Predicting The 2025 Opening Day Roster

I will continue to bang the drum for Jack Flaherty. He's not a lefty, but I feel like he's perfect for this team. It also allows you to include kutter, fitts, Quinn in a package for Crochet if you wanted to. Fits your mold of more like a 2 than an ace, but is still an impactful addition. He will also not cost $200 mil to sign.

In parsing CB’s comments, I think it’s worth calling out what it seems he is saying, and what he isn’t. He commits to being more “aggressive” in roster building, but he’s not saying they’ll be stupid. Trading two top 100 guys for a TOR starter, as some on this board have suggested, makes no sense for this team. That qualifies as stupid, not aggressive. If they were a starter away from being a sure-fire upper echelon contender, maybe you justify a trade like that; but we aren’t there. And remember, ownership hired CB1 to implement a more value-driven approach to team building. CB2 seems committed to that course, as well. After five years of mediocrity, we’re finally on the cusp of having a foundation that will enable that model. I don’t think they’re gonna to throw that goal in the trash and go back to the spend-like-there's-no-tomorrow approach. That said, I do think it signals a willingness to go beyond $241M, as long as we don’t do it by saddling the team with bloated long-term contracts to guys already on the other side of 30.

The biggest failure modes in 2024 (hence our biggest gaps to fill heading into next season), in order of importance IMO were: bullpen; defense (esp C and SS); hitting against LHP; lack of viable depth (1B, SS, SP, RP, and though it didn’t hurt us too much, 3B); starting pitching. What does aggressive look like in addressing these needs?

Bullpen
Losing Jansen and Martin are holes that need to be filled, and who knows what production we’ll get from guys like Hendricks, Whitlock, and Fulmer coming off injuries. There’s a lot of risk in that group. There are several options in the FA market, and trades for relievers are always options. This is where we can be more aggressive in dealing from mid-tier prospect depth. I’d rather have 3-4 new relievers and keep guys like Winc, Guerrero, and Penrod in AAA as depth (I think our AAA depth is pretty bad). Total AAV added: $20M

Defense
Story should dramatically improve IF defense—not just SS, but 3B, as well. Problem is, if he goes down (does anyone feel comfortable relying on his health?), do we have an answer? We see how that impacted us this year. More on that in the depth section. As for C, this is about the most obvious need, but one that can be addressed fairly easily. We just have to win the Carson Kelly sweepstakes (if there is one). How much are we talking about anyway? $6M AAV? Two, possibly three years? An aggressive team doesn’t blink at that for the immense value it would bring. AAV added: $6M

Hitting against LHP
This is where the youngins start to factor in. Campbell and Anthony (despite being LHH) both excel vs LHP (RHP, too). Grissom, interestingly, has actually had reverse splits throughout his career, so he’s not as much of an answer here. I think it’s quite possible, and consistent with CB2’s comments, that both make the OD roster. Slot KC at 2B (primarily) and RA in RF. That would be aggressive.  Also, I don’t see the downside of offering TON a QO, as long as there’s a willingness to go over LTT. If he accepts, what’s $21M on a one-year deal? Trade Rafaela and install Duran in CF. If he rejects, we keep CR in CF. Potential AAV added: $14M (if offset by CR trade)

Depth
First order of business, trade Yoshida. He offers no versatility, and his bat isn’t so compelling that it justifies a full-time DH role. Even if we have to eat some money, that’s a no brainer. This would open up another obvious FA option: Carlos Santana. I know he’s 39, but he continues to be productive at the plate, especially vs LHP, and he remains one of the better defensive 1B, so he would be a much better depth option at that position. A hybrid DH/1B who still hits for power while keeping K% relatively low, is a much better use of the Yoshida slot. And he’s at the point where he’s going year to year. AAV added: $5M

A defense-first FA option for 2B/SS/3B would be Kevin Newman. He should be available for a relatively modest 1-2 yr commitment. He’d be a solid depth option for SS in case Story misses time. Not much with the bat, but defense at SS is paramount, and it’s not likely Story will be lighting the world on fire at the plate anyway. I’d hate for Mayer to be counted on to be Story’s backup in 2025. Hate to force a promotion before the prospect is ready. A one-year deal with the likes of Newman takes pressure off and pushes Romy or Hamilton back to AAA for even more depth. AAV added: $3M

Starting Pitching
I don’t think starting pitching was a huge problem in 2024, aside from very little depth and impact from fatigue as some of our SPs blew well past prior IP totals, both of which problems should be mitigated in 2025.  Of course we have to replace Pivetta, but I just don’t think there’s a TOR option available via trade without it qualifying as stupid (as mentioned above), and I don’t like the idea of signing one of the top FAs to a $30M per year contract into perpetuity, especially since they’re all nearing the end of their prime. Just bad business.

If they can swing it, and if he’s amenable to going back to a large market AL East team, I like the idea of trading for Gray. He may not be a #1, but figures to be a solid #2. And STL looks to be in the market for offloading salary. A Yoshida-for-Gray trade, as others have suggested, kills two birds with one stone. Given the price tag attached to Gray, I think he could be had at a cost that isn’t too painful. This feels like a move that a team that wants to be aggressive without jeopardizing their farm would make.

Outside of this, it shouldn’t be unreasonable to expect pitching to improve year over year as our young arms are still developing (e.g., Bello, Crawford). Combined with the force multiplier of having a strong defensive catcher that should raise all boats, along with adding Gray to replace Pivetta, that could provide far more aggregate value at a more reasonable cost than ponying up the prosect haul for Crochet (who scares me regardless) or another arm of his ilk, or the $200M+/6-8yr commitment for a 30+ year old FA.

Lineup
LHHs:  Casas, Devers, Anthony, Duran, Hamilton*
RHHs: Kelly, Campbell, Story, TON or CR, Santana (DH), Wong*, Newman*, Refsnyder*)
* bench

CBT Payroll (all in, including medical, MILB cost, bonus/incentives)
$231M (CR in, TON out), or $245M (TON in, CR out)

26-Man Moves
Yoshida (trade)
Rafaela (trade, if TON comes back)
Abreu (AAA, but realistically, one of the five OF, including Abreu, will likely be on the IL throughout the season, so he'll be on the active roster most of the time)
Romy (AAA)

Was listening to the SP Podcast yesterday and it was sort of anxiety inducing listening to Ian make the case that they might need to find up to 5 new bullpen pieces by next year. Slaten and Guerrero were seen as locks, Hendriks will be there but you don't know what you'll get after his surgery (same with Whitlock), and then... *shrug emoji*

I don't usually like diving into bullpen acquisitions because "Relievers Are Weird" but these are the top Free Agents by WAR over the last two years (via MLB.com/Fangraphs):

Tanner Scott (30 years old, 4.5 WAR)
Jeff Hoffman (32, 3.6)
David Robertson (40, 3.1) -- mutual option
Aroldis Chapman (37, 2.9)
Clay Holmes (32, 2.8)
Kenley Jansen (37, 2.5)
Chris Martin (39, 2.4)
Carlos Estévez (32, 2.1)
Shawn Armstrong (34, 2.0)
Dylan Floro (34, 1.8)
Kirby Yates (38, 1.8)
José Leclerc (31, 1.7)

See more at: www.mlb.com/news/2024-25-mlb-free-agents-by-position

Can't say I feel super great about 1) the premium options after from Tanner Scott, 2) that you could stand to lose two of the better options available.

In regards to the bullpen, I like the idea of trying to make a trade for a guy like Devin Williams in MIL, Helsley in STL, or pick your favorite good RP starting to make decent money on a team looking to shed salary. On top of that sign a guy like Tanner Scott, Scott + theoretical high leverage RP trade to go along with the guys in house could be a good BP. I'd like to try and get one more BP arm since two BP arms are just replacing Martin/Jansen but if they think Hendriks can be close to what he once was as well as Slaten staying healthy and whatever they plan to do with Whitlock that sounds like a BP upgrade to me.

I know he is cheap and affordable but I do not want Josh Winckowski pitching important innings next year. He's fine as bullpen depth, but he cannot miss bats at all. Every single time he came in games this season I wanted to turn the game off.

We have a decent basis for the bullpen next year with Weissert, Whitlock, Penrod, Guerrero, Slaten, and Hendriks. Maybe Fulmer too? Definitely need to add a couple arms though. Preferably a high leverage option and a lefty.

AJ Minter and Wandy Peralta (if he opts out) are the main free agent lefties. Obviously Tanner Scott too, but he would classify more as a high leverage reliever than someone who purely pitches in lefty lanes.

Andres Munoz, Ryan Helsley, Jhoan Duran, and Kyle Finnegan could all possibly be available by trade. Would be tough to pry Jhoan Duran from the Twins but he's hitting arbitration next year and if they are slashing payroll, he could be on the table if we also take on more money in a salary relief trade. Cardinals slashing payroll and Chaim's familiarity with our farm system could allow us to better match up in a trade for Helsley though.

I don't know that I agree with the bolded statement.  Whitlock, Hendriks, and Fulmer are coming off significant arm injuries.  I don't think we should be relying on those guys getting back to normal.  Maybe they will, and if so, fantastic.  Just very high risk.  Weissert should be in AAA.  Penrod, too.  Guerrero looked great in his cup of coffee, but he's so new, who knows.  And Winc, as you said, should be further down the AAA depth chart.  That leaves Slaten and Criswell (swingman) as the only two guys I feel really good about.  I think they need to pick at least 3-4 quality and proven arms, including a FA like Tanner Scott or trade target like Devin Williams, Ryan Helsley, (heck, even Jansen again on a one-year deal) to be the closer. 

I aim for bullpen of:  Criswell (Swingman), Guerrero, Hendriks, Whitlock, Acquisition, Acquisition, Acquisition, Acquisition (closer).  That would push Penrod, Winckowski, Weissert to AAA, which would constitute solid depth.  If Fulmer shows well, maybe he takes one of the acquisition slots, but they'll really need to be confident in his recovery as soon as this month, or else they would be better served to replace him with someone else and let him force his way onto the roster in spring training (pushing Guerrero back down to AAA).  Injuries are bound to occur, too, so 1-2 of the projected active roster arms are likely gonna need to be backfilled by the likes of Guerrero / Penrod anyway. The point is our current BP situation is not good and AAA depth remains very poor.  This unit needs a massive investment, and it sounds like CB is committed to that.

I suppose for me it's his consistency.  He started strong (12IP: .259 wOBA, 1.50 ERA), then he imploded (44.2 IP: .350 wOBA, 5.19 ERA), but rebounded with a strong Aug/Sep (16.2 IP: .247 wOBA, 0.00 ERA).  Even in the final months (when he didn't give up any ER) some alarming peripherals (with ranking out of 191 pitchers):  39% hard hit rate (130), 5.94 K/9 (182), 3.66 xFIP (88).  The Aug/Sep counting stats look strong, but his hard hit% went from 30% to 39% and his K/9 went from 9 to under 6.  Makes me wonder how strong his finishing kick really was, which makes me worry that he's more like the summer Weissert than the spring Weissert.  One other tidbit, he allowed the 13th most inherited runners to score of all pitchers with 65 or fewer innings, so maybe he just needs to start innings.  I suppose he could be a back of the bullpen type, but I'd rather stash him in AAA for depth.

Fair points. I guess I'd say that if he were just the guy he was when he was going great he'd be Emmanuel Clase. But when you get down to the 5th or 6th guy in the bullpen, precious few are the teams that have wartless options.

Criswell is out of options and was more than good enough for them to keep around for cheap to see if he can replicate his 2024 so he is almost a sure thing to be in the bullpen unless he takes the 5th SP slot which seems unlikely to me. Honestly when it comes to Guerrero/Weissert/Penrod, I'd be perfectly happy sending one of them to AAA and bringing in a 3rd solid BP arm this offseason. Something like sign Scott, trade for Devin Williams/Heisley/name any other high leverage BP arm on a team looking to shed payroll and maybe bring Martin back or sign someone like Estevez, Holmes etc. 3 may be overkill but I have a hard time banking on Hendriks or Whitlock for anything. There's no such thing as too many BP arms. 

Fwiw, Breslow went on Bradford's podcast after we recorded just this and said they need to "rebuild the bullpen." Probably got the idea from us but on the off chance it's a coincidence, he at least agrees. (I'm not necessarily saying they need ALL new guys to go with Hendriks, Slaten, and Guerrero, but this isn't a group where I see them only needing one or maybe two arms either.)


You are much more confident in Whitlock, Weissert, Booser and Winckowski than I am.

Not that I don't think Criswell could make it, but he's a longman only and I don't know if I want to just have a guy for that specific use. Five times this season he pitched two innings or less and two of them went well... it's not impossible, but I just don't see it. Maybe he's traded for cash considerations or something, idk.

I think Weissert/Penrod could start in AAA if you bring in better options, I just don't know if they go out and get those guys to fill up the back of the pen this year? There's some solid cheap lefties available, like AJ Minter according to Spotrac is projected at 2y/5.4m... which if that is truly what he gets, than I would sign him in a heartbeat to replace Penrod's spot, and then Weissert, if you could find a guy who can pitch like three-four innings but also be a good one-two inning guy that would be great, I don't know who that necessarily is... Ryan Yarborough?