big chunk of the lineup is making little etc. I'd like to see some actual aggression. 100% agree with you - I’d be more than fine seeing them YOLO with Burnes or Snell. Just not sure if the guy writing the checks feels that way 😅 |
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Post by kwodes on Sept 1, 2024 10:38:09 GMT -5
If the goal is a frontline starter, how many options on this free agent list are appetizing before it starts to get underwhelming? Tried to break it down by tiers: Bonafide Aces:Burnes Max Fried Snell* Going to the Dodgers:Roki Sasaki Midrotation-ish Starters:Jack Flaherty Eovaldi Kikuchi Sean Manaea Luis Severino Michael Wacha Nick Pivetta Andrew Heaney Elder Statesmen:
Verlander Kershaw Scherzer Charlie Morton High Name ID Reclamation Projects:Shane Bieber Jordan Montgomery Walker Buehler Frankie Montas #5 Starters/Depth/Retiring?Kyle Hendricks Wade Miley Michael Lorenzen James Paxton Alex Cobb Patrick Corbin Anthony DeSclafani Domingo Germán José Quintana Ross Stripling Alex Wood Spencer Turnbull “ A man so evil that Hell itself spat him back out”Martín Perez www.mlb.com/news/baseball-s-next-free-agent-classes?partnerID=mlbapp-iOS_article-shareI'd probably place Eovaldi and perhaps Flaherty higher up, not aces, but #2 starter type, rather then a 3 or 4 type starter. But yes, slim pickings. Then contrast that with the number of pitchers they could trade for without putting a dent into their system and that number gets smaller than what's out there in the free agent market. Even if you only count 3 - 5 starters that you classify as somebody you can impact the rotation, then I dont see why the Sox cant be one of the 3 - 5 teams that are most aggressive with their wallets to go and get one of those 3 - 5 pitchers. It's not like they're destitute. I dont see Skubal being moved if the Tigers are interested in winning over the next few years, which they should be given there is no dominant team in the division. As much as DiPoto loves to deal, I dont see Kirby or Gilbert going anywhere. Maybe Castillo or one of their younger kids get moved but it's always easier to find bats on the free agent market, so why trade away valuable pitching if they dont need to? But other than Crochet who will definitely be moved where else would this young pitching that is worth losing any of the big 4 for? I think it's just as rare as the free agent market. I'd rather they pay lots of money than lose one of their top 4 or Montgomery. Agreed. List is pretty spot on. Only thing I'd change is put Flaherty, eovaldi, and fried in their own tier between aces and mid-rotation guys, but that's picking nits. To me, it seems weird that everyone is picking Fried to get a huge contract while no one is picking Snell to get a big deal. Haven't looked at the numbers, but it feels like Fried and Snell have the same durability issues while Fried is more of a "pitch to contact" guy and Snell misses more bats, but walks more guys. |
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 1, 2024 11:19:20 GMT -5
If the goal is a frontline starter, how many options on this free agent list are appetizing before it starts to get underwhelming? Tried to break it down by tiers: Bonafide Aces:Burnes Max Fried Snell* Going to the Dodgers:Roki Sasaki Midrotation-ish Starters:Jack Flaherty Eovaldi Kikuchi Sean Manaea Luis Severino Michael Wacha Nick Pivetta Andrew Heaney Elder Statesmen:
Verlander Kershaw Scherzer Charlie Morton High Name ID Reclamation Projects:Shane Bieber Jordan Montgomery Walker Buehler Frankie Montas #5 Starters/Depth/Retiring?Kyle Hendricks Wade Miley Michael Lorenzen James Paxton Alex Cobb Patrick Corbin Anthony DeSclafani Domingo Germán José Quintana Ross Stripling Alex Wood Spencer Turnbull “ A man so evil that Hell itself spat him back out”Martín Perez www.mlb.com/news/baseball-s-next-free-agent-classes?partnerID=mlbapp-iOS_article-shareAge in 2025 and in-season updated ZiPS ERA/FIP projection (as a proxy for "never mind their reputation, how good are they now"): Burnes (30): 3.75/3.43
Fried (31): 3.46/3.46 Snell (32): 3.37/3.37 Flaherty (29): 4.37/4.07 Eovaldi (35): 4.00/3.96 Kikuchi (33): 3.41/3.94 Manaea (33): 4.43/4.00 Severino (31): 4.86/4.32 Wacha (33): 4.17/4.20 Pivetta (32): 4.59/4.30 Heaney (34): 4.46/4.33 Verlander (42): 4.04/4.38 Scherzer (40): 3.92/4.02 Morton (41): 4.33/4.35 Buehler (30): 4.01/4.05 Montas (32): 4.36/4.24 Now something depressing about each: - All of Burnes' core stats have been trending down for the last few years - Fried is going to be expensive but he's already on the wrong side of 30 - Snell is going to have yet another sub-130 IP season, as he has in all but two seasons of his career - Flaherty has been conspicuously better in Detroit's capacious ballpark than in any other place he's played in the last 5 years - Eovaldi is old and injury-prone, not a great combination - Kikuchi kind of stunk until 2023; not sure how sustainable his success is - Manaea's old and just has kind of meh vibes - Severino used to be a Yankee - Wacha is way overperforming his xERA, which probably has to do with the defense he plays in front of, and he is old - Pivetta is what he is and will likely never be what it seems like he could be but isn't - Heaney, Scherzer, Morton, Verlander: old, older, olderer, olderest - Buehler has basically two healthy seasons under his belt - Montas has basically nothing in his stat line that isn't below-average this year
Sure, you can poke holes at the fee agent class but I'm sure it wouldnt be too tough to poke holes at the guys who might he traded list as well. It comes down to I'd rather they make a financial decision that comes back to bite them in the ass than a personnel decision they regret for a long time. While I get that too many bad financial decisions impact future personnel decisions most big market teams can carry some inefficiencies. The Red Sox have money at their disposal and having a cheap young core makes that possible. |
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TearsIn04
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Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
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Post by TearsIn04 on Sept 1, 2024 11:20:15 GMT -5
If the goal is a frontline starter, how many options on this free agent list are appetizing before it starts to get underwhelming? Tried to break it down by tiers: Bonafide Aces:Burnes Max Fried Snell* Going to the Dodgers:Roki Sasaki Midrotation-ish Starters:Jack Flaherty Eovaldi Kikuchi Sean Manaea Luis Severino Michael Wacha Nick Pivetta Andrew Heaney Elder Statesmen:
Verlander Kershaw Scherzer Charlie Morton High Name ID Reclamation Projects:Shane Bieber Jordan Montgomery Walker Buehler Frankie Montas #5 Starters/Depth/Retiring?Kyle Hendricks Wade Miley Michael Lorenzen James Paxton Alex Cobb Patrick Corbin Anthony DeSclafani Domingo Germán José Quintana Ross Stripling Alex Wood Spencer Turnbull “ A man so evil that Hell itself spat him back out”Martín Perez www.mlb.com/news/baseball-s-next-free-agent-classes?partnerID=mlbapp-iOS_article-shareAge in 2025 and in-season updated ZiPS ERA/FIP projection (as a proxy for "never mind their reputation, how good are they now"):
Burnes (30): 3.75/3.43
Fried (31): 3.46/3.46 Snell (32): 3.37/3.37 Flaherty (29): 4.37/4.07 Eovaldi (35): 4.00/3.96 Kikuchi (33): 3.41/3.94 Manaea (33): 4.43/4.00 Severino (31): 4.86/4.32 Wacha (33): 4.17/4.20 Pivetta (32): 4.59/4.30 Heaney (34): 4.46/4.33 Verlander (42): 4.04/4.38 Scherzer (40): 3.92/4.02 Morton (41): 4.33/4.35 Buehler (30): 4.01/4.05 Montas (32): 4.36/4.24
Now something depressing about each: - All of Burnes' core stats have been trending down for the last few years - Fried is going to be expensive but he's already on the wrong side of 30 - Snell is going to have yet another sub-130 IP season, as he has in all but two seasons of his career - Flaherty has been conspicuously better in Detroit's capacious ballpark than in any other place he's played in the last 5 years - Eovaldi is old and injury-prone, not a great combination - Kikuchi kind of stunk until 2023; not sure how sustainable his success is - Manaea's old and just has kind of meh vibes - Severino used to be a Yankee - Wacha is way overperforming his xERA, which probably has to do with the defense he plays in front of, and he is old - Pivetta is what he is and will likely never be what it seems like he could be but isn't - Heaney, Scherzer, Morton, Verlander: old, older, olderer, olderest - Buehler has basically two healthy seasons under his belt - Montas has basically nothing in his stat line that isn't below-average this year
The Red Sox have a SP who's markedly better than anyone on that list and trending in the right direction. By 2024 ERA-plus and B-Ref WAR: Tanner Houck - 139, 3.4 Corbin Burnes - 118, 2.2 Max Fried - 120, 2.6 Blake Snell - 109, 1.3 Every FA market has guys who get left behind for one reason or another. Last year the market said Mongomery and Snell just weren't as good as they and their agent thought and they paid a big price. If one of Burnes, Fried or Snell have a disappointing response for whatever reason this coming off-season, the RS should be interested. If the bidding gets out of hand, I'd rather not see them make a mistake that they're going to regret for a seemingly endless stretch of years. Been there, done that with too many FAs, including the Story and Yoshida contracts now. I'd rather add a solid innings guy who can give them better than average pitching on a short-term deal (Giolito was the right idea last off-season), get improvement out of Kutter and Bello (lot of reasons to be excited about Bello next year) and make major upgrades to the BP. |
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Sept 1, 2024 18:35:42 GMT -5
The guy who intrigues me on the FA market is Severino, if he's fully healthy (and he's already made 26 starts this year).
Plus, he's been talking smack about his former team...
The guy who I wish people would stop obsessing over is Eovaldi. It's not just that he's old and injury-prone, it's that he's just not coming back. He's less than one year removed from leading one of his home-state teams to its first championship ever. DeGrom will be back next season, along with most of the rest of the championship team and he's going to want to try for one last hurrah with them. The guys he won with in Boston are all gone. It hurts when your ex finds someone new and is really happy with them and starting a new family and everything but you just have to let them go and move on.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Sept 2, 2024 5:52:59 GMT -5
I saw a stat on Corbin Burns. This is his 4th consecutive year of declining K% and is likely to be a career low. His August is a career low for monthly. He's still obviously pitching well but that's scary considering how much he's likely to get.
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