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Predicting The 2025 Opening Day Roster
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Post by melvinhoggs on Oct 4, 2024 12:45:13 GMT -5
It's true that Crochet's track record has been limited by injury and, this year, an innings limit. But he was truly excellent in 32 starts--far better than his ERA, in fact. And he's only 25! That makes him a very different proposition that the three top pitchers on the free agent market. So yes, as long as he was amenable to a reasonable extension, I'd rather the Sox trade Mayer for a 25-year-old true ace, even one with his spotty injury history, than sign Burnes or Snell or Fried to a seven- or eight-year deal. (And admittedly, I'm not as high on Mayer as most here.) Would much rather just spend the money and no to me crochet wasn't excellent in 32 starts if he didn't pitch more than 4 innings after June. We still have no clue if he can sustain an actual starting pitcher workload. Which is why I'm not lining up to give up a top 30 prospect for him which all the big 4 are at this point. To play devil's advocate, this does seem like part of the reason why people want to target him in a trade. Uncertainty about health/workload drives the price down. If he was 25, putting up multiple 180 inning seasons at 5+ WAR, you'd be talking about a package involving multiple top 100 prospects mixed with major league talent. Even with the extreme limiting of innings in the second half, he ended up like 6th in WAR for pitchers in the entire MLB. That's like, Skenes and Glasnow level of per-inning talent. Sometimes you want to take a high-risk high-reward swing in the hopes that you crush it – and I can see why it's tempting in this offseason in particular. There's a good amount of warts on many of the available FA pitchers. |
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Post by ematz1423 on Oct 4, 2024 12:50:34 GMT -5
Would much rather just spend the money and no to me crochet wasn't excellent in 32 starts if he didn't pitch more than 4 innings after June. We still have no clue if he can sustain an actual starting pitcher workload. Which is why I'm not lining up to give up a top 30 prospect for him which all the big 4 are at this point. To play devil's advocate, this does seem like part of the reason why people want to target him in a trade. Uncertainty about health/workload drives the price down. If he was 25, putting up multiple 180 inning seasons at 5+ WAR, you'd be talking about a package involving multiple top 100 prospects mixed with major league talent. Even with the extreme limiting of innings in the second half, he ended up like 6th in WAR for pitchers in the entire MLB. That's like, Skenes and Glasnow level of per-inning talent. Sometimes you want to take a high-risk high-reward swing in the hopes that you crush it – and I can see why it's tempting in this offseason in particular. There's a good amount of warts on many of the available FA pitchers. I'm not saying don't trade for him under any circumstance I just don't want to trade any of the big 4 to get him. If you can get him with some package the likes of Arias, Cespedes, Bleis, Sandlin, Perales, Fitts, Tolle then go for it, not saying trade every one of those guys for him but maybe 3 or 4. I just feel like giving up 6 years of control for any of Anthony, Mayer, Campbell or Teel for 2 of Crochet is a bridge to far for me as I think using WAR that in the end those 2 years of Crochet are not going to be all that close to 6 years of any of those four and all four are knocking on the door to be in the majors right now. I'd trade guys like Arias, Cespedes, Bleis in a heartbeat to get a good pitcher as they're further away and IMO this Sox team could be outstanding sooner than later with the right moves. |
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Post by melvinhoggs on Oct 4, 2024 13:03:27 GMT -5
To play devil's advocate, this does seem like part of the reason why people want to target him in a trade. Uncertainty about health/workload drives the price down. If he was 25, putting up multiple 180 inning seasons at 5+ WAR, you'd be talking about a package involving multiple top 100 prospects mixed with major league talent. Even with the extreme limiting of innings in the second half, he ended up like 6th in WAR for pitchers in the entire MLB. That's like, Skenes and Glasnow level of per-inning talent. Sometimes you want to take a high-risk high-reward swing in the hopes that you crush it – and I can see why it's tempting in this offseason in particular. There's a good amount of warts on many of the available FA pitchers. I'm not saying don't trade for him under any circumstance I just don't want to trade any of the big 4 to get him. If you can get him with some package the likes of Arias, Cespedes, Bleis, Sandlin, Perales, Fitts, Tolle then go for it, not saying trade every one of those guys for him but maybe 3 or 4. I just feel like giving up 6 years of control for any of Anthony, Mayer, Campbell or Teel for 2 of Crochet is a bridge to far for me as I think using WAR that in the end those 2 years of Crochet are not going to be all that close to 6 years of any of those four and all four are knocking on the door to be in the majors right now. I'd trade guys like Arias, Cespedes, Bleis in a heartbeat to get a good pitcher as they're further away and IMO this Sox team could be outstanding sooner than later with the right moves. I guess what I'm saying is that one of the "big four" (not named Anthony) feels like the compromise sweet spot.
If Crochet had more of a track record, that wouldn't cut it. Without any of those four included, the White Sox politely hang up the phone and tend to better offers elsewhere or just hold him until the trade deadline. If Chicago asks for more than one of them, it's an obvious no from the Red Sox.
I'm not saying you're wrong for preferring the FA route, but it's tempting because it has the allure of getting a top-10-upside pitcher for a non-top-10-pitcher price.
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Post by redsoxpride34 on Oct 4, 2024 16:15:16 GMT -5
The more I think about it, the more I want no part of the big free agent pitchers. Crochet is far more intriguing and is only 25. That a contending braves organization is willing to let fried walk should tell you something. He feels a lot like the Trevor Story of pitchers. Burnes was going to be my main target but the underlying numbers are quite concerning. Even more so given how much he is going to cost. Of the free agent crop I'd take a gamble on Shane Bieber. I'd also love to add Roki Sasaki if he is posted.
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Post by bellhorndingers21 on Oct 4, 2024 17:16:12 GMT -5
The more I think about it, the more I want no part of the big free agent pitchers. Crochet is far more intriguing and is only 25. That a contending braves organization is willing to let fried walk should tell you something. He feels a lot like the Trevor Story of pitchers. Burnes was going to be my main target but the underlying numbers are quite concerning. Even more so given how much he is going to cost. Of the free agent crop I'd take a gamble on Shane Bieber. I'd also love to add Roki Sasaki if he is posted. The Braves have Sale, Lopez, Schwellenbach, Smith Schwaver, Haldrep and Strider coming back mid season. They have the luxury of not getting into a bidding war for Fried. Don't over think it. |
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Post by ematz1423 on Oct 4, 2024 17:25:17 GMT -5
The more I think about it, the more I want no part of the big free agent pitchers. Crochet is far more intriguing and is only 25. That a contending braves organization is willing to let fried walk should tell you something. He feels a lot like the Trevor Story of pitchers. Burnes was going to be my main target but the underlying numbers are quite concerning. Even more so given how much he is going to cost. Of the free agent crop I'd take a gamble on Shane Bieber. I'd also love to add Roki Sasaki if he is posted. The Braves have Sale, Lopez, Schwellenbach, Smith Schwaver, Haldrep and Strider coming back mid season. They have the luxury of not getting into a bidding war for Fried. Don't over think it. They also have a pretty high payroll as is and they aren't the dodgers, Mets or Yankees with unlimited money. They can't re-sign everyone. Fried obviously has risk in signing him but as I've said I very much prefer they just spend money instead of prospects to acquire a good pitcher. |
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Post by finaliz3d on Oct 4, 2024 18:10:49 GMT -5
The more I think about it, the more I want no part of the big free agent pitchers. Crochet is far more intriguing and is only 25. That a contending braves organization is willing to let fried walk should tell you something. He feels a lot like the Trevor Story of pitchers. Burnes was going to be my main target but the underlying numbers are quite concerning. Even more so given how much he is going to cost. Of the free agent crop I'd take a gamble on Shane Bieber. I'd also love to add Roki Sasaki if he is posted. I have no problems with Fried, but yeah I agree that I'd rather see a trade. If we're looking at top targets to me the best guys from less than stellar teams are: Crochet (obviously, though he's a bit risky for my taste), Steele (great, a little risky, but great), Webb (no risks whatsoever, the only question is if the Giants would actually give him up), Kirby (some slight risk with splits, but I'd be happy with him, although again don't know if they'd give him up). Probably a couple others, I've heard Alcantara... I don't really want Alcantara, had a bad season in 2023 and then missed all of 2024 with TJ... would be better than doing nothing, I guess... Bieber is interesting if cheap but his strikeout numbers were way down in 2023 and then he got hurt in 2024. As long as he's cheap or like a one year or so contract. |
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Oct 4, 2024 19:01:51 GMT -5
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 5, 2024 0:33:12 GMT -5
I think if the Sox signed one of the top pitchers in the market it would likely be Fried.
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asm18
Veteran
Posts: 2,793
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Post by asm18 on Oct 5, 2024 2:59:46 GMT -5
I'm not saying don't trade for him [Crochet] under any circumstance I just don't want to trade any of the big 4 to get him. If you can get him with some package the likes of Arias, Cespedes, Bleis, Sandlin, Perales, Fitts, Tolle then go for it, not saying trade every one of those guys for him but maybe 3 or 4. I just feel like giving up 6 years of control for any of Anthony, Mayer, Campbell or Teel for 2 of Crochet is a bridge to far for me as I think using WAR that in the end those 2 years of Crochet are not going to be all that close to 6 years of any of those four and all four are knocking on the door to be in the majors right now. I'd trade guys like Arias, Cespedes, Bleis in a heartbeat to get a good pitcher as they're further away and IMO this Sox team could be outstanding sooner than later with the right moves. I know we’ve had a lot of discussion about the Big 4 to this stage, but Montgomery is a top 100 prospect, Arias is on the periphery (or just inside the Top 100 for MLB Pipeline) and Bleis is certainly up there when it comes to high upside guys. Like it’s wild to the extent that a package with those three guys (as an example) both 1) lets you keep the Big Four, and 2) is more attractive than what the team has had to offer over the last few years (see the ten thousand Nick Yorke + Blaze Jordan trades since like 2020) |
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Oct 5, 2024 7:13:37 GMT -5
For me, if we re-sign O'Neil (there's mutual interest), there's no room for both Anthony and Abreu as starters.
Also, Campbell then becomes a more likely second baseman which means there's not room for Campbell and Grissom as starters.
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Post by willacky on Oct 5, 2024 7:21:50 GMT -5
It seems that starter Tomoyuki Sugano from Japan will come to the majors this offseason via FA. His command is really good, might be the best in the NPB and his slider is also great. His overall states in NPB is similar to what Imanaga and Senga were but not quite Darvish level. Could be an interesting back up option if they failled to sign Fried/Burnes.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Oct 5, 2024 8:27:29 GMT -5
If the Sox can negotiate a reasonable contract with Crochet, I wouldn't be unhappy with one of Campbell or Grissom, one of Priester or Fitts and one of Bleis or Cespedes.
If he's out of line with contract demands, I'd go one of Priester or Fitts an one of Cespedes or Bleis then go year by year for arbitration dollars.
I doubt if the White Sox would get better offers than that.
A rotation of
Houck
Bello
Crawford
Giolito
Crochet
would be fine with me.
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Post by ematz1423 on Oct 5, 2024 8:32:58 GMT -5
If the Sox can negotiate a reasonable contract with Crochet, I wouldn't be unhappy with one of Campbell or Grissom, one of Priester or Fitts and one of Bleis or Cespedes. If he's out of line with contract demands, I'd go one of Priester or Fitts an one of Cespedes or Bleis then go year by year for arbitration dollars. I doubt if the White Sox would get better offers than that. A rotation of Houck Bello Crawford Giolito Crochet would be fine with me. I've made my stance known in regards to trading any of the big 4 but in this scenario why even bother saying one of Campbell or grissom? Campbell has way more trade value than grissom does so the white Sox would be stupid to not select Campbell. Also what is a reasonable extension amount to you? I get the age factor and all that but let's say crochet would sign for 20-25M a year for 6-7 seasons. I personally don't see dealing a package including Campbell for crochet is a better move to the sox than signing fried for a similar contract. In my mind Campbell+Fried at 25M>crochet at 20-25M. |
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Post by pappyman99 on Oct 5, 2024 8:34:31 GMT -5
Alright I’ll try my play at this I’m sure people will have mixed feelings.
1. Despite the postering from the GM of SEA, trade Duran for Kirby.
2. Trade Yoshida, there will be takers but definitely no great return, but no eating salary either. Maybe someone like Fitts comes back.
3. Sign Soto, 11 years at $45 million per year. He would be 36 when the contract ended, he is an amazing hitter. We would be legit contenders for the next decade.
4. Trade people on the peripherals, mainly guys like Hamilton, Sogard, probably Meidroth as well.
5. Resign Martin at 1 year
Rotation
Kirby
Houck
Giolito
Crawford
Bello
Casas 1B
Grissom / Campbell 2B / DH
Soto DH/LF
Devers 3B
Story SS
Abreu / Refsnyder RF
Wong/Teel C
Anthony/Rafaela CF
DH spot rotating of Soto, Grissom, Campbell, etc
Still doesn’t solve right handed bat much and still not sure what to do with Maher. Whitlock to the Pen
Odds of happening … 1.2% because I’m optimistic
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Oct 5, 2024 9:03:24 GMT -5
If the Sox can negotiate a reasonable contract with Crochet, I wouldn't be unhappy with one of Campbell or Grissom, one of Priester or Fitts and one of Bleis or Cespedes. If he's out of line with contract demands, I'd go one of Priester or Fitts an one of Cespedes or Bleis then go year by year for arbitration dollars. I doubt if the White Sox would get better offers than that. A rotation of Houck Bello Crawford Giolito Crochet would be fine with me. I've made my stance known in regards to trading any of the big 4 but in this scenario why even bother saying one of Campbell or grissom? Campbell has way more trade value than grissom does so the white Sox would be stupid to not select Campbell. Also what is a reasonable extension amount to you? I get the age factor and all that but let's say crochet would sign for 20-25M a year for 6-7 seasons. I personally don't see dealing a package including Campbell for crochet is a better move to the sox than signing fried for a similar contract. In my mind Campbell+Fried at 25M>crochet at 20-25M. I didn't say the White Sox pick the choices, I'm saying if the contract price was OK for the Red Sox then I'd be OK with the Red Sox putting a package like that together. Crochet's salary should be commensurate to what other pitchers with similar circumstances got. It's not a let's say thing. |
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Post by awalkinthepark on Oct 5, 2024 9:12:31 GMT -5
I don't know if this means they should trade for Crochet, but I will say that I am much more confident in the Red Sox ability to find another Roman Anthony, Kristian Campbell, Marcelo Mayer or Kyle Teel than I am that they can find someone of Crochet's caliber. And if the roles were reversed, and the Red Sox had Crochet and another team had the big 4, I don't think there is a single Red Sox fan that would be clamoring for them to make that trade.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Oct 5, 2024 9:15:58 GMT -5
The other factor here is that Campbell is unlikely to break into our crowded outfield which means that only one of Campbell or Grissom is likely to be in the lineup at any given time.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Oct 5, 2024 9:35:05 GMT -5
I've made my stance known in regards to trading any of the big 4 but in this scenario why even bother saying one of Campbell or grissom? Campbell has way more trade value than grissom does so the white Sox would be stupid to not select Campbell. Also what is a reasonable extension amount to you? I get the age factor and all that but let's say crochet would sign for 20-25M a year for 6-7 seasons. I personally don't see dealing a package including Campbell for crochet is a better move to the sox than signing fried for a similar contract. In my mind Campbell+Fried at 25M>crochet at 20-25M. I didn't say the White Sox pick the choices, I'm saying if the contract price was OK for the Red Sox then I'd be OK with the Red Sox putting a package like that together. Crochet's salary should be commensurate to what other pitchers with similar circumstances got. It's not a let's say thing. I think that the point was less the White Sox pick and more than you grouped Campbell and Grissom when those two have very differing levels of value right now |
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Post by willacky on Oct 5, 2024 10:34:22 GMT -5
I'm interested in trading for Willi Castro of the Twins. He has been consistent with the bat and is a great defender at short. Can play multiple positions so he wouldn't be an issue when Mayer came to the league. He'll be FA eligible after 2026.
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Post by julyanmorley on Oct 5, 2024 13:56:01 GMT -5
Brewers fans all expect Devin Williams to be traded with 1/10.5 left on his deal and they need a 3B. Pretty sure you could get him for Chase Meidroth if that's a thing you wanted to do
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Post by chaimtime on Oct 5, 2024 14:28:50 GMT -5
Brewers fans all expect Devin Williams to be traded with 1/10.5 left on his deal and they need a 3B. Pretty sure you could get him for Chase Meidroth if that's a thing you wanted to do I’ve also seen some talk that St. Louis might not want to pay Ryan Helsley’s arbitration salary. Would Chaim give him up for a few low-level favorites of his? |
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Post by willacky on Oct 5, 2024 18:19:57 GMT -5
Astros could be a good trade partner. Everyone's talking about the Mariners but the Astros too have great young controllable pitchers like Hunter Brown and Ronel Blanco.
They have holes in position players especially if they failled to sign Bregman.
They also have Franber Valdez who's FA after next season.
Chase Meidroth seems like a guy they'd love to have.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Oct 5, 2024 21:22:01 GMT -5
I didn't say the White Sox pick the choices, I'm saying if the contract price was OK for the Red Sox then I'd be OK with the Red Sox putting a package like that together. Crochet's salary should be commensurate to what other pitchers with similar circumstances got. It's not a let's say thing. I think that the point was less the White Sox pick and more than you grouped Campbell and Grissom when those two have very differing levels of value right now I'm not an insider so I would want the best deal the Sox could get but I'd be OK with any combination that got the job done, RELATIVE TO THE CONTRACT. I left it open ended intentionally. I also wouldn't be upset if Grissom was our second baseman (or Campbell) either one is fine with me. A portion of Campbell's value is versatility. Starting second baseman reduces that component. Grissom's September showed what he's capable of any why the Sox traded for him. |
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Post by finaliz3d on Oct 5, 2024 21:23:51 GMT -5
Brewers fans all expect Devin Williams to be traded with 1/10.5 left on his deal and they need a 3B. Pretty sure you could get him for Chase Meidroth if that's a thing you wanted to do I’ve also seen some talk that St. Louis might not want to pay Ryan Helsley’s arbitration salary. Would Chaim give him up for a few low-level favorites of his? I don't think either would do it for Meidroth, if there's any chance of that or even if it's Meidroth and some lower ranking prospects, I'd do it in a heartbeat. |
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