asm18
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Post by asm18 on Aug 23, 2024 21:00:52 GMT -5
After this Sox will be 67-60, and will be 3.5 - 4.5 back of MIN and KC for WC2 and WC3. Last year at this point they were… 67-60 lol(They were 4 back of SEA for WC3, with the Blue Jays standing between them and SEA. From that point on the Red Sox were tied with the White Sox as the worst team in the AL, finishing 11-24.) Last season they were coming off of a head-scratching offseason, but were hot in the middle of the season and there was a lot of buzz about all the young talent starting to contribute in Boston until they faded down the stretch. Whereas this season...
Breslow's about to be fired, is what I'm saying.
What other candidates with CB initials are available hmm… It’s not much of a silver lining, but the team is in a modestly better position today than they were on August 23rd, 2023. They currently don’t have to jump any other non-playoff teams - and compared to last year where there was one WC spot available for all intents and purposes, two are realistically attainable. (Although KC will try to change that…) Biggest change is hopefully Duran and Casas don’t have season ending injuries this time around!
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Post by dirtdog on Aug 23, 2024 21:04:16 GMT -5
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Post by soxfansince67 on Aug 23, 2024 21:07:58 GMT -5
Run differential down to +18. KC is +110. Minn is +73.
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Post by grandsalami on Aug 23, 2024 21:11:56 GMT -5
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Post by finaliz3d on Aug 23, 2024 21:13:18 GMT -5
Bad news, Royals are up 7-2 in the 7th. Good news, Twins down 4-1 in the 7th.
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Post by incandenza on Aug 23, 2024 21:13:30 GMT -5
Last season they were coming off of a head-scratching offseason, but were hot in the middle of the season and there was a lot of buzz about all the young talent starting to contribute in Boston until they faded down the stretch. Whereas this season...
Breslow's about to be fired, is what I'm saying.
What other candidates with CB initials are available hmm… It’s not much of a silver lining, but the team is in a modestly better position today than they were on August 23rd, 2023. They currently don’t have to jump any other non-playoff teams - and compared to last year where there was one WC spot available for all intents and purposes, two are realistically attainable. (Although KC will try to change that…) Biggest change is hopefully Duran and Casas don’t have season ending injuries this time around! Yeah their playoff odds are actually higher now than I realized, 46%. With the same record last season they were at 11.5%.
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Post by foreverred9 on Aug 23, 2024 21:16:05 GMT -5
PECOTA is still saying that 88 wins will do it. Fangraphs is saying 89 wins.
PECOTA has the Sox at 86 wins. Fangraphs has them at 85 wins.
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Post by dirtdog on Aug 23, 2024 21:19:04 GMT -5
Run differential down to +18. KC is +110. Minn is +73. Water is coming in back of the boat (pitching staff) faster than the front of the boat (offense) can bail it out. With an ERA over 6 since the AS break they are lucky to only be 4 games under 500 in that time.
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Post by foreverred9 on Aug 23, 2024 21:34:18 GMT -5
The pitching staff has moved into the top 5 after tonight for most runs allowed this season at 4.82 per game.
Since the AS break they are the worst in baseball at 6.56 runs allowed per game. No one else is close, the Rockies are at 5.53 while the White Sox are at 5.52. The Sox were at 3.83 before the break.
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Post by soxfansince67 on Aug 23, 2024 21:44:46 GMT -5
Was looking at the season in two halves. First half - won 5 in a row 3 times, 4 in a row twice.
Second half - won 3 in a row once, 2 in a row 4 times. Lots of attrition going on. No real winning streaks. To get into the playoffs, they are going to have to really catch fire.
Also noted that Raffy is hitting .230 for August with 3 HR and 8 RBI.
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Post by finaliz3d on Aug 23, 2024 22:05:39 GMT -5
Old friend Ryan Fernandez closes the game, and the Cardinals beat the Twins 6-1. So, we're only 3.5 back, that's... something positive, I guess?
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keninten
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Post by keninten on Aug 23, 2024 22:11:00 GMT -5
The zillion dollar question - why does this Red Sox team struggle so badly at home? Thoughts? Ideas? I`ll build a case here for a small part of it. Last off season they were looking for a GM. How many potenials for the job didn`t want it? Maybe that was all hearsay. Then there is Mookie. Wouldn`t even entertain a multi year deal. Look at the Jarren incident. Taking out what Durran did. A fan at home yells at Duran that he can`t hit the ball with a tennis racket. Now I don`t know if that guy was a Sox fan or Astros fan but why would an Astros fan be that mad about Durran striking out? This crap has been happening at Fenway since I was a kid. I remember Yaz getting booed and heckled because he signed a $100,000 contract. Players want to play ball. You have to take the good with the bad and so many players have said that Fenway has that playoff atmosphere and would like to play there. Look at a guy like Bobby Dalbec. He is trying his best but is not good enough. He also has to listen to all the crap from his own fans. This stuff happens with all teams but at Fenway it`s over the top. I`ve always wanted to discuss this. So that rant is out of my system.
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Post by notstarboard on Aug 23, 2024 22:16:12 GMT -5
The zillion dollar question - why does this Red Sox team struggle so badly at home? Thoughts? Ideas? I`ll build a case here for a small part of it. Last off season they were looking for a GM. How many potenials for the job didn`t want it? Maybe that was all hearsay. Then there is Mookie. Wouldn`t even entertain a multi year deal. Look at the Jarren incident. Taking out what Durran did. A fan at home yells at Duran that he can`t hit the ball with a tennis racket. Now I don`t know if that guy was a Sox fan or Astros fan but why would an Astros fan be that mad about Durran striking out? This crap has been happening at Fenway since I was a kid. I remember Yaz getting booed and heckled because he signed a $100,000 contract. Players want to play ball. You have to take the good with the bad and so many players have said that Fenway has that playoff atmosphere and would like to play there. Look at a guy like Bobby Dalbec. He is trying his best but is not good enough. He also has to listen to all the crap from his own fans. This stuff happens with all teams but at Fenway it`s over the top. I`ve always wanted to discuss this. So that rant is out of my system. I would totally buy this - it's always bothered me too. I just have no idea if the heckling is worse in Boston; haven't sat near the plate in enough places. Do others with more experience in other parks than me agree?
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keninten
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Post by keninten on Aug 23, 2024 22:20:31 GMT -5
When I moved out of NE and started going to other parks is when I noticed it. Usually at other parks it`s a drunk doing it. But the atmosphere is much more laid back. That`s what I meant about good with the bad. If I wanted to bring a newbie to a game it would be Fenway.
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Post by soxfansince67 on Aug 23, 2024 22:33:12 GMT -5
FanGraphs playoff odds as of now are interesting....
Guardians, Twins, and Astros are all around 90%. Royals are 83%. Red Sox 33%. Seattle 13%.
Dogfight ending to the season to get into postseason. Sox as I said above badly need a hot streak - and some of the teams above a cold streak.
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Post by incandenza on Aug 23, 2024 22:59:35 GMT -5
The zillion dollar question - why does this Red Sox team struggle so badly at home? Thoughts? Ideas? I`ll build a case here for a small part of it. Last off season they were looking for a GM. How many potenials for the job didn`t want it? Maybe that was all hearsay. Then there is Mookie. Wouldn`t even entertain a multi year deal. Look at the Jarren incident. Taking out what Durran did. A fan at home yells at Duran that he can`t hit the ball with a tennis racket. Now I don`t know if that guy was a Sox fan or Astros fan but why would an Astros fan be that mad about Durran striking out? This crap has been happening at Fenway since I was a kid. I remember Yaz getting booed and heckled because he signed a $100,000 contract. Players want to play ball. You have to take the good with the bad and so many players have said that Fenway has that playoff atmosphere and would like to play there. Look at a guy like Bobby Dalbec. He is trying his best but is not good enough. He also has to listen to all the crap from his own fans. This stuff happens with all teams but at Fenway it`s over the top. I`ve always wanted to discuss this. So that rant is out of my system. And yet they've been a good home team for most of the time since you were a kid. So I don't think this can really explain anything about this season specifically.
My theory is that it's basically random and meaningless. Like, they were 12-16 in May and 15-11 in June, which is about on the same order as their home/road discrepancy. Is it anything that really needs explanation, or is that just how the cookie happened to crumble in those particular sets of games.
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Post by rhswanzey on Aug 23, 2024 23:06:39 GMT -5
We’ve had our eyes on the Royals for a while, but the Sox at least have agency when it comes to the Twins because they play them again. While the Royals have the aforementioned tough schedule, we’re left to hoping that they actually fall apart. Which is a hard ask for the team that has Bobby Witt And now they’re only one game behind Cleveland. So that’s another team with which we’re out of H2H games, but KC may end up having nothing to do with playoff odds in the end.
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keninten
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Post by keninten on Aug 24, 2024 0:00:34 GMT -5
I`ll build a case here for a small part of it. Last off season they were looking for a GM. How many potenials for the job didn`t want it? Maybe that was all hearsay. Then there is Mookie. Wouldn`t even entertain a multi year deal. Look at the Jarren incident. Taking out what Durran did. A fan at home yells at Duran that he can`t hit the ball with a tennis racket. Now I don`t know if that guy was a Sox fan or Astros fan but why would an Astros fan be that mad about Durran striking out? This crap has been happening at Fenway since I was a kid. I remember Yaz getting booed and heckled because he signed a $100,000 contract. Players want to play ball. You have to take the good with the bad and so many players have said that Fenway has that playoff atmosphere and would like to play there. Look at a guy like Bobby Dalbec. He is trying his best but is not good enough. He also has to listen to all the crap from his own fans. This stuff happens with all teams but at Fenway it`s over the top. I`ve always wanted to discuss this. So that rant is out of my system. And yet they've been a good home team for most of the time since you were a kid. So I don't think this can really explain anything about this season specifically.
My theory is that it's basically random and meaningless. Like, they were 12-16 in May and 15-11 in June, which is about on the same order as their home/road discrepancy. Is it anything that really needs explanation, or is that just how the cookie happened to crumble in those particular sets of games.
Very true.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Aug 24, 2024 0:36:45 GMT -5
Take a look at the box score. Gasper's .000 BA / .740 OPS is something you are unlikely to see topped in your lifetime unless he ups it next plate appearance.
He's 1 walk away from leading the team in OPS.
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Post by cba82 on Aug 24, 2024 7:34:20 GMT -5
Whatever this Mickey Gasper experiment has been about, can we please call an end to it?
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Post by dirtdog on Aug 24, 2024 10:26:08 GMT -5
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Post by grandsalami on Aug 24, 2024 10:36:12 GMT -5
Relief pitchers and closers in general is like playing russian roulette. They can be lights out one year and a Desaster the next
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Post by incandenza on Aug 24, 2024 10:52:00 GMT -5
Relief pitchers and closers in general is like playing russian roulette. They can be lights out one year and a Desaster the next People think there are "good" relievers and "bad" relievers. But in any given year there are like 10 "good" relievers at most. Everyone else is just a marginal major leaguer who is not good enough to be a starter, though they might look good for 60 innings. That's why big contracts and trades for relievers so often fail: the idea that you're getting a dependable performer is usually an illusion.
Would the Red Sox have been worse off just calling up Zeferjahn instead of trading him and three other guys for Garcia?
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Post by rhswanzey on Aug 24, 2024 10:52:05 GMT -5
Phil Maton pitching in 16 of the 22 Mets games since trade deadline day
Luis Garcia with 7.5 runs in between his ERA and Xpected FIP
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 24, 2024 11:20:22 GMT -5
Relief pitchers and closers in general is like playing russian roulette. They can be lights out one year and a Desaster the next People think there are "good" relievers and "bad" relievers. But in any given year there are like 10 "good" relievers at most. Everyone else is just a marginal major leaguer who is not good enough to be a starter, though they might look good for 60 innings. That's why big contracts and trades for relievers so often fail: the idea that you're getting a dependable performer is usually an illusion. Would the Red Sox have been worse off just calling up Zeferjahn instead of trading him and three other guys for Garcia?
Hate to say it but alot of starters are pretty marginal these days. Can't even make it through 5 innings and teams are terrified of letting them face a batting order for the 3rd time, so when all is said and done many games these days are decided by these marginal relievers you're referring to which is why there's a never ending search for effective relievers.
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