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8/12-8/14 Red Sox vs. Rangers Series Thread
TearsIn04
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Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,940 
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Post by TearsIn04 on Aug 13, 2024 15:59:56 GMT -5
Jansen is the simplest way to spend money and get more wins on the position player side I think. Other than Juan Soto, we'd just be adding a 1.5-2.5 WAR INF/OF to the big pile of 1.5-2.5 WAR INF/OFs we already have.
I don't really know what he'll fetch, but I see Jim Bowden has ranked him the 45th best free agent, one spot below Justin Turner. Well that's a thought. Though I think this logic becomes pretty uncertain for any year past 2025 and/but I'd be surprised if Jansen can't get at least a 3 year deal. It's a close call between Wong and Jansen. Jansen has definitely been better - 2.7 FG WAR/450 PAs to .7 for Wong. Zips projects Jansen for 2 WAR in 2025, compared with .7 for Wong (which seems a tad low, considering that Wong is already at .9 this year with a quarter of the season to go.) For me the facts that favor keeping Wong are: 1. He's less costly for a team with a lot of holes and that will have to spend big on other positions in the next few years. 2. Teel is coming like a train. I can't imagine that he's not here late next season, 2026 at the latest. Wong would make a nice second C, especially since he's opposite-handed from Teel. 3. Wong's athleticism could make him useful as a utility guy. In fact, I wouldn't mind if they eventually went with Teel as the starter, signed another low-priced RH C and moved Wong around the diamond. This team is going to need viable RH bats on the bench as the lineup tilts even more LH with Teel, MM and Roman Anthony. |
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Post by alexcorahomevideo on Aug 13, 2024 16:03:30 GMT -5
Got to go out and bring Rich Hill back. I can’t see a way around that if you want another arm who is able to pitch in September.
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Post by incandenza on Aug 13, 2024 16:08:06 GMT -5
Got to go out and bring Rich Hill back. I can’t see a way around that if you want another arm who is able to pitch in September. I don't see Hill as an upgrade on any of Houck, Crawford, Pivetta, Bello, or Criswell, so what's the point? |
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Post by alexcorahomevideo on Aug 13, 2024 16:19:29 GMT -5
Got to go out and bring Rich Hill back. I can’t see a way around that if you want another arm who is able to pitch in September. I don't see Hill as an upgrade on any of Houck, Crawford, Pivetta, Bello, or Criswell, so what's the point? I disagree on Criswell. Hill replaces Paxton. He’s another arm that can eat innings in September. |
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Post by soxfansince67 on Aug 13, 2024 16:24:08 GMT -5
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Post by entrylevelhitman on Aug 13, 2024 16:26:01 GMT -5
Got to go out and bring Rich Hill back. I can’t see a way around that if you want another arm who is able to pitch in September. I don't see Hill as an upgrade on any of Houck, Crawford, Pivetta, Bello, or Criswell, so what's the point? Maybe not, but I think the better question is: is Hill an upgrade over Penrod, Gambrell, Alexander, Uwasawa, or Keller? I admittedly chuckle every year when fans clamor for "fresh arms" around the trade deadline, but those "fresh arms" are usually already weary since they threw for another team. Pretty much every pitcher out there is worn out by this point of the season. Hill's situation is unique in that he's quite probably the only pitcher out there who is an actual, low-mileage fresh arm, at least where 2024 is concerned. Now, whether he's able to put a uniform on and throw a ball past MLB players or not, I have no idea. There are eight weeks left in the season and we're already skipping guys to give them extra rest, so if Hill can give you a handful of starts down the stretch, sure, why not? The 40-man roster is at 39 right now anyway. I guess my point is, I see the appeal. |
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Post by strike23 on Aug 13, 2024 16:28:26 GMT -5
Well that's a thought. Though I think this logic becomes pretty uncertain for any year past 2025 and/but I'd be surprised if Jansen can't get at least a 3 year deal. It's a close call between Wong and Jansen. Jansen has definitely been better - 2.7 FG WAR/450 PAs to .7 for Wong. Zips projects Jansen for 2 WAR in 2025, compared with .7 for Wong (which seems a tad low, considering that Wong is already at .9 this year with a quarter of the season to go.) For me the facts that favor keeping Wong are: 1. He's less costly for a team with a lot of holes and that will have to spend big on other positions in the next few years. 2. Teel is coming like a train. I can't imagine that he's not here late next season, 2026 at the latest. Wong would make a nice second C, especially since he's opposite-handed from Teel. 3. Wong's athleticism could make him useful as a utility guy. In fact, I wouldn't mind if they eventually went with Teel as the starter, signed another low-priced RH C and moved Wong around the diamond. This team is going to need viable RH bats on the bench as the lineup tilts even more LH with Teel, MM and Roman Anthony. For 2025 "both" is an option, can't imagine Jansen's AAV is too high so we might be able to get him for 2 years at more per year, he's such a great fit for Fenway that he's worth more to us than to others. Make Teel force his way up. |
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Post by stevedillard on Aug 13, 2024 16:33:57 GMT -5
As geeze. Kutter pitching today? I have to go move my car from the Fenway garage
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Post by seamus on Aug 13, 2024 16:34:11 GMT -5
Back of the napkin math would suggest that 89 wins is probably what it takes to win the Wild Card. Maybe less, maybe more, but that's the number I'd have circled as the goal. To get there, they need to go 27-18 the rest of the way. That's the rate they played at in June, so it's certainly feasible.
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Post by finaliz3d on Aug 13, 2024 16:46:33 GMT -5
Back of the napkin math would suggest that 89 wins is probably what it takes to win the Wild Card. Maybe less, maybe more, but that's the number I'd have circled as the goal. To get there, they need to go 27-18 the rest of the way. That's the rate they played at in June, so it's certainly feasible. 27-18, let's see. 6 of 8 against the Blue Jays, 3 of 3 ideally against the White Sox, 2 of 3 against the Twins, 1 of 2 remaining against the Rangers, 2 of 3 against Detroit. 3 of 7 against Baltimore? 2 of 4 atleast against the Yankees, 4 of 6 against the Rays, and 2 of 3 against the Astros, take atleast 3 of the 6 games against the Mets/Diamondbacks and that would get you 28. I think that's perfectly feasible if you're a contender. |
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Post by incandenza on Aug 13, 2024 17:02:11 GMT -5
I don't see Hill as an upgrade on any of Houck, Crawford, Pivetta, Bello, or Criswell, so what's the point? Maybe not, but I think the better question is: is Hill an upgrade over Penrod, Gambrell, Alexander, Uwasawa, or Keller? Unclear? He was pretty bad last year as a 43 year old and he's lived an additional 2% of his life without throwing a pitch in a major league game. The projections like Penrod a lot better at least.
In any case why do they need any of these guys? They have 5 starters, they just added two relievers at the deadline, and Slaten should be back before too long.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Aug 13, 2024 17:09:41 GMT -5
Thank you, Doctor. I feel much better now.
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Post by dirtywaterinla on Aug 13, 2024 17:13:07 GMT -5
Maybe not, but I think the better question is: is Hill an upgrade over Penrod, Gambrell, Alexander, Uwasawa, or Keller? Unclear? He was pretty bad last year as a 43 year old and he's lived an additional 2% of his life without throwing a pitch in a major league game. The projections like Penrod a lot better at least.
In any case why do they need any of these guys? They have 5 starters, they just added two relievers at the deadline, and Slaten should be back before too long.
I think it’s abundantly clear that the team is gearing up Penrod to be a lefty reliever this season. Hill makes the most sense right now as I’d greatly prefer Criswell to be the long man. |
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Post by incandenza on Aug 13, 2024 17:13:24 GMT -5
Back of the napkin math would suggest that 89 wins is probably what it takes to win the Wild Card. Maybe less, maybe more, but that's the number I'd have circled as the goal. To get there, they need to go 27-18 the rest of the way. That's the rate they played at in June, so it's certainly feasible. Definitely possible, but here's an approximation of what they'd have to do the rest of the way to get to 89 wins: vs Texas 2-1 (one down) @ Baltimore 2-2 @ Houston 2-1 vs Arizona 2-1 vs Toronto 3-1 @ Detroit 2-1 @ Mets 2-1 vs White Sox 3-0 vs Baltimore 2-1 @ Yankees 1-2 @ Tampa 2-1 vs Minnesota 1-2 @ Toronto 2-1 vs Tampa 2-1 This has them going 27-16. I think there's an extra game @nyy and another vs TOR (suspended game) which they could lose to finish 27-18. |
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Post by incandenza on Aug 13, 2024 17:18:22 GMT -5
The only reason I can imagine to prefer Rich Hill to Criswell is that we sort of remember Hill fondly from a couple years ago. Is there a better reason than that? Again: 44 years old, was bad last year, hasn't even pitched this year.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Aug 13, 2024 17:19:26 GMT -5
Are the Sox considering Hill ? We did the Paxton replay and look where it got us. I am not in favor of a Hill revival.
We got younger guys who are less probable to break down, although I am not up to speed as to who they are. You fellas know more about that than I.
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asm18
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Posts: 2,524
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Post by asm18 on Aug 13, 2024 17:27:31 GMT -5
Fwiw Fangraphs has the projected win totals for WC teams roughly as: Yankees - 94 Twins - 89 Royals - 86 Mariners - 86 Red Sox - 84.5 24-21 the rest of the way would get you to 86 wins with tiebreakers over Royals & Mariners in this scenario. I think that’s a realistic scenario, but it’s still a narrow path. Hopefully we can win these next two while Minnesota and KC are duking it out to make it a much more neck-and-neck race www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds/fg/wc |
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asm18
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Posts: 2,524
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Post by asm18 on Aug 13, 2024 17:37:08 GMT -5
Oh no! Maybe Aaron Boone can play 3B?
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Post by incandenza on Aug 13, 2024 17:40:53 GMT -5
Fwiw Fangraphs has the projected win totals for WC teams roughly as: Yankees - 94 Twins - 89 Royals - 86 Mariners - 86 Red Sox - 84.5 24-21 the rest of the way would get you to 86 wins with tiebreakers over Royals & Mariners in this scenario. I think that’s a realistic scenario, but it’s still a narrow path. Hopefully we can win these next two while Minnesota and KC are duking it out to make it a much more neck-and-neck race www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds/fg/wcRealistically, though, either the Royals or the Mariners are likely to overshoot their win projection by a little bit (though there's also a chance that the Twins (or Guardians or Astros) undershoot significantly).
It is handy to have those tiebreakers over the Royals and Mariners.
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 11,497
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Post by nomar on Aug 13, 2024 17:41:47 GMT -5
Oh no! Maybe Aaron Boone can play 3B? ESPN showed a “highlight” of him scoring from 2B on a single last night like that is some rare feat. I’m sick of the media shoving him down my throat, and this will be a vacation from that. |
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Post by threeifbaerga on Aug 13, 2024 18:03:08 GMT -5
Oh no! Maybe Aaron Boone can play 3B? ESPN showed a “highlight” of him scoring from 2B on a single last night like that is some rare feat. I’m sick of the media shoving him down my throat, and this will be a vacation from that. Your first problem is going to ESPN for anything other than marketing. |
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keninten
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Post by keninten on Aug 13, 2024 18:10:23 GMT -5
Back of the napkin math would suggest that 89 wins is probably what it takes to win the Wild Card. Maybe less, maybe more, but that's the number I'd have circled as the goal. To get there, they need to go 27-18 the rest of the way. That's the rate they played at in June, so it's certainly feasible. Definitely possible, but here's an approximation of what they'd have to do the rest of the way to get to 89 wins: vs Texas 2-1 (one down) @ Baltimore 2-2 @ Houston 2-1 vs Arizona 2-1 vs Toronto 3-1 @ Detroit 2-1 @ Mets 2-1 vs White Sox 3-0 vs Baltimore 2-1 @ Yankees 2-2 @ Tampa 2-1 vs Minnesota 1-2 @ Toronto 2-1 vs Tampa 2-1 2-2 against the stankees? You should be banned. You have to predict sweeps against them. And then you take a win away. Bailiff whack his pee-pee. |
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keninten
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Post by keninten on Aug 13, 2024 18:16:20 GMT -5
9 Pitches
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Post by notstarboard on Aug 13, 2024 18:22:22 GMT -5
Such a great call to send Masa! Love watching him chug lol. Hip pocket to eye socket baby.
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Post by taiwansox on Aug 13, 2024 18:22:40 GMT -5
Damn Masa is so slow lol
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