9/17-9/19 Red Sox @ Rays Series Thread

That's fair, but it seemed to be what helped get DD fired. DD has been an excellent GM and was here as well. He made a high priced mistake with Sale which seemed kind of obvious not to make. They've still been relatively low in payroll for a few years now. They were barely over 2 years ago and reset last year and went lower this year. The Story signing felt like a way to cut salary at SS by investing a year early.

I'll be more than happy with Henry if he returns to spending. This is the last year I'm giving him any benefit of the doubt. There's zero excuse to not sign Corbin Burnes.

For 86 years (for me 1971 - 2004) the Red Sox spent, but not enough to get the right players to win a WS. Then came Manny Ramírez, Pedro Martinez, Curt Schilling, David Price, Chris Sale and other top tier free agents. That ultimately pushes teams over the top and wins World Series! Yes, 2004, 2007, and 2018 contained the best of the best! The timing is vital to winning….2003 was close but lacked a 2nd ace Pedro but no Schilling, 2016 had Price and Ortiz but lacked Sale, 2017 had Price and Sale but lacked Ortiz and JD had not arrived yet. My point….add the last piece or two when winning look realistic. It did not in 2024. (2013 really was great, but really a fluke…3 horrible years surrounded by a 97 win, WS utilizing 2nd tier FAs). So by all means spend on an ace THIS off season. Supplement with someone who is great NOW…no stale bread….no Davi Price-ish pitcher who was good 3 years ago, because the fans whined. Get the FA pitcher who will come to Boston to break our five year curse Schilling-ish). If they spent earlier we would now have stale bread, moldy yogurt….2017-2019 Sale was better than Sale 2020-2024. Spend and trade wisely as our window is starting to open with fresh farm raise ingredients.

You still have to play in Free Agency though. Are all or these players overpaid relative to their performance? Yes. But, where would the Red Sox have gotten David Price’s performance from in those years? They didn’t have minors pitching that could have taken his spot, and trading for someone would have cost them valuable prospects, as well. The Red Sox shouldn’t be worried about overpaying for free agents, they print money, especially when they’re interesting and good

Edit: Also worth mentioning that there are other examples of players far overachieving their contract. Kevin Guasman being the most obvious answer. Top pitching signs will probably be losers on Fangraphs money valuation tool. That doesn’t mean it’s a bad signing though

Another thing is that didn't even look like a bad class by any means going into it. The top four there all looked better than any starter in last year's free agent class, I would say, and probably this coming FA class as well.

Totally agree! I really hate signing free agents (even our own). I was VERY much against re-signing Bogaerts, Sale, and a whole host of others even when the price was reasonable as down hill side of 30 plays into more injuries and weaker results. There are exceptions like DH Ortiz, Koji was already old and threw slow… Farm system 1) controllability, 2) low cost, 3) right side of 30….

The Red Sox tried to supplement with Giolito who had a history of no medical issues, so they tried to fix their prior mistakes.

Would be pretty stupid not to QO him. Perfect example of how a larger market team can leverage its financial advantage. Almost certain comp pick plus increased leverage on getting him on a two-year deal if they want that, and in the unlikely case he accepts, you get a great player on a reasonable one year deal.

This sounds like a guy who has zero interest in re-signing Tyler O’Neill. Really not clear to me where the right handed pop is going to be gotten? Alex Bergman, massive pass. Big trade for Brent Rooker? Sounds expensive and it’s another outfielder.

Right? The team has some depth. Bello, Houck, Crawford, Fitts, Criswell, Giolito all in the mix. What they lack is high upside starting pitching. They need at least one acquisition of a Max Fried/ Corbin Burnes type, or a trade for someone like Logan Gilbert. I’d do both, and then the rotation is VERY deep and good.

I read it as they may think Bello, Houck, Crawford are their frontline guys - with this season being the transition year of them learning how to go a full season in Houck/Crawford's case or to try to figure out who you are in Bello's case. Unless they're teaching a different definition of the word "depth" at Yale, that would not seem to describe Corbin Burnes and co.

I appreciate the lowering of expectations at least, instead of promises that involve car metaphors

I think it's important to note off the bat, so people don't get defensive about their arguments, that your point is absolutely correct. . .except that the issue isn't only about spending in free agency.  

It's drafting, developing, trading and spending wisely in free agency that gets you the right players to win a WS.

If we consider 2004, to those names you have to add David Ortiz, who was given an audition along with Jeremy Giamibi.  You have to add talent developed and retained by the organization: Nomar, Nixon, Varitek, Lowe, even Youkilis. You have to add waiver selection Bronson Arroyo and snapping up Millar for cash.  And trading for Scott Williamson.  And the relatively unsexy FA signings of Timlin, Kapler, Pokey, Bellhorn, and Daubach.  They had previously traded for and extended Embree.

And of course, we traded for Pedro before extending him, as we traded for Schilling, as we even later traded for Sale.  

Our only "big name" FAs on the team by the end of the year were: Manny, Damon, and Foulke.  

(And I think Wakefield, technically?  Or was he always just extended?)

But regardless, those 3 guys don't get you a WS unless you have already wisely built a core you can add to as you go.  (It was in the aggregate an expensive core, but it wasn't like it was simply purchased on the open market as they went.)

So it's not simply a matter of spending on the latest FA darling (like Montgomery last year) to put any team over the top.  

But yeah, FA is a tool in the GM's bag, for sure.  

and there were no "salary caps" in either FA or the draft back then.. SO the comparisons are a bit disingenuous

Twins walked off in Cleveland. With a win tonight, Red Sox could be back 3.