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Post by julyanmorley on Aug 13, 2024 10:05:21 GMT -5
Brad Keller is now a free agent
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Post by incandenza on Aug 13, 2024 10:17:01 GMT -5
Wong in August: 2.4% BB, 38.1% K, 56 wRC+ Looks like he’s hitting the Wong wall again on top of getting lucky for most of the year relative to expected results. I still like Wong and think he’s a fine backup to Teel long term, but I think Jansen is better and the Stephen Scott fan in me also wants to see Gasper play. I’d be giving Wong plenty of rest right now. Seems like he's been guessing (poorly) a lot lately - lots of called strike 3's on fastballs in the zone and swinging strike 3's on sliders a foot low and outside.
It does seem hard to justify Wong getting more PAs than Jansen at this point. In fact I'd call it pretty weird that they traded three prospects for Jansen only for them to give him 22 PAs in 14 games (in which he has hit .368/.455/.684 while Wong has gone .264/.278/.377).
At the very least I wouldn't be batting Wong 5th or higher. I'm not usually one to care about batting order but it feels like he's been a real rally killer lately.
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Post by julyanmorley on Aug 13, 2024 10:32:26 GMT -5
Connor Wong has 1.3 career WAR he kinda stinks and Danny Jansen is probably like the 10th best catcher in baseball. My dream offseason has heading into next season with a Jansen/Teel duo and with a new #19 ranked prospect that we got from the Cubs.
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Post by julyanmorley on Aug 13, 2024 10:35:13 GMT -5
ZiPS which does player specific park adjustments has Jansen hitting .255/.340/.469 for us. There's no way we let him walk when he's not gonna be that expensive is there?
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Aug 13, 2024 10:38:08 GMT -5
The Sox should certainly have money to retain Jansen if he is a C that they want, he does seem a good fit. That being said, would Jansen want to sign in Boston? With Teel on the come up I would think he might be more inclined to sign somewhere that he would be the primary C. That probably doesn't happen in Boston with Teel.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Aug 13, 2024 10:38:36 GMT -5
Connor Wong has 1.3 career WAR he kinda stinks and Danny Jansen is probably like the 10th best catcher in baseball. My dream offseason has heading into next season with a Jansen/Teel duo and with a new #19 ranked prospect that we got from the Cubs. Yeah I’d easily prefer Jansen as well, but 1) Wong is cheaper and 2) we don’t know what he could fetch in a trade. I think a young controllable reliever would be a nice get, but like you said if we can get a decent prospect that would be solid too. Keeping Wong would make payroll management easier, so that’s what I would expect them to do, but it’ll be interesting.
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Post by incandenza on Aug 13, 2024 11:21:57 GMT -5
ZiPS which does player specific park adjustments has Jansen hitting .255/.340/.469 for us. There's no way we let him walk when he's not gonna be that expensive is there? Is Jansen gonna be that inexpensive though? I honestly have no idea. Christian Vazquez got 3/30. James McCann got 4/40 when he had 3.4 career WAR as a 30 year old. If Jansen lands in that tier I'm more than comfortable riding with Wong and McGuire until Teel arrives next season.
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Post by julyanmorley on Aug 13, 2024 11:33:49 GMT -5
Getting Jansen for 3/30 would be pretty exciting imo. I think McGuire is a lock to get non-tendered.
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Post by dirtywaterinla on Aug 13, 2024 11:39:42 GMT -5
Let me first say that I really like Wong. He’d make an excellent utility option when Teel is ready. However, I’m also leaning on selling high on him this offseason and resigning Jansen seeing Wong has really shown himself to be a subpar defender @ C. I think packaging Wong alongside one of the OFs (a discussion for another day) would fetch a pretty decent return.
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Post by incandenza on Aug 13, 2024 11:50:01 GMT -5
Getting Jansen for 3/30 would be pretty exciting imo. I think McGuire is a lock to get non-tendered. I'm less optimistic on Jansen. He has a .312 xwOBA since the start of 2023 and will be going into his age 30 season. ZiPS seems to love him but I'm not sure I'm buying it... In any case, what's your reason for thinking he'd be relatively inexpensive? If you think it would be exciting to get him for 3/30, maybe he'll get offers for a lot more than that.
I dunno, just seems kind of inefficient to spend on a FA catcher when they have Wong and Teel to hold down the position for peanuts. But then, I suppose that's their situation at pretty much every other position too.
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Post by bcsox on Aug 13, 2024 11:52:00 GMT -5
As a true Sox pessimist for the first time in an extra inning game, I was sure the Sox were going to walk it off because when the cameraman screwed it up and fixated on the fans for 2 seconds before the last pitch, the shot was of my son, who ended up going on student $9 tix and worked his way down to the front. I am going to send him again tonight!!
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 13, 2024 12:13:21 GMT -5
Getting Jansen for 3/30 would be pretty exciting imo. I think McGuire is a lock to get non-tendered. I'm less optimistic on Jansen. He has a .312 xwOBA since the start of 2023 and will be going into his age 30 season. ZiPS seems to love him but I'm not sure I'm buying it... In any case, what's your reason for thinking he'd be relatively inexpensive? If you think it would be exciting to get him for 3/30, maybe he'll get offers for a lot more than that.
I dunno, just seems kind of inefficient to spend on a FA catcher when they have Wong and Teel to hold down the position for peanuts. But then, I suppose that's their situation at pretty much every other position too.
I would think at some point next year Teel forces his way to Boston. Dont see how giving Danny Jansen, say 3 years 30 million makes a lot of sense when it's just a matter of time before he's little more than a backup catcher. Might as keep Wong around as the backup who can play regularly if need be or play other positions if need be, for a lot less money. Why pay all that extra money when they need to be investing it in pitching? Now, if by signing Danny Jansen, the idea is that it allows for them to deal Wong for pitching then that's a different situation, one worth exploring.
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Post by julyanmorley on Aug 13, 2024 12:17:26 GMT -5
Getting Jansen for 3/30 would be pretty exciting imo. I think McGuire is a lock to get non-tendered. I'm less optimistic on Jansen. He has a .312 xwOBA since the start of 2023 and will be going into his age 30 season. ZiPS seems to love him but I'm not sure I'm buying it... In any case, what's your reason for thinking he'd be relatively inexpensive? If you think it would be exciting to get him for 3/30, maybe he'll get offers for a lot more than that.
I dunno, just seems kind of inefficient to spend on a FA catcher when they have Wong and Teel to hold down the position for peanuts. But then, I suppose that's their situation at pretty much every other position too.
Jansen is the simplest way to spend money and get more wins on the position player side I think. Other than Juan Soto, we'd just be adding a 1.5-2.5 WAR INF/OF to the big pile of 1.5-2.5 WAR INF/OFs we already have.
I don't really know what he'll fetch, but I see Jim Bowden has ranked him the 45th best free agent, one spot below Justin Turner.
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Post by incandenza on Aug 13, 2024 12:29:39 GMT -5
I'm less optimistic on Jansen. He has a .312 xwOBA since the start of 2023 and will be going into his age 30 season. ZiPS seems to love him but I'm not sure I'm buying it... In any case, what's your reason for thinking he'd be relatively inexpensive? If you think it would be exciting to get him for 3/30, maybe he'll get offers for a lot more than that.
I dunno, just seems kind of inefficient to spend on a FA catcher when they have Wong and Teel to hold down the position for peanuts. But then, I suppose that's their situation at pretty much every other position too.
Jansen is the simplest way to spend money and get more wins on the position player side I think. Other than Juan Soto, we'd just be adding a 1.5-2.5 WAR INF/OF to the big pile of 1.5-2.5 WAR INF/OFs we already have.
I don't really know what he'll fetch, but I see Jim Bowden has ranked him the 45th best free agent, one spot below Justin Turner. Well that's a thought. Though I think this logic becomes pretty uncertain for any year past 2025 and/but I'd be surprised if Jansen can't get at least a 3 year deal.
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Aug 13, 2024 12:38:03 GMT -5
Jansen seems like a 1-2 WAR type of catcher, Wong also seems like a 1-2 WAR catcher. I'm not really sure I see the logic in signing Jansen to a contract unless it were only for 1 maybe 2 years but his market will probably get him a 3+ year deal. Throw Teel into the equation and I see even less reason to sign Jansen. Trading Wong could certainly change the equation though.
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asm18
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Post by asm18 on Aug 13, 2024 13:03:56 GMT -5
I am both very happy for DeGrom, and also happy we do not have to face him
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Post by soxfansince67 on Aug 13, 2024 13:31:10 GMT -5
slight tick up to 36% playoff chance.
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Post by finaliz3d on Aug 13, 2024 14:01:46 GMT -5
Brad Keller is now a free agent so, he re-signed with us on a minor league deal? confused why he would agree to that, like we demoted him, he opts out, then just re-signs? guessing there wasn't any immediate interest so he decided to just re-sign.
that leaves an open 40-man spot, though, they probably just fill it with Casas when he's off the 60-day IL.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Aug 13, 2024 14:29:42 GMT -5
slight tick up to 36% playoff chance. I’ve started to look at that less and accept that a wild card bid is going to take a really hot 10 game stretch. If you don’t have one, someone else is bound to
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Post by keninten on Aug 13, 2024 14:33:29 GMT -5
Paxton probably out for the year.
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Post by pappyman99 on Aug 13, 2024 14:35:40 GMT -5
Paxton probably out for the year. Kind of what happens when you trade for a mid 30s pitcher with his injury pedigree
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Aug 13, 2024 14:57:21 GMT -5
Paxton Paxtoff
Not that I want to lose pitching, but it was bogus that Criswell got bumped for Paxton anyway. I wanted Criswell in the rotation and a flame throwing lefty out of the pen to begin with
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asm18
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Post by asm18 on Aug 13, 2024 14:57:26 GMT -5
slight tick up to 36% playoff chance. I’ve started to look at that less and accept that a wild card bid is going to take a really hot 10 game stretch. If you don’t have one, someone else is bound to I know our schedule has been brought up at various points as a concern - to me it’s really this upcoming 7 game road trip vs Houston and Baltimore. Once you get past that you’re looking at a lot of more appetizing things like series @detroit, vs White Sox, 8 games vs the Blue Jays (including the one resuming from suspension). I think there’s definitely a pocket amongst that for a hot 10 game stretch… but they first gotta avoid annihilation against the two scariest teams in the AL for seven straight days (and these next two of course!)
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Post by dirtywaterinla on Aug 13, 2024 15:43:43 GMT -5
I’ve started to look at that less and accept that a wild card bid is going to take a really hot 10 game stretch. If you don’t have one, someone else is bound to I know our schedule has been brought up at various points as a concern - to me it’s really this upcoming 7 game road trip vs Houston and Baltimore. Once you get past that you’re looking at a lot of more appetizing things like series @detroit, vs White Sox, 8 games vs the Blue Jays (including the one resuming from suspension). I think there’s definitely a pocket amongst that for a hot 10 game stretch… but they first gotta avoid annihilation against the two scariest teams in the AL for seven straight days (and these next two of course!) Yes, the team *must* at least tread water the next 9 games. If they go worse than 5-4, it’s gonna put them in a pretty rough spot.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Aug 13, 2024 15:55:16 GMT -5
I’ve started to look at that less and accept that a wild card bid is going to take a really hot 10 game stretch. If you don’t have one, someone else is bound to I know our schedule has been brought up at various points as a concern - to me it’s really this upcoming 7 game road trip vs Houston and Baltimore. Once you get past that you’re looking at a lot of more appetizing things like series @detroit, vs White Sox, 8 games vs the Blue Jays (including the one resuming from suspension). I think there’s definitely a pocket amongst that for a hot 10 game stretch… but they first gotta avoid annihilation against the two scariest teams in the AL for seven straight days (and these next two of course!) Yeah between the schedule and the pitching staff flailing and waiting for a second wind, it’s just a matter of holding on floor dear life and waiting for the cupcakes.
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