Predicting The 2025 Opening Day Roster

Even before that quote I've been under the impression that this will be an aggressive offseason for the Sox and after reading that it reinforces my thought. I really don't understand some on here when they say they expect the Sox to basically do very little this offseason. They have basically every avenue to go out and make moves to try and improve this team during the offseason between the payroll flexibility and the trade chips they have. I expect the opening day roster to look rather different one way or another from the team that was out there the last month or so of 2024. 

I don’t think anybody is denying that Crochet is very talented and would make the team better. The issue is, if you’re going to make a splash trade and give up one (or more) of the top prospects, are you comfortable doing that for a guy with an extensive injury history and a very limited track record as a starter, even at the college level?

I wouldn’t be upset if he ended up in Boston, but I don’t think he’s at the top of my list of targets. All depends on what it will actually take to get him, I suppose.

I do think the Red Sox will finally have a busy offseason.

Honestly I dont know how long they can keep doing what they're doing and not wreck the brand. They have already become irrelevant over the past 3 years.

They kind of HAVE to do something. Them being 12th in spending is unacceptable. I think theyll spend to the luxury tax limit, but the question I have is how high will they be willing to go?

Would they sign Burnes or Fried or seriously go after Snell if he opts out? I dont see the Sox as players for Soto, but we'll see.

Breslow keeps talking about bringing in RH power and trading from depth.

I cant shake the feeling that Mayer will be traded and that they will choose the already paid for RH hitting veteran Story as their SS over the remainder of his contract.

I think Mayer being used in a deal for a pitcher is more likely than spending big bucks on a starter, but at this point I think everything is on the table. This is a key offseason.

Screw it up an make bad choices it could really set the Sox back for years. Make good choices and it could position the Sox for a run, kind of what Theo's 2002-2003 offseason did for the Sox going forward.

But they know they cant have another low impact offseason. Theyve done that 3 years in a row and it has shown in the standings

Here’s a hot take to ponder: are starting pitchers even that important now?

The days of Pedro, Randy Johnson, Curt Schilling, even Halliday/Sabathia are long over. Your best pitchers are throwing 180-190 innings now tops over 30-32 starts, and it’s like half of the, are injured or fatigued come postseason. If your upper threshold on pitching WAR is 5-6 (Skubal this year is 5.9 fWAR), then it’s harder to justify trading top talent. Obviously we should trade excessive value to get a Skubal, but there are very few pitchers today who fall under that.

This is a classical false dilemma, which is responsible for trades like the Shelby Miller trade or Erik Bedard trade that DD was good at avoiding. When you pay top dollar for questionable assets (either lesser talent or durability questions) you end up with a skewed risk reward framework where you lose more way more than you win.

The Royals have won 2 games this postseason where their starter went 4 innings. Not saying they’re the perfect model, but it’s better to give up less talent and get someone like Erceg than overpay significantly for a starter who isn’t quite Skubal but is the next best option.

I don’t know if it’s fair to say that top prospects have a “sky-high bust rate” these days. I’m looking at a list of #1 prospects from the last 30 years and like 80% of them are total studs. I’m sure expanding the pool to even top-10 prospects raises that bust rate significantly, but I still think it’s more likely than not that three of the big four have at least solid careers, and at least one of them is probably going to be great.

273 pages of "Hey they have money to spend and they have a young core developing or ready to contribute - this should be a big offseason!" can also be found at: forum.soxprospects.com/thread/7010/2024-free-agency

Alex Speier had a more optimistic inference on the offseason (www.bostonglobe.com/2024/10/07/sports/red-sox-offseason-free-agents/?event=event25) that was really encouraging and worth a read. Like I believe they can go out and have a productive and fun winter... but I can't with a straight face after last winter be like, "Oh yeah, they got this!"

Man I hope so

That is a good catch from Speier about the rhetoric about winning the division. There really is a categorical difference between how teams fighting for a wild card act and how teams fighting for a bye act. In this playoff format nobody except AJ Preller ever invests future value into a wild card contender.

One year ago shooting for the division would have been reckless. The projections had them tied for 4th and far behind the top two teams.  I could see them starting 2025 behind Baltimore, roughly tied with NY and with Toronto and Tampa not looking likely to compete.

"Certainly, there will and should be an element of “seeing is believing” when it comes to the Red Sox taking a more aggressive stance on upgrades motivated by the coming year rather than a more distant future. That said, there were notable shifts in the tone of the remarks at the team’s end-of-season press conference that pointed to a more ambitious offseason":

-EYE ON THE DIVISION (as opposed to just being "competitive")

-MATURITY OF THE CORE

-FRONT OFFICE STABILITY

Again this is all great. But if they do stupid things again like offer 2 years/26 mil to Shota Imanaga... 

Well sure, but that brings us back to taiwansox's original question: how valuable are the pitchers we're talking about? Just looking at WAR, you'd be absolutely foolish to trade Jarren Duran (for example) for one of the SEA guys, but that idea gets floated a lot - presumably because they're "Top of the Rotation Pitchers" and you need a "Top of the Rotation Pitcher" to be a great team. But is that still true when teams get less value out of these fringy #1/#2 types than ever before?