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9/2-9/4 Red Sox @ Mets Series Thread
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Post by alexcorahomevideo on Sept 5, 2024 5:06:34 GMT -5
The Red Sox are now closer to top 5 draft pick odds than they are to a playoff spot. 5.5 out of the Wild car and 4.5 ahead of the Pirates for that #5 spot. Depends if they put up a fight against Baltimore and NYY. If they play hard, they’ll probably finish 4th in the wild card. If they’ve accepted their fate I could see them falling closer to Pittsburgh. I don’t think anyone wants that to happen, however if it does maybe that’s the wake up call ownership needs.
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asm18
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Post by asm18 on Sept 5, 2024 6:10:45 GMT -5
The Red Sox are now closer to top 5 draft pick odds than they are to a playoff spot. 5.5 out of the Wild car and 4.5 ahead of the Pirates for that #5 spot. Depends if they put up a fight against Baltimore and NYY. If they play hard, they’ll probably finish 4th in the wild card. If they’ve accepted their fate I could see them falling closer to Pittsburgh. I don’t think anyone wants that to happen, however if it does maybe that’s the wake up call ownership needs. Here’s a less than fun thought - what if another collapse is signal to John Henry and ownership that it is still not the “right time” to spend? If you finish the season strong and like 3 games out of a playoff spot, maybe you have a stronger case if you’re Breslow to ask to throw money around than if you finish 78-84 again. It’s not like having losing seasons the last few years had any jolting effect on ownership to dramatically alter their offseaon approaches
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Sept 5, 2024 7:01:32 GMT -5
The Red Sox are now closer to top 5 draft pick odds than they are to a playoff spot. 5.5 out of the Wild car and 4.5 ahead of the Pirates for that #5 spot. Depends if they put up a fight against Baltimore and NYY. If they play hard, they’ll probably finish 4th in the wild card. If they’ve accepted their fate I could see them falling closer to Pittsburgh. I don’t think anyone wants that to happen, however if it does maybe that’s the wake up call ownership needs. Since the playoffs aren't happening with this broken down squad without a miracle you can perhaps make a case that they're just better off losing as many games here on out as they can. I want to say I read that next years draft is supposed to be solid, which would make sense as this years was said to be a down year. Personally I'm rooting for a miracle or at least some signs of life but just throwing it out that I could see why someone might think to hell with it just lose now to try and get a better pick.
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Post by soxfansince67 on Sept 5, 2024 7:01:55 GMT -5
Anyone read or heard anything from Breslow?
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Post by alexcorahomevideo on Sept 5, 2024 7:30:49 GMT -5
Depends if they put up a fight against Baltimore and NYY. If they play hard, they’ll probably finish 4th in the wild card. If they’ve accepted their fate I could see them falling closer to Pittsburgh. I don’t think anyone wants that to happen, however if it does maybe that’s the wake up call ownership needs. Here’s a less than fun thought - what if another collapse is signal to John Henry and ownership that it is still not the “right time” to spend? If you finish the season strong and like 3 games out of a playoff spot, maybe you have a stronger case if you’re Breslow to ask to throw money around than if you finish 78-84 again. It’s not like having losing seasons the last few years had any jolting effect on ownership to dramatically alter their offseaon approaches Yeah I thought about that too. It seems like the Sox and the Penguins have a lot of parallels in FSG portfolio. Liverpool is doing well, but they bottle a lot, no one worse than Arsenal though. I don't really expect JWH to spend but as always I hope I’m wrong. It’s just a shame that the prices are among the highest in baseball, yet, once you get past the “Fenway experience” there’s little to no substance on the field. I have season tickets, probably only went to about 30 games, I had more fun watching the Sea Dogs and the Woosox this year. Just seeing these prospects come up, that gives me something to look forward to.
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Post by incandenza on Sept 5, 2024 7:58:49 GMT -5
So again, they were willing to spend upwards of $200 million (maybe $300 million) on Yamamoto last offseason. The fact that they didn't match up with anyone else in that particular free agent class beyond Giolito doesn't mean they're unwilling to spend on someone they like. (And of course that was one year after signing a $330 million contract for a player which amusingly always gets hand-waved out of the "willingness to spend" conversation.)
Having said that, I really don't know if such a player exists in the coming free agent class. There are Burnes and Fried and Snell, but each of those guys comes with red flags attached. Maybe they'll get one of them at a price they like; maybe they'll consider the need for pitching desperate enough that they're willing to overpay; or maybe they'll just decide the investment isn't worth it.
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asm18
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Post by asm18 on Sept 5, 2024 8:29:36 GMT -5
So again, they were willing to spend upwards of $200 million (maybe $300 million) on Yamamoto last offseason. The fact that they didn't match up with anyone else in that particular free agent class beyond Giolito doesn't mean they're unwilling to spend on someone they like. (And of course that was one year after signing a $330 million contract for a player which amusingly always gets hand-waved out of the "willingness to spend" conversation.) Having said that, I really don't know if such a player exists in the coming free agent class. There are Burnes and Fried and Snell, but each of those guys comes with red flags attached. Maybe they'll get one of them at a price they like; maybe they'll consider the need for pitching desperate enough that they're willing to overpay; or maybe they'll just decide the investment isn't worth it. I'm comfortable asserting they'll be with 5 to 10 mil of the luxury tax, and then beyond that... no earthly idea. 🤷 Ownership swings back and forth between authorizing their GM's to give out sizable $ deals and then firing them if those don't work out (even if the GM has otherwise done what they've been asked to accomplish...): -Cherington wins World Series ring but signs Hanley, Sandoval - gets fired -Dombrowski wins World Series ring but extends Sale - gets fired -Chaim gets them a surprise ALCS appearance, rebuilds the farm, and does their dirty work of trading Mookie Betts, but signs Story, Yoshida - gets fired I think we give the guys writing the paychecks too much credit in assuming they have a coherent, well thought-out plan or spending philosophy at the moment
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Post by alexcorahomevideo on Sept 5, 2024 8:40:09 GMT -5
So again, they were willing to spend upwards of $200 million (maybe $300 million) on Yamamoto last offseason. The fact that they didn't match up with anyone else in that particular free agent class beyond Giolito doesn't mean they're unwilling to spend on someone they like. (And of course that was one year after signing a $330 million contract for a player which amusingly always gets hand-waved out of the "willingness to spend" conversation.) Having said that, I really don't know if such a player exists in the coming free agent class. There are Burnes and Fried and Snell, but each of those guys comes with red flags attached. Maybe they'll get one of them at a price they like; maybe they'll consider the need for pitching desperate enough that they're willing to overpay; or maybe they'll just decide the investment isn't worth it. I'm comfortable asserting they'll be with 5 to 10 mil of the luxury tax, and then beyond that... no earthly idea. 🤷 Ownership swings back and forth between authorizing their GM's to give out sizable $ deals and then firing them if those don't work out (even if the GM has otherwise done what they've been asked to accomplish...): -Cherington wins World Series ring but signs Hanley, Sandoval - gets fired -Dombrowski wins World Series ring but extends Sale - gets fired -Chaim gets them a surprise ALCS appearance, rebuilds the farm, and does their dirty work of trading Mookie Betts, but signs Story, Yoshida - gets fired I think we give the guys writing the paychecks too much credit in assuming they have a coherent, well thought-out plan or spending philosophy at the moment The Story thing was always weird and was more or less a preemptive approach to replacing Xander because they didn’t want to pay him until the very end, which by that time the Padres came in with a stupid offer. I’d give a big offer to Burnes or Snell. Let’s face it, none of these guys come without risk, Snell we know is going to be brutal to watch until June, Burnes has been inconsistent at times. Eventually something needs to give, pitching seems to be a bigger issue due to lack of pipeline in the minors. Hanley and Panda were definitely weird as well. Putting Hanley in Left was doomed at the start. Panda just couldn’t control his eating.
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Sept 5, 2024 8:50:29 GMT -5
I don't think there is any magic bullet coming in to make this team go from fringe contenders to real contenders. FA is pretty bleak other than paying out the nose for Burnes/Fried/Snell or dropping down into the tier of the Eovaldi's which both come with plenty of risk. In terms of hitters in FA I see nothing to really sink a big contract into. I think they make a big signing for a P and make a big trade. Other than that they need to reinforce this BP quickly so my thought is acquiring all the pitching they can and hope for improvements/reinforcements coming for position players with the young talent they have there.
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asm18
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Post by asm18 on Sept 5, 2024 9:17:19 GMT -5
Red Sox WAR Rankings by Position (via Fangraphs - ranked by "Positional Split")* C: 25th (1.4) 1B: 20th (.4) 2B: 30th (-2.0)!!!SS: 19th (2.2) 3B: 13th (2.6) - if you're wondering why this is so low despite a good Devers season, Pablo Reyes and Bobby Dalbec in limited time at 3B were worth something like a negative win and a half LF: 3rd (3.7) CF: 3rd (4.2) RF: 2nd (4.7) DH: 17th (.4) SP: 11th (10.6) RP: 17th (2.6) You know as excited as I am for Roman Anthony, even if he's good right away as a 21 year old it feels unfair to expect him he to dramatically exceed Tyler O'Neill's 2.2 WAR and 25 bombs if he de-facto replaces his role as one of the corner outfielders at some point next year. A quality corner infielder who can play in case Devers/Casas get hurt again would be very nice. And for the love of God can someone take the second base job and run with it next year *Fangraphs has two ways to sort by position - primary position (example: all of Duran's WAR is in CF) and by performance "played as ____" (example: Duran WAR is spread out among LF/CF). Given the amount of shifting around in the outfield and middle outfield spots it made sense to me to go with the latter.
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Post by julyanmorley on Sept 5, 2024 9:21:08 GMT -5
.4 being good for 17th place at DH is pretty weird
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Post by soxfansince67 on Sept 5, 2024 9:22:43 GMT -5
Also noted FanGraphs has our final 2024 record now pegged at 81-81.
Last night Cora said "we are a .500 team".
He speaks truth.
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asm18
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Post by asm18 on Sept 5, 2024 9:28:13 GMT -5
.4 being good for 17th place at DH is pretty weird Even if you sort by " Primary Position" they're at .1 but ranked 20th. Giants at .3 are ranked 19th. Just not as many good DH's? If it was gonna be like this you'd figure someone should have signed like Brandon Belt during the offseason
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Post by James Dunne on Sept 5, 2024 9:36:04 GMT -5
I am constantly befuddled when teams use their DH as a way to just cycle through guys who aren't playing in the field that day rather than just using it on some masher who sucks defensively. (Not that the Red Sox have done this.)
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Post by Don Caballero on Sept 5, 2024 9:44:57 GMT -5
The Red Sox are now closer to top 5 draft pick odds than they are to a playoff spot. 5.5 out of the Wild car and 4.5 ahead of the Pirates for that #5 spot. Embrace it bros.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Sept 5, 2024 9:52:56 GMT -5
No easy answer for improvement. If it is any consolation, the league is pretty spread out talent wise and with the amount of playoff teams, contending in future years seems more probable.
Tough to turn on a dime when you have been slowly rebuilding. We got good young players on the squad, another year of seasoning, who knows ? Decent prospects. I don't know the answer in the FA market, I just kind of hope they never sign James Paxson or Rich HIll again.
Been a hard fall from the season's apex. Can't really grasp why, lot of reasons. More than anything, not complemetary baseball. Defense has hurt all year. though.
I am gonna pray to my maker that we go 17-5 over the last 22 to win the last playoff spot. It is in my blood.
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Post by rhswanzey on Sept 5, 2024 10:00:35 GMT -5
Red Sox WAR Rankings by Position (via Fangraphs - ranked by "Positional Split")* C: 25th (1.4) 1B: 20th (.4) 2B: 30th (-2.0)!!!SS: 19th (2.2) 3B: 13th (2.6) - if you're wondering why this is so low despite a good Devers season, Pablo Reyes and Bobby Dalbec in limited time at 3B were worth something like a negative win and a half LF: 3rd (3.7) CF: 3rd (4.2) RF: 2nd (4.7) DH: 17th (.4) SP: 11th (10.6) RP: 17th (2.6) And for the love of God can someone take the second base job and run with it next year *Fangraphs has two ways to sort by position - primary position (example: all of Duran's WAR is in CF) and by performance "played as ____" (example: Duran WAR is spread out among LF/CF). Given the amount of shifting around in the outfield and middle outfield spots it made sense to me to go with the latter. David Hamilton (SS): .282/.342/.443 (190 PA) David Hamilton (2B): .207/.254/.315 (118 PA) That positional split is helping obscure that middle infield in general was a major problem for the second consecutive season. I think both positions were major problems, rather than SS being okayish and 2B being the worst in baseball.
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Post by melvinhoggs on Sept 5, 2024 10:01:23 GMT -5
I am constantly befuddled when teams use their DH as a way to just cycle through guys who aren't playing in the field that day rather than just using it on some masher who sucks defensively. (Not that the Red Sox have done this.) It's impossible to quantify, but don't these teams just see value in getting their regulars off their feet while still keeping their bat in the lineup? Only a very small handful of teams have a true masher to plug permanently into the DH spot. Outside of 4-5 guys (Alvarez, Rooker, Pederson, etc.) most DHs are worth like, 1 WAR or less. Is the ability to keep regulars' legs slightly fresher worth more than that? I don't know, but it certainly seems possible.
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Post by rhswanzey on Sept 5, 2024 10:03:06 GMT -5
Was Rafaela pinch hit for this season? Like, ever?
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Post by bojacksoxfan on Sept 5, 2024 10:03:42 GMT -5
I am constantly befuddled when teams use their DH as a way to just cycle through guys who aren't playing in the field that day rather than just using it on some masher who sucks defensively. (Not that the Red Sox have done this.) 100%. Anytime a team says they are going to cycle through players I take that as code for we are only going to try to roster 8 good position players. Maybe that’s what’s coming out in those rankings and theoretically a space for a team to zig back to a one dimensional slugger DH.
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Post by grandsalami on Sept 5, 2024 10:18:12 GMT -5
I am constantly befuddled when teams use their DH as a way to just cycle through guys who aren't playing in the field that day rather than just using it on some masher who sucks defensively. (Not that the Red Sox have done this.) It's impossible to quantify, but don't these teams just see value in getting their regulars off their feet while still keeping their bat in the lineup? Only a very small handful of teams have a true masher to plug permanently into the DH spot. Outside of 4-5 guys (Alvarez, Rooker, Pederson, etc.) most DHs are worth like, 1 WAR or less. Is the ability to keep regulars' legs slightly fresher worth more than that? I don't know, but it certainly seems possible. Yup. Its 100% this. The days of a dedicated DH are long gone. (Ortiz etc) Most teams use the DH to give players a day of “rest” off the field.
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Post by Darwin's Curve on Sept 5, 2024 10:20:04 GMT -5
I don't think there is any magic bullet coming in to make this team go from fringe contenders to real contenders. FA is pretty bleak other than paying out the nose for Burnes/Fried/Snell or dropping down into the tier of the Eovaldi's which both come with plenty of risk. In terms of hitters in FA I see nothing to really sink a big contract into. I think they make a big signing for a P and make a big trade. Other than that they need to reinforce this BP quickly so my thought is acquiring all the pitching they can and hope for improvements/reinforcements coming for position players with the young talent they have there. I don't think they really need to do much to be competitive. They're losing Pivetta from the rotation, Jansen and Martin out of the pen, and O'Neill from the field (plus all the rentals from this year.) They have an option on Refsnyder. They should be getting: Giolito (if he exercises his option), Hendriks, Whitlock, Murphy. And full seasons from Story and Casas. (I'm also bullish on Winckowski getting better results post ankle surgery, as I am bullish on an uninjured Yoshida hitting.) They're pretty much set with starting position players. SS/2B remains a question mark, but I'm personally comfortable with the depth they have at 2B in Hamilton/Grissom/Romy/Valdez. It really comes down to who can field SS - and I hope it's a credible-hitting Story. If things go even moderately well, the sox have some surplus talent in the high minors in the middle infield in particular that they can trade out of. The rotation depth should be something like: Giolito, Houck, Bello, Crawford, Whitlock, Criswell, Winckowski, Murphy, Fitts, Priester. The pen depth should be something like: Hendricks, Kelly, Slaten, Booser, Bernardino, Weissart, Shugart, Campbell, plus whatever live arms we have in the minors next year - Horn, Penrod, Guerreo, etc. So I think there are only a couple areas to easily upgrade. 1) Add an arm to deepen the bullpen (even if it's a starter to displace Whitlock to the pen.) 2) Get some more Criswell/Anderson types early on for depth. That's it. They just have to make wise choices about that arm. They could get creative and shuffle things around - trading Yoshida or trading for an ace, but I don't really think either are really necessary. I'm also tired of the feast-or-famine offense. Whatever the hitting coaches are doing needs to change - or they need to be replaced. I'd also replace Cora, but I doubt that's in the cards. So ultimately, I think next year will be very much like this one in the sense there will be a lot of squandered wins, and a lot of mystifying bullpen decisions. Whether that spirals the team for a 4th year. . .we'll see.
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Post by bojacksoxfan on Sept 5, 2024 10:20:27 GMT -5
It's impossible to quantify, but don't these teams just see value in getting their regulars off their feet while still keeping their bat in the lineup? Only a very small handful of teams have a true masher to plug permanently into the DH spot. Outside of 4-5 guys (Alvarez, Rooker, Pederson, etc.) most DHs are worth like, 1 WAR or less. Is the ability to keep regulars' legs slightly fresher worth more than that? I don't know, but it certainly seems possible. Yup. Its 100% this. The days of a dedicated DH are long gone. Most teams use the DH to give players a day of “rest” off the field. Yes, that’s what they say and perhaps that rest is seen in better performances in their regular positions, but there is apparently a cost of often getting nothing out of the DH position.
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Post by julyanmorley on Sept 5, 2024 10:23:20 GMT -5
I don't think there's many guys that can hit well and can't field these days. Leaguewide SSs have a higher OPS than 1Bs this year. Maybe it's kinda random, or maybe it's just hard to hit modern pitching if you're not super athletic to begin with.
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Post by Darwin's Curve on Sept 5, 2024 10:36:15 GMT -5
Also noted FanGraphs has our final 2024 record now pegged at 81-81. Last night Cora said "we are a .500 team". He speaks truth. It's kind of amazing when you look at B-Ref. -7 of the top 9 guys in PAs have an OPS+ of over 100. (Hamilton at 92, CR at 87) 9 of their top 13 have an OPS+ of over 100. -3 of the 5 primary starters have an ERA+ of over 100. (Pivetta is at 96, and Bello is 91.) -The top 8 relief pitchers all have an ERA+ of over 100. All of 'em. And when Alex Cora is given a season to put all that talent together, he somehow manages to get a .500 team that collapses just when it's most important for them to dig in. I'm always amused by those who say "But Alex Cora really just needs an All-Star at every position to have a chance to win." Including Alex Cora. *** By comparison, the Yanks have: -4 of their top 9 hitters by PA over 100 (and the same 4 for their top 13). -4 of their 5 primary starters are over 100 in ERA+. (But not as hugely as you might guess: Stroman 104, Cortez 103, Rodon 100.) -6 of their top 8 relievers are over 100 in ERA+.
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