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8/9-8/11 Red Sox vs. Astros Series Thread
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Post by oldfaithful2019 on Aug 11, 2024 12:50:08 GMT -5
Normally a 8 pitch 1st inning would feel really great. Normally...
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Post by congusgambler33 on Aug 11, 2024 12:51:43 GMT -5
This club is snakebit for sure and i have no words how many injuries this team has suffered. I really wonder how much they want to win to rest Devers today too. I think it is overdone.
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Post by incandenza on Aug 11, 2024 12:52:24 GMT -5
Don't worry, it's all part of the hero's journey netflix narrative. Dark night of the soul and all that...
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briam
Veteran
Posts: 1,180
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Post by briam on Aug 11, 2024 12:52:35 GMT -5
Death, taxes, and Sox pitching imploding after the trade deadline.
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Post by scottysmalls on Aug 11, 2024 12:52:56 GMT -5
Re: the debate of whether this is like 2023 or not If we have more than just a few planned bullpen games in 2025, I’ll be pissed off. I don’t know how many more simulations we need in order to figure out that running a paper thin starting pitching and repeatedly flirting with the league leader in bullpen innings has a cumulative effect that makes it really hard to stay competitive for several consecutive months. Also, did anyone else notice how in the offseason, starting pitchers like Flaherty were referred to as uninspired non impact moves, but by the deadline, that one in particular is the top prize available? Flaherty is having a career year. If he produced like years past, he would have been an uninspired, non-impact move. I just don’t see how people can still be arguing that not signing pitching depth was actually smart, rather than just indicative of a reduced budget. Fine disregard Flaherty, what about Manaea, or Imanaga, or Lugo? Or from another angle, what about the new pitching apparatus, they couldn’t unlock what Detroit did in Flaherty? |
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Post by notstarboard on Aug 11, 2024 12:55:01 GMT -5
He could easily take Hamilton's spot on the roster. Hamilton sits against LHP anyway, and Romy, Sogard, and Rafaela can all play SS. I think the team concluded Hamilton was more likely to be productive going forward. The argument isn’t how they value him- they almost dealt him for a reliever at the deadline. The argument is should he be hitting 2nd today on 8/11 against a RHP. His history against RHP and his numbers since June say that’s completely valid. No, that very much is the argument. Hitting him second against RHP implies they should think he is the best (or second best, since Devers is sitting) hitter on the team against RHP. If that is who the team thinks he is, he should be on the big league squad and playing every single day against RHP. He can play a passable 2B, so they have a defensive spot for him. You don't force a bat like that off your roster for a player like Sogard, or so a guy like Hamilton can play SS a couple times a week. The only logical conclusion is that he doesn't have a bat like that. That also implies he shouldn't be hitting second. And again, hot streaks are fickle. Him raking back against RHP back in June says very little about how he'll do in August, especially when he was putrid in a larger sample in April and May. |
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Post by congusgambler33 on Aug 11, 2024 12:56:01 GMT -5
Hey their back on the strikeout train again. great to see.
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Post by prospectjunkie21 on Aug 11, 2024 12:56:11 GMT -5
Offense picking up where they left off striking out at insane rates yesterday.
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cdj
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Posts: 15,645 
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Post by cdj on Aug 11, 2024 12:59:27 GMT -5
The argument isn’t how they value him- they almost dealt him for a reliever at the deadline. The argument is should he be hitting 2nd today on 8/11 against a RHP. His history against RHP and his numbers since June say that’s completely valid. No, that very much is the argument. Hitting him second against RHP implies they should think he is the best (or second best, since Devers is sitting) hitter on the team against RHP. If that is who the team thinks he is, he should be on the big league squad and playing every single day against RHP. He can play a passable 2B, so they have a defensive spot for him. You don't force a bat like that off your roster for a player like Sogard, or so a guy like Hamilton can play SS a couple times a week. The only logical conclusion is that he doesn't have a bat like that. That also implies he shouldn't be hitting second. And again, hot streaks are fickle. Him raking back against RHP back in June says very little about how he'll do in August, especially when he was putrid in a larger sample in April and May. Lmao whatever man, I get it you want to knock Cora. You’re just not correct in doing so here. It is what it is. FWIW he had awful batted ball luck earlier this year. And it’s not just a small sample “since June” where he’s hit RHP, it’s his entire major and minor league career (he’s hitting .264/.311/.471 against them for his career in the bigs, and that’s with him adjusting to big league pitching and having bad luck earlier this year) There isn’t a lot of value in a player who plays awful defense up the middle and is a strict platoon bat. That’s why he’s not on the roster when people are healthy. That does not mean he shouldn’t bat up in the order against RHP when it’s his only skill and he’s on the 26 man |
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Post by cheers on Aug 11, 2024 13:00:27 GMT -5
Just tuning in. Are the picking up pieces of Paxton off the field?? Just see he was lifted in the 1st.
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Post by notstarboard on Aug 11, 2024 13:00:56 GMT -5
Flaherty is having a career year. If he produced like years past, he would have been an uninspired, non-impact move. I just don’t see how people can still be arguing that not signing pitching depth was actually smart, rather than just indicative of a reduced budget. Fine disregard Flaherty, what about Manaea, or Imanaga, or Lugo? Or from another angle, what about the new pitching apparatus, they couldn’t unlock what Detroit did in Flaherty? They are $5.8 million under the tax line right now, so while budget was certainly a factor, it's also not a budget reduction[\b]. Signing any of these guys would have meant not making other moves and/or going over the tax line this year.
I like the idea of adding SP depth in a vacuum, but not so much when it's mediocre vets who have to stay on the 26-man. Either sign guys who are rotation locks and build depth by pushing guys down the depth chart, or sign Criswell types who have options and can build depth on the back end.
I hope next year they're shopping at the top of the market in the offseason. |
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Post by incandenza on Aug 11, 2024 13:03:13 GMT -5
The argument isn’t how they value him- they almost dealt him for a reliever at the deadline. The argument is should he be hitting 2nd today on 8/11 against a RHP. His history against RHP and his numbers since June say that’s completely valid. No, that very much is the argument. Hitting him second against RHP implies they should think he is the best (or second best, since Devers is sitting) hitter on the team against RHP. If that is who the team thinks he is, he should be on the big league squad and playing every single day against RHP. He can play a passable 2B, so they have a defensive spot for him. You don't force a bat like that off your roster for a player like Sogard, or so a guy like Hamilton can play SS a couple times a week. The only logical conclusion is that he doesn't have a bat like that. That also implies he shouldn't be hitting second. And again, hot streaks are fickle. Him raking back against RHP back in June says very little about how he'll do in August, especially when he was putrid in a larger sample in April and May. What's your ideal lineup with the guys who are playing today? Should Valdez be batting 7th or something? Then Wong, Smith, and Sogard are batting 4/5/6. That doesn't strike me as optimal.
On the other hand if you just think Valdez should hit 3 or 4 rather than 2 this just seems like such a marginal question of optimization that it could easily be overwhelmed by factors like keeping other guys in a position in which they're most familiar/comfortable, etc.
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cdj
Veteran
Posts: 15,645
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Post by cdj on Aug 11, 2024 13:03:27 GMT -5
Ceddanne
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Post by pappyman99 on Aug 11, 2024 13:05:34 GMT -5
Paxton getting injured should surprise no one
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Post by notstarboard on Aug 11, 2024 13:06:44 GMT -5
No, that very much is the argument. Hitting him second against RHP implies they should think he is the best (or second best, since Devers is sitting) hitter on the team against RHP. If that is who the team thinks he is, he should be on the big league squad and playing every single day against RHP. He can play a passable 2B, so they have a defensive spot for him. You don't force a bat like that off your roster for a player like Sogard, or so a guy like Hamilton can play SS a couple times a week. The only logical conclusion is that he doesn't have a bat like that. That also implies he shouldn't be hitting second. And again, hot streaks are fickle. Him raking back against RHP back in June says very little about how he'll do in August, especially when he was putrid in a larger sample in April and May. Lmao whatever man, I get it you want to knock Cora. You’re just not correct in doing so here. It is what it is. FWIW he had awful batted ball luck earlier this year. And it’s not just a small sample “since June” where he’s hit RHP, it’s his entire major and minor league career (he’s hitting .264/.311/.471 against them for his career in the bigs, and that’s with him adjusting to big league pitching and having bad luck earlier this year) I don't want to knock Cora; it would be a lot more fun to support him. But, character issues aside, he makes mistakes like this daily and does not remotely deserve the benefit of the doubt anymore. .264/.311/.471 is not the best hitter on this team against LHP, especially when the two-hole guy should err on the side of high OBP. I am not saying Valdez is a bad hitter against RHP. He isn't. I am saying he should not be hitting second on the basis of one hot month two months ago. Yoshida vs RHP this year: .310/.376/.444 Wilyer vs RHP this year: .284/.352/.543 |
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cdj
Veteran
Posts: 15,645
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Post by cdj on Aug 11, 2024 13:08:31 GMT -5
Lmao whatever man, I get it you want to knock Cora. You’re just not correct in doing so here. It is what it is. FWIW he had awful batted ball luck earlier this year. And it’s not just a small sample “since June” where he’s hit RHP, it’s his entire major and minor league career (he’s hitting .264/.311/.471 against them for his career in the bigs, and that’s with him adjusting to big league pitching and having bad luck earlier this year) I don't want to knock Cora; it would be a lot more fun to support him. But, character issues aside, he makes mistakes like this daily and does not remotely deserve the benefit of the doubt anymore. .264/.311/.471 is not the best hitter on this team against LHP, especially when the two-hole guy should err on the side of high OBP. I am not saying Valdez is a bad hitter against RHP. He isn't. I am saying he should not be hitting second on the basis of one hot month two months ago. Yoshida vs RHP this year: .310/.376/.444 Wilyer vs RHP this year: .284/.352/.543 Ok so you’re mad he batted him 2nd instead of 3rd (when he statistically has been their 2nd best hitter since June)? Sure whatever man. Completely unserious thing to be writing paragraphs about in a vacuum when Devers is out of the lineup but go on |
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Post by incandenza on Aug 11, 2024 13:10:34 GMT -5
If I were going to complain about a batting order issue it would be Wong regularly hitting 3 or 5. His numbers this season have always been partially a BABIP illusion and he's got a 75 wRC+ since July 1st with a 30% K rate. Basically he's fully turned back into the kind of hitter he was last season.
ADD: And unrelatedly he's only 6 for 12 on stolen bases. He should probably stop trying to do that!
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Post by notstarboard on Aug 11, 2024 13:10:53 GMT -5
No, that very much is the argument. Hitting him second against RHP implies they should think he is the best (or second best, since Devers is sitting) hitter on the team against RHP. If that is who the team thinks he is, he should be on the big league squad and playing every single day against RHP. He can play a passable 2B, so they have a defensive spot for him. You don't force a bat like that off your roster for a player like Sogard, or so a guy like Hamilton can play SS a couple times a week. The only logical conclusion is that he doesn't have a bat like that. That also implies he shouldn't be hitting second. And again, hot streaks are fickle. Him raking back against RHP back in June says very little about how he'll do in August, especially when he was putrid in a larger sample in April and May. What's your ideal lineup with the guys who are playing today? Should Valdez be batting 7th or something? Then Wong, Smith, and Sogard are batting 4/5/6. That doesn't strike me as optimal.
On the other hand if you just think Valdez should hit 3 or 4 rather than 2 this just seems like such a marginal question of optimization that it could easily be overwhelmed by factors like keeping other guys in a position in which they're most familiar/comfortable, etc.
Duran Yoshida Wong Wilyer Valdez Sogard Smith Rafaela Hamilton |
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cdj
Veteran
Posts: 15,645
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Post by cdj on Aug 11, 2024 13:14:16 GMT -5
If I were going to complain about a batting order issue it would be Wong regularly hitting 3 or 5. His numbers this season have always been partially a BABIP illusion and he's got a 75 wRC+ since July 1st with a 30% K rate. Basically he's fully turned back into the kind of hitter he was last season.
ADD: And unrelatedly he's only 6 for 12 on stolen bases. He should probably stop trying to do that!
Weird thing is he’s a tick faster this year than last year (79th percentile in sprint speed) |
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Post by incandenza on Aug 11, 2024 13:14:21 GMT -5
What's your ideal lineup with the guys who are playing today? Should Valdez be batting 7th or something? Then Wong, Smith, and Sogard are batting 4/5/6. That doesn't strike me as optimal.
On the other hand if you just think Valdez should hit 3 or 4 rather than 2 this just seems like such a marginal question of optimization that it could easily be overwhelmed by factors like keeping other guys in a position in which they're most familiar/comfortable, etc.
Duran Yoshida Wong Wilyer Valdez Sogard Smith Rafaela Hamilton Well see there's Wong at #3, which I would consider a much more questionable choice than Valdez at #2. And again the difference between Valdez at 2 vs. 5 seems trivial. |
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Post by notstarboard on Aug 11, 2024 13:17:32 GMT -5
Duran Yoshida Wong Wilyer Valdez Sogard Smith Rafaela Hamilton Well see there's Wong at #3, which I would consider a much more questionable choice than Valdez at #2. And again the difference between Valdez at 2 vs. 5 seems trivial. I agree that Wong shouldn't be hitting that high in an ideal world, but if we treat the 3 hole as the 5th most important spot in the lineup, I don't hate him there today. It also breaks up the wall of LHH and makes it more optional to PH. He's been about league average against RHP on the year and has flipped splits for his career. Could be worse with TON and Devers out. I wouldn't necessarily call it a trivial difference given the OBP differences between Yoshida, Wilyer, and Valdez. It's not a massive handicap, but it's not nothing, and it's just free production. I can't see Valdez being more comfortable at #2, if it's a comfort thing. If anything #5 seems like it takes some pressure off. |
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cdj
Veteran
Posts: 15,645
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Post by cdj on Aug 11, 2024 13:19:28 GMT -5
Nice outing from Sims after being thrust into the fire unexpectedly
Bernardino vs Alvarez seems like it’s gonna end poorly for us
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Post by tjb21 on Aug 11, 2024 13:21:30 GMT -5
Nightmare scenario. Potential situations like this is why I graded the Sox trading deadline a C. I wanted 2 starters. They got 2 starters. |
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cdj
Veteran
Posts: 15,645
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Post by cdj on Aug 11, 2024 13:22:45 GMT -5
I don’t hate hitting him I guess!
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Post by incandenza on Aug 11, 2024 13:23:04 GMT -5
Well see there's Wong at #3, which I would consider a much more questionable choice than Valdez at #2. And again the difference between Valdez at 2 vs. 5 seems trivial. I agree that Wong shouldn't be hitting that high in an ideal world, but if we treat the 3 hole as the 5th most important spot in the lineup, I don't hate him there today. It also breaks up the wall of LHH and makes it more optional to PH. He's been about league average against RHP on the year and has flipped splits for his career. Could be worse with TON and Devers out. I wouldn't necessarily call it a trivial difference given the OBP differences between Yoshida, Wilyer, and Valdez. It's not a massive handicap, but it's not nothing, and it's just free production. I can't see Valdez being more comfortable at #2, if it's a comfort thing. If anything #5 seems like it takes some pressure off. If we need to break up the lefties at the top of the order with a righty (not sure we do with Jansen, Refsnyder, and Romy on the bench) then I'd rather do it with Rafaela, who has been a much better hitter for a while now and also adds some power.
On the other hand if they want to keep Rafaela at the bottom of the order for comfort reasons then that is totally fine but I am also not going to get worked up about whether Valdez is 2, 3, 4, or 5.
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