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9/2-9/4 Red Sox @ Mets Series Thread
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Post by ephus on Sept 5, 2024 10:43:33 GMT -5
Probably a weird time to bring this up, but, if I didn't miss anyone, here are your AL Rookie WAR Leaders as of 9/5/2024
1. Wilyer Abreu 3.0 2. Luis Gil 2.9 3. David Hamilton 2.7 4. Ceddanne Rafaela 2.6 5. Austin Wells 2.5 5. Hunter Gaddis 2.5 7. Colton Cowser 2.3 8. Wyatt Langford 2.0 8. Cade Smith 2.0 8. Simeon Woods Richardson 2.0 10. Mason Miller 1.9
Obviously, Wilyer is the most slept on rookie and it is criminal. If the Red Sox were legitimately fighting for a playoff spot he'd probably be much higher in the coversation.
Interestingly, less talked about rookies like Justin Slaten, Cooper Criswell and Cam Booser all have positive WAR, which is pretty cool.
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Post by melvinhoggs on Sept 5, 2024 10:53:06 GMT -5
Probably a weird time to bring this up, but, if I didn't miss anyone, here are your AL Rookie WAR Leaders as of 9/5/2024 1. Wilyer Abreu 3.0 2. Luis Gil 2.9 3. David Hamilton 2.7 4. Ceddanne Rafaela 2.6 5. Austin Wells 2.5 5. Hunter Gaddis 2.5 7. Colton Cowser 2.3 8. Wyatt Langford 2.0 8. Cade Smith 2.0 8. Simeon Woods Richardson 2.0 10. Mason Miller 1.9 Obviously, Wilyer is the most slept on rookie and it is criminal. If the Red Sox were legitimately fighting for a playoff spot he'd probably be much higher in the coversation. Interestingly, less talked about rookies like Justin Slaten, Cooper Criswell and Cam Booser all have positive WAR, which is pretty cool. Fangraphs has a much less rosy outlook on Hamilton and Ceddanne, which I tend to agree with.
They have Cowser in the lead, for whatever that's worth. He also has 100 more PAs than Abreu, though.
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Post by soxfansince67 on Sept 5, 2024 11:07:56 GMT -5
Also noted FanGraphs has our final 2024 record now pegged at 81-81. Last night Cora said "we are a .500 team". He speaks truth. It's kind of amazing when you look at B-Ref. -7 of the top 9 guys in PAs have an OPS+ of over 100. (Hamilton at 92, CR at 87) 9 of their top 13 have an OPS+ of over 100. -3 of the 5 primary starters have an ERA+ of over 100. (Pivetta is at 96, and Bello is 91.) -The top 8 relief pitchers all have an ERA+ of over 100. All of 'em. And when Alex Cora is given a season to put all that talent together, he somehow manages to get a .500 team that collapses just when it's most important for them to dig in. I'm always amused by those who say "But Alex Cora really just needs an All-Star at every position to have a chance to win." Including Alex Cora. *** By comparison, the Yanks have: -4 of their top 9 hitters by PA over 100 (and the same 4 for their top 13). -4 of their 5 primary starters are over 100 in ERA+. (But not as hugely as you might guess: Stroman 104, Cortez 103, Rodon 100.) -6 of their top 8 relievers are over 100 in ERA+. Very simplistically...it isn't WHAT the team does or doesn't do - it's WHEN they do - or don't do - it
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Post by ephus on Sept 5, 2024 11:15:05 GMT -5
[/quote] Fangraphs has a much less rosy outlook on Hamilton and Ceddanne, which I tend to agree with. They have Cowser in the lead, for whatever that's worth. He also has 100 more PAs than Abreu, though.
[/quote] I don't see either as an every day guy in 2025. But in a platoon position, you can go a whole lot worse than a couple 2+ WAR guys on your bench who can cover a whole bunch of positions when needed.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 5, 2024 11:29:18 GMT -5
It's impossible to quantify, but don't these teams just see value in getting their regulars off their feet while still keeping their bat in the lineup? Only a very small handful of teams have a true masher to plug permanently into the DH spot. Outside of 4-5 guys (Alvarez, Rooker, Pederson, etc.) most DHs are worth like, 1 WAR or less. Is the ability to keep regulars' legs slightly fresher worth more than that? I don't know, but it certainly seems possible. Yup. Its 100% this. The days of a dedicated DH are long gone. (Ortiz etc) Most teams use the DH to give players a day of “rest” off the field. I don't believe this is true. Looking at this link (hover over a guy's name to see everyone who played that position this year), it appears (without digging too deep) that the list of teams that don't appear to have a regular DH are Baltimore, the Cubs, Cincinnati, Cleveland, Detroit, KC, maybe the Angels, maybe Miami, Milwaukee, Minnesota, San Diego, St. Louis, Tampa, Texas, and Washington. So that implies something close to a 15/15 split among teams who do and do not have at least a most-of-the-time DH, and as mentioned, I didn't really look at how injuries may have played into it (I do know from being an Eloy Jimenez fantasy owner it was a factor with the White Sox). So while the expansion of the DH doesn't mean 30 full-time DH's, it also isn't correct to say that the days of a full-time DH are "long-gone".
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 5, 2024 11:37:40 GMT -5
I am constantly befuddled when teams use their DH as a way to just cycle through guys who aren't playing in the field that day rather than just using it on some masher who sucks defensively. (Not that the Red Sox have done this.) Yeah, always better to have a utility guy/backup in the lineup than a middle if the order masher, lol
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Post by incandenza on Sept 5, 2024 12:55:25 GMT -5
Red Sox WAR Rankings by Position (via Fangraphs - ranked by "Positional Split")* C: 25th (1.4) 1B: 20th (.4) 2B: 30th (-2.0)!!!SS: 19th (2.2) 3B: 13th (2.6) - if you're wondering why this is so low despite a good Devers season, Pablo Reyes and Bobby Dalbec in limited time at 3B were worth something like a negative win and a half LF: 3rd (3.7) CF: 3rd (4.2) RF: 2nd (4.7) DH: 17th (.4) SP: 11th (10.6) RP: 17th (2.6) And for the love of God can someone take the second base job and run with it next year *Fangraphs has two ways to sort by position - primary position (example: all of Duran's WAR is in CF) and by performance "played as ____" (example: Duran WAR is spread out among LF/CF). Given the amount of shifting around in the outfield and middle outfield spots it made sense to me to go with the latter. David Hamilton (SS): .282/.342/.443 (190 PA) David Hamilton (2B): .207/.254/.315 (118 PA) That positional split is helping obscure that middle infield in general was a major problem for the second consecutive season. I think both positions were major problems, rather than SS being okayish and 2B being the worst in baseball. Another way to look at it: David Hamilton was a plus defender at 2B and overall close to a league average hitter. Randomly he hit better while playing SS, but the basic profile is of a solidly above average second baseman, albeit a platoonish one. Pair him with Romy, though, and they're basically fine at that position.
The WAR total happens to be terrible, though, because in addition to Hamilton's offensive split, Grissom and Reyes were absolute nuclear craters in the ~25 games they played there and Valdez hasn't been much better.
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asm18
Veteran
Posts: 2,590
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Post by asm18 on Sept 5, 2024 13:29:59 GMT -5
Is there an easier to way to see where they stand in league ranks by position - on Fangraphs when you sort by primary position (as opposed to "played as ___" numbers) they have Rafaela showing up as both a SS and CF, and Duran as both a LF and CF. So Duran for instance is showing up as both a 6.7 WAR LF and 6.7 WAR CF in the numbers, which doesn't make any sense.
Didn't realize the alternative skewed in a different direction - i.e. David Hamilton hitting better as SS than as a 2B making the 2B numbers are all the more worse for instance
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Sept 5, 2024 13:51:51 GMT -5
It's impossible to quantify, but don't these teams just see value in getting their regulars off their feet while still keeping their bat in the lineup? Only a very small handful of teams have a true masher to plug permanently into the DH spot. Outside of 4-5 guys (Alvarez, Rooker, Pederson, etc.) most DHs are worth like, 1 WAR or less. Is the ability to keep regulars' legs slightly fresher worth more than that? I don't know, but it certainly seems possible. Yup. Its 100% this. The days of a dedicated DH are long gone. (Ortiz etc) Most teams use the DH to give players a day of “rest” off the field. It's weird the Red Sox are using it exclusively for a decent hitter without much pop. I think most teams aren't using it as a dedicated position because most players want to play the field. The DH position cuts into their possible income and HoF potential. There's only so many guys who are good enough offensively to justify it while being truly terrible in the field or just too much of an injury risk. I don't think there's an effort by teams to just use it as a rotation for rest. It's a fortunate alternative. I could be wrong, but as an example I thought I read somewhere Devers didn't want to be a DH.
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Post by soxfansince67 on Sept 5, 2024 14:41:58 GMT -5
Twins won.
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Post by itinerantherb on Sept 5, 2024 14:48:32 GMT -5
Weird, but also understandable given that Yoshida is (a) a good hitter who you want in the line up; (b) a bad fielder who you don't want playing defense; and (c) tied up long-ish term with a until-recently-and-perhaps-still-unmoveable contract. In other words, it's not as though it reflects an affirmative strategic choice about how to best use the DH as choice between a couple not-so-great options.
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asm18
Veteran
Posts: 2,590
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Post by asm18 on Sept 5, 2024 14:56:36 GMT -5
Just for fun, if you had to pick between the Twins or Royals to get swept in their series where they play each other, who would you rather it be. Twins are 6 up in loss column but you play 'em in two weeks. Royals are 5 up in the loss column, but you have the tie-breaker. I think I'd have rather the Twins just because that series vs them if you're down 3-4 games could be fun to pretend you have a chance going into it (I mean... at least for about 20 minutes before Royce Lewis kills a pedestrian on Landsdowne with a homer)
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Sept 5, 2024 15:09:49 GMT -5
Weird, but also understandable given that Yoshida is (a) a good hitter who you want in the line up; (b) a bad fielder who you don't want playing defense; and (c) tied up long-ish term with a until-recently-and-perhaps-still-unmoveable contract. In other words, it's not as though it reflects an affirmative strategic choice about how to best use the DH as choice between a couple not-so-great options. I don't think Yoshida is good enough of a hitter to warrant a full-time DH gig on a big market club though, but he is the best option they have currently. I think the scouting on him was a miss.
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Sept 5, 2024 17:13:07 GMT -5
It's kind of amazing when you look at B-Ref. -7 of the top 9 guys in PAs have an OPS+ of over 100. (Hamilton at 92, CR at 87) 9 of their top 13 have an OPS+ of over 100. -3 of the 5 primary starters have an ERA+ of over 100. (Pivetta is at 96, and Bello is 91.) -The top 8 relief pitchers all have an ERA+ of over 100. All of 'em. And when Alex Cora is given a season to put all that talent together, he somehow manages to get a .500 team that collapses just when it's most important for them to dig in. I'm always amused by those who say "But Alex Cora really just needs an All-Star at every position to have a chance to win." Including Alex Cora. *** By comparison, the Yanks have: -4 of their top 9 hitters by PA over 100 (and the same 4 for their top 13). -4 of their 5 primary starters are over 100 in ERA+. (But not as hugely as you might guess: Stroman 104, Cortez 103, Rodon 100.) -6 of their top 8 relievers are over 100 in ERA+. Very simplistically...it isn't WHAT the team does or doesn't do - it's WHEN they do - or don't do - it The number of times O’Neill, Devers, Casas, Yoshida, Abreu…. have come up with men in scoring position and done absolutely nothing is astounding. They may get 2 or 3 singles in the game, but it is usually not in a clutch at bat. The perfect example is to look at O’Neill’s RBI total vs how many HRs he has. This team has been terribly inconsistent hitting with men in scoring position. I keep a score card for each game, and part includes what base the LOB was on at the conclusion of each inning. The number of runners on second and third base has been unbelievable this year. Failure to drive in runners from second and third is the biggest reason the Red Sox will not be in the playoffs, IMO.
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Post by incandenza on Sept 5, 2024 17:34:55 GMT -5
Very simplistically...it isn't WHAT the team does or doesn't do - it's WHEN they do - or don't do - it The number of times O’Neill, Devers, Casas, Yoshida, Abreu…. have come up with men in scoring position and done absolutely nothing is astounding. They may get 2 or 3 singles in the game, but it is usually not in a clutch at bat. The perfect example is to look at O’Neill’s RBI total vs how many HRs he has. This team has been terribly inconsistent hitting with men in scoring position. I keep a score card for each game, and part includes what base the LOB was on at the conclusion of each inning. The number of runners on second and third base has been unbelievable this year. Failure to drive in runners from second and third is the biggest reason the Red Sox will not be in the playoffs, IMO. Yoshida has been legitimately good in those situations. Almost everyone else on the team has been subpar.
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Post by Darwin's Curve on Sept 5, 2024 19:14:34 GMT -5
Very simplistically...it isn't WHAT the team does or doesn't do - it's WHEN they do - or don't do - it The number of times O’Neill, Devers, Casas, Yoshida, Abreu…. have come up with men in scoring position and done absolutely nothing is astounding. They may get 2 or 3 singles in the game, but it is usually not in a clutch at bat. The perfect example is to look at O’Neill’s RBI total vs how many HRs he has. This team has been terribly inconsistent hitting with men in scoring position. I keep a score card for each game, and part includes what base the LOB was on at the conclusion of each inning. The number of runners on second and third base has been unbelievable this year. Failure to drive in runners from second and third is the biggest reason the Red Sox will not be in the playoffs, IMO. Why assume it's luck? (Serious question.) What makes you think this isn't the natural consequence of their batting strategy?
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Sept 6, 2024 13:41:51 GMT -5
Like Jody Reid and Reid Nichols I was a huge Glen Hoffman fan as a little kid. I also loved Spike Owen far more than he probably deserved. It’s funny how as a kid you don’t look at the game the same way. True enough. The last one I had was Brain Daubach, the Mets keeping him down in the minors with the Bobby Bonds esque numbers was borderline criminal. He crossed the lines and was a scab but I dare anyone in his shoes dare declare they would have done different. Brian was the second Red Sox in History to have the first four years of his career with 20+ homers and 70 RBi's the other being Ted Williams. Just saying.
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